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January 3, 2005
Bowl Predictions, Sugar Bowl
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (6) vs. Virginia Tech (13)
Tommy Tuberville didn't expect to be playing in the Sugar Bowl this time last season. As the Auburn administration was gunning for a replacement and even interviewing candidates, Tuberville was trying to figure out what to do after the season ended. Auburn's season was supposed to have been last year. They were ranked high in the polls going into the season. And yet, they proceeded to fall on their faces, including a drubbing by eventual National Co-Champion USC on a nationally televised game. That was when Tuberville thought he might be in trouble.
Despite a New Year's Eve win over Wisconsin in the Music City Bowl last season, Auburn managed to defeat just one team which ended up ranked in the final poll. Yet, Tuberville was back at the helm this year for the Tigers. They came into the season ranked and though they were thought to be good, no one expected them to finish 12-0 and SEC champions. That was a title reserved for Georgia. Still, Auburn pulled it off, and did so in such an impressive fashion that they earned coach Tuberville a contract extension worth $16 million. However, left out of the National Championship game, they are going to have to settle for a glimmer of hope that something strange happens to put that #1 next to their name. Yes, the evil BCS system cost Auburn its chance at glory and a chance for SEC teams to repeat as the National Champs. Don't think that will discourage Auburn from playing all out in the Sugar Bowl. They are ready and determined to win, and win big to leave nothing to chance. They have all the tools to do just that. They enter the game with the best scoring defense in the country, allowing just 11.2 points per game. They gave up 20 or more points just twice this season, against Arkansas and Tennessee in the SEC title game. Put that together with their smash mouth offense and you have the recipe for a big day. Auburn is led on the field by its pair of all star backs, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, and Ronnie Brown. Williams, a 5'11" senior, ran for 1104 yards this season for his second straight year over 1000. He also scored 12 touchdowns rushing and one through the air to lead the team. And don't be surprised if he throws one also. He did just that this year. Brown, a 6'1" senior, played the second option role well, grabbing 845 yards himself and totaling 9 touchdowns. Together they form a tandem that leaves teams spinning. The Tigers also feature senior quarterback Jason Campbell. Campbell improved on last season's numbers and he can credit that in part to very much improved play of his offensive line. Last season, in the first two games, he was sacked 13 times, and 25 times overall. This season, that was down to 11 for the whole year. He threw for 2511 yards and 19 touchdowns while completing almost 70% of his passes. Look for him to hit Ronnie Brown coming out of the backfield, or aim for receivers Courtney Taylor and Devin Aromashodo. Auburn brings in enough firepower to put points on the board against anyone. If their defense holds, this one could be theirs.
Virginia Tech and Frank Beamer played Beamer ball all season and managed to turn a team that was picked for the middle of the ACC into the conference champions in its first season in the league. Don't expect the same flash you saw when Michael Vick was the quarterback in Blacksburg. Instead, this team features a tough defense and a competent offense which lead them to a 10-2 record. The Hokies were almost as good as Auburn in the scoring defense category, giving up only 12.6 points per game. They held opponents to 267 yards per game, good enough to be 4th in Division 1. You can credit their special teams for a lot of their glory. Frank Beamer's teams know how to block kicks so don't be surprised if a punt or field goal attempt by Auburn suddenly turns in the opposite direction off the hands of someone like Jim Davis for a score tonight. The kick attack will definitely be a test for the Auburn punt protection. On offense, ACC offensive player of the year, Bryan Randall will lead the attack. The senior quarterback brings many of the skills that Vick once did, but he looks a little different when he does it. He throws the ball more than Vick ever did, and is now the all time passing yardage leader for Virginia Tech. He threw for almost 2000 yards and 19 scores this season. He also ran for 466 more yards, good enough for third on the team. He doesn't have the moves that Vick once displayed. As a result, he gets hit for a loss more, giving defenses credit for the "sack" 34 times this season. If Randall doesn't run the ball himself, look for him to hand off to Mike Imoh, who has breakaway speed. The junior ran for 704 yards this season, after missing the first three games of the year. His best effort came against North Carolina, when he went for 243 yards and two touchdowns. He didn't play much over the final three games of the season due to a nagging hamstring injury which makes him questionable for the bowl game. If he doesn't go, then the rushing duties fell on junior Cedric Humes. Humes filled in well for Imoh but lacks the same speed factor.
Virginia Tech plays a tough game. If they can force Auburn into enough mistakes, they have a chance to win. Otherwise, Auburn has too much on the line with this game to give in easily to the Hokies. Look for it to be closer than you would expect but the Tigers to come out on top.
MRI Predicts: Auburn Confidence factor: 76.71%, 22 out of 28
Posted by bmiraski at January 3, 2005 12:10 PM
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