MRISports.com: Couch Musings - January 20th, 2006

January 20, 2006

The couch has been getting a lot of work this week. Here are five thoughts for you from the last few days.

Look out for North Carolina State. Despite the loss to Duke on Wednesday night, the Wolfpack is finally breaking through to the top of the ACC standings. If there wasn't a guy named Shelden Williams playing for Duke, North Carolina State would boast maybe the best big man in the ACC. Sophomore Cedric Simmons dominated the inside against the Blue Devils despite the presence of Williams and finished with a game high 28 points and 9 rebounds. He also threw up Williams-like numbers with seven blocks. Considering he got no help from fellow big man Ilian Evtimov, that is highly impressive. Oh, and as I mentioned, he is only a sophomore. Sitting at 3-2 in conference, the season could turn on how well the Wolfpack plays against Wake Forest on Saturday night. If Simmons shows up like he did against Duke, they may have nothing to worry about.

Florida stepped out of conference and played Savannah State on Wednesday night. While I haven't checked the numbers, this could possibly the most lopsided game in the history of the MRI based on the predictions. How do I figure? Since I have begun tracking the performance of the MRI in predicting games, there have been 91 games beyond the point where the formula predicts 100% chance of winning the game. That point is established using a formula comparing the two team's MRIs and rests at a formula result of 14. The game between Florida and Savannah State registered a 19.5 from the formula which I am confident to say is probably the highest rating of those 91 games. The Gators won by 51 points, but don't expect to see those results skewing the MRI just yet. Savannah State has yet to win a ball game at the Division 1 level and Florida is yet to lose which leaves the rated margin of victory applied to this game for both squads is a big zero. Now that Florida has had its fun, they get back to business against a team that should give them a little tougher test, Tennessee, on Saturday. Savannah State continues to look for its first D-1 victory in the first of a two game set against Longwood on Saturday. Just in case you are wondering, Longwood has an 82% chance of winning this one. The best chance for Savannah State this season? A home game against The Citadel on February 22nd. The Tigers right now have a 25% chance of pulling that one off.

People thought Dave Leitao was crazy for leaving DePaul and taking the job at Virginia. Maybe that thought will start to change if the Cavaliers continue to play like they did on Thursday night against North Carolina. Virginia dealt the Tar Heels their second straight conference loss and made them look very much like the young team that they are. The Cavs played very tough defense and to the best of their ability, kept North Carolina shooting from outside, which didn't work out too well for the team in Carolina blue. They ended up shooting 36% from the field, well below their average of 47%. Virginia is now 3-2 in the ACC and sitting in 4th place, somewhere no one thought they would be at the beginning of the season. If they keep up the tough defense, they can continue to prove the predictions wrong. Meanwhile, North Carolina better figure out how to fix what is wrong quickly. Everyone knew the season would be tough with the young team, but no one expected it to go downhill so quickly once the ACC season started. The Tar Heels travel to Florida State on Sunday night, a tough game against an upstart Seminoles team. Looks like the ACC will look a lot different after the weekend.

No offense to those in the state of North Carolina who believe that they have the best rivalry in college sports, but the best basketball rivalry over the past 4 or five years has been in the city of Cincinnati with Xavier and the University of Cincinnati. Despite the departure of Bob Huggins, last night was no different. While Huggins watched from the stands, the game went back and forth. Xavier's lack of consistent free throw shooting hurt them near the end as they missed the front end of consecutive one and one foul shot opportunities. That was all it took to allow Jihad Muhammad to sink the tying three point basket at the end of regulation. In overtime, the Musketeers again had trouble with foul shooting but did just enough to hold on at the defensive end and beat the Bearcats. Cincinnati has now lost three in a row starting with a loss to Connecticut when they lost Armein Kirkland. In the new tough Big East, they can't afford to have that losing streak go on too much longer.

This was a good week to be named Marcus Williams. First, Connecticut's Williams had a huge game against Syracuse to keep the Huskies near the top of the standings in the tough Big East. Now, Arizona's Williams stepped up big at the right time to help Arizona down Stanford late on Thursday. It took going to overtime, but Williams hit key baskets at the right time while scoring 22 points to help the Wildcats hold down the Cardinal who had erased an 11 point halftime deficit. Arizona narrowly avoided losing three straight games for the first time in over 440 games, the longest streak in the league. Had Stanford not botched their final possession with time running down in regulation, that streak would have been over. Instead, overtime went Arizona's way and gave them the victory. Arizona's defense allowed the other team to shoot for over 50% for the third straight game, a statistic that will not bode well for the Wildcats going forward.

Posted by bmiraski at January 20, 2006 12:30 PM

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.mrisports.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/192