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January 16, 2006
Injuries and Returns
Injuries have begun to plague teams trying to compete this year. UCLA, Indiana, and Duke have all been hit. Some of them actually thought they were going to get their injured players back, only to see them go back down again, some for good. While all this is happening, Randolph Morris came back to Kentucky. Not that it did them any good.
You would think that a team needing inside help would have welcomed back the inside presence of Morris with open arms. Tubby Smith contended that nothing was wrong with his team to begin with and that Morris would only make the Wildcats better. It is too bad the results have shown differently.
Prior to Morris's return, the leading rebounder for Kentucky was guard Rajon Rondo. Rondo is 6'1" and is lucky if the 171 pounds he is listed at is true. This is not the kind of Wildcat team we were used to seeing. They lost at Kansas, which really exposed the inside problems and totally took away any scoring effort from the Cats. In the loss at Kansas, Smith had in one year, the two worst losses of his career as a coach.
Morris should have been a godsend. 6'10", the middle should have finally been secure with the guards left to roam the outside and fire at will.
"Bring Vanderbilt to town. They can't win at Rupp Arena. Sure, they are improved from what we would expect from a Vanderbilt team, but this is Kentucky. This is Rupp Arena. We have back our inside man."
And yet, the unthinkable happened. Vanderbilt won and almost shut out the inside game that Morris was supposed to provide. Other than his 10 points and seven boards, the Wildcats looked lost, leading Smith to have to pull the entire starting line-up early in the game.
"No worries though. Alabama is coming. We can beat Alabama. We usually beat them at home. This shouldn't be a problem."
However, it was a problem. Smith started a larger lineup including Morris and managed to win a contest on the boards. It was too bad that the defense left a lot to be desired. For only the fourth time in 82 games, Kentucky allowed a team to shoot over 50% from the field and that ultimately did them in. Not even 19 points from Morris was going to be enough to compete with that.
So what does this mean for Kentucky? No longer ranked and for good reason, there is a lot wrong in Lexington that hasn't been wrong there is a while. The conference season is just starting and Kentucky has not been lucky with the draw so far, but losing both games at home is a scary trend. They can overcome 0-2. The SEC is down enough this year that there are wins there but their road has gotten tougher. They now have to get back that win against Vandy at Vandy. They don't play Alabama again and that should have been a win at home.
Their next game is against Georgia on the road. Late last season, the Wildcats had to struggle to beat a Georgia team with a lot less talent than Kentucky. Georgia is playing well this season at 11-5 and despite a 1-2 conference record, they may have had the toughest run so far, playing Florida and at Tennessee. Levi Stukes and the rest of the very good guards for the Bulldogs can give Kentucky fits. If Morris can be stopped inside, this could come down to a game of who shoots better from the floor. And even then, if they let Morris score, we have seen from the Alabama game that Kentucky can be taken.
Kentucky can still make a season of this. At 10-6, they don't have the resume that they normally have to be considered an easy run to the tournament. The SEC season is going to make or break this team for the first time in a long time and there is a possibility for the first time in a while that Kentucky may not break even in conference. The conference is going to treat Kentucky like sharks treat blood in the water. They are going to zone in and take advantage any way they can. Don't be surprised to see an 0-3 start for Kentucky and at some point to see them 6-6 in conference. Given the end of the conference schedule, that might be as good as it gets.
Quick Hits for the Week:
- I am not yet sold on Gonzaga. For the first time in the last few years, this is not a team. It is Adam Morrison surrounded by four guys who make less mistakes than the other team. Sure, some of those players step up, maybe one per game. The team still remains focused around Morrison and without him, they are going to struggle and there are ways to beat them. And they have been beaten this year. Teams are not going to be surprised by the Zags any longer. The game against Santa Clara last Monday was almost a shocker for Gonzaga and the Broncos gave them a game by removing J.P. Batista from the mixture. Before the Zags get to the NCAA tournament (and they will because they should win their conference), they need to find a way to win on a night when Morrison doesn't lead the team. It will happen. We have seen it happen before -- Tim Duncan and Wake Forest, The Kenyon Martin-less Cincinnati team. Morrison will have a target on his back and chances are, teams in the tournament are going to have pretty good aim.
- I was almost ready to welcome Kansas back to the Top 25 this week in the MRI. And then they stumbled against Kansas State... at home! The same home court that they soundly defeated Kentucky on a week earlier. I am not sure what to think of the Jayhawks yet. They are a young team but the youth has started and played half their season together. This should have been a team coming together, not a team that is on the verge of coming apart. Tonight's game against Missouri should go a long way towards saying what the season will be like in Lawrence the rest of the way. Maybe we should prepare early for a Kansas-Kentucky match in the NIT...
- Indiana is without D.J. White indefinitely and that should cause concern. With him, he provided a second option inside to take away some of the pressure from Marco Killingsworth. Killingsworth is good but he can not patrol the inside all by himself and it was evident against Michigan State in the Hoosier loss. Michigan State was able to rotate a solid set of big men inside against him and despite his 27 points, he was neutralized inside. He finished with one rebound which came early in the game and the pressure inside caused him to turn the ball over 5 times. Granted Michigan State has a deeper bench inside than most teams that Indiana will see in the Big Ten. They will still find trouble when a team can post two good big men against Killingsworth. Look for Illinois to cause them some problems on Tuesday.
- Speaking of Indiana, there are two things that are starting to bother me about coverage of games and both happened in their game against Michigan State.
- The first I blame on coaches. That is letting injured players be interviewed during a game. DJ White was interviewed by the sideline reporter during a timeout and then the interview continued on into the game action. While it was obvious that White was not going to play, this can only be a distraction to a team and the other players. This leads me to believe in a lack of discipline by the coaching staff. Notice that you don't see this allowed at most of the top programs in the country. Coach K would never allow an injured player to be interviewed. I guarantee you that Jim Boeheim wouldn't. Yet, for some reason Mike Davis did allow this. Maybe the Hoosier alumni are right to call for his departure.
- The second item is projecting teams as locks for the NCAA tournament. Both Michigan State and Indiana were projected as locks for the tournament by the game's announcers. At the time, Michigan State was 0-2 in conference and with the strength of the Big Ten, they were looking at a long road. Indiana had just lost one of their top players for who knows how long and we had no idea how the team was going to respond. Projecting any team as a lock this early in the conference season is a mistake. We have seen teams who have great pre-conference runs, such as Iowa, and then totally blow up when it comes to Big Ten play. Last season, Michigan was looking like a lock until they forgot how to play for the final third of their season. No team is a lock right now and no team will be a lock until half of the conference season is over. Until that time, announcers and writers should remember that there is a lot of basketball left to play and stranger things have happened.
- I thought this would be the last week for Missouri State in the MRI Top 25, especially after their crushing at the hands of the Shockers of Wichita State. Yet, they remain. Since the MRI started, only one team that was in the MRI Top 25 on Selection Sunday has not made the tournament. That bodes well for the Bears if they can stay there. The MVC definitely is playing like they deserve multiple bids this season, maybe three should the play remain as good as it has been. Missouri State may very well lead that group.
- Last, it took a 15-2 record before Syracuse got ranked this season. Good to know that the polls are still up to their craziness.
Posted by bmiraski at January 16, 2006 5:30 PM
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