« Vince Young, Testing Giant | Main | NIT Clinchers »
February 28, 2006
Couch Musings - February 28th, 2006
Conference tournaments in three leagues kick off tonight, setting up the conference championship games with the first automatic bids into the NCAA tournament. Here are a couple of thoughts before these games.
- While they didn't win, you can't get down much on Oklahoma State's effort last night against Oklahoma. A close game for most of the contest, Oklahoma needed a late run and then some foul shot misses by Oklahoma State to even have a chance in this game. The normally excellent foul shooting of the Cowboys left them in the final minutes and that was all Oklahoma need to get their chance. A late foul call along the sideline with 0.6 seconds remaining gave Oklahoma two shots for the win and Terrell Everett hit them both. Since Sean Sutton has taken over for his father who is on leave, the Cowboys are 2-3. One of those wins though was a blowout against Texas. Games like last night and the Texas contest should give the Cowboys hope for a run deep into the Big XII tournament and perhaps at least a shot at some post-season play.
- Conversations with some friends over the weekend had me down on both West Virginia and Pittsburgh, despite their play in the Big East. While others were picking them as their outside chances to upset the top five or six teams in college basketball, I was on the opposite side. Last night's game between the two didn't have me doubting that feeling.
Pittsburgh has consistently gone away in big games over the last two months. Sure, it was the Big East season, but that is where you have to prove yourself as one of the top teams. Otherwise, come March, there may not be a chance to prove yourself. Last night, the Panthers were cold from the field and the tough defense they had against West Virginia in their first match was gone. If you look at this Panther team and move them a couple of points in the other direction from where they are now, you have Notre Dame, a team with very little chance of even making the Big East tournament (Two wins by the Irish to finish the season and they should be in but it still might take a tie breaker).
West Virginia has consistently underplayed their high RPI rating (#23 according to CollegeRPI.com) all season. Their marquis win outside of conference is Oklahoma and they already have losses on their record from Texas, Kentucky, and LSU, all teams they should be competing with in the tournament. They have beaten Villanova in their only meeting, which should look good on their resume. Otherwise, against their conference, their record should be a little suspect. They barely survived a Cincinnati team that has played well, but the Moutaineers won when the Bearcats did not have Armein Kirkland. They have just managed to squeak by Louisville and now Pittsburgh in their last two games and neither has been pretty. Outside of the Villanova victory, the best feat they can claim in conference is a sweep of Georgetown, a dangerous team, but not one that is ready to challenge for an NCAA title, let alone the Big East crown.
So where does that leave West Virginia come March? Let's wait and see, but some team will throw together a great perimeter defense to limit the Mountaineers and force them to try and come inside with the ball. Then, it will be up to Kevin Pittsnogle to try and live up to the hype he generated around himself in last year's tournament. We already saw them fail at this against Syracuse just a week ago. The Orange held West Virginia without a free throw attempt thanks to their hesitancy to go inside against the 2-3 zone defense. A combination of great guard defense and a big center in the middle should be able to take out West Virginia. Don't be surprised if the Mountaineers are gone early, perhaps by the second round.
- Two words for how much the loss of Matt Trannon hurts Michigan State until his jaw is healed enough for him to play: A lot. Every loss the Spartans take at this point in the season costs them a spot in the S-Curve used to seed teams in the tournament. Two losses and counting since his departure, things don't get easier with Wisconsin and Illinois on the schedule. Four losses in a row plus an unknown Big Ten tournament result could have the Spartans dropping at least 2 bracket lines from where they were just a week ago (Potential 3 or 4 seed with a chance to play in Auburn Hills).
- Dick Bennett is stepping down at Washington State come the end of the season. Despite his success with a tough pressure defense, I was never that impressed with the offense that Bennett ran and his team always seemed one small run by the opposition away from losing. While you can't complain much when your team is winning games, you can when they start to lose them and get embarrassed doing it. Other than two inexplicable wins against Washington, the offense for the Cougars this season has been, well, offensive. Three times this season, Bennett's Cougars have failed to top the 40 point mark and scored only 41 in a loss to Cal recently. If that wasn't bad enough, the Cougars actually had a game where they scored only 29 points last year. Bennett will likely be replaced on the bench by his son Tony, a current assistant coach. It is believed that Tony will run a game with a little more offensive power to it. There is still no word on whether he will sing "Rags to Riches" at his first press conference.
- Current MRI leaders in the conferences who tournaments begin today and sleeper to pull the upset:
- Big South - Leader: Winthrop, Sleeper team: Coastal Carolina (Swept Winthrop this season and winners of their last 10 games. Plus they have one of the cooler mascot logos)
- Horizon - Leader: Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Sleeper team: Butler (Need to win only two games for title. Split season series with UW-M)
- Ohio Valley - Leader: Murray State, Sleeper team: Tennessee State (Get through the first game against Samford and this team, who a few seasons ago was falling apart, will have some serious momentum. Winners of 5 of 6 going into tournament. Only loss in that time to Murray State)
- Tournament simulations were again run on the latest Tournament Projections. There is a definite advantage to being one of the top ranked teams at this point. Only one of the top 8 did not make it through the first 25 tournament runs to the Final Eight showdown that I do. Villanova was passed by Florida in that regard. In the final 50 simulations run with the top 8 teams from the first round, the big winner was MRI #2, Duke. The Blue Devils finished with 16 tournament wins and 10 second place finishes. Finishing close behind was the #1 MRI team, Texas. The Longhorns won 12 tournaments sims while also finishing second 10 times. Of the final eight, the lone team without a sim championship was Florida, the only team to pull an upset to get into the final bracket. Notes from the sim:
- Most Final Fours in the 25 sims by a non-Top 6 conference team: tie between Bradley and George Mason with two each in the Oakland Region.
- Most surprising team to make a Final Four: Oral Roberts, a #15 seed in the Washington D.C. Bracket with Duke, who needed a string of upsets to eventually come out of that bracket
- Regions with the most teams making the Final Four: Atlanta, GA and Oakland, CA. Both had half of teams score at least one Final Four berth.
- Most dominant team in their bracket: Duke reached 11 of the 25 sim final fours (a sign of what was to come in the final 50)
- Connecticut again lost 10 Finals match-ups out of the 50 Elite Eight sims. The Huskies did manage four victories this time, showing that they are moving ever closer to the top three teams in the MRI who again dominated the numbers.
Posted by bmiraski at February 28, 2006 12:00 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.mrisports.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/211
Comments
You have no idea what you are talking about. Do you watch college basketball? Your arguments about Marquette are radiculous. Besides the top teams in the country, most teams do not perform well on the road this season. Getting a bye in the big east tournament and going 10-6 in what is arguably the best conference in the country.
Posted by: Anonymous Hater at March 6, 2006 9:38 PM
#1: I normally don't publish anonymous comments. If you don't have enough guts to leave your name even, then why should I take you seriously? At least commenters like Mike, Jim, and some others have left either their name or an email. But...
#2: Do I watch college basketball? Have you read anything on this site other than noticing Marquette missing from the projections? Do you know what factors go into my rating system? Do you know what the original goal of the rating system was and that the tournament projections were a fun thing to do on the side USING ONLY THE MRI NUMBERS?
No, you don't know that. I can only figure that because you posted this comment on an article where I don't even mention Marquette. You probably haven't read more than the two tournament projections that you have railed on about, and I doubt you even looked at the "About the MRI" posting that I have been directing people to.
And your comeback on the road record of Marquette is to say that they are just like every other team? Gee, that is insightful. Maybe I should include other teams that are just like every other team in some category. Let's see, Marquette is an average rebounding team, should I include them because of that? Or should I include them because they are average at forcing turnovers compared to their opponents and the rest of the league? Should I fudge the data to make them look better because they got to 10-6 in the Big East? No. I haven't done it before and I won't do it now.
At least another commenter found another bad road team that I have ranked highly.
But not you.
And you can't spell.
Thanks for stopping by...
Posted by: Ben Miraski
at March 7, 2006 9:34 AM
