I would like to thank everyone from the Creighton message boards that have clicked over in the last day or so.

While I know some of what I have in the projections may seem strange, you may want to click over and read "About the MRI" to understand my ranking system, or even just the disclaimer that I have at the top of the projections this week.

And while I may be a loon for what I have in my rankings, I will reiterate something that I posted on the Colonial message boards last week. The MRI has consistently done well in projecting how far into the NCAA tournament a team will go once it makes the field. And it hasn't done too shabby with projecting the field itself.

As for George Mason or Missouri State getting a high seed, I think it would be a tragedy if at least one mid-major squad outside of Gonzaga, Memphis, and GW did not receive a top 5 seed in some bracket. Maybe that team will be Wichita State, who right now seems to have the inside track for the highest seed among the rest of the projected field.

I am not alone in the opinion that a loss for Creighton in the first game of the Missouri Valley tournament against Bradley would most likely mean the end of their tournament hopes. I hope no doubt that the loss would knock them below whatever the cut-off number will be in the MRI for making the tournament field and that they would be left on the outside.

To the one person from the message boards who read more than just this article, I thank you. To the ones that think I am a loon, at least you got enough entertainment out of the link to send others my way. I hope you all enjoy what you find.

Yo, I called it! Northwestern State as a #15, right where they belong. GW is gonna lose in the first round of the conference tourney, probably to Dayton, and end up with a #6. No Pops = No Hops for the Colonials. Word.

About you not doing to shabby in projecting the field of 65. I can guarantee you have at least 6 teams in your projection that arent going to make nor would they make it if the tourny started tonight. I think you need to redo your little formula. And no, no other mid-major other then Gonzaga, GW, or Memphis will not get a 5 or higher. Theres no chance whatsoever.

Xavier, Maryland, Clemson, Louisville, Air Force, and at least one of the 5 MVC teams will not make the tourny. You will be way off this year my friend.

Where is WVU in your projections, not in the bracket or the last four out. Horrible, just horrible.

You are a moron. Your seeds are way off and you don't even have teams like Alabama or Marquette in the tourney! Washington a 2 seed??? Syracuse a 7? Clemson in the field? give it up and let the real pros do this. This site is a complete waste of time.

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

Just look how far you are off compared to everyone else.

Brandon-

Let's talk about my seeds. If you would read the disclaimer at the top, as I directed those from the Creighton message boards to do, you would see how I get to my seeds.

But let's explore a little more. If you think I am way off, what do you think that Washington should be? If you check out the Bracket Project website, you will see that rankings for Washington range from a #2 (mine) down to a #9. There is no consensus on where the team should fall, and Washington is close to dropping in my tournament projections even lower based on their performance and the performance of others beneath them.

Syracuse at a #7? Checking the same site, Syracuse projections range from a #7 down to a #12. Their RPI is 28. If you divide 28 by 4 what do you get? 7. Pretty close to around what they may eventually end up with, though tonight's really big loss to DePaul won't help. Chances are we will see them down around a #9 or #10 when it is all done with, something that will probably happen when the next rankings are released by me.

And Clemson... If you would have read the full article, you would see why they popped into the rankings this week. And the win against Virginia Tech earlier this week actually dropped them further in the rankings than they were on Sunday night. They will be out, don't worry.

Alabama? They are considered a bubble team by almost everyone I have read. They are either just barely making the tournament or just missing it. I have them missing it. I wouldn't consider that omission to be terrible.

Marquette? Let's look at them a little closer. Marquette is currently #77 in my rankings (oh, and by the way, they just lost to Louisville, Ohio Jock Jim, if you come back). Their road record? Not spectacular, at 4-7. Their wins came against Oral Roberts, Seton Hall, DePaul, and Notre Dame. Seton Hall may be the best win of those four, and really the only potential tournament team. They don't rebound well, at an overall deficit to their opponents, and they turn the ball over more than their foes.

The interesting thing is that they win by a significant margin enough that if it weren't for their average performance in those categories, they might be up there with a Cincinnati or West Virginia. So, am I wrong to be missing Marquette? Not really, if you read the way I choose these teams.

Give it two weeks. Let's wait and see how far off I am, and then how well a team like Marquette actually does in the tournament, should they make it.

I think if you take a second look at that site Brandon, you will see that there is very little agreement beyond the first six teams or so. After that, it is a free for all.

My projections should converge on the final a week from now when the real bracket is announced. And the discrepancies? They will be the reason that there are upsets in the tournament. Look for highly rated MRI teams to come through with the big wins that no one is expecting.

"Xavier, Maryland, Clemson, Louisville, Air Force, and at least one of the 5 MVC teams will not make the tourny. You will be way off this year my friend."

Oh Alex, Alex, Alex.

#1: Air Force is my pick for the Mountain West tournament winner. And if they don't make it, then San Diego State will. And actually San Diego State moved ahead of them based on their win last night, so that winner keeps changing. Name one bracketologist who counts their projected winners in the conference tournaments against their records. You can't, because none do. They all wait until those 31 teams are decided and only base their losses on the 34 at large teams.

#2 Clemson: Already commented on them. I know they shouldn't be there. They won't be after Sunday. They won't be next Sunday.

#3 Xavier: Xavier isn't just one of the better performing teams in the Atlantic 10 this season, they should compete now for the automatic bid, especially with Pops no longer in the picture for GW in the conference tournament. Will they make it on an at-large resume, probably not. Will they hang where they are in the rankings for another week or so? Depends on how that Atlantic 10 tournament goes.

#4 and #5: Maryland and Louisville. Picking on my last four teams in? These teams should be gone in a week. Maryland has already fallen this week to the point where they will most likely be gone. Louisville continues to hang based on their win against Marquette. The game against Connecticut will go a long way towards determining if Louisville even has a sliver of a chance. If they win against the Huskies, they will play in the Big East tournament and anything can happen there. If they lose, chances are, they may be sitting at home next week instead of in New York.

Let's see what things look like on Monday and then talk again.

Mark-

If you read my Couch Musings from February 28th, you will see my thoughts on West Virginia.

Do I know they will be in the final bracket? Yes, I do. Have they performed in games at the dominant level that other teams have? No.

They currently sit at #62 in my rankings. This is mostly because they are outrebounded by over 10 boards a game. The first time they come up against a team with a big inside presence and great guard defense (like I said in Couch Musings), they will be gone from the bracket.

Can they win a first round game? Probably, since they will likely face a team from a smaller conference who is much smaller. Will they get much further? Depends on the match-up, but this team is definitely not as good as they have been made out to be.

Look at my prediction from my rankings of January 30th when I said they were in for heartache in the Big East despite their undefeated conference record at the time. And what happened? The Mountaineers took a spill and have kept spilling over the second half of the conference season.

My prediction now: An early exit for West Virginia in both the Big East and NCAA tournaments.

You have got to be kidding me with this trash. Marquette's RPI is at 20 right now. Everyone has them solidly into the tournament, and rightfully so. Did you see them beat UConn? Georgetown? Pitt? How about when they went into Pitt and Nova and took them down to the wire? And you forgot to mention the win in Alaska over a decent South Carolina team. One loss in OT to a desperate UL team shows their weakness. Right. Get a clue.

I am guessing that Warrior actually goes to Marquette, but since he didn't leave an email address, there is no way to be sure.

So to answer your question, no I have not seen Marquette play. Why? Because they haven't been on a television station that I actually get more than twice. And those two times? Once playing in Alaska on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. What was I doing then? Watching football because who would have thought that South Carolina and Marquette was a game to watch. And another time on a Thursday night when I was traveling for work.

So, no, I can't judge this team based on actually seeing them play. But I know the results of those games and we can look at the full resume.

Marquette - currently #75 in the MRI, somewhere around #20 in the RPI.

Ok, let's look at the good. They beat UConn at home for UConn's first loss of the year. 9-6 in the Big East, arguably the toughest conference in Division I. Beat Georgetown and Pittsburgh at home. Best non-conference win: South Carolina on a neutral court.

You want to look a little deeper, into the things that would keep me from voting them into the field? Only a 4-7 (true) road record. This team has trouble winning away from home when the competition is tough. Their best true road win was Seton Hall, and after that, maybe Oral Roberts. I ask, will any of their tournament games, Big East or NCAA, be played in Wisconsin? Nope.

They played tough and lost to Pittsburgh and Villanova on the road? So what? Road losses are just that, losses. Maybe you consider Pittsburgh and Villanova to be hostile environments (Rank up there with Duke, Maryland, Gonzaga), but I don't think they are as tough a place to play as some others.

They beat UConn? Ok, fine. But I have never seen a team get so pumped up for one marquis win on the season. It is like the case of Florida State and Texas A&M this week, only that came two months ago. And Rudy Gay may have had his worst game of the year in the same game that your Steve Novak went berzerk and got 41, by far his greatest output all season. And don't come back with "big players come up big in big games". If that were the case, he should have two or three more performances like that, say like when you lost to West Virginia, Villanova, and Pittsburgh. No, West Virginia only gave him 6, Pittsburgh 8, and Villanova 18. Guess playing on the road doesn't suit Mr. Novak as well.

They beat Pittsburgh at home? OK, fine, but if you would read my comments from earlier this week, you would see that I think that Pittsburgh disappears in all the biggest games they have. And that keeps Pittsburgh from being a true contender for the title this year.

Is South Carolina (13-14 against Division I) still decent? They are better than most teams, but not exactly who I would be trotting out as a major win on a neutral floor. And that is your best non-conference win.

You lost to Winthrop. You lost to Nebraska. You only other chance to get a great win out of conference was against Wisconsin. Now, that could be considered hostile considering the proximity of your schools, but you didn't just lose, you lost by 14.

And then in Big East play, you lose to Louisville and Cincinnati (another team I am getting beat up for). Don't tell me Cincinnati was desperate. It was early in the conference season still. You lost to Rutgers, who was way out of the race when you got to them. And finally, you were blown out by, in my opinion, a vastly overrated West Virginia team.

So what side of the fence do those arguments lie on? Distinctly on the side for not in. Granted, it is a soft bubble year. Can teams get in with less than perfect seasons? Yes. Will Marquette? Probably. Will they lose? Most definitely. Have fun dancing for all of 40 minutes come Thursday, March 16th.

Lastly, I don't do my bracket like everyone else does. If you would read how the teams are selected and then seeded, you would notice that. I am going to have some omissions at this point. And a week from now, those teams might be in, but it will take a performance by that team, not just because they had one great performance against one of the top teams.

Marquette needs to show the MRI something in Madison Square Garden. Then maybe I will give them some credit.

22 Bracket sites out there. 21 have Marquette in the tournament as a 5 seed to a 8 seed. Your bracket is the only one in the nation that doesn't have them in the tournament.

Why?

Jim -

I am going to guess that you hung out way too much with Tommy Boy while he was at Marquette. The "malted hops and bong resin" must be affecting your ability to read the long post that I made five hours before your comment.

Thanks for stopping by...

you have gonzaga as an 8 seed and missouri state as a 5 seed. Is this supposed to be a joke?

So you're actually admitting that Marquette "probably" will be in the NCAA tourney, but your rankings show that they won't?

Maybe you should reconsider how you rank the teams then...there obviously is a flaw.

The fourth place team in the Big East not making the tournament...thanks for the laugh!

Jeff H-

If you will look at the way that I seed the teams, you will see why the teams are seeded the way that they are. No joke.

Mike-

No flaw either. My rankings are intended to rank who are the strongest teams in Division I basketball. Each year, I expect to get somewhere less than four teams wrong in the final rankings when compared to the actual field. I would counter that most of the teams that I project into the field that do not make the actual tournament do fairly well in the NIT, many making the Final Four or winning it. Meanwhile the teams which I do not have making the field rarely make it past their first round games. In many cases, the ones that do are facing another of the teams which I left out.

I would also wager that if you sat in the room on Selection Sunday (and the days before), you would see that there are a number of people who probably don't agree with every team on the board. In this case, I disagree with Marquette, no matter what their Big East stats may show.

Remember, Marquette was not one of the darling television teams this season and therefore, ended with one of the easiest Big East schedules (not having to play the top teams twice). Keep that in mind when you look at their Big East record.

One of the reasons why you don't have Marquette in the tournament is because of their road record.

Yet you have Wisconsin as a four seed with a 2-8 road record (at the time you made your predictions) and their only road wins against Penn St and Minnesota (111 & 70 RPI respectively).

At the time you made these predictions, Marquette received the 26th most votes in the AP poll. It's just hard to fathom why you won't give them credit for their wins like others instead of blaming the teams they lost to.

This site is a joke. The reasons you use to knock down Marquette could be said of a dozen or more teams that you have in your worthless bracket. Yeah, you're the guy who's right and all of the other brackets across the country are wrong. Give it up. You've got Wisconsin at a 4! What about their home loss to 200+ RPI NDSU? You rip MU for not having any road wins, UW's best road win is against Minnesota which is lower RPI-wise than Seton Hall. MU's worst loss was to 110 or so RPI Nebraska on the road--compare to a loss to freaking NDSU at HOME. Get a clue and leave this to the big boys.

Let me remind you that Marquette played Pitt twice and did not have one game against South Florida. Oh, and by the way their strength of schedule is ranked 20 in the RPI

Yes, Marquette did not play South Florida and they did play Pitt twice, but let me clarify what I said before. At the beginning of the season, in order to get the best games on television (or what were thought to be the best games) more often, the Big East schedule was set with the following double matches:

• Connecticut playing twice against Syracuse, Villanova, and Louisville
• Syracuse playing twice against Cincinnati, Villanova, and Connecticut
• Villanova playing twice against Connecticut, Syracuse, and Louisville
• Louisville playing twice against Connecticut, Villanova and Cincinnati

Because of this, I am pretty sure to balance out what even the schedule makers thought was nuts, each of these teams played South Florida.

Who did Marquette play twice? Pittsburgh(Tied for 4th), DePaul(13th), and Notre Dame(11th).

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the tougher Big East schedule. Do you think that if Syracuse had gotten that draw that they would have finished 7-9? Or Louisville at 6-10?

Yes, you have the 19th ranked schedule in the RPI (as of Monday on collegerpi.com), and some form of that schedule strength is factored into the MRI calculations (though not exactly how the RPI calculates it).

But, if you are going to make an argument based purely on RPI schedule strength, then Maryland should get a pass. They had the 12th hardest schedule. Or maybe I should throw St. Joe's up there. They played the 24th hardest schedule and no one is even talking about them. Or you know what, maybe I am too hard on the Big East. After all, DePaul played the 15th hardest schedule in Division I and didn't make the Big East tournament. Let's just put them on the bubble for fun.

My system evaluates a number of factors, some weighted more highly than others. Schedule strength factors in, but you also have to win games and prove that you are not just playing at the level of your opponents, but surpassing it by a good margin night after night.

And by the way, for Chris, Wisconsin has the 7th hardest schedule, and yes, Marquette's road record is better than that. Even with the loss to NDSU, which Wisconsin was punished for in my numbers, they still had a tougher road to go through than Marquette. And winning on the road in Minnesota was not an easy thing to do this year. Heck, winning on the road in the Big Ten was not an easy thing to do this year.