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MRI2005: Tournament Projection #5
February 27, 2006 | By Benjamin Miraski
It never fails. There is always at least one team that sneaks in that even I know has no business being in the Tournament projections. Last week, that team was Oklahoma State, thanks to its massive win over what, at the time, was MRI #1 Texas.
This week, Clemson is the team with no business being around. They have hung around just out of the tournament once they fell like a stone in conference. The loss of James Mays left them without a definite inside presence and the rest has been history (Before you shout "Akin Akingbala", Mays is still the Tiger's leader in rebounds per game despite not having played in the last 16 contests). However, a big win over tournament hopeful Virginia, and the Tigers are right back in it. Exactly how dominant was the win? Clemson was rolling up numbers that they haven't reached since 1969 and won the game by their largest margin against an ACC foe since 2000.
But how does a single victory like this propel the Tigers into the field? Better ask the other bubble teams who continue to struggle with no one team asserting itself. The only team that has made a big move from out to in over the past weeks has been Bradley and they have shot up the rankings to the Top 25. Teams like Seton Hall, UTEP, UAB, and Miami, have all lingered, never winning by much to distance themselves from the pack. All that is prime for a big move like Clemson's. Can they hold on? Most likely, the answer to that is no, and in all likelihood, Clemson would need an improbable win in the ACC tournament to actually make the field. However, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are both winnable games. Chances are that they will not win both and will drop back down in the MRI. The real question will be what other MRI bubble team replaces them.
Check out all the field of 65 in the fifth MRI Tournament Projection.
Last week, my Tournament Projection received a view links and posts on message boards around Division 1. While I am thankful for the publicity from those who somehow found my little corner of the basketball world, I was shocked by the reaction. So, as a result, I am adding back in the disclaimer this week that I used to tag all of the tournament projections with.
Disclaimer: I just go by my numbers, starting at the Top of the MRI and working down until all the at-large spots are filled. All current MRI leaders in the 31 conferences are also accounted for. If your conference is slated to have only one bid and your team has not distinguished itself in any way, you will be slotted to the bottom of the S-curve, behind the at-large participants. This is how a team like Bucknell with an MRI ranking of 29 still ends up with a 12 seed. I follow all seeding rules to the best of my ability. The only rules I am somewhat lax in are for not repeating regular season games or previous tournament match-ups. With the number of teams projected to get in from the Big East, Big Ten, and possibly, the SEC and MVC, this will be very difficult for even the tournament committee to do. I know this is far from what the actual bracket will look like come Selection Sunday, and I am sure that my bracket will look a lot different then also. Enjoy this for what you will.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – Washington, D.C. | |||||
| Greensboro, NC | |||||
| #1 | Duke | #16 | AMERICA EAST: Albany | ||
| #8 | Gonzaga | #9 | Arkansas | ||
| Auburn Hills, MI | |||||
| #5 | Missouri State | #12 | PATRIOT: Bucknell | ||
| #4 | Wisconsin | #13 | SUNBELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| Jacksonville, FL | |||||
| #3 | Florida | #14 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| #6 | Colorado | #11 | Creighton | ||
| Philadelphia, PA | |||||
| #7 | Arizona | #10 | Michigan | ||
| #2 | Villanova | #15 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| South Region – Atlanta, GA | |||||
| Dallas, TX | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | NORTHEAST: Central Conn. St | ||
| #8 | Wichita State | #9 | Boston College | ||
| Auburn Hills, MI | |||||
| #5 | Tennessee | #12 | Louisville | ||
| #4 | Ohio State | #13 | OVC: Murray State | ||
| Greensboro, NC | |||||
| #3 | North Carolina | #14 | MOUNTAIN WEST: Air Force | ||
| #6 | Michigan State | #11 | Old Dominion | ||
| Salt Lake City, UT | |||||
| #7 | Syracuse | #10 | Kentucky | ||
| #2 | Kansas | #15 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| West Region – Oakland, CA | |||||
| Dallas, TX | |||||
| #1 | Texas | #16 | Play-in game: SWAC: Southern vs. MEAC: Delaware State | ||
| #8 | North Carolina State | #9 | Cincinnati | ||
| San Diego, CA | |||||
| #5 | George Mason | #12 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| #4 | George Washington | #13 | HORIZON: Wisconsin-Milwaukee | ||
| Dayton, OH | |||||
| #3 | Pittsburgh | #14 | BIG WEST: Pacific | ||
| #6 | Bradley | #11 | Texas A&M | ||
| Salt Lake City, UT | |||||
| #7 | Nevada | #10 | Florida State | ||
| #2 | Washington | #15 | BIG SKY: Montana | ||
| Midwest Region – Minneapolis, MN | |||||
| Philadelphia, PA | |||||
| #1 | Connecticut | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: Lipscomb | ||
| #8 | Iowa | #9 | Northern Iowa | ||
| San Diego, CA | |||||
| #5 | UCLA | #12 | Clemson | ||
| #4 | Oklahoma | #13 | MAC: Kent State | ||
| Jacksonville, FL | |||||
| #3 | LSU | #14 | MAAC: Iona | ||
| #6 | Georgetown | #11 | Maryland | ||
| Dayton, OH | |||||
| #7 | UNC-Wilmington | #10 | Xavier | ||
| #2 | Illinois | #15 | SOUTHLAND: Northwestern State | ||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (7), ACC (7), Big 10 (6), MVC (5), SEC (5), Big 12 (5), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (3), Atlantic 10 (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Michigan, Louisville | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Cincinnati, Texas A&M | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Maryland, Louisville, Clemson, Texas A&M | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: UTEP, Hofstra, Miami, Oklahoma State | |||||
| Regional Pairings: West vs. Midwest, South vs. East | |||||
| Toughest Region: South (Atlanta, GA) | |||||
| Easiest Region: West (Oakland, CA) | |||||
| Copyright 2006 MRISports.com | |||||
Posted February 27, 2006 7:30 PM