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Three Coaches and a Record
February 20, 2006 | By Benjamin Miraski
The departures of Quin Snyder, Eddie Sutton, and Mike Davis had been written on the wall for a while. Sutton had already placed his son on the bench beside him, priming him to take over when the venerable coach had finished his reign. Missouri had been sliding down a long hill for the past few years, receiving accolades they weren't due and building a large file in the NCAA offices. Indiana never seemed to embrace Mike Davis, despite his National Championship loss to Maryland in 2002. All three will be absent from the bench soon, though there are some lingering questions in the air.
Missouri doesn't make anyone's A-list in terms of choices. Take for instance the highly publicized naming of their basketball facility after a major donor's daughter who didn't even attend Missouri. That lasted all of a week before the University wisely changed its mind and named the arena something a little more appropriate. Snyder's time in charge at Missouri was just as troubled.
If you go back in time to before Snyder, Norm Stewart didn't do anything to help the reputation of the school. Bringing in a coach from a well respected institution like Duke should have solved all that. Instead, it just made things worse. While the first few seasons under Snyder were happy, with the team winning and going to the NCAA tournament, the core of the program was still rotten. Snyder was secretly committing NCAA violations from the start of his time at Missouri and they all surfaced during the Ricky Clemons investigation. That is not the sort of thing that you would expect from someone who cut their teeth under Coach K. Amazingly the school survived without being banned from the post-season and while the season began with some great hopes, things quickly fell apart for the Tigers. They won't be going anywhere when the season ends, no matter what the sanctions.
Based on MRI numbers, Missouri was unfairly rewarded in two of Snyder's years with NCAA berths. Sure, they won a few games under Snyder in that tournament, but in two of those wins, they also beat teams that the MRI did not think deserved to be there. Missouri got by on reputation and now that reputation is gone.
It will be interesting to see who is brought in to replace Snyder. In the aftermath of his resignation, stories have surfaced which made it sound like he was strong armed out of the job before the season ended by the administration. Whoever comes in will have to deal with a hostile environment and will most likely lose some of the players on the current roster. There is a good chance that the program will not keep Melvin Watkins on once the season ends. Watkins is the interim coach in the wake of the Snyder debacle. With the state of the program and the way things were handled under Snyder, Watkins and the rest of the staff will most likely be looking elsewhere for jobs.
If you look at mid-major programs that have amassed a good record over the last few seasons, a number of the the top coaches have already been stolen away. One school that comes to mind where the coach has been doing well since 2002, is UNC-Wilmington.
Brad Brownell has one of the top programs in the Colonial conference, a conference that this year may receive two NCAA bids, including one for his own team. He has to recruit against some of the biggest programs in the country when he looks at his own state. Brownell may not be ready to go anywhere, but his is one name to keep an eye on for the job.
Things were a little different for Mike Davis at Indiana. He isn't ready to leave just yet. He still believes in his team and their chances for the tournament - at least, a tournament.
Indiana did nothing to help their tournament chances over the past week, losing to both Penn State and Illinois, to extend their losing streak to five games. Davis and his squad will be lucky to hold on for the NIT.
Davis has been troubled since he took over the program. Never the administration's first choice after the firing of Bobby Knight, Davis has battled to be welcomed ever since. The welcome never came. Kept on to finish the season with the team after the Knight firing, it was only because of the urging of the players and potentially a secret agreement between Knight and the University. Davis was then promoted to the full time coaching position, but only after a high profile search yielded no candidates with either the interest of the resume. And so Davis struggled on.
Living in Chicago, you can't help but hear the groans during an Indiana basketball season the last few years. Each game was another reason to add to the mounting list of why Davis was not right for the job. The Hoosiers might not win by enough points against a lower opponent. The Hoosiers might lose a game to a top team, one they might have had a shot in. The Hoosiers will lose a big lead down the stretch, failing to close out games and making games more exciting than they needed to be. This year, after star DJ White when down with an injury that totally ruined the team chemistry, it was again the fault of Mike Davis. These grievances and more followed Davis everywhere, including during the 2001-2 season when Davis led his team to the National Championship game, only to lose to Maryland.
One of the most prestigious jobs in college coaching will be open at the end of this season. None of Davis's staff will be considered for the job - the University will not want to make a repeat of what they see as their latest mistake. According to Davis, Indiana would do well to choose one of its own to replace him. The real question is how many of these coaches will be willing to leave their current situation. A number of them have already removed their names from consideration for the post.
One of the top names who has not is Steve Alford. While he won't discuss the job right now and has stated that he will only take the job if he is the only candidate considered, he has not ruled it out. Alford may be an Indiana legend but he would do well to think about staying at Iowa. The pressure on Alford would be greater than anything he has seen with the Hawkeyes, and even there, he has not done particularly well. With little success in either the Big Ten or the NCAA tournament, Indiana and Alford may be getting themselves into a poor situation.
So who could Indiana turn to? It could be a long shot, but it might be worth a call to someone who has previously turned around two programs in the state of Indiana, once as a player and once as a head coach. The tall blond boy from French Lick, Indiana, could be the one that Indiana is looking for. Why Larry Bird? He single handedly led Indiana State to a chance at a National Title. He turned around the Indiana Pacers when the stands were empty and no player wanted to go there. He could do the same at Indiana. What high school shooter wouldn't relish the chance to play under Larry Bird? He would have the greatest recruiting draw ever in just his name. It would be a dream match-up, one that Indiana fans may never get to see.
While Missouri and Indiana will be looking for head coaches at the end of the year, Oklahoma State won't. But they will need to know if they should promote their now interim head coach Sean Sutton to the top post. Eddie Sutton left the school in a small bind when he went on medical leave following both his car accident and entry into rehab.
The elder Sutton has battled alcoholism before, most dramatically at Kentucky where he was let go after his addiction interfered with his ability to run the program. Now, it has returned to plague him as his body slowly fights against him staying on the sidelines. Chronic back pain has harmed the head coach this season and led to his being absent from the bench often. His age led him to place his son on the bench as his top assistant for just such occasions when he couldn't go, and the younger Sutton has done well backing up his father.
Now Sean steps into the vacancy, at least only temporarily for now. Eddie Sutton believes that he can recover and return to Oklahoma State to continue pursuing his quest for 800 wins. While numbers are important in basketball, just as in any other sport, this number may not be worth the price. The pursuit is obviously hurting Sutton's health and now has caused him to slip backward in his fight against alcoholism. No number is worth the damage that could do to him and his family.
He had made all the correct decisions in the past by placing his son behind him and lining him up to take the job when he thought it was time. Now all that remains is for Eddie Sutton to acknowledge that it is that time now. His career will still be great, his numbers will still stand out. Now is the time for Eddie to give something back to Oklahoma State like that has given him so much.
Quick Hits for the week:
- Congratulations to J.J. Redick who set the all-time Duke scoring mark with 30 points against Miami. Redick passed his assistant coach, Johnny Dawkins, who stood and cheered after a Redick three point shot earned him the record. Redick is now 30 points behind the all-time ACC mark, currently held by Wake Forest alumnus, Dickie Hemric. He will have his shot to pass Hemric on Wednesday when the Blue Devils take on Georgia Tech. This will be the only meeting of the year between the two teams unless they meet in the ACC tournament.
- Earlier in the weekend, the NIT announced that they will invite all regular season conference champions who do not make the NCAA tournament to the NIT. This is a great way to celebrate the success of those teams who triumphed over two or three months of conference play and not just a single weekend in March. While this sounds like a great idea to fill about five or six spots (an average number of upsets in the conference tournaments which do not also make the NCAAs) of the 40 with the conference winners, this may not give the best teams in the country to the chance to compete. You may say that the best teams are already in the NCAA tournament, and I would agree, but the best thing about the NIT tournament may be that it gives younger teams who excelled a chance to play a few more games against good competition before next season. It has consistently been the proving grounds for teams that the next year have excelled. While some of the teams that will get spots definitely deserve to go, would you still say the same thing if a team like Southern from the SWAC or Delaware State from the MEAC ended up getting a spot?
The NIT also decided to waive their previous rule that all teams had to have a .500 record overall. This leaves open the door to fill out the field with sub-par major conference teams instead of the mid-major teams that have had their chances in the past.
The NIT had previously rewarded great play in a conference season and there was no need to expand that rule to include many of the lower conferences where the level of play is just not the same. Changing the .500 rule hurts those mid-major teams from the next level of conferences beyond the top 6. These teams deserve the chances they have been given in the past, in lieu of teams that couldn't break even during the year. Hopefully, the committee will still do the right thing come tournament selection time and give the most deserving teams a spot.
- Back when Savannah State was winless, I mentioned that the formula I use to generate the confidence factor for the MRI had a point where no team had ever lost a game. And that came to an end last week. Norfolk State lost to Morgan State at home, a game that had a rating over 14 in the confidence scale and caused the first loss in the range. Of over 10,000 games rated, only 100 had ever been in that range, and now, only one has ever been predicted wrong. I guess you have to count on one of those upsets in every 10,000 games. In a few years, maybe this will be the 1-16 game in the tournament.
- While the MRI didn't fare so well in that game, the MRI did go 12-1 in predicting the televised Bracket Buster games from the weekend. There was no way I was going to be able to guess all 50 games that were scheduled, but the televised ones sure did a good job of battling the MRI system.
- I ran the tournament simulation that I used last year on this week's projections. Each region was run 25 times with the two best Elite Eight teams moving on. Then the final eight were run 50 times. The winner? Memphis, who won 17 of the 50 trials and finished second in seven more. Second best was the current MRI leader Duke who won 12 times and finished second nine times. Most surprising was #1 seed Connecticut who failed to win any of the 50 trials despite making the final game 10 times.
Posted February 20, 2006 10:00 PM
