First things first. Place the No. 1 seed in every region into the second round. This isn't the year things are going to change, not with the 1-seeds that we have and the lack of strength in the 16-seeds. If this one fails you, you are free to send me your requests for your entry fee back in whatever pool you are in.

Now, we are getting to the first bit of knowledge. Each year, no matter what, there is always one region that goes crazy. Every rule you have ever heard for filling out your bracket fails in that region. It is as if the laws of physics don't apply anymore just for teams in that regional. Now that the "pod system" is in place, you could even have one set of teams at a first round location follow all the rules, while the other set just seems to be playing under a cloud. This year, I think this will be in the Minneapolis region. There are too many really good teams there for the region to hold true to form.

The next bit of knowledge is that you must have a strong big man to help carry your team through the games. The tournament is about stamina, and a team that is busy trying to travel and shoot and live up to media expectations is not going to survive long. That is why last year's West Virginia team is still such a shocker. They did most of their damage from behind the three point arc. Does that mean that a shooting team can't win a game or two? No, of course not. In fact, that is the other piece of the game that you have to have in place.

You can't just throw the ball inside to the big guy and hope that he will win you the ball game. You have to have the shooters who can get you the big three, or have the ability to receive the kick back from the centers and forwards and knock down the open jumper. Syracuse had Carmelo Anthony, and even more now, Gerry McNamara, UConn had Ben Gordon, and North Carolina had just about everyone else on their team other than Sean May.

Right now, you are probably thinking, "Great. Tell me something I didn't know." Well, if you knew it then why are you picking Boston College to go far? How about the same West Virginia team from last year, again in this year's tournament? The fact is, you have to look for balanced teams to fill the deep lines on your brackets. That is where the money is, not that we advocate gambling at all.

So, these are the criteria we are going to look at in the tournament games.

Got your pencils ready? Good.

We already talked about the No. 1 seeds. They aren't going to lose.

The No. 2 seeds need a little bit of analysis though. Not all of them. Just one. Tennessee.

Yes, I know ESPN is hyping up Bruce Pearl's team because Pearl is using the backlash over his team's placement as blackboard material. Uh, Bruce, last time I checked, the No. 2 seed didn't need blackboard material, at least to get out of the first round. Maybe later in the tournament, but not right away. Are you telling us you are scared? Well he should be, because he is facing Winthrop.

Here come the screams. "Winthrop? The 15-seed? We should be scared?" I know. They barely survived the conference tournament final against Coastal Carolina, a team they lost to twice this season. And they lost to Liberty during the regular season, a loss that they avenged by beating the Flames by 41 in the Big South Tournament. But against tournament teams, they performed a lot better. They beat Marquette on the road early in the season in a shocker. They barely lost to Alabama, the team that Marquette will be playing the first round. They were only 10 points away from the #1 seeded Memphis Tigers, and while I hate to bring up past tournament performance (Nantz and Packer, pay attention), Winthrop gave Gonzaga every thing they had last season in the first round before falling by 10.

The Eagles have the right amount of size inside, including 6'10" Craig Bradshaw to go up against Tennessee. The only question will be around speed. If the Vols can run the ball like they have in their meetings with Florida, the Eagles will tire quickly and be done. However, I still think that Winthrop has the right combination to pull off the upset in this one, especially since the Eagles may be seeded too low and the Vols too high. If this were a 4-13 game, I would say to pencil in the Eagles. The 2-15 match-up scares me, if only for the numbers next to the names. I don't think that the Vols have enough depth on the inside to go far in the tournament. They are going to have to rely on running and shooting and keeping Major Wingate and Andre Patterson out of foul trouble. One game could be easy to pull over on them. If you want to take the chance and your pool has any points based on seed of the winner, pick the upset. You won't be hurting for long if you are wrong.

Moving to the 3-14 match-ups, I am pretty confident that these will hold form also. In fact, three of these names will be coming up a lot as we move forward through the bracket -- Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida.

Yes, I know that Steve Alford hasn't exactly had Iowa ready to shock anyone in the tournament in the past, but then again, they have never been the three seed under him either. The Hawkeyes have the recipe for a big tournament run, just like most Big Ten teams and this year, and they have the depth to finally pull it off. They will not be the underdog after the first game either like their were the last time they won a game in the tournament. I would venture that of all the teams on the three line, Iowa matches up the best with both teams seeded above them, Texas and Duke.

North Carolina is young, but there are still players on that team that experienced the Championship season last year. Every team is going to have its bobble game in the tournament. This is the game that is way too close and scares every amateur bracket maker until the final buzzer. North Carolina will have theirs early and after that, they should be a scary team. Once they learned how to win at the beginning of the season, considering many of them didn't have many minutes or points at the college level, there was very little that stood in their way, including Duke.

We will get to Florida later, but South Alabama should not pull the shocker. That much I can be sure of.

The only question mark is Gonzaga. The Zags have enough questions around them to fill an entire article. The most interesting part about Gonzaga is that ever since they have become a favorite, they haven't made the Sweet Sixteen. The first two years of their current run in the tournament were all made from the bottom part of the bracket. As soon as the number were next to their name during the season, at some points putting them as high as #4 or 5 in the nation this season, expectations seemed to take away their chances. And this is probably their most dicey year yet with the high seed.

If you look at the previous years for Gonzaga, you can see the pattern even more.

1998-9 Pre-MRI, Get #10 seed, Make Elite 8 before losing to Connecticut

1999-2000 Pre-MRI, Get #10 seed, Make Sweet 16 before losing to Purdue

2000-1 #41 MRI pre-tournament, Get #12 seed, Make Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan State

2001-2 #11 MRI pre-tournament, Get #6 seed, Lose first round to Wyoming (They did get hosed on seeding this year)

2002-3 #23 MRI pre-tournament, Get #9 seed, Lose second round to Arizona

2003-4 #3 MRI pre-tournament, Get #2 seed, Lose second round to Nevada

2004-5 #20 MRI pre-tournament, Get #3 seed, Lose second round to Texas Tech

2005-6 #31 MRI pre-tournament, Get #3 seed.

The only benefit they have is that they have actually fallen in the MRI over the last three seasons, which if you look at the only good season they had since the MRI, they might make the Sweet Sixteen. But more than the numbers, the scary thing is their performance of late.

Anyone who watched any of the games in the West Coast Conference tournament saw Gonzaga consistently play down to the level of their opponents. It didn't matter how many points Adam Morrison scored. It didn't matter how big JP Batista and Derek Raivio came through. The fact was that the mighty Gonzaga was challenged every night. So what makes me so sure that Xavier won't challenge them, especially considering the run by the Musketeers in the Atlantic 10 tournament? The truth is I am not sure.

Sure, Xavier took a big drop over the last month of the season. They lost their leading scorer, Brian Thornton. They had their point guard and senior leader, Dedrick Finn, dismissed from the team for a violation of team rules. They were in disarray. Still, they managed to get it together for the Atlantic 10 tournament and win four games straight. This game is not going to be about stopping Adam Morrison. This game is going to be about stopping JP Batista. If Justin Doellman and the other big men for the Musketeers can do that, Morrison will be all alone on the floor and will be much easier to take care of.

So who am I picking? Despite all that, I have Gonzaga penciled in all the way to the Sweet Sixteen to meet UCLA. If they go out in the second round again this year, it wouldn't surprise me. If they lose in the first round to Xavier, it would surprise me a little, but not as much as it will everyone else.

Last for now will be the No. 4 seeds. These are usually the teams that can cause the most damage to a bracket, being the most likely to knock out the No. 1 seeds later on in the Sweet Sixteen. This year, LSU, Illinois, Boston College, and Kansas, and taking that yoke on their backs. If you look at the teams, you have the makings of what could be next year's Final Four participants in two squads, Kansas and LSU. Both are young, both have inside strength, and both are getting the experience they need this year to make the run next year. That doesn't mean that neither has a shot to get their this season, it just more likely to come with another year of playing under their belts. That said, LSU should get by Iona with no problem and Kansas should survive Bradley.

If there is any team that is more of an enigma, it could be the Braves, who can keep their nickname with an outstanding appeal to the NCAA. Bradley came from nowhere in the conference to put on a brilliant late season run and make it all the way to Conference Tournament finals. A month before the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, Bradley was an afterthought. Now, they are one of the final teams in and got what could be a favorable match-up. Remember that Bradley is a team with a lot of upperclassmen. They are big in the middle with Patrick O'Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville (see, I told you his story was yet to be told...). They have some shooters and an experienced guard who can distribute the ball in Daniel Ruffin.

The experience of the Braves is countered by the youth, but dangerous youth, of the Jayhawks. Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Julian Wright, these are the names that we should be paying attention to next year (as for a couple, it may be their last in college). I think this game will come down to how well Chalmers has really matured as the leader on the offensive side of the ball. He will be controlling the action for Kansas. They made it through to capture the Big XII title and that was a great boost to their confidence. They have experience against a bigger inside team because of their play against Texas and Oklahoma. They should be ready for this game.

But again, they are young, and Bradley is hungry to show to that they were not incorrectly placed into the field. This may be yet another of those games, where if you get points for the seed that wins in an upset, you might want to take Bradley. They have what it takes to win in the tournament and Kansas or Bradley will have its hands full with Pittsburgh in the second round.

As for Illinois and Boston College, you can move them both through with no problem. Illinois should take care of an Air Force squad which received what I think was a gift from the committee. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Boston College is facing a Pacific team that knows how to win in the tournament and that could be trouble, but I think the Eagles learned a lot about themselves playing in the ACC tournament. After the terrible start to their first season in conference there, they righted the ship and almost took their inaugural season championship in the tournament. Don't fret on the size of Christian Maraker. Boston College should contain him well with Craig Smith and Jared Dudley helping John Oates down low.

Did you get all that? A few potential upsets in the top four lines and some sleeper picks for you if you get bonus points. Stay tuned for lines five through eight where anything can and will happen.