The five seeds are what we all know as legend. They always go down to the No. 12, usually once or more per tournament. So which No. 5 is in trouble this year? Well, it is not Pittsburgh, despite how down I was on the Panthers going into the Big East tournament. Their performance through the gauntlet in that mini-NCAA type tournament was definitely enough to let me know that they are ready. And not only ready, possibly poised for a long run into the tournament. I would imagine that Pittsburgh has what it takes to beat not only Kansas, thanks to the Jayhawks youth, but also the Memphis Tigers. All seven feet and 270 pounds of Aaron Gray are going to give teams coming into the middle plenty of trouble. Plus, between Gray and Carl Krauser, Pitt has the scoring ability to hang with anyone. The only issue for the Panthers is depth and while it won't kill them in the first round, later rounds are going to be an issue. Kansas could go down to Pitt and so might Pittsburgh, but UCLA will be much tougher.

While you are at it, you can move Washington through. Utah State was one of the MRI misses, and thanks to the rules, MRI misses are more than likely to lose in the first round. Very few get past that point at all, and even fewer are going to make any run to the Sweet 16. The only two teams to embarrass the MRI completely were Missouri a few years back and West Virginia last season. That pretty much guarantees that Utah State is a first round loss.

Nevada doesn't play an MRI miss - the MRI actually had Montana over Northern Arizona for the Big Sky title - but it does have Nick Fazekas and Montana doesn't. The big man in the middle for the Wolf Pack has great help along the perimeter and inside. Nevada is also a sleeper pick for the Sweet 16. Look for them to challenge Boston College with the same make-up as the Eagles. Don't be surprised if Nevada can duplicate the run it had under Trent Johnson.

So, that leaves everyone's Big East tournament Cinderella, Syracuse. Can I be serious? The Orange going down to one of the last teams in, Texas A&M? Yes. Syracuse's run in the tournament came with a lot of luck. They needed a few saves from Gerry McNamara and it could be that they have used up all of their magic to get to this point. Don't forget that they also played 4 games last week against very good competition. It is not like they are rested for the start of the tournament and the tiredness did show a bit at the end of their Big East run. So can Texas A&M end it all for the Orange? Yes. A&M had been playing better than most teams headed into their Big XII tournament. They humiliated Colorado and they gave Texas everything they had for the second time in two weeks to continue their life in tournament. There is no doubt that the Aggies can play with anyone. The real question will be if it carries over into the NCAA tournament and I think the answer is yes. I don't think the Orange are going to have what it takes to slow down Acie Law and the defense of the Aggies has been very good over the past few weeks. And all that will lead them to the first round upset.

At the 6-seed, we have two more automatic exits thanks to MRI misses. Indiana is going to try and send Mike Davis out a winner, much to the chagrin of the administration, but I don't think it will happen. Possibly without Robert Vaden, they are going to be without one of their top scoring threats and that is not something you want in the tournament. San Diego State has Marcus Slaughter inside to help shut down Marco Killingsworth and that should give the Aztecs enough of an edge on the defensive side of the ball to score with the Hoosiers. As long as nothing happens to Slaughter to cause him to miss too much of the game, they should pull the win. And don't think that San Diego State will stop there. Given their roster, they should prove a tough test for Gonzaga should the Zags get past the larger Xavier team.

The other 6-seed without hope is West Virginia. Yes, I would have said that last season also, but this year I mean it. I have said before that any team with a decent inside presence and some great guard defense has a great chance of stopping the Mountaineers. I think Southern Illinois has enough of that to stop the 3-point shots from raining down on them. Everyone loved Pittsnogle last season. This year, they will lament selecting him deep into the tournament bracket.

Michigan State should move through a little easier. While George Mason got a lot of love in the MRI this season, they will be without their second leading scorer who is suspended for the game.

And that leaves Oklahoma. The Sooners haven't been playing well lately, but Wisconsin-Milwaukee won't be making the run that they did either. Taj Gray and Kevin Bookout should be too much for the Panthers to deal with inside and that should keep Wisconsin-Milwaukee only playing one game this year.

So, if the six line was so easy, is the seven line the same way? Well part of it is. Both Cal and Marquette were teams that the MRI didn't pick. I think that Cal is definitely out in the first round. They have only one weapon and watching how easily UCLA took care of them, I can't be convinced that they will be going on to the weekend. Meanwhile, Marquette is a different story.

The Golden Eagles will be playing Alabama, another of the MRI's misses, much as the committee plans it each season. So, despite all of the critics I have faced, take Marquette. Steve Novak should be too much for Alabama, and considering that 'Bama has been playing even worse than Oklahoma over the last few weeks, it should be an easy win. They meet UCLA most likely in round two, so they better enjoy the 40 minutes they have against the Tide. They won't be getting past the Bruins.

The other two games should be of great interest as we will find out a lot about the top teams in the Missouri Valley. Wichita State is the only team from the Valley to get a high seed in the tournament and that has often been good news for that conference. And they are playing an MRI miss. What more could you want? The Shockers have a balanced scoring attack and don't need to rely on only a few players to get the production they need. I have Wichita State moving past Seton Hall, and then, no matter if Winthrop pulls the upset or not, the Shockers will keep playing all the way to the second weekend. Sweet sixteen has never been so good as when it comes to rub it into the face of all the naysayers of the Valley out there.

Northern Iowa did not get as lucky with its draw. Ben Jacobson and Grant Stout will have their hands full with the Georgetown Hoyas. Roy Hibbert is a monster inside for the Hoyas. He is listed at 7'2" and 283 pounds. That is a lot for a team that doesn't have a player over 6'10" to move around. And that player doesn't even start. Plus, the newest version of the Princeton offense with a little more style is not like anything in the Missouri Valley. The Hoyas should take this, but I would expect this game to be tightly contested. Either way, this winner is not getting past the Buckeyes in the second round, no matter how big they are.

And now for the fun lines, the 8-9 game. This is more often won by the No. 9 team and this year should be no different. The only No. 8 team I would count on is George Washington. It looks like Pops Mensah-Bonsu will be playing and that is not good for the Colonial conference champs, UNC-Wilmington. The Colonial Athletic Association was hoping to make a statement in the tournament this year. They were hoping to show that they had what it takes to warrant two bids each season. They certainly had the numbers during the regular season. But they don't have a Pops and that will keep their tournament to only 40 minutes.

Now the No. 9 seeds. I don't know about you, but Bucknell is too good to pass up. They won last year against a much better Kansas squad and no matter how good Arkansas had been playing of late to show the committee what I had been saying for two months, you have to go with the Bison. Bucknell earned a spot in the MRI top 25 before the season was done and that should be enough for me to pick them in this game. But also to remember is that this team took down Syracuse this season. They have their veteran line-up returning and they have the experience of winning the game. Arkansas... not so much.

If you want to talk about experience, there are no two better teams to talk about than Wisconsin and Arizona. Ever since the revival at Wisconsin about 10 years ago, the Badgers have been a staple of the tournament. And Arizona, they have been there for almost as long as Lute Olson has been coaching. The Wildcats had some trouble this year. Having one of the toughest schedules in the league, they definitely had their share of struggles. And off the court, they had plenty of distractions to keep them occupied also. I don't think this team has the focus this year for a deep run. Too much has happened to them this year.

Wisconsin may not be playing their best basketball either, but they always seem to find a way to turn it on in the tournament. The Badgers have the one of the best inside games and they should not have a problem out rebounding Arizona. They will need to control the tempo and keep it very slow. If the Wildcats run out on them, they will need one of the Illinois style comebacks from last year's tournament to get to the second round. I think they have the shooters to do it, but that is not how they like to play. I have the Badgers surprising a lot of people thanks to their superior match-up against not only Arizona, but Villanova (lack of big men), and Nevada (too much size over the Wolf Pack). Will Wisconsin make the great run? I think so, and it will be another banner year for the Big Ten if they do, facing Ohio State in the Regional Finals.

One last first round game: UAB against Kentucky. UAB knows how to play defense and that should be enough in this game to take out the Wildcats. Why? Because Kentucky can not hang onto the ball. No matter what line-up that Tubby Smith will put into the game, they just have trouble with keeping the ball with the shirts in blue. By now we all know Squeaky Johnson's name. He averages almost 3 steals a game. There isn't much more you can say about that. The Blazers need to concentrate on not only forcing the turnovers but keeping the ball away from the Randolph Morris. If UAB can accomplish that, much as they have all season, they will take out the inconsistent Kentucky team.

There is your first round with a little glimpse into what I did later in the brackets. If all holds true, the winner of the tournament will most likely come from the top 10 teams in the MRI. That means no Iowa, no UCLA (though I like them as a sleeper), no Ohio State, and most definitely no Gonzaga.

This is a very interesting tournament and one of the hardest ones that I have yet tried to pick my way through. Once the tournament begins, I will post a link to my brackets somewhere on a website so you can follow my progress and that of the MRI through the rounds. Enjoy the games and enjoy the dance.