Atlanta Regional: Duke(1) vs. LSU(4)
The further that Duke goes in the tournament, the more dangerous they normally get. This year, that is a little scary. The Blue Devils certainly seemed to have some weaknesses late in the season. JJ Redick's shooting was going downhill earlier that usual. Shelden Williams seemed to not have any help inside despite the improving play of DeMarcus Nelson and Josh McRoberts. And then the ACC tournament hit and all that trouble went out the window. Their play improved, Redick shooting came back, Williams was the landlord of the paint once again. This has carried over into the NCAA tournament and they are winning their games by the second largest margin in the field. And yet, it still scares me to see this team, this team with so many acknowledged flaws, ready to make another run to the Final Four.

Add to my fears that they are playing a dangerous young team in LSU. The Tigers are showing everyone why I think they are ready to make a Final Four run next season. Their margin of victory hasn't been that impressive. They aren't blowing people away in the tournament. They are winning with good shooting and a great inside game led by Glen Davis.

Despite all that, I think that the experience of the Blue Devils will win out out in this game. Williams has grown enough over his four years to learn how to be tough inside without being in foul trouble all the time. McRoberts is turning into the good inside player that Coach Krzyzewski recruited. He should provide enough help to Williams whether they are sharing the court or he is subbing for him. This should be enough to take away the advantage that Davis has provided LSU inside. The X-factor will be the shooting of Greg Paulus and Redick, who have both done much better over the two games of the tournament. It must be a relief for Redick that he no longer has to carry the shooting load outside of the paint by himself.

Duke is turning into an actual team as opposed to two players with a supporting cast as they were for most of the season.

Count this one for the Devils, though it will probably be a lot closer than Duke's other games so far and most people expect.
MRI Predicts: Duke Confidence factor: 72.82%

Atlanta Regional: West Virginia (6) vs. Texas (2)
They played earlier this year. Texas played terribly for most of the game, turning the ball over too much, missing open shots, but they were still in it. And when you are close with the game on the line, it should be up to your best player to do something to take it over the top and LaMarcus Aldridge did just that. Aldridge made a shot with 3.9 seconds remaining and then scored a big block to save the game for the Longhorns.

And that was early in the season. Texas didn't look like the team they are now. This team doesn't give the ball up 24 times. This is not the team that Duke sent to the showers with a 31-point defeat. This is a team that has come into its own.

I keep talking about the importance of Brad Buckman. Remember, it was he who was missing for most of the game against Duke. Before he left the floor, the game was close. After he was gone, Texas had nothing. He only scores nine a game. He only gets about seven rebounds. He isn't flashy, but he is a complement to Aldridge on the floor. Buckman helps to clear the other team's big men out of the inside to give more room to Aldridge to work. Unlike most teams that have only one larger man to set screens up high, or in the post, Texas has two. They don't lose the lane when Buckman moves up to the top of the key to give the guards a little room. They still have Aldridge in the paint to receive a pass for the easy lay-in.

That said, Buckman is not the only key to this game, but he is a big part especially against the undersized West Virginia. Kenton Paulino will need to make his passes, Aldridge will need to make his shots, Daniel Gibson will need to add his almost 14 points a game.

Texas is built to beat a team like West Virginia. They have the big presence inside. If the Mountaineers can only get one chance at a longer shot, Texas will control the ball for long periods of time. Their guards are pesky enough to force West Virginia into turnovers.

The line from last game had Mike Gansey scoring 28 points. The rest of the team had only one man over 10. I have to believe a focus of the defensive effort for Texas is going to be stopping Gansey from doing it again. PJ Tucker will most likely be outside to try and stop the smaller forward. If Buckman and Aldridge can stay home, Gansey won't be driving past Tucker to get to the rim.

Texas has to force West Virginia to shoot long shots and not allow the offensive rebounds. Yes, a good number of the shots will fall in, but the secret will be keeping West Virginia from the long boards.

If Texas can do that, as they did last time, and not allow Gibson to turn the ball over nine times, this game should go the Longhorns' way much easier than the previous match.
MRI Predicts: Texas Confidence factor: 92.45%

Oakland Regional: Memphis (1) vs. Bradley (13)
When I told you a few weeks ago that Marcellus Sommerville's college career story was yet to be written, you probably didn't believe me. When I recommended that you might want to take a shot on Bradley in the first round against Kansas, I am guessing many of you left it out of your brackets.

When Bradley won their first two games of the NCAA tournament, I am guessing many of you were still shocked.

The truth is that Bradley has a very good basketball team, underrated, and under-seeded by the committee. This team proved over the last third of the season that they were just as good if not better than the most of the Missouri Valley conference. And now they have a chance to shock the country again if they can beat the Memphis Tigers.

According to the MRI numbers, the chance of Bradley winning back to back games against Kansas and Pittsburgh when they did, on a neutral floor, was something close to 1 in 15. The chances of them beating Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Memphis, in a row is less than 1 in 100. And yet, you still can't count them out.

They are bringing in Sommerville, who has averaged 19 points in the last two games. They have Patrick O'Bryant, who sure made a name for himself against Pittsburgh, averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds. It is not as if they were doing this against poor competition either. It is probably a given that these two can do well for the Braves. The real question will be what other member of the team steps up to shoot along with them.

In the game against Kansas, it was Daniel Ruffin and Will Franklin. Against Pittsburgh, it was Lawrence Wright. This team has the talent to compete. But can they stop the Tigers?

Memphis won't allow them to get away with turnovers. They will run over them too quickly if that happens. Memphis is too fast in the transition game for Bradley to keep up with them long in a running match.

While the Tigers may not be as tall inside as Bradley, Rodney Carney is also no slouch when it comes to scoring inside or out. There is a good chance Sommerville will get the task of guarding Carney and that could signal a quick foul problem for Bradley. Carney has too much speed for Sommerville to match up consistently with him and it could be that we see him driving past Sommerville every chance he gets. This means that O'Bryant will either have to come off his man to help, leaving open the easy pass and basket, or Sommerville is going to get caught trying to keep up and be forced to foul Carney or give the easy hoop.

While I can't totally discount the Braves, they are overwhelmed by the talent on Memphis and that should be enough to give the Tigers the edge. The speed of Memphis combined with the chance for Bradley to make too many mistakes now that the eyes of the nation are on them should be too much. There is no counting on foul trouble from all the Memphis big men as there was in the game against Pittsburgh. There won't be the turnovers to give the ball back to Bradley consistently as there was against Kansas. John Calipari won't let that happen.

Still, something in the back of my head still tells me that a story is coming here, despite what the numbers say. Don't be surprised if Memphis is the first No.1 seed to go down, and Bradley is the first No. 13 seed to play for a chance to go to the Final Four.
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence factor: 85.85%

Oakland Regional: Gonzaga (3) vs. UCLA (2)
If you aren't already exhausted from watching the Duke and LSU game, this one should be a treat, if only to see which way UCLA is able to shut down Gonzaga.

The Zags have been lucky so far. They survived Xavier, though I think it shocked them that they were pushed to the limit by that team. They survived Indiana, despite Morrison's dreadful shooting night and Vaden's 20 points. They won't be so lucky with UCLA.

I should apologize for telling people to overlook Indiana in the first round. I was unaware that Vaden would be playing. And wouldn't you know that it would be his three point shot with about three seconds to go that would do in the Aztecs for good. And I really thought that San Diego State would have what it took to take out Gonzaga in the second round for another season. Well, so much for that pick.

So, we will be putting our faith in the Bruins to do the task and it shouldn't be a surprise when they do.

I have consistently railed on the need to not stop Adam Morrison, because only he can stop himself, as he has a few times this year. His shooting wasn't on against Indiana and it may have something to do with a flu bug that he has caught and may not have shaken by the time the game begins tonight. The real secret to stopping the Zags is in making sure they have no second option.

There is no doubt in my mind that Jordan Farmar can stop Derek Raivio. That means that this battle, like most in the tournament will be won with the inside game. Can Luc Mbah a Moute, Ryan Hollins, and Alfred Aboya, stop JP Batista? The answer here is a resounding yes.

Xavier's bigger team held him to 18 points, and only eight rebounds. UCLA's big men are better.

Indiana let Batista get 20, and let Sean Mallon total 15 on them. They didn't have the help for Marco Killingsworth that UCLA does.

And yet despite their deficiencies, both Xavier and Indiana both just missed beating the Zags. UCLA, on paper, should have better luck against Batista, and given Morrison's health, potentially both of them.

Arron Afflalo has been semi-silent through the tournament so far. I would look for him to take advantage of Adam Morrison's less that spectacular defense in this game and start to come alive for the Bruins. He better do it now, as they will need him against Memphis in the Regional Finals.
MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 72.82%