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Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Friday
March 24, 2006 | By Benjamin Miraski
I am still trying to catch my breath. The highlights keep rolling on ESPN, repeatedly showing the last few seconds of the final two games from Thursday.
Kenton Paulino deftly catching the pass from AJ Abrams with his left hand and in one motion stopping his rush up the court and jumping from about three feet beyond the arc. Swish! Game over. Texas advances.
Jordan Farmar steals the ball from over JP Batista's head in the back court and tosses it to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for an easy two points. Derek Raivio rushes up the court with the ball, harassed by the UCLA defense. The ball is knocked from him and Mbah a Moute dives to the floor to cover it up forcing the tie-up. Arron Afflalo manages to hit one free throw after getting fouled on the inbounds pass, keeping hope for the Zags alive. Gonzaga has one last heave down court to Batista. Clunk! Game over. UCLA survives and Adam Morrison collapses to the floor in tears.
Within about the game space of about a minutes, two No. 2 seeds survive what were amazing games.
Not to take anything away from the earlier two contests, but the second two were games that rival the finishes of last season's Regional Finals. And there is no reason to suspect that they won't lead to great games on Saturday making us recall last year's games once again.
So, with Thursday's games done and Saturday's games set, the MRI takes a look at Friday's schedule and who should still be playing on Sunday afternoon.
Washington Region: George Mason (11) vs. Wichita State (7)
Unless you have been sleeping for the last week, you have heard all there is to know about both George Mason and Wichita State. You have watched how these two teams that many didn't give a chance have advanced to be on the verge of making history. Not that history hasn't already been made. The Colonial Athletic Association doesn't put teams into the Sweet 16. The Missouri Valley doesn't put two teams into the Sweet 16. But the basketball landscape is changing, and these are the pioneers of that change.
And the Pioneers of George Mason might have the best shot to make history of the two teams. Earlier this season, Tony Skinn nailed a three point shot to beat Wichita State. And now he has another chance. Skinn was suspended for the opening round game against Michigan State. His team fought to the win.
Skinn's game against North Carolina was forgettable, but not the result -- another win for the Patriots. And now, Skinn has the chance to relive the glory of the earlier game when he scored 23 points against the Shockers.
The battle inside between Jai Lewis of George Mason and Paul Miller and Kyle Wilson of Wichita State will be something to watch. Lewis may not have shot well against the athletic Tyler Hansbrough, but his 275 pounds sure disrupted the North Carolina big man. Miller and Wilson have dominated the inside in their games against Seton Hall and Tennessee. Last time around, they had trouble containing Lewis. They must be better prepared now.
And George Mason better be prepared for the shooting talent of Wichita State. Sean Ogirri took a while to get going against Tennessee, but he was key to the first victory over Seton Hall. PJ Couisnard took over in the Tennessee game with two late three point baskets to seal the win. Both will need to shoot better than last time around when they were 2-11 from three point range. Given the way things have gone so far in the tournament, that stat should definitely improve.
This one is almost too close to call, which should be obvious after the close result of the Bracket Buster game. Given the tougher road that George Mason has taken to this point and the game's location in D.C., I am going to lean towards the Patriots, but there is no reason that the game can't go the other way. Most of the country will dismiss this game because of the names in it, but it should provide some of the best action of the night.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence factor: 59.89%
Washington Region: Connecticut (1) vs. Washington (5)
Connecticut, against everyone's predictions, has stumbled into the Sweet Sixteen. Not that anyone thought that Connecticut would be home by now. It was more that they thought they would easily blow through the competition until this point. That wasn't the truth as they struggled against the #16 Albany and then against Kentucky. Now they have a rolling Washington team that wasn't expected at all to be in this game.
The Huskies were discounted by everyone, with some going so far to believe that Utah State would be playing against Illinois in the second round. Brandon Roy and Washington survived though, living through repeated comebacks by Illinois and now they have to take down the East coast Huskies.
Roy has now scored almost 50 points in the first two contests which is good for Washington and bad for them also. Good because it means their best player is rolling into the game with Connecticut on a hot streak. Bad because it means that Washington isn't getting a contribution from anyone else to help spread the Connecticut defense out.
Yes, Justin Dentmon and Jamaal Williams have been contributing, but just not in the surprising way that you look for in the tournament. They haven't led the team in scoring. They haven't come from nowhere to become the next great name. They are in the shadows of Roy and that means that Connecticut should have one singular focus -- stopping him.
Connecticut's defense is the best in the league when they are concentrating. Hilton Armstrong was the easy choice for the Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East. He swats away anything that comes even close to him. In the Kentucky game, the blocks weren't coming, but if a scare doesn't get the defense focused for Washington, I don't know what will. And even if Armstrong is out, Josh Boone, Rudy Gay, and Denham Brown will be patrolling around the basket with one of the deepest big lines in the country.
The key in this game will be focus. There is no doubt that Connecticut can stop the scoring of Washington if they are into the game. And if Marcus Williams is playing as well as he has been lately, and Rashad Anderson can add his very timely threes, Connecticut should be unstoppable with all their weapons.
I just don't see Washington pulling another upset to get past the Huskies. Connecticut should roll into Sunday.
MRI Predicts: Connecticut Confidence factor: 67.74%
Minneapolis Region: Villanova (1) vs. Boston College (4)
Craig Smith and Jared Dudley are going to have a field day inside against the Wildcats. Seems like an obvious statement. Too bad it won't be true. Arizona thought it was going to have that field day and look what happened to them. The four guard line-up that the Philadelphia Wildcats had been dragging out to the court all season suddenly wasn't the story. Instead it was Will Sheridan and Dante Cunningham. The two big men in the eternally small line-up were contributing more than they had ever been needed before. And it paid off for Villanova. They are still playing.
Sheridan and Cunningham will need to give little bit more if Villanova is to keep playing until Sunday. Their guards will score. Their guards will defend Louis Hinnant and Tyrese Rice. They just need the big men to do their job inside. It is that simple. Villanova is too strong around the perimeter for that to be a factor. Boston College is going to need to get the ball into the post. And the amount that they are able to do that will determine if the Eagles will be soaring Sunday, or if they will only be soaring back to Massachusetts.
Randy Foye and Allan Ray will most likely go for about 50 points combined in this one. Their mid-range shooting will be called into action here. They won't be able to drive to the basket in this game. If West Virginia can live by shooting from deep, then Villanova will have to live by shooting from 15 feet. If Boston College can keep the Wildcats under 70, they may have a chance in this one. Otherwise, they are going home.
MRI Predicts: Villanova Confidence factor: 72.77%
Minnesapolis Region: Georgetown (7) vs. Florida (3)
If you like to watch the big men battle it out inside the paint, this game is for you. And this one should be simple for the Gators in terms of strategy. Wear out Roy Hibbert. The Georgetown big man is carrying around almost 300 pounds. And no one runs like the Gators.
Billy Donovan has always had fast teams, but not many have been this fast and this big. His bench is deep with big men that he can trot out against Hibbert. It won't be two men and done like Ohio State. It won't be outmatched inside like Northern Iowa. This is team that has the size to compete with Georgetown's version of the Great Wall of China.
The Gators will also need to get the contribution from Taurean Green, something that has been lacking during the first two rounds. The announcers from CBS made it clear. Green had been walking through the first two games in a daze. Flashes of brilliance, yes, but a daze for the better part of the tournament so far. They haven't exactly needed him so far. The fast big men like Joakim Noah have made sure to cover for the back court leader. However, with their hands full in this one, they are going to need Green's contribution on the shooting front. Only 14 points in the first two games combined for a player that almost averages 14 a game for the Gators won't be enough for Florida.
Of course, if Hibbert is forced to foul and foul early against Noah et al, Green might not be needed. The Florida front line can easily take it inside against Georgetown's Jeff Green and Brandon Bowman. Not that these Hoyas aren't great defenders. It is that they improve when the offense of the other team has to worry about the seven footer in the middle in addition to them.
So there is the plan for Florida, a team running right now like a freight train with no conductor and no dead man's switch. Keep running. Wear out Hibbert. The rest should take care of itself.
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 79.14%
Posted March 24, 2006 1:00 PM
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