« Clock is stopped at 11:59, Cinderella Still Dancing | Main | The National Championship, April 3rd, 2006 »
The Final Four, April 1st, 2006
April 1, 2006 | By Benjamin Miraski
Sitting in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks are celebrating a second straight victory in the NIT. And while they are celebrating, the bigger championship is still to be decided. Playing for that championship are two teams that South Carolina knows well, LSU and Florida, currently seen as possible favorites for a finals rematch.
What does the MRI say about the Final Four?
George Mason(11) vs. Florida(3) -
For the casual fan, having George Mason in the Final Four is a surprise. Not so if anyone watched the preseason NIT earlier this year. Those fans remember the Drexel Dragons pushing Duke for 35 minutes before falling to the Blue Devils. Then the Dragons almost pulled off the upset against UCLA before mental errors in the final minute let the Bruins take the game. Drexel was predicted to finish in the bottom half of the Colonial conference, and they did. So, why should it be any surprise that the winner of the Colonial Conference, a conference that sported four twenty game winners, two of the final eight in the NIT and two bids in the NCAA tournament for the first time in over twenty years, should be able to compete at the top of its game?
Competing at the top of their game is exactly what George Mason will need to do if they want to continue their amazing run. The Gators have one of the deepest front lines in the game. Of course, so did Connecticut, the team that George Mason surprised to make its first Final Four appearance. But while Connecticut big men are deep, they don't run the floor like Florida. They don't have the ball handling skills like Florida. And they definitely don't have the tandem of Joakim Noah and Al Horford. The two were the keys to Florida's victory of Villanova to reach the Final Four and they will be the main key to Florida reaching Monday's championship game.
Noah and Horford have not only the post game, but they are able to handle the ball and pass as good as most guards in the league. The two will need to also step up their defense against Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Noah has been a consistent shot blocker all tournament long and his skills against Lewis and Thomas will both be pressed to score inside against him. Horford will provide the tough second defensive option inside to truly clog the middle and force the Patriot guards like Tony Skinn to beat them.
On the offensive side, Florida will also need a big contribution on the outside from Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey. Humphrey hits some big threes for the Gators down the stretch against Villanova and will be needed against the tough George Mason defense.
While the country is starting to come over to the George Mason side, including picking them second behind LSU for the championship, there is just too much athleticism on Florida to believe that the Patriots can pull off another upset. Of course, that is what everyone was saying back when George Mason was set to go against Connecticut. And we all know what happened there. The Florida Gators are turning forward the clock to midnight, turning Cinderella's magic ride back into a pumpkin.
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 79.00%
LSU(4) vs. UCLA(2) -
Many of the tournament games have been decided inside, especially those when LSU has been involved. Other than a last second shot which they needed to beat Texas A&M, LSU hasn't needed to worry too much about their guard play. Instead they have been living inside on the play of Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas. With Thomas jumping to the rafters and Davis holding off the lane, no one has been able to move inside against the Tigers.
So what makes the game against UCLA any different? It could be the play of Ryan Hollins, the seven foot tall center for the Bruins that has been holding off the middle all tournament long for them. Or maybe forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, the hero of the Gonzaga game. He certainly hasn't looked like a freshman throughout their four games to this point.
Chances are that the inside games of both of these teams are so evenly matched that the guard play is what will matter.
That is where UCLA should worry. They have been coming off some terrible shooting games when the ball has been more than two feet away from the rim. Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo might finally have to start hitting shots. Especially Afflalo, the Bruins' leading scorer this season who has been held in check for most of the tournament. Memphis's poor shooting was certainly talked about a lot, but the winners always get to write the history books. That is why a lot of people won't remember how poorly UCLA shot from the field and the free throw line in what was a closer than needed game between the two tops seeds in the Oakland Region.
You might think this is a good sign for LSU, but they haven't really needed top shooting from their guards in their games either.
So this may come down to the defense that UCLA and LSU put on the court and anything can happen. Garrett Temple's play against both Duke and Texas should be enough to have everyone believing in the Tigers but no one should be forgetting Farmar and the rest of the Bruins who shut down both Gonzaga and Memphis.
This game can go either way, and as the night cap, should be a fitting lead-in to the final game on Monday night.
MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 59.98%
Posted April 1, 2006 1:45 PM
Comments
To avoid spam we require you to log in to comment. Simply use your Facebook, Google or Yahoo login to verify you aren't a robot and post your thoughts on the site.
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
