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SEC West Preview: Hog Wild
August 24, 2006 | By Benjamin Miraski
While predicting the East isn’t going to ruffle a lot of feathers, the West could cause a little bit of contention. The SEC West should be hotly contested by the top 4 teams and really any prediction could have you in a winning position come the end of the season. Most of the big names have gone with one of the two Tigers, either Auburn or LSU. Seems like a safe pick, but let’s take a closer look at the SEC West.
Alabama – The Crimson Tide shocked a lot of teams last season, going 10-2 and just missing a chance to play in the SEC title game by collapsing during the final two weeks of the season. They were helped by having a top starting quarterback in Brodie Croyle. It’s too bad that Croyle is gone this season. Replacing him will most likely be John Parker Wilson who appeared in five games last season as a true freshman. As a new starter, he will have a big mountain to climb in the SEC. He should get some help from the running game, especially returning starter Kenneth Darby. Darby has two 1000-yard seasons under his belt and will need to keep it up for the Tide to roll. The reason that Darby will be so crucial is all the questions that Alabama have at receiver. When Tyrone Prothro went down last season with a sick broken leg, the spark went out of the offense. Prothro should be back at some point this season, but there are a lot of questions from the rest of the group. The offensive line could be the best in the SEC. With all the pressure that will be on the running game, they will have to be on. Unfortunately, the defensive can’t hold up to the one that roamed around last season. The backfield will be tested early and often and with a weak line backing core, they could be beaten often over the middle. They have some easy wins on the schedule, but without a bye week, they may be worn down by the time they take on LSU and Auburn to finish the season. Head coach Mike Shula will be looking to win his first Iron Bowl against Auburn and having the game in Tuscaloosa should help that cause.
Arkansas – The Razorbacks went with quarterback by committee last season and may end up resulting to that this year. They have a new offensive coordinator in Gus Malzahn and true freshman Mitch Mustain is familiar with his system. At least he should be since last year, Malzahn was his high school coach. Mustain won’t be forced to start the season as last year’s opening starter Robert Johnson has already been announced as the number one. The running game is probably the deepest in the country. It will be tested early as Darren McFadden will be missing the opening game against USC. He is recovering from an injury to his toe in a fight in a parking lot outside a club. At receiver, look for 6’5” Marcus Monk to be one of the top targets for any of the passers. The offensive line for Arkansas is usually very strong and this season should be no exception, even with new schemes from Malzahn. On defense, Keith Jackson (Woah Nellie… oh wait, not that Keith Jackson) will be anchoring the defensive line. Jackson is a big tackler inside and should help to stop the opposing rusher before they get to the linebackers, who are also an experienced unit. The defensive backs should also be very good as they return almost the entire unit from a team that performed well last season. The Razorbacks have one of the easier schedules in the SEC, missing out on Florida and Georgia. Their non-conference games won’t be tipping the BCS scales, except for the opener against USC. Arkansas will be looking to get some revenge from last year’s 70-17 loss in Los Angeles.
Auburn – Almost a consensus pick to win the West, Auburn has one of the top backfields in the country, even two years removed from losing one of the other top backfields. Junior starter Brandon Cox is coming off a very good season, after having to step in for graduated star Jason Campbell. Cox should be even better this season, improving on his 2300 yards and 15 touchdowns. Along with back Kenny Irons, they should have opposing defenses pulling their hair out. That is, only if the wide receivers can step up. They lack good experience and that could lead to a lot of drops and frustrating plays. The line should hold up well, despite losing both tackles from last season. Irons should see a lot of runs through the middle all season long. On defense, the strength will be in covering the passing game. Kenny’s brother David Irons will be a major fixture on this squad. Last year’s coverage team had 8 interceptions and should be able to improve that number this year. The danger might be up in the front seven. The defensive line only returns one starter but there is a bit of experience. They were a little weak in the rush defense last year and will need to do better this year if they hope to contend. Auburn will be missing two linebackers for the first three games, leading to a depth problem in that position. While the first two games might not be a worry, the game against LSU might expose this weakness. I still believe Auburn will come away with the win there but it might be closer than expected. Auburn is also without a bye week all season and that could come back to haunt them by the time they reach the Iron Bowl late in the season.
LSU – The other Tigers in the South were my pick last season. I called for them to go undefeated up to the National Championship game and then face a tough Miami team. Unfortunately for LSU, the Hurricanes they were worried about were named Katrina and Rita. Because of the changes brought about by the damage, LSU were forced to move their schedule around and finished with no bye weeks, wearing them down by the end of the year. They managed to recover to beat Miami in the Peach Bowl, but last season was one that got away. Unfortunately for LSU, their team coming back this year is not as good as last season. The quarterback spot should be strong with JaMarcus Russell
returning from the injuries that kept him out of the Peach Bowl, and Matt Flynn, the Peach Bowl offensive player of the game will be a strong back-up this year. At running back, a lot of players are returning from tough injuries and their durability could be a question, especially with the lack of depth that is returning on the offensive line. The line should be good, but any injuries could cause them issues. On defense, don’t look for much from the front seven. The defensive line that was one of the best in the country last year had huge losses to graduation and only one senior starter is projected. At linebacker, Ali Highsmith will still be around, but the rest of the group lack experience. The defensive backs will be tested trying to make up for the lack of strength up front. They may be worn down by the end of the season. While last season’s schedule was tough after the changes, this year’s is even worse. The Tigers are on the road at Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, and Arkansas. Big things are expected from the team, but it will be hard to overcome this schedule and by the end of the season, they will be wishing that 2005 had gone a little differently.
Mississippi – If you are looking for bright things from the Rebels, you might want to look elsewhere. The offense is put together with a bunch of transfers from other schools across the country. Quarterback Brent Schaeffer comes in to Oxford from Tennessee by way of junior college. Schaeffer showed some talent while on the Vols, but with a glut at quarterback and some academic issues forced him elsewhere. He barely qualified at Mississippi and they will be glad to have him. Running with Schaeffer will be another transfer, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, who comes from Indiana. While there, he averaged 3.8 yards per carry. He will have a hard time equaling that with the line at Mississippi, which has some good talent, but hasn’t overachieved. The receiving core is very young and, with a new quarterback throwing to them, it might take some time before they have it all together. On defense, the linebackers are the strength of the group, but they are going to be covering up a very poor defensive line which has no depth and no experience. Beating the rushing game could be a problem for the Rebels. The defensive backfield should be a little better but given the weakness of the line, they may be stuck covering receivers too long and be beat too many times. Despite all the issues on defense and offense, the Rebels have a schedule they can contend with. They may be good enough to sneak into a bowl spot, but a mid-season game against Alabama could decide whether they crack into playing into December.
Mississippi State – There is good news and bad news for fans in Starkville. The good news is that the defensive team should be actually very good. The bad news is that the starting offensive backfield is not. On defense, the Bulldogs have a huge mobile senior line. They should be pressuring quarterbacks all season long. In addition, their linebackers and defensive backs have good experience returning. The defense has improved each season under Sylvester Croom and this season should be no different. They could have one of the best defenses in the SEC. And it is a shame that won’t be enough for them to win many games. They lack experience at quarterback and running back. They will most likely be starting all freshmen to run the ball. Anthony Dixon is their best bet for an impact player, but it will be hard for a freshman to excel with the good squads in the SEC to go against. The good news for Mississippi State is that they return a very huge starting offensive line. Only the center is expected to be less than 300 pounds and this should lead the way for them to open up some big holes. Look out for left tackle Calvin Wilson. He is listed coming in as 6’5” and 356 pounds – definitely a big mass to run behind. The schedule isn’t kind to Mississippi State. They are on the road at Georgia, and have West Virginia coming to town. They close the season at Mississippi and the home team has won 6 of the last seven in that series.
Top Games in the West:
9/2: Arkansas and USC. We will find out a lot about these two teams quickly.
10/7: Arkansas goes to Auburn. This game will be huge in the West standings.
10/14: Florida comes to Auburn. If Auburn is a contender, they will need this win.
10/14: Mississippi travels to Alabama. This could decide if the Rebels are bowling again this season.
11/18: The Iron Bowl. Auburn and Alabama will be spent by the time they get here.
Predictions for the West:
- Arkansas (11-1, 7-1), Houston Nutt finally finds the winning combination. Lose to Florida in the SEC championship.
- Auburn (10-2, 6-2), Defense and schedule work against the Tigers winning the West again.
- Alabama (9-3, 5-3), The Tide are too vulnerable to the passing game, but get Iron Bowl win.
- LSU (7-5, 4-4), Last season was their year. Losses on defense just too much to overcome
- Mississippi (6-6, 3-5), With a few breaks, they might challenge for #4. Could be bowling again.
- Mississippi State (3-9, 0-8), Defense is there, offense is not.
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted August 24, 2006 9:00 AM
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