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October 4, 2006

Move Over TCU, Hello Boise State

Red X TCU HelmetJohn Beck didn't just win a big game for BYU and get a mention as my Heisman-like performance this week. He also ended what looked like a sure thing at the beginning of the season. I am talking about TCU's chances to break into the BCS crowd and become only the second team from a non-automatic qualifier school to do so.

We should know better when it comes to TCU. They have teased us before by rolling through a season with an almost perfect record. Back in 2003, the Horned Frogs began the season 10-0 before losing to Southern Mississippi in a big game. This year, they did their part in stopping the hype a bit earlier.

Boise State BroncosThis leaves the door open for another non-automatic qualifier school, who to this point has been a little bit under the radar. The Boise State Broncos are no strangers to undefeated seasons (see 2004), or talk about BCS games (also see 2004). Having been the top team in the WAC conference over the past four years, the Broncos have repeatedly flirted with BCS glory. However, the loss of their coach, Dan Hawkins, to Colorado at the end of last season had Boise State falling off of a lot of maps around the country.

Maybe we dismissed them a little bit early. Boise State is off to a 5-0 start with only one of the wins coming with less than 35 points on the board for the Broncos. They are currently rated #20 in the AP poll, #21 in the Coaches Poll, and #10 in the MRI. And even before the first BCS rankings have been released, they are already beginning the campaign, starting with the WAC commissioner, Karl Benson.

"Any team that were to finish the season 12-0 certainly is a deserving team and should be ranked in the Top 12," Commissioner Karl Benson said during his weekly conference call, where he was peppered with BCS questions. "I have confidence that the system will reward a 12-0 team."

While the commissioner seems confident, it might not be so easy. The BCS selection rules state that Boise State would need to finish higher than 12th in the final BCS rankings, or higher than 16th and beat one of the conference champions with an automatic berth. While it may seem counter-intuitive, they may have a better shot at doing the latter. The top ACC teams in the polls are currently listed in the teens, which could mean that if the ACC division winner with the lower rating wins the ACC championship game, there is good chance that Boise State might be ahead of them. Of course, that is still over 2 months away.

In a compilation of 14 expert ratings, including the MRI, and many of the components of the BCS ratings, Boise State is currently ranked 16th, meaning that they would have to continue to make an impression to move up, since it looks like they are on the verge of falling below the magic number. And considering that in that same poll, the fans have Boise State securely out of the Top 16, their performance so far hasn't exactly been noticed. In addition, it could mean that we will be in for a lot of complaining at the end of the season should Boise State break into the elite club, even given the expanded BCS field.

Keep this all in mind as Boise State takes on Louisiana Tech this weekend. Clemson clobbered the Bulldogs this past week 51-0, and Nebraska beat them 49-10 to begin the season. Those can be a couple of measuring sticks to hold Boise State's performance against.

Posted by bmiraski at October 4, 2006 8:00 AM

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