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Fallout From The Rutgers Win
November 10, 2006 | By Benjamin Miraski
Piscataway, New Jersey, celebrate. This might be the last time you get to this season. I hate to break it to you, but chances are you aren't going to a BCS game.
I know, this doesn't seem correct right now, knowing that you are still awash in the adrenaline from last night. But given your standing in the last BCS rankings (13) and how much you trailed the other Big East teams, it is likely you will be left out.
I know you are crying, "We can still win the Big East!" Yes, you might. I thought you would lose last night, which would have ended that chance. But my computer gave you a chance since you were playing at home. A 46% chance to be exact (Anyone else channeling Lloyd Christmas here: "So you're sayin' there's a chance!). And you lived up to the 46% and won.
But there is a bigger challenge on the horizon. Playing at West Virginia the last week of the season could be the game to decide the conference. Assuming that all three teams (West Virginia,Rutgers, and Louisville) win out the rest of the way, that final game will decide who goes to the BCS as the conference champion. There is little chance that any of the three will be in line for the #2 spot overall in the BCS. Therefore, the winner of the conference will only have a shot at the Orange Bowl.
The MRI, counting last night's game, give the Mountaineers a 64% chance of winning at home that final week. That will change as the next few weeks move along, but right now, it looks likely that all three teams will be tied with one loss in conference. According to the Big East website, the tiebreaker when there are three teams tied is to form a mini-conference of the tied teams. Because all the teams finished 1-1 in that little conference, the Big East champion will be the one rated highest in the BCS standings.
Based on what happened when Louisville beat West Virginia, I think we will see Rutgers being the higher team going into the game against the Mountaineers. But if the Mountaineers win, they would take over that lead again. West Virginia would be the Orange Bowl participant, with Louisville and Rutgers on the outside looking in.
Rutgers might get shafted even more. Because bowls have the ultimate decision on the teams they invite, the Gator Bowl might decide to choose Louisville, the team with the "bigger draw" if you can say that about the Cardinals. The Scarlet Knights might not be any better off than before last night, headed to the Texas Bowl.
Of course, you can prove me wrong and win on December 2nd. You can once again be the underdog based on the numbers and come out on top. But 36% is not 46%.
Sorry Rutgers. I hope you enjoyed your time on top.
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted November 10, 2006 6:00 PM
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