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December 24, 2006
2006 Bowl Predictions - Part 3
The MRI is off to a great start, even with the less than interesting games which have been on the slate so far. With two losses on the tally, the MRI has great hope going into the remainder of the bowl season. But enough about me, let's look at some more games, and where the true favorite should be.
Motor City Bowl
I mentioned during the MAC Championship game preview that the winner got a chance to go back to Detroit and play in the Motor City bowl. At least that is normally what happens. Detroit made sure to lock in the best and most surprising team in the MAC before the championship game was even played. Dan LeFevour, the fabulous freshman quarterback was a big reason for the Chippewa success this year, and a return to Detroit should not be any difference. Central Michigan drew Middle Tennessee State in the bowl. This is the first bowl appearance for the Blue Raiders, and their loss to Sun Belt Conference Champion Troy was the difference between them playing here and playing in New Orleans. They make the bowl based on there not being enough Big Ten teams to fill all of the conference's slots. The Blue Raiders feature a strong defensive line (Erik Walden, Tavares Jones) so Central Michigan may not run away with this game as should be expected. However, the MAC squad is definitely the better team here.
MRI Predicts: Central Michigan Confidence factor: 77.78%, 17 out of 32
Emerald Bowl
Florida State had bigger hopes at the beginning of the year. They were by far the favorite to win their division in the ACC. That didn't happen. They were favored by some to win the conference and go to a BCS bowl. That didn't happen. In a year of tough breaks, including the firing/resignation of their offensive coordinator, Jeff Bowden, the Seminoles needed a pick me up, and that was finishing 6-6 and bowl eligible. Drew Weatherford has already been tabbed as the starter, despite some people thinking a switch to Xavier Lee would now be the correct move. Bobby Bowden was playing it close to the vest on what the plan would be for Lee in the bowl game. UCLA comes in after the biggest game of their season, defeating USC, and keeping the Trojans out of the National Championship game. The duo defensive ends of Justin Hickman and Bruce Davis will likely be in the face of Weatherford all game, which makes his selection to start even more confusing. With the quick defensive line, you would think you would favor the more mobile Lee to start. On offense, the Bruins will be looking to do well with the passing game, although they haven't tabbed their starting quarterback as of yet. Patrick Cowan has been doing well as the starter since replacing Ben Olsen because of injury and played a big part in the win against USC. Both teams have a great rushing defense, and therefore the passing game will be a big part here. I give the edge to UCLA, if only because Florida State's offensive line has been... well, offensive this season and the UCLA pass rush is brutal.
MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 55.07%, 3 out of 32
Independence Bowl
Alabama didn't want to be here. Without a head coach, down badly from last season's magical 10-2 season, this was not the Alabama which was expected on the field. Throughout the year, they struggled on offense, especially in the passing game, although the running of Kenneth Darby has been a bright spot for them. Now, they need to deal with a very balanced offense in Oklahoma State. The Cowboys limped into the bowl game with two losses to end the season, but they played Oklahoma very well in their final loss. Oklahoma State also had a big win against Nebraska a few games earlier which is probably their signature win on the year. The Cowboys have shown they can play well against a rushing offense, and that passing attacks can be their undoing. John Parker Wilson will have to do well then for the Crimson Tide if they are going to have a hope in this game. I think, with all the uncertainty in Tuscaloosa, that this one is going for the Cowboys.
MRI Predicts: Oklahoma State Confidence factor: 52.76%, 8 out of 32
Holiday Bowl
Cal has a history in the Holiday Bowl, mostly because they have trouble breaking through and winning the PAC-10. And unfortunately for Cal, the history isn't good. Their last appearance here came on the heels of a 10-1 season back in 2004 when some lobbying by Mack Brown kept the Bears out of the Rose Bowl. Cal laid an egg against Texas Tech. Cal was picked to win the PAC-10 this season in some outlets (including MRISports.com), but some inconsistent play and some surprising wins by the USC, kept the Bears from passing the Trojans this season. Now, back again in the Holiday Bowl, they get Texas A&M to try and earn some revenge against. The Bears will bring their attack of Nate Longshore, Marshawn Lynch, and DeSean Jackson to San Diego for this one. Against a pretty good Texas A&M defense, they will need to mix it up often to move the ball. Don't forget that the Aggies were able to stop what had been a very good Texas offense, even if Colt McCoy was beat up a little headed into (and out of) the game. The Aggies cause turnovers, and that could be the difference for them in this game. Even with Jorvorskie Lane and Stephen McGee on the side of the Aggies, I think Cal has too many weapons, and even if the Holiday Bowl is not where they would want to be, I think they can win.
MRI Predicts: Cal Confidence factor: 71.60%, 11 out of 32
Texas Bowl
If the Big East wants to prove that it wasn't just a league that was overrated, this is the first chance to really show it. They already have one win by South Florida, but it came against East Carolina. Now Rutgers gets their chance to play a team from another BCS conference and help the Big East gain some more respect. In what has been a dream season by the Scarlet Knights, they can finish with 11 wins for only the second time ever in the history of the school, a history that includes the first football game ever played at the college level. Behind Mike Teel and Ray Rice, the boys from Piscataway have been the talk of the Northeast all season long. Kansas State shouldn't be an issue for the Scarlet Knights, although they do have a pretty intense pass rush. Josh Freeman is the young starter for the Wildcats and his play could mean the difference between this being a blow out or a classic close game. Rutgers has too much to play for here, and needs to truly assert that it has arrived as an elite program. Look for New Jersey to be celebrating once more this season.
MRI Predicts: Rutgers Confidence factor: 76.58%, 28 out of 32
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at December 24, 2006 5:05 PM
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