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December 31, 2006
2006 Bowl Predictions - Part 6
Few saw that one coming. Georgia, down 18, rallies back to beat what was probably the best team in the ACC by the end of the year. This was the Georgia team with little offense, that looked like they were throwing away the game in the first half, and yet, they end as the Pea...Chick-Fil-A Bowl champs.
Of course the opposite happened too. Everyone thought that Texas Tech would win, and they had to make the biggest comeback in bowl history in order to beat Minnesota. I was sitting there watching the television and couldn't believe my eyes as the Minnesota score continues to tick up while the Red Raiders were stuck on zero. And then, once I had given up all hope, of course they manage to come back. Football is a strange game.
So, more amazing feats to add to our bowl season checklist: Oregon State shows cajones going for two to win instead of just going to overtime, and gets it. Steve Aponavicius goes from goat to hero with a last second field goal to beat Navy. Iowa learned how to play football in the last month, but still lost to a superior Texas team. Rutgers was that good this year. Cal didn't give up on their season. Clemson's kicker did.
Six more games kick off on New Year's Day. Let's take a look at them all from morning to night.
Outback Bowl
This wasn't the same magical season for Penn State as last year, but this team was underrated overall. Yes, they lost big in the games that they lost, but look at the records of the opponents that beat them. 4 combined losses for the four teams that beat them. That is pretty stiff competition. Joe Paterno still showed that he could make the most from what he has on the field, breaking in a new quarterback (Anthony Morelli) which could have Penn State back on top next year. And the Nittany Lions have a punishing defense which has improved as the season moved on. They will need it against the team which did come back from the dead this season. Tennessee was an after thought for some, and a cautious contender pick for many. Bringing back David Cutcliffe to run the offense has turned Erik Ainge from another quarterback bust into one of the top quarterbacks in the nation this season. He has plenty of weapons to throw to, including speedster Robert Meachem, who averaged almost 19 yards per reception. Penn State may have been underrated but Tennessee has more talent and has been the more consistent team all year long. Look for the Vol passing game to give Penn State fits and as long as Erik Ainge doesn't suddenly revert to last season's form (can you say interceptions galore?), Tennessee should be taking this one.
MRI Predicts: Tennessee Confidence factor: 71.18%, 14 out of 32
Cotton Bowl
It's nice to see Nebraska back and competing again. Sure, they didn't seem to compete very well in the Big XII championship game where they came away with the loss that sent them here to the Cotton Bowl, but they did compete during the regular season. They came very close to knocking off Texas earlier in the season, and they played well enough to almost make it through the Big XII undefeated. They get Auburn in the Cotton Bowl, and there is probably no team that was picked to win more often in the pre-season. And Auburn disappointed despite a 10-2 record. 10-2 would be a great season for a lot of teams, but losses to Arkansas and Georgia don't make for happy Tiger fans, especially when it means you are left out of the SEC championship. Auburn also has a number of defensive players suspended for this game which could prove troublesome. This game will come down to how well Auburn is able to move against Nebraska's defense. Kenny Irons and Brandon Cox will have to do more than they have done lately if the Tigers hope to go home winners. The defense also has to stop Zac Taylor from getting rolling at any point in this game. The more confidence he gets in the pocket for Nebraska, the more trouble the Tigers will be in. Auburn should prevail in this game, but the Cornhuskers have the determination to come away with their 10th win of the season. Look for a close battle that could be decided in the final minutes, likely with a crucial defensive play.
MRI Predicts: Auburn Confidence factor: 71.18%, 16 out of 32
Capital One Bowl
From Auburn to Arkansas, the team that did surprise this season. Yes, I did pick them to win the West in the SEC, and then shuddered for 60 minutes as I watched them dismantled by USC. However, Arkansas came back, despite quarterback struggles and changes, despite all the odds, mostly on the back of Darren McFadden. McFadden only ran himself to second place in the Heisman race, and will likely be the pre-season pick for that award next year. Right now, he will have to figure out how to get through Wisconsin's tough run defense, along with running mate Felix Jones. One thing to remember here for Arkansas on offense. Auburn was supposed to have great stopping power against the run too and Arkansas ran all over them. Same with Florida in the SEC championship game. Arkansas is tough to stop. And yet, if anyone can do it, it might be Wisconsin who had the best defense in the Big Ten. Better than Ohio State's, better than Michigan's. Those are the teams you heard about, not the Badgers. For their own part on offense, Wisconsin will feature back PJ Hill who completed a nice freshman season with over 1500 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. Arkansas gives up some yards on the ground and should be vulnerable to the quick Hill. On offense for the Badgers, also watch tackle Joe Thomas who will most likely be among the first 10 players taken in the NFL draft. Should Wisconsin pass the ball much, Thomas will be protecting either John Stocco (shoulder?), or Tyler Donovan, long enough that they can eat sandwiches. The computer and I (despite my pre-season pick) think that Wisconsin's defense is enough to turn this towards them, but don't count out McFadden or Gus Malzahn's offense completely.
MRI Predicts: Wisconsin Confidence factor: 77.11%, 18 out of 32
Gator Bowl
West Virginia wanted to be playing for the National Title, but their defense let them down a few times this season. But let's be clear, Georgia Tech's offense is not Louisville, is not Rutgers. The Mountaineers can be vulnerable, but the connection of Yellow Jackets quarterback Reggie Ball to Calvin Johnson isn't what it should be. Running back Tashard Choice will need to step up big for Georgia Tech if they hope to even compete in this game. Why? Georgia Tech hasn't faced an offense like West Virginia all season. The spread option attack is difficult to counter. You have to be able to get outside quickly. You have to be able to defend the pass. You can't let the two headed monster of Pat White and Steve Slaton get the best of you with their trickery. Jackets defensive coordinator Joe Tenuta knows all that, but this is a lot to prepare for, even if your team has been sensational against the run all season long. It won't take much for West Virginia to open up a lead on Georgia Tech that is impossible for the stagnant offense of the Yellow Jackets to come back from. Georgia Tech is also reeling from losing to Wake Forest, of all teams, in the ACC championship. This one has Mountaineers written all over it, which probably means Georgia Tech will find a way to make a game of it. Still, the safe money is on Slaton helping West Virginia to run away with this one.
MRI Predicts: West Virginia Confidence factor: 65.81%, 25 out of 32
Rose Bowl
The Rose Bowl roses might seem a little more thorny this season than ever before, but Michigan and USC will still want to prove that they deserved more this season. Both teams feature very good defenses which is nothing new. One thing we know though is that Michigan has found a way to overcome those good defenses this season while USC has consistently struggled when the defense has been just above average. Michael Hart just announced that he will be returning next year for Michigan which gives them a great chance at a National Title next year. This season, he will want a Rose Bowl win. Hart is good enough to break through the USC defense, like he did against Wisconsin, like he did against Ohio State. Watch for USC to concentrate more than their fair share on stopping the back. That might leave Chad Henne enough room to get to the speedy Michigan receivers, who are at full strength for this battle. USC meanwhile will have to see if they can exploit the slower Michigan secondary, much like Ohio State did. Michigan has shown flashes of brilliance against the passing game (see Notre Dame), but USC's receivers Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith, are some of the fastest in the game. If Leon Hall can return to form though, he should be able to neutralize at least half of that combination. And that should be long enough for LaMarr Woodley and Prescott Burgess to add into the pass rush and turn John David Booty to mush. This one should be a classic, much like the last two Rose Bowls, with the slight edge to the boys in blue.
MRI Predicts: Michigan Confidence factor: 53.25%, 1 out of 32
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma seems to be able to rotate anyone into their lineup and win, at least this season. And now, the one man that they thought they would be counting on more than anything else this season has returned. Adrian Peterson has returned from his shoulder injury and should be able to provide at least some of the rushing attack for the Sooners against Boise State. That is bad news for the Broncos. Good news? Boise State has one of the better rushing defenses in the nation, although against much inferior competition. Good news? Boise State generates turnovers, which a less than 100% shoulder for Peterson might be susceptible to. Good news? Boise State has their own great back in Ian Johnson who only led the nation in rushing touchdowns this season. And he didn't do it only against the WAC. Johnson had 5 touchdowns against a certain Oregon State team who has pulled an upset or two this year. Plus the Broncos quarterback Jared Zabransky is just a little better than average. Together, they back one of the most potent offenses in the game, one that only scored less than 30 points twice this season, and less than 20 once. The key for Oklahoma will be making sure they have enough balance on offense. Paul Thompson will need to be smart with his throws because the speed of Oklahoma can beat the Boise State defensive backs. The computer likes Boise State and why shouldn't it? The Broncos have put some impressive numbers together this year. And Boise State has a lot to play for, being only the second non-BCS team to crash the BCS party. I am going to have to disagree with the microchips on this one. Oklahoma should be too fast, but don't expect them to totally shut down Boise State. This one should be a shootout with Oklahoma the better of the two teams in the end.
MRI Predicts: Boise State Confidence factor: 77.11%, 22 out of 32
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at December 31, 2006 3:00 PM
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