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December 20, 2006

Does Wichita State Warrant Their Ranking

Wichita State is flying high, but should they be #8?Before I begin, let me say, I am of the mind that the Missouri Valley is the 7th best conference in the country. They deserve multiple tournament bids, and likely should get three or four this season. There is no doubt that from top to bottom, that is a tough conference to win in, and it can compete with the teams from the top 6 conferences. We have already seen wins this year to show us that. MIssouri State beat Wisconsin, Northern Iowa took out Iowa State and Iowa, Southern Illinois won against Virginia Tech, and Wichita State beat LSU and Syracuse.

Wichita State. They are one of five teams without a loss after beating Kennesaw State on Tuesday night. As a result, they have rocketed up the rankings to #8 in the country. I, however, am not sure the high praise is warranted.

Ken Pomeroy covered the Shockers earlier this week, looking at their schedule. To summarize, Pomeroy believes that Wichita State has one marquis win, coming on the road against LSU. The Tigers aren't as strong as everyone expected coming into the season, but they are still among the elite programs in the league and therefore, winning on their home turf is something to cheer about.

Other wins on the road that look good are Syracuse, George Mason, and Wyoming. Pomeroy dismisses the George Mason win, because they are definitely not the same team they were last season, and Wyoming is still coming back after a few off years. They may be 7-2 but they are not yet back to where they were a few years ago when beating Wyoming was a major win.

Syracuse is the one team that Pomeroy withheld judgement on. I think I might be ready to declare this less than impressive. The Orange lost to Drexel on Tuesday night. While I am excited that the Dragons managed their second Big East win of the year against Syracuse, it also came at the Carrier Dome. You have to wonder if the Orange have lost their mystique to drop two games now at a place that used to be an automatic loss for the visiting team, especially to teams like Wichita or Drexel. Since Carmelo Anthony left, they have not been the same team. Even that year, it took an amazing run in the tournament to get the title, something that was not expected from such a young team. Without Anthony though, the team struggled. With the Big East season still to come, it is doubtful that the Orange will end up in the top six of that league, and they will likely be scrambling to finish in the top half an be in position for a tournament bid.

Back to Wichita State, you have to wonder why they are getting so much attention then in the polls, given their schedule so far. Sure, going undefeated is a big feat, but to say that they are the 8th best team in the country might be stretching it.

Here are the other four teams without a blemish: UCLA, Clemson, Oregon, and Connecticut. Let's take a look at the computer rankings of those four teams.

UCLA - Pomeroy: 12, Sagarin: 1, Colley: 1, Massey: 1, MRI: 11...Avg: 5.2
Oregon - Pomeroy: 18, Sagarin: 5, Colley: 8, Massey: 10, MRI: 6...Avg: 9.4
Clemson - Pomeroy: 29, Sagarin: 6, Colley: 5, Massey: 7, MRI: 1...Avg: 9.6
Connecticut - Pomeroy: 7, Sagarin: 10, Colley: 26, Massey: 26, MRI: 4...Avg: 14.6

As to be expected, those four teams are at the top of the computer rankings. They may not be #1, based on how each computer determines strength of schedule, but they are all contenders on average. Now look at Wichita State

Wichita State - Pomeroy: 40, Sagarin: 8, Colley: 10, Massey: 8, MRI: 42...Avg: 21.6

They end up over #20 on average, and while some computers see them in the top 10, there are two here which do not. Without bias, I can say having the MRI agree with Ken Pomeroy at least means that the MRI is not too out of line on its view of the Shockers. Compared on average with the computer rankings, the human positioning of the Shockers just doesn't seem correct.

Now, it is no coincidence that the two computer rankings which have Wichita State out of the Top 25 are the ones that have their creators writing about the over reaction to the perfect record and the #8 ranking. Honestly, if Wichita State can get through the Missouri Valley Conference with only 2 or 3 losses, I think they definitely deserve their position in the top 10.

Every other team in a conference in the top 6 (read BCS) will have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to losing a couple of games in conference. However, we know that Wichita State will not be allowed that same leeway when it comes to losing, especially if the losses come against teams like Drake, Illinois State, or Indiana State. I do hope they can do it and manage to get a top 4 seed in the tournament, if only to see the look on Billy Packer's face when he has to announce the bracket.

But for right now, let's hold off on anointing Wichita State as a top 10 team. 40% of your computer friends feel very differently, and 60% have them barely in that position. Let's wait and see what happens when they play Missouri State, a team which is ranked higher in both the Pomeroy and MRI computers.


Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at December 20, 2006 6:20 PM

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