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January 30, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #2
What does the number 10 mean? It is the number of Big East teams that would qualify for the tournament according to the MRI. When last year, there was huge talk of the conference finally breaking the 8 team barrier, this year, the teams are getting the benefit of a very soft bubble in the MRI to sneak 10 in as of the end of January.
What does the number 1 mean? It is the number of Missouri Valley teams that are currently in the MRI bracket. How can the #7 conference in the land get only one bid while the Mountain West is slated for three times that? The Missouri Valley teams are very good, but the conference is so good from top to bottom that the top teams can't break away from the bottom of their league. They get upset, and not just at the top of the standings, but all the way down to the Drakes and Illinois States. As such, they are getting one team in although there are a number of teams on the outside who can make a big run and get those other tournament spots. It seems amazing that a conference which should have received 5 bids last season can barely scrape up 1 this year.
Check out all of Tournament Projection #2
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | Big Sky: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | Texas | #9 | Arkansas | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Georgetown | #12 | WCC:Gonzaga | ||
| #4 | Air Force | #13 | MAC: Akron | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #3 | UCLA | #14 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| #6 | Providence | #11 | Louisville | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Michigan | #10 | Missouri | ||
| #2 | Memphis | #15 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | play-in: MEAC: Delaware State vs. SWAC:Jackson State | ||
| #8 | Georgia Tech | #9 | Nevada | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #5 | Arizona | #12 | A-10: Xavier | ||
| #4 | Marquette | #13 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Ohio State | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Villanova | #11 | Washington State | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #7 | Virginia Commonwealth | #10 | Syracuse | ||
| #2 | Duke | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #1 | Pittsburgh | #16 | OVC: Austin Peay | ||
| #8 | Missouri State | #9 | Illinois | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Maryland | #12 | Alabama | ||
| #4 | Oregon | #13 | Patriot: Holy Cross | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Michigan State | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Kentucky | #11 | Washington | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #7 | Virginia Tech | #10 | UNLV | ||
| #2 | Kansas | #15 | NORTHEAST: Robert Morris | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Texas A&M | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State | ||
| #8 | Butler | #9 | Florida State | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Indiana | #12 | BYU | ||
| #4 | Notre Dame | #13 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #3 | Clemson | #14 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| #6 | Connecticut | #11 | Georgia | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | West Virginia | #10 | Oklahoma | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | BIG WEST: Cal State Fullerton | ||
| East plays West, South plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (10), ACC (7), Big 10 (6), SEC (5), Pac-10 (5), Big 12 (4), Mountain West (3) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Connecticut, Missouri State | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Maryland, West Virginia | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Alabama, BYU, Washington, Georgia | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Oklahoma State, LSU, Boston College, Tennessee | |||||
| Toughest Region: MidWest (St. Louis, MO) | |||||
| Easiest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) and West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Posted by bmiraski at 4:15 PM | Comments (1)
January 29, 2007
MRI2006: Week 10 - North Carolina Runaway
38.64.
That is the difference between being #1 and being #2 as of the end of January. And #2 is nowhere close to #3. After the top two teams, it just falls into a struggle to think you are among the elite.
Yes, at this point, North Carolina has pulled away from the field in the spirit of a Tiger Woods. With a grand lead over the #2 Florida Gators, and an even more amazing lead over #3 Texas A&M, the Tar Heels have established a new standard for dominance at this point of the season. At this current rate, having also had a number of the biggest one week gains this season, there is little doubt that North Carolina could make a serious run for the best computer number ever, and with a lead over the #2 team like we have never seen.
I know there are losses coming on the schedule for North Carolina, but a lead like this in the computer numbers makes you wonder what it would take to just slow down the Tar Heels come tournament time.
Check out all the rankings in week 10 of the MRI.
| And Now the Rankings | |||||
| Teams Dropped From The Top 25: | |||||
| Michigan (LW #19, TW #26), Georgia Tech (LW #23, TW #31), Oklahoma (LW #25, TW #37) | |||||
| Other Teams People Might Care About | |||||
| Last Place this week: North Florida (0-19) at -90.38. | |||||
| Biggest Gain this week: North Carolina gained 17.83 points (Beat Wake Forest and Arizona) | |||||
| Biggest Loss this week: Texas Pan-American lost 18.87 points (Lost to North Dakota State and South Dakota State) | |||||
| Conference rankings this week: ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, PAC-10, MVC, Mountain West, C-USA, WAC, Atlantic 10 | |||||
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 6:00 PM | Comments (0)
January 23, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #1
Just thinking of posting this worries me. After last year's mess with Marquette, I can only imagine the craziness that this year's posting will bring out. First of all, remember, this is only through the games of January 21st. That means that all the losses that Duke has taken aren't in here. The losses that Oklahoma will take over the next two games after that point are not in here. Oklahoma State has yet to recover after a few tough losses, and the Missouri Valley is still an enigma that we are are trying to deal with.
Let me give you a different way to look at this projection, which will likely not jibe with any of the other projections will you will find on the Internet. Remember last year when I had George Mason as a 4 or 5 seed for most of the projections? Basically, the MRI was projecting that George Mason would behave as a #4 or #5 seed in the tournament based on how they had performed to date. That didn't mean the committee would honestly give them that seed (their actual seed was much lower), but it meant that they might surprise and perform to a #4 or #5 level. Now, it is always dependant on who they are slotted to play in the tournament. I didn't have them better than a North Carolina, or a Connecticut last season. So, in actuality, when the bracket came out, I had them going out in the second round. It didn't mean I didn't think they were still worthy of a #4 or #5. It just meant that I thought North Carolina was worthy of more like a #3 or #2 seed last season.
So, I know that won't quiet the critics, but I also know that the MRI managed to get 75% of the tournament games correct last season, which is more than most of the nation got right if ESPN is any indication. And picking round by round, well, that is an even better number. Just a thought.
With that said, here are the first round of tournament projections, and remember, that as of this posting, it is 3 weeks to the old.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | OVC: Morehead State | ||
| #8 | Arkansas | #9 | Illinois | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Marquette | #12 | A-10:Xavier | ||
| #4 | Air Force | #13 | WCC: Gonzaga | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Pittsburgh | #14 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| #6 | Kentucky | #11 | Texas Tech | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Maryland | #10 | West Virginia | ||
| #2 | UCLA | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | play-in: MEAC: Delaware State vs. SWAC:Jackson State | ||
| #8 | Butler | #9 | Syracuse | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Arizona | #12 | Boston College | ||
| #4 | Michigan State | #13 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Kansas | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Villanova | #11 | Washington State | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Missouri State | #10 | Tennessee | ||
| #2 | Clemson | #15 | BIG WEST: Long Beach State | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Texas A&M | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: Belmont | ||
| #8 | Florida State | #9 | Virginia Commonwealth | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #5 | Michigan | #12 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| #4 | Connecticut | #13 | MAC: Akron | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Ohio State | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Providence | #11 | UNLV | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #7 | Alabama | #10 | Texas | ||
| #2 | Duke | #15 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | BIG SKY: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | Georgetown | #9 | Virginia Tech | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Indiana | #12 | Missouri | ||
| #4 | Oregon | #13 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #3 | Notre Dame | #14 | PATRIOT: Holy Cross | ||
| #6 | Georgia Tech | #11 | Nevada | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | Oklahoma | #10 | LSU | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | NORTHEAST: Robert Morris | ||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (9), ACC (8), Big 10 (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Pac-10 (4), Mountain West (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Georgetown, Texas, Boston College | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Missouri State, Syracuse, Texas Tech | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Missouri, Texas Tech, Boston College, UNLV | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Mississippi State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Louisville | |||||
| Toughest Region: West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Easiest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Posted by bmiraski at 6:20 PM | Comments (0)
January 22, 2007
MRI2006: Week 9 - 20-25 Shuffle
Looking at this in retrospect, it is becoming very clear to me how wide open the field for the tournament might be. After about the top 15 teams, which still have their flaws, there is a mass of teams who can't decide if they wan't to compete or just drop away. Usually this mass of teams happens closer to the bubble numbers on the MRI, but this year it is seemingly taking over the final 5 spots of the top 25.
As I get closer to the current date, this will be something for me to continue to watch.
Check out all the rankings in week 9 of the MRI.
| And Now the Rankings | |||||
| Teams Dropped From The Top 25: | |||||
| Maryland (LW #18, TW #27), Alabama (LW #22, TW #28), Texas (LW #24, TW #33), Missouri State (LW #25, TW #29) | |||||
| Other Teams People Might Care About | |||||
| Last Place this week: Winston-Salem (1-19) at -82.97. 4th week in a row. | |||||
| Biggest Gain this week: Oklahoma gained 17.41 points (Beat Nebraska and Baylor) | |||||
| Biggest Loss this week: North Florida lost 16.43 points (Lost to Kennesaw State, Stetson, and Mercer) | |||||
| Conference rankings this week: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, PAC-10, Big 12, MVC, Mountain West, C-USA, WAC, Atlantic 10 | |||||
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 9:30 AM | Comments (0)
January 15, 2007
MRI2006: Week 8 - Back and Better than Ever
Ok, not so much better than ever, but still back. I apologize for the lapse in posting. Sometimes, the job that pays the bills overcomes the job that I enjoy doing late at night over beers and with a television shouting Dick Vitale at me.
Slowly catching up, but as you know, basketball brings out the Tournament Projects starting with Week #9, which means that I am slightly behind schedule there. Look for updates as I have them. I guarantee that by the midway point of February, I will be caught up and bringing you the knowledge to help you win your office pool.
And with that, check out all the rankings from Week 8 of the MRI.
| And Now the Rankings | |||||
| Teams Dropped From The Top 25: | |||||
| West Virginia (LW #19, TW #29), Tennessee (LW #22, TW #34), Illinois (LW #23, TW #30), Michigan (LW #24, TW #33), Villanova (LW #25, TW #32) | |||||
| Other Teams People Might Care About | |||||
| Last Place this week: Winston-Salem (0-18) at -77.90. 3rd week in a row. | |||||
| Biggest Gain this week: George Mason gained 18.97 points (Beat UNC-Wilmington, Towson, and James Madison) | |||||
| Biggest Loss this week: Charleston Southern lost 22.65 points (Lost to Winthrop and VMI) | |||||
| Conference rankings this week: ACC, Big Ten, SEC, Big East, PAC-10, Big 12, MVC, Mountain West, C-USA, WAC, Atlantic 10 | |||||
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 9:50 PM | Comments (0)
January 11, 2007
Top 10 On the Field Moments
I guess it is appropriate that my football articles fall under the title of "On The Field", as today I am going to reveal what I thought were the top 10 moments on the field.
An "On the Field" moment is one that was truly something to watch. It doesn't need to be a good thing, as you will see, but it is something that changed the college football landscape this season. That means the game, or moment, fit one of three categories for me:
- The game was crucial to the BCS. I am not just talking about "this team won, so it moved up in the rankings". I am talking about those games that truly decided the BCS. And no, the SEC championship is not on the list.
- The game redefined what we thought about a team, a league, or a very important player. There weren't too many games like this over the course of the season, but there were enough.
- The game's result had major off the field ramifications. Maybe a coach gets fired, maybe a team suspends people, maybe an entire system is put under the microscope. You get the idea.
I looked back over the entire list of games this year to pick these out, and I had to make two cuts because after just the first week, I had 10 games that were big because they either made a strong announcement about a team or raised some serious doubts.
So with that, let's go to the list.
10. Hello Razorbacks, Arkansas d. Auburn, 27-10: Just making the cut at #10 was the arrival of Arkansas. After they lost the first game of the year in pretty sad fashion to USC, I was beginning to doubt my SEC West pick. This game proved that they had actually arrived. Darren McFadden ran all over the Auburn Tigers and Gus Malzahn pulled out all the stops in his high school-style playbook to win. This was the game when Arkansas's Reggie Fish crouched behind the offensive line and hopped his way from the huddle. He broke on a direct snap and Auburn never saw him until he was 15 yards down the field. Arkansas only lost one SEC game on their way to the West title and eventually, a spot in the Capital One Bowl. They came out of nowhere, without a quarterback, and with less that stellar pre-season ratings, but they definitely arrived on this day in October.
9. "Waterlogged Colt", Kansas State d. Texas, 45-42: It may seem insignificant, but the Texas loss to Kansas State probably not only cost Texas their chance at the Big XII title, but also a shot at repeating as National Champions. How? Fab frosh Colt McCoy went down early from a hit and had to be replaced by his back-up Jevan Snead (who has now transferred to Mississippi). McCoy never returned in the game, and although Texas made it close, their offense was not the same without him. He was still feeling the effects of the hit the next week against Texas A&M, when he was again knocked out later in that game. The Longhorns lost the Big XII South by losing those two games in a row. What about the National Championship? Before Kansas State pulled the upset, Texas was climbing back up the national rankings. Should the Longhorns have won out, there is a good chance they would have earned the rematch against Ohio State in the championship game. This loss, and the injury to McCoy cost them that chance and basically any chance at a BCS game.
8. Notre Dame d. Michigan State, 40-37: Brady Quinn engineered maybe his biggest win of the season by coming back against Michigan State in this game early in November. The Irish had just lost badly to Michigan the week before and a loss here could have tanked the rest of the season for Notre Dame. The Irish were down 37-21 with less than half a quarter to go, and Quinn, along with some help from Michigan State's fumbly offense, help the Golden Domers to a win. This game was important for two reasons. First, it saved the Notre Dame season. There were honest comparisons between the Ty Willingham era (who still got a raw deal) and the Charlie Weis era being thrown about before this game. They were able to dispel those thoughts. Second, it marked the downfall of Michigan State. Michigan State lost the next week to Illinois of all teams, and only won a single game the rest of the year. Yes, that game was the largest comeback in the history of college football. But that was against Northwestern, a team that had no business leading the Spartans like they did. This loss was also the start of the farewell tour for John L. Smith, he of the face-slapping post-game news conference.
7. National Championship Game, Florida d. Ohio State, 41-14: You may be thinking it is crazy that this game is so far down in the standings, but really the top games had more impact on the BCS, the game, and the teams involved than this single championship. Plus, this game was overshadowed a week earlier by a little team from Idaho. The extension of the bowl season almost made this the anti-climax of the year, putting the game on Monday night, after the NFL playoffs had begun. Not many outside of the Gainesville family thought Florida had a chance in this one, and after Ohio State's Ted Ginn ran back the opening kick, the better part of the nation thought they were correct. However, Florida's speed proved to be too much for the Buckeyes and earned the Gators and Chris Leak the title. This was the second time that Urban Meyer's magic took hold in his second year at a school. Something tells me that magic might be working for a long time.
6. UCLA d. USC, 13-9: Florida may not have had their chance to win that title if UCLA hadn't pulled off this miracle against USC on the final week of the year. While everyone was wondering who would finish third, since it seemed almost a foregone conclusion that USC was going to the championship game, UCLA was concerned with one thing - Beating the Trojans. It took some great defensive play to shut down USC, who looked almost as good during the season as they had last year with all of those first round draft picks on the field. So many close calls for the Trojans over the course of the season made another upset almost a definite. UCLA just got to be the one with the glory and in spectacular style. It was too bad they couldn't repeat the feat against Florida State in the Emerald Bowl, or they might be favored more going into 2007's season.
5. #1 vs. #2 Redux, Ohio State d. Michigan, 42-39: This was the one single game that decided a place in the National championship. Yes, we thought USC would have gone had they beaten UCLA. Yes, Florida needed to beat Arkansas in the SEC Championship in order to pass Michigan in the polls. This game though was the only one where the winner was guaranteed to be playing on January 8, 2007. And to make it mean a little more, Bo Schembechler died just a day before the big game. An Ohio born man, and a Michigan ex-coach, Schembechler was the face of this game for more than a decade. And fittingly, both teams played their hearts out, and it was a very clean game back and forth. Despite all of the scoring, there was never a moment where it seemed like Ohio State was going to lose their grip on the game. Yes, they got a little help from a roughing the quarterback penalty on a long third down, but Ohio State was constantly in charge and Michigan, despite all of their offense, was continually the one catching up. The Buckeyes deserved their title shot after winning this one, and we never did get that rematch.
4. Replay Mess, Oregon "d." Oklahoma, 34-33: Other than game #5 on my list, and the bowls, I don't think any game got more coverage and press time than Oregon's "win" over Oklahoma thanks to two blown replay calls. The PAC-10 officials, which the conference mandates officiate the non-conference home games, definitely gave a new meaning to "home field advantage" after this. Oklahoma had recovered an onside kick late in the game, but the ball was given inexplicably to Oregon, even though their player had touched the ball early and an Oklahoma player left the pile with the football. On the ensuing drive, a crucial pass interference call was made even though the football was tipped at the line of scrimmage. Replay refused to overturn both calls. In the aftermath, the replay official received death threats, had to take a leave of absence, eventually quit, and then came out later saying that he was never provided the crucial angle for him to overturn the onside kick. Talk about backpedalling. I don't think that makes Bob Stoops sleep any better at night. That's because this loss may have cost Oklahoma their shot at the National Title. Without it, the Sooners finish the regular season with only a single loss, and with a strong case behind them.
3. Rutgers d. Louisville, 28-25: That little team from Piscataway sure cause quite a stir this season, and no game was bigger than this one. With both teams undefeated and playing in the spotlight of a Thursday night, the Big East had the nation's eyes upon them. Could Rutgers really be this good? Was Louisville on the fast track to the National Title? For the first 30 minutes, it sure looked like the Cardinals were going to make a strong case to be in consideration. Louisville led 25-7 with a little more than half the game remaining, but that half of the game belonged solely to the Scarlet Knights. Louisville never scored again and punted on seven straight drives after kicking a field goal with six minutes left in the second quarter. After that time, Ray Rice contributed two touchdowns and Jeremy Ito added a field goal to tie the game with 10 minutes remaining. After the seventh consecutive Louisville punt, Mike Teel and Rice drove the Scarlet Knights over 80 yards to give Ito a chance to win it. On his attempt, the kick went wide, but an offsides penalty against the Cardinals gave Ito another chance. The second time, he nailed it and gave a two gun salute to the over field camera. After time (and Louisville's championship game aspirations) expired, the field was covered in a swarm of red. Rutgers had arrived at 9-0 and would go on to finish the season 11-2 with a win in the Texas Bowl. Greg Schiano has created something big in New Jersey, and with a young team, they could do it again next season.
2. "The Brawl", Miami d. Florida International, 35-0: Miami may have won this game on the field, but their reputation definitely took a blow off the field because of it. This was supposed to be the beginning of a friendly rivalry between the two schools located in Miami. However, pandemonium broke out as an all out brawl overtook this game. Players from both sides threw punches, helmets, stomps. An announcer for Miami cheered them on. It looked like nothing was going to be able to stop the fighting, even though the coaches tried. The fighting almost resumed after a Miami player led a jumping and helmet thrusting episode by the full Hurricane team on the sideline which just served to taunt the Florida International players. Flat out, it was a mess. Miami president Donna Shalala just added to that mess then by laying down less than strict penalties for the players involved with the fighting, although the worst of it came from her squad. Florida International took the high road, suspending all of those involved indefinitely. Miami's players however received what amounted to a slap on the wrist, with most of them only being suspended for a game against big scary Duke. The University of Miami was the laughing stock of college athletics after this. There was no doubt. The brawl also probably cost both head coaches their job, although Larry Coker might have survived had his team managed to win a few more games. Miami does like its rough image, after all. The one good thing that this did bring about? Miami hired within the team, promoting Randy Shannon to head coach beginning in 2007. This not only brings a former Miami player (and native) to the top job, it adds one to the still lacking African American head coach numbers in big time college football.
1. The Fiesta Bowl, Boise State d. Oklahoma, 43-42: Poor Oklahoma. They are one of two teams to appear on this list twice and both times it is for the wrong reason, losing the game. This game was by far the must see event of the season. Sure Ohio State and Michigan was a nail biter. Sure, Florida's defeat of the Buckeyes has possibly bigger recognition to go with it, but this game, more than any other, captured the heart of the nation. The final three minutes of this game, along with the overtime, may have been the best football played all season long. Oklahoma State came back, then took the lead, and then Boise came back again. Overtime! Adrian Peterson, coming back from an injury runs the first play in and you would have thought the game was over. Boise State still had a few tricks left in the playbook though, including the finest Statue of Liberty play you may ever see in a football game for the two point conversion. There is no way for words to describe what occurred on the field or what Boise State accomplished with the win. While we may be talking about this one for years to come as one of the greatest games ever played, and while it may one day be a case for a post-season change in college football, all the Broncos players cared about was the moment. Ian Johnson made the most of it by proposing to his girlfriend on the sidelines after the game. Just a note to all single men out there. You will never be able to top that. Best. Proposal. Ever. Boise State was the little school that could on New Years Day, 2007. They came from being a junior college to be the only undefeated team in Division 1-A football. Now that is something special, and totally worthy of my moment of the year.
Of course, I want to know what were your top moments of the year. You can take a poll at FanIQ to tell me, or just post them in the comments.
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 11:00 PM | Comments (0)
January 9, 2007
MRI Football 2006 - Rankings Bowl Final
Dump the Gatorade. It is time to celebrate this year's MRI champion for football. And as in some of the past years in basketball and football, this year's champion is not the one that will be taking home the crystal football.
No, this year, the LSU Tigers, probably the hottest team over the second half of the season, are the champions. It didn't come easy. LSU played their toughest four opponents in conference on the road this year. That gave them room to schedule a little lighter outside of conference, but even LSU didn't expect Fresno State to be as disappointing as the Bulldogs ended up this season.
LSU began to roll after losing their two conference games to Florida and Auburn, defeating Tennessee and Arkansas, before being selected as an at-large selection to the Sugar Bowl to take on Notre Dame. As expected, in the MRI, and across most of the country, LSU defeated the Irish, 41-14, and until Monday night, had the largest gain the rankings.
Their conference foes who are going to be holding onto the crystal football were not going to let LSU get all of the glory. Despite Ohio State being given a 72.85% chance of winning in the MRI, Florida grabbed the victory, coincidentally, by the same score as LSU over Notre Dame. The win catapulted Florida from 7th to 3rd in the MRI, still behind those pesky Buckeyes. How is this possible? The MRI analyzes the whole season, and despite losing their final game, the MRI rated the Ohio State season better than Florida's. Florida did do one thing. Should the game be held again, on a neutral field, Ohio State's percentage chance of winning would be down to 54.72%. Something tells me that if they hadn't waited almost two months before playing the final, the percentage would have been somewhere in the middle.
The rest of the Top 5 belongs to Louisville and Boise State, who couldn't make up any ground towards the top of the charts. Both teams won their BCS bowl games which says something about the changing face of college football. Not too many years ago - two to be exact - only one of the two teams would have been able to get into the BCS, and neither would have qualified for the "Big Dance".
Look for more on the bowl season, and the season in general as the week moves on. Until then, check out all the ratings, in this, the Bowl Final edition of the MRI for football.
| And Now the Rankings | |||||
 LSU |
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 Ohio State |
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 Florida |
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 Louisville |
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 Boise State |
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 Michigan |
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 USC |
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 BYU |
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 West Virginia |
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 Wisconsin |
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| Teams Dropped From The Top 25: Tennessee (LW #24, TW #26), Texas A&M (LW #25, TW #30) | |||||
| Other Teams People Might Care About | |||||
| Last Place this week: Temple (1-11) at -78.16. 10th week in a row. | |||||
| Biggest Gain this week: Florida gained 19.34 points. (Beat Ohio State in National Championship Game, 41-14) | |||||
| Biggest Loss this week: Rice lost 8.08 points. (Lost to New Orleans Bowl to Troy, 41-17) | |||||
| Conference rankings this week: Big East, SEC, Big Ten, PAC-10, Big 12, ACC, Mountain West, C-USA, WAC, MAC, Sun Belt | |||||
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 11:00 PM | Comments (0)
January 8, 2007
MRI2006: Week 7 - Upset Special Edition
In case you were too busy preparing for the final bowl game of the season, you might have missed some of the biggest upsets of the season so far. Of course, these are the biggest upsets in terms of the human perspective. The biggest upsets of the year have been happening all season long according to the computer.
This week's results though shook everything up.
Raise your hand if you thought the last undefeated team in the country would have been Clemson, or that the Tigers would have somehow managed to finally win one of their opening ACC games, even if they needed a last second lay-in to do it. Chances are that there are very few hands raised out there.
This week provided plenty of surprises across the country. Oregon lost their first game, and then went on to defeat UCLA, the #1 team in both major polls. Arizona went down to a surprising Washington State team. USC might have had the best week in the country, picking off both Oregon and Oregon State in convincing fashion. Arkansas detroyed Alabama in the SEC. Duke went down in overtime to Virginia Tech, and someone needs to talk to Greg Paulus and tell him that "using your head" means something totally different when it comes to basketball.
North Carolina continues their domination with two huge wins over Penn and Florida State this week. This is the second week in a row that they have had the largest gain in the MRI, opening up a 33 point lead in the rankings. This basically means that North Carolina would be favored no matter where the game was held against any team they played. This is a rare lead indeed.
Moving up to #2 is Florida who began their SEC season this week with a victory over Georgia. The Gators are now undefeated since they lost to Florida State over a month ago. That is the case despite dealing with injuries, sickness, and less than 100% focus on their play. Something tells me that the rest of the conference is not exactly looking forward to the next couple of months.
Clemson and UCLA each drop one spot to #3 and #4 respectively. UCLA does not lose much ground despite the loss to Oregon, in part due to their victory over Oregon State earlier in the week.
Rounding out the top 5 is Texas A&M who has since rebounded from back to back losses to LSU and UCLA, in early December. The Aggies began their quest for a Big XII title with a slim victory over Bob Huggins and Kansas State on Saturday.
For the rest of the top 25 teams, we have four new members this week. I won't spoil the surprise for you on those.
Check out all the rankings in Week 7 of the MRI.
| And Now the Rankings | |||||
| Teams Dropped From The Top 25: | |||||
| Michigan State (LW #19, TW #30), Marquette (LW #23, TW #33), Florida State (LW #24, TW #37), Missouri (LW #25, TW #26) | |||||
| Other Teams People Might Care About | |||||
| Last Place this week: Winston-Salem (0-18) at -74.52. 2nd week in a row. | |||||
| Biggest Gain this week: North Carolina gained 23.85 points (Beat Pennsylvania and Florida State) | |||||
| Biggest Loss this week: North Florida lost 21.02 points (Lost to Campbell and Gardner Webb) | |||||
| Conference rankings this week: ACC, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, PAC-10, Big 12, MVC, Mountain West, C-USA, WAC, Atlantic 10 | |||||
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 4:20 PM | Comments (0)
January 7, 2007
National Championship Game - Florida vs. Ohio State
Ok, so I lied. I didn't post predictions for either the International Bowl or the GMAC Bowl. Let's be honest though. Did anyone watch these two? Why do we have lesser bowl games played between the BCS Bowls and the National Championship. Someone needs to get Fox on the horn and correct this.
The National Championship should not be being played after the NFL playoffs have begun. It should be close to the other meaningful bowl games, and while a week of hype is probably better for ratings, it also really stretches the season longer than necessary.
Conference season is starting in basketball before we have this game. Does that not bother anyone else that we are still trying to follow one more game while basketball is starting to hit its huge stride.
This should be corrected and the entire bowl schedule needs to be looked at. I think the addition of 4 bowl games this year was a little much, and the extension of the bowl season, while a great time, makes it seem like the regular season was so far away. And really, it was. The conference championships were played on December 2nd. Even Florida will have had 36 days since their last game. That is a long time.
But off my soapbox I jump. It is time to look at the biggest game of the year, the third meeting between #1 and #2 and the quest for the crystal football.
Based on what we have seen this bowl season, I think we can be clear on one thing. Both teams will come out a little rusty on defense. I know that seems strange, but look at the Sugar Bowl. LSU gave up more yards in the first half to Notre Dame than they had on average all season. Notre Dame was also having trouble stopping LSU when LSU did what it needed to against the Irish (Throw the Ball!).
So, given that, I think we will see some scoring early. It is not like either of these teams have a struggling offense. Ohio State put points on the board against every team they played this season, including against Michigan's vaunted defense (which disappeared in the Rose Bowl). Florida has blossomed in its second year under Urban Meyer's spread offense. Even with a rotation at quarterback between Chris Leak and Tim Tebow, which I am sure we will see on Monday night, the team succeeded in all of their games except one.
This could be the biggest test for Ohio State yet, even more than Texas, more than Michigan. Florida has one of the best rushing defenses in the country and that could put even more pressure on Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. Smith has plenty of options to pass to, and his mobility has been a big asset for Ohio State over the past two seasons when he has started. Look for Smith to try to hit Ted Ginn or Anthony Gonzalez deep early to set the tone for how Ohio State will play this game.
The Ohio State defense was a big question mark coming into the year, but led by Quinn Pitcock and James Laurinaitis, the unit turned into one of the best in the nation. So, now they will have to put together a lot of speed to contain the Florida offense, especially the speedy receiving core. Dallas Baker, Andre Caldwell, and Percy Harvin, have tested defenses all season, and this will be the best passing game that Ohio State has faced, even better than the speed at Michigan. Florida has trouble getting their running game going, and they may need to set up the run with the pass since they are going to need to stretch the Buckeye defense before the middle will be open to them.
While Florida should be able to score, I think the edge in any shootout would go to the many offensive weapons on Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a lot to play for in this game, and no one prepares for a game better than Jim Tressel, no matter what you think of him. Since we have seen some major trick plays in the past few games, don't expect the National Championship game to be any different. Ohio State should be able to take this one, probably by two touchdowns in the end.
MRI Predicts: Ohio State Confidence factor: 73.33%, 23 out of 32
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 9:00 PM | Comments (0)
January 2, 2007
The Effects Of Monday Night
The nation is agog with visions of blue turf today. Those who watched the instant classic Fiesta Bowl between Boise State and Oklahoma witnessed a game of the likes that we probably won't see again for a long time. And this game had nothing to do with the National Championship.
Or did it?
Today, there has been a great deal written on why this was the game that was going to change everything. How this was the game that will finally force the end of the BCS. How this was the game that will create the playoff.
Some have gone so far to say that this may be the most important college football game in history, although I would contend that it has tough competition from the very first game, the first game after the college football broadcast decision, and if Michael Weinreb has his way, the 1987 Fiesta Bowl
Why do I feel that this isn't the end for the current system and the BCS? Oh, let me count the ways.
First off, we have been here before. Or have you forgotten that Utah team of 2004 already? The Utes didn't get the credit they deserved because they played a team which was largely considered a joke for even being in a BCS game, Pittsburgh. It made the Fiesta Bowl look like one of those freak shows at the circus where only those with strong stomachs should take notice. Even Utah moving through the year undefeated, and finishing the year as one of three teams without a blemish that season, didn't change anything. I would venture that calls for a playoff were even larger after that year thanks to a certain team from the SEC who felt they got left out. It is going to take more than one game, or two Fiesta Bowls in 3 years, to move mountains, and even coming up with a playoff system which is fair to the smaller conferences and that protect the big money the automatic qualifier conferences covet, will be like climbing Mount Everest.
Speaking of playoffs, Boise State was a big underdog, and went undefeated, so who says they deserve to get a shot to run through three games like this? Playoffs are tricky. You can't pull out almost the entire playbook in one game like Boise was able to do when no one would be watching and game planning for next time. Do you think that they were going to have six or seven new trick plays by next week if they had to play again against a team that won their game like Wisconsin, or USC? You can't consistently win when you need to gimmick every time you get backed into a corner. After a while, even that well runs dry. Welcome to the college football version of "One and Done" if that were the case.
Plus, part of the reason they went for two in OT is that their team was worn out. The defense was dragging which is why Oklahoma was able to easily punch the ball in on the first play of their OT possession. If Boise would have kicked the extra point on their possession and tied the score again, do you honestly think they would have ever had a chance to stop Adrian Peterson and the Sooners? I don't. They would have been scrambling to keep up on offense with the lack of defense that was left. I almost thought they were going to go for two when they scored the touchdown at the end of regulation for just this reason. I was actually shocked they didn't, especially since the underdog will rarely play for the tie time and time again.
Most of all, there is the big difference between the big boys and the mid-majors, mostly size and strength. It doesn't mean you can't get an upset every once in a while, but it makes it difficult to keep doing week after week. It doesn't mean you can't have a team who has a dream season like this, like Utah in 2004, or dare I say, TCU in 2005. It is just harder to do it consistently when you have to keep playing bigger and bigger opponents. How does a Boise team recover from this game in a week? You can't. They aren't used to the pounding. Maybe they play one game with a team the size of Oklahoma a year, and they get to follow it with a team like Idaho which is nowhere close to playing a Wisconsin or USC next, and then if they somehow win again, one more bigger, stronger team after that.
When you reflect on this game, I think maybe the only big change you will see is teams like Boise State, TCU, and Utah getting more credit in the polls going forward. Of course, I think that every year, and it was part of the reason I began the MRI for college basketball. Teams like BYU, Hawaii, and San Jose State showed that some of them were worthy of a higher number (or even a number) next to their name this season, and probably at the expense of some of those marginal AQ teams. It is not like there isn't space for them. When you rank 25 teams, you are ranking the top 20% of college football. There is no reason that space shouldn't include the Boise States, the BYUs, the TCUs, and the Utahs or Hawaiis. They have a place in that 25. Do they need to be in the top 10? No, not necessarily unless you can see that they truly deserve it, like Boise State does this year.
Those smaller teams play their hearts out on Saturdays (and Thursdays, and Wednesdays, and sometimes Sundays now), just like the big boys. I think the biggest compliment we can give them is to look at them with respect they deserve. After Monday night, I think we can safely say, that amount is a lot..
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 9:15 PM | Comments (0)
January 1, 2007
2006 Bowl Predictions - Part 7
As I write this, Boise State has taken a improbable lead on Oklahoma into halftime, making the MRI's prediction of a Bronco victory, not only a possibility, but also likely. That should at least help to get the computer out of the basement in the standings.
USC's victory over Michigan in the Rose Bowl will certainly have everyone talking about how the "correct" choice was made to put Florida into the National Championship. The Wolverines definitely didn't look like the same team that had rumbled through the season as the 2nd best in the nation. USC definitely didn't look like the team that got beaten by UCLA just a few short weeks ago either. The Trojans turned what should have been a very close game on paper into a statement that will follow them into next year when they will once again be the favorites to run the table and win yet another National Championship for Pete Carroll.
But before we crown them next year, there are still a few more games to look at. In this edition, let's take a look into the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl, with the final non-championship games to come in a preview later this week.
Orange Bowl
Jim Grobe has taken Wake Forest from a predicted bottom dweller to the BCS, but the task for them hasn't gotten any easier. Up against the Demon Deacons in the Orange Bowl will be Louisville who had struggles of their own this season. The Cardinals lost their number one running back to injury early. They lost their quarterback for a stretch in the middle of the season. They lost their chance at a National Championship with a second half collapse against Rutgers. It seemed like a lot of losses this season, and yet, except for that one night in Piscataway, all the Cardinals did was win. Louisville brings with it one of the most prolific offenses in the league, averaging almost 480 yards a game. Brian Brohm leads this offense under center and has a pair of speedy receivers in Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas. Plus, since the loss of Michael Bush, a team of running backs has taken over to continue the strong running game that gets almost 200 yards a game. As you can see, if Wake Forest is going to win this game, they are going to have to rely on the tough defense that got them here. The Deacs are +14 on turnovers this season, and will need to generate a few big ones to have a chance in this one, since the Wake offense is nothing to get very excited about. Their quarterback threw for less than 2000 yards. Their leading rusher didn't even break the 500 yard mark. It isn't going to be easy for them to score should they get down early at all. Of course, we thought the same thing about Georgia Tech and they seemed to do fairly well against West Virginia. I would look for Louisville to try and score big early and then just concentrate on stopping the Wake comeback. Chances are they will do better at that than they did against Rutgers.
MRI Predicts:Louisville Confidence factor: 65.81%, 26 out of 32
Sugar Bowl
When you haven't won a bowl game in 12 years, it starts to weigh on you. Especially so when more than 80 programs have won a bowl game since you have. Even more so when you have one of the most storied names in college football. That is just what Notre Dame is facing rolling into the most impossible of situations: Facing LSU in the Superdome in New Orleans, just a year since Katrina. In a situation like that, I don't think you are going to see the Tigers just roll over and play with a yarn ball for the Fighting Irish. We have heard all the criticisms of Notre Dame this year, especially that they haven't played anyone other than Michigan and USC. Funny, but last time I looked, a good number of the Notre Dame opponents made bowl games this season, including some showing signs of brilliance that weren't expected from them. I think the MRI's rating of their schedule at #12 in the nation is anything but a fluke. We know the players on the Irish, and we also know that their defense is the reason they lose ball games (or almost lose ballgames, like against UCLA). Notre Dame will definitely be put to the test against LSU's offense, who many coaches in the SEC say is the most talented group in the conference. That is saying something in the SEC. If it hadn't been for a brutal schedule which forced the Tigers to play all of their toughest games on the road (Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas), we might be talking about how they would stack up against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the championship game. LSU comes at you from all angles on offense and their defense is one of the stingiest in the nation. If Michigan's defense shocked Notre Dame, they have no idea what is coming for them in LSU. This game is very lopsided on paper, and a lot will rely on JaMarcus Russell's ability to avoid making mistakes throwing the ball. Russell is much improved at that over previous seasons, and that will be all the difference in this game. Look for that Notre Dame streak to extend to 13 seasons.
MRI Predicts: LSU Confidence factor: 74.07%, 30 out of 32
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 10:25 PM | Comments (0)
MRI2006: Week 6 - Pulling Away
This is never a good sign for the rest of the nation. The #1 team in the MRI, North Carolina, had the largest gain in the MRI this week after dominating wins over Rutgers and Dayton this week. As a result, they have now opened up a huge lead on the #2 team Clemson, who are getting a lot of pressure themselves.
The Tigers remained undefeated on the year, and are starting to see some love in the polls and the press for surviving without a loss. However, they are also getting some scrutiny for their scheduling. The MRI likes them despite a schedule which has them playing teams with a worse winning percentage than all but North Carolina State in the ACC. The Tigers continue to prove they can win, and until they lose, you can't really say that they aren't among the elite. The gap opening up between them and North Carolina though, means that the Tigers are slipping slightly back to the pack.
Running up their back is UCLA, who showed they have overcome one of their biggest weaknesses from last season. A 22 point win over Washington shows that UCLA now can play against a team with a much larger front court. This will become big in the tournament, when last year, a much larger Florida team gave them fits, especially because the big men kept rotating in and they could also run. The Bruins look to be playing the best basketball in the country right now, and continuing to win the way they are, especially in conference, should have them looking eye to eye with North Carolina in the MRI soon.
Florida remains in the top 5 at #4 this week, and despite their first loss of the season, to West Virginia, Connecticut manages to hang onto their #5 spot.
Be sure to check out all the rankings in Week 6 of the MRI.
| And Now the Rankings | |||||
| Teams Dropped From The Top 25: | |||||
| Washington (LW #21, TW #29), Providence (LW #22, TW #38), Virginia Tech (LW #25, TW #28) | |||||
| Other Teams People Might Care About | |||||
| Last Place this week: Winston-Salem (0-16) at -63.57. | |||||
| Biggest Gain this week: North Carolina gained 20.97 points (Beat Rutgers and Dayton) | |||||
| Biggest Loss this week: Loyola Marymount lost 19.06 points (Lost to Akron and Monmouth) | |||||
| Conference rankings this week: ACC, Big Ten, Big East, PAC-10, SEC, Big 12, MVC, Mountain West, C-USA, WAC, Atlantic 10 | |||||
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 6:45 PM | Comments (0)
The MRI vs. The World - Update #3, The Home Stretch
The Big Ten finally got a few bowl wins today. Penn State and Wisconsin overcame that "pretty good" conference, the SEC with wins over Tennessee and Arkansas. The games of the past few days have once again jumbled the standings in the big race, shuffling the MRI down to ... umm, well, last place. There is still time and a few games for the computer to reassert its dominance, though.
If it is any consolation, last year's big winner, Dennis Dodd has fallen into a tie with the MRI and that will make the last few games interesting. And while we can't catch the Schwab, who looks in line for the win overall, we definitely can make it interesting since the computer likes a few underdogs moving forward.
As I like to say, it is still anyone's game.
Updated Standings:
1. The Schwab, 20-5, 80%
2. The World, 18-7, 72%
2. Harmon Predictor, 18-7, 72%
4. Darin Darst, 16-9, 64%
4. Congrove Computer, 16-9, 64%
6. The MRI, 15-10, 60%
6. Dennis Dodd, 15-10, 60%
The Rose Bowl
Michigan: The MRI, Darst, Dodd, The World
USC: Harmon, Schwab, Congrove
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State: The MRI
Oklahoma: Darst, Dodd, Harmon, Schwab, Congrove, The World
Orange Bowl
Louisville: The MRI, Dodd, Harmon, Congrove, The World
Wake Forest: Darst, Schwab
Sugar Bowl
LSU: The MRI, Darst, Dodd, Harmon, Schwab, Congrove, The World
Notre Dame: None
International Bowl
Western Michigan: The MRI, Dodd
Cincinnati: Darst, Harmon, Schwab, Congrove, The World
GMAC Bowl
Southern Mississippi: The MRI, Darst, Dodd, Harmon, Schwab, Congrove, The World
Ohio: None
The National Championship Game
Ohio State: The MRI, Darst, Dodd, Harmon, Schwab, Congrove
Florida: None
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 3:50 PM | Comments (0)