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January 1, 2007
2006 Bowl Predictions - Part 7
As I write this, Boise State has taken a improbable lead on Oklahoma into halftime, making the MRI's prediction of a Bronco victory, not only a possibility, but also likely. That should at least help to get the computer out of the basement in the standings.
USC's victory over Michigan in the Rose Bowl will certainly have everyone talking about how the "correct" choice was made to put Florida into the National Championship. The Wolverines definitely didn't look like the same team that had rumbled through the season as the 2nd best in the nation. USC definitely didn't look like the team that got beaten by UCLA just a few short weeks ago either. The Trojans turned what should have been a very close game on paper into a statement that will follow them into next year when they will once again be the favorites to run the table and win yet another National Championship for Pete Carroll.
But before we crown them next year, there are still a few more games to look at. In this edition, let's take a look into the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl, with the final non-championship games to come in a preview later this week.
Orange Bowl
Jim Grobe has taken Wake Forest from a predicted bottom dweller to the BCS, but the task for them hasn't gotten any easier. Up against the Demon Deacons in the Orange Bowl will be Louisville who had struggles of their own this season. The Cardinals lost their number one running back to injury early. They lost their quarterback for a stretch in the middle of the season. They lost their chance at a National Championship with a second half collapse against Rutgers. It seemed like a lot of losses this season, and yet, except for that one night in Piscataway, all the Cardinals did was win. Louisville brings with it one of the most prolific offenses in the league, averaging almost 480 yards a game. Brian Brohm leads this offense under center and has a pair of speedy receivers in Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas. Plus, since the loss of Michael Bush, a team of running backs has taken over to continue the strong running game that gets almost 200 yards a game. As you can see, if Wake Forest is going to win this game, they are going to have to rely on the tough defense that got them here. The Deacs are +14 on turnovers this season, and will need to generate a few big ones to have a chance in this one, since the Wake offense is nothing to get very excited about. Their quarterback threw for less than 2000 yards. Their leading rusher didn't even break the 500 yard mark. It isn't going to be easy for them to score should they get down early at all. Of course, we thought the same thing about Georgia Tech and they seemed to do fairly well against West Virginia. I would look for Louisville to try and score big early and then just concentrate on stopping the Wake comeback. Chances are they will do better at that than they did against Rutgers.
MRI Predicts:Louisville Confidence factor: 65.81%, 26 out of 32
Sugar Bowl
When you haven't won a bowl game in 12 years, it starts to weigh on you. Especially so when more than 80 programs have won a bowl game since you have. Even more so when you have one of the most storied names in college football. That is just what Notre Dame is facing rolling into the most impossible of situations: Facing LSU in the Superdome in New Orleans, just a year since Katrina. In a situation like that, I don't think you are going to see the Tigers just roll over and play with a yarn ball for the Fighting Irish. We have heard all the criticisms of Notre Dame this year, especially that they haven't played anyone other than Michigan and USC. Funny, but last time I looked, a good number of the Notre Dame opponents made bowl games this season, including some showing signs of brilliance that weren't expected from them. I think the MRI's rating of their schedule at #12 in the nation is anything but a fluke. We know the players on the Irish, and we also know that their defense is the reason they lose ball games (or almost lose ballgames, like against UCLA). Notre Dame will definitely be put to the test against LSU's offense, who many coaches in the SEC say is the most talented group in the conference. That is saying something in the SEC. If it hadn't been for a brutal schedule which forced the Tigers to play all of their toughest games on the road (Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas), we might be talking about how they would stack up against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the championship game. LSU comes at you from all angles on offense and their defense is one of the stingiest in the nation. If Michigan's defense shocked Notre Dame, they have no idea what is coming for them in LSU. This game is very lopsided on paper, and a lot will rely on JaMarcus Russell's ability to avoid making mistakes throwing the ball. Russell is much improved at that over previous seasons, and that will be all the difference in this game. Look for that Notre Dame streak to extend to 13 seasons.
MRI Predicts: LSU Confidence factor: 74.07%, 30 out of 32
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at January 1, 2007 10:25 PM
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