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January 7, 2007
National Championship Game - Florida vs. Ohio State
Ok, so I lied. I didn't post predictions for either the International Bowl or the GMAC Bowl. Let's be honest though. Did anyone watch these two? Why do we have lesser bowl games played between the BCS Bowls and the National Championship. Someone needs to get Fox on the horn and correct this.
The National Championship should not be being played after the NFL playoffs have begun. It should be close to the other meaningful bowl games, and while a week of hype is probably better for ratings, it also really stretches the season longer than necessary.
Conference season is starting in basketball before we have this game. Does that not bother anyone else that we are still trying to follow one more game while basketball is starting to hit its huge stride.
This should be corrected and the entire bowl schedule needs to be looked at. I think the addition of 4 bowl games this year was a little much, and the extension of the bowl season, while a great time, makes it seem like the regular season was so far away. And really, it was. The conference championships were played on December 2nd. Even Florida will have had 36 days since their last game. That is a long time.
But off my soapbox I jump. It is time to look at the biggest game of the year, the third meeting between #1 and #2 and the quest for the crystal football.
Based on what we have seen this bowl season, I think we can be clear on one thing. Both teams will come out a little rusty on defense. I know that seems strange, but look at the Sugar Bowl. LSU gave up more yards in the first half to Notre Dame than they had on average all season. Notre Dame was also having trouble stopping LSU when LSU did what it needed to against the Irish (Throw the Ball!).
So, given that, I think we will see some scoring early. It is not like either of these teams have a struggling offense. Ohio State put points on the board against every team they played this season, including against Michigan's vaunted defense (which disappeared in the Rose Bowl). Florida has blossomed in its second year under Urban Meyer's spread offense. Even with a rotation at quarterback between Chris Leak and Tim Tebow, which I am sure we will see on Monday night, the team succeeded in all of their games except one.
This could be the biggest test for Ohio State yet, even more than Texas, more than Michigan. Florida has one of the best rushing defenses in the country and that could put even more pressure on Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith. Smith has plenty of options to pass to, and his mobility has been a big asset for Ohio State over the past two seasons when he has started. Look for Smith to try to hit Ted Ginn or Anthony Gonzalez deep early to set the tone for how Ohio State will play this game.
The Ohio State defense was a big question mark coming into the year, but led by Quinn Pitcock and James Laurinaitis, the unit turned into one of the best in the nation. So, now they will have to put together a lot of speed to contain the Florida offense, especially the speedy receiving core. Dallas Baker, Andre Caldwell, and Percy Harvin, have tested defenses all season, and this will be the best passing game that Ohio State has faced, even better than the speed at Michigan. Florida has trouble getting their running game going, and they may need to set up the run with the pass since they are going to need to stretch the Buckeye defense before the middle will be open to them.
While Florida should be able to score, I think the edge in any shootout would go to the many offensive weapons on Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a lot to play for in this game, and no one prepares for a game better than Jim Tressel, no matter what you think of him. Since we have seen some major trick plays in the past few games, don't expect the National Championship game to be any different. Ohio State should be able to take this one, probably by two touchdowns in the end.
MRI Predicts: Ohio State Confidence factor: 73.33%, 23 out of 32
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at January 7, 2007 9:00 PM
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