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March 13, 2007
Tournament Predictions - MRI Style
It is time to predict the tournament using only the MRI. This year is especially strange since most of the games have the higher seeded team as the actual higher ranked team in the MRI.
Unlike in years past though, the teams matched in many of the games are very close in the MRI rankings which means that no one has an "easy" road to the Final Four or the Championship.
So, the following are the percentage chances for each team to come out on top in their games, based on only the rankings at the end of the season. Percentages are based on 4 years of actual game date. Note that the MRI becomes less accurate as the tournament goes on, if only because it relies on all available game data to predict. Therefore, for example, the prediction for Notre Dame-Oregon in the second round could change based on the performance of the teams in the first round. However, the game will still be very close and likely a 50% toss-up. When the percentage designates a toss-up, that will be noted with no winner. Basically, you could just flip a coin for the winner.
Percentages shown are based only on the teams that are predicted to win the previous round's game. It is assumed that the percentage chance will be greater should there be an upset in the previous round.
And with that, let's look at the Midwest Region:
Midwest Region:
(1) Florida vs. (16) Jackson State: Florida - 97.29%
(8) Arizona vs. (9) Purdue: Arizona - 59.35%
(5) Butler vs. (12) Old Dominion: Butler - 52.36%
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Davidson: Maryland - 52.36%
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Winthrop: Notre Dame - 70.75%
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Miami (Ohio): Oregon - 86.06%
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Georgia Tech: UNLV - 52.36%
(2) Wisconsin vs. (15) Texas AMCC: Wisconsin - 82.48%
2nd Round:
(1) Florida vs. (8) Arizona: Florida - 82.48%
(5) Butler vs. (4) Maryland: Maryland - 66.38%
(6) Notre Dame vs. (3) Oregon: TOSS-UP !!!
(7) UNLV vs. (2) Wisconsin: Wisconsin - 73.38%
Sweet 16:
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland: Florida - 78.64%
TOSS-UP vs. (2) Wisconsin: Wisconsin - 70.75%
Elite Eight:
(1) Florida vs. (2) Wisconsin: Florida - 70.75%
Final Four Entry: Likely Florida
West Region:
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Niagara: Kansas - 93.89%
(8) Kentucky vs. (9) Villanova: Villanova - 52.36%
(5) Virginia Tech vs. (12) Illinois: Illinois - 54.38%
(4) Southern Illinois vs. (13) Holy Cross: Southern Illinois - 52.36%
(6) Duke vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth: Duke - 59.35%
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Wright State: Pittsburgh - 86.06%
(7) Indiana vs. (10) Gonzaga: Indiana - 54.38%
(2) UCLA vs. (15) Weber State: UCLA - 94.13%
2nd Round:
(1) Kansas vs. (9) Villanova: Kansas - 82.48%
(12) Illinois vs. (4) Southern Illinois: Illinois - 66.38%
(6) Duke vs. (3) Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh - 66.38%
(7) Indiana vs. (2) UCLA: UCLA - 73.38%
Sweet 16:
(1) Kansas vs. (12) Illinois: Kansas - 82.48%
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (2) UCLA: TOSS-UP !!!
Elite 8:
(1) Kansas vs. TOSS-UP: Kansas - 73.38%
Final Four Entry: Likely Kansas
East Region:
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Eastern Kentucky: North Carolina - 99.39% (1 in 163 chance of upset)
(8) Marquette vs. (9) Michigan State: Michigan State - 59.35%
(5) USC vs. (12) Arkansas: Arkansas - 70.75%
(4) Texas vs. (13) New Mexico State: Texas - 73.38%
(6) Vanderbilt vs. (11) George Washington: George Washington - 59.35%
(3) Washington State vs. (14) Oral Roberts: Washington State - 66.38%
(7) Boston College vs. (10) Texas Tech: Boston College - 66.38%
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Belmont: Georgetown - 86.06%
2nd Round:
(1) North Carolina vs. (9) Michigan State: North Carolina - 91.84%
(12) Arkansas vs. (4) Texas: Texas - 59.35%
(11) George Washington vs. (3) Washington State: Washington State - 59.35%
(7) Boston College vs. (2) Georgetown: Georgetown - 78.64%
Sweet 16:
(1) North Carolina vs. (4) Texas: North Carolina - 91.84%
(3) Washington State vs. (2) Georgetown: Georgetown - 78.64%
Elite 8:
(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Georgetown: North Carolina - 82.48%
Final Four Entry: Very Likely North Carolina
South Region:
(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Central Connecticut State: Ohio State - 94.13%
(8) BYU vs. (9) Xavier: Xavier - 59.35%
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Long Beach State: Tennessee - 73.38%
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Albany: Virginia - 66.38%
(6) Louisville vs. (11) Stanford: Louisville - 73.38%
(3) Texas A&M vs. (14) Pennsylvania: Texas A&M - 86.06%
(7) Nevada vs. (10) Creighton: Nevada - 59.35%
(2) Memphis vs. (15) North Texas: Memphis - 93.89%
2nd Round:
(1) Ohio State vs. (9) Xavier: Ohio State - 73.38%
(5) Tennessee vs. (4) Virginia: Tennessee - 66.38%
(6) Louisville vs. (3) Texas A&M: Texas A&M - 78.64%
(7) Nevada) vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 86.06%
Sweet 16:
(1) Ohio State vs. (5) Tennessee: Ohio State - 82.48%
(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 70.75%
Elite 8:
(1) Ohio State vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 70.75%
Final Four Entry: Likely Memphis
Final Four:
(1) Florida vs. (1) Kansas: TOSS-UP !!!
(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Memphis: North Carolina - 70.75%
Championship Game:
(1) North Carolina vs. TOSS-UP: North Carolina - 73.38%
Likely National Champion: North Carolina
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at March 13, 2007 11:35 PM
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