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August 29, 2007

2007-8 Big XII Preview

Big XII PennantLast season was a down year for the Big XII. They were not represented in the National Title game for the first time after three straight appearances, they didn’t place a team in the top ten in the final poll, and they were just 3-5 in bowl games.

This year appears to be more of the same. While there may be a few teams at the top of the league which may challenge for the National crown, the performance of the rest of the league, plus the dearth of scheduling, will likely come back and hurt the league. Despite two teams in the top of the pre-season rankings, the league champion will likely be headed back to the Fiesta Bowl and not the National Championship game.

How will they stack up this season? Let’s take a look. All records are projected based on predicting the full schedule for all 12 teams in the league.

Big XII South:

  1. Oklahoma (11-1, 8-0) – The Sooners struggled with bad calls and off the field problems in 2006 and should be beyond that this year. Despite the loss of Adrian Peterson and Paul Thompson, the Sooners are more than equipped to repeat as league champions. They have two of the most punishing lines in the nation, and their running backs proved they are more than up to the challenge when Peterson was out last season. They do replace their QB, but at least this year’s starter, Sam Bradford, has been taking snaps for the last year and not playing wide receiver. Look for the Sooners to challenge for the national crown but a projected early loss to Miami may keep them from the title game.
  2. Texas A&M (10-2, 6-2) – The Aggies are poised to strike this season. They return nine offensive starters from last year including their very dangerous quarterback Stephen McGee. I have the Aggies only losing to Nebraska and Oklahoma, the two teams I project to be in the Big XII championship again this season. Look for them to pull a huge win in Miami on a Thursday night late in September which should vault them up the national rankings and for them to seal a January Bowl with a late win against Texas in College Station.
  3. Texas (10-2, 6-2) – The Longhorns have struggled with off the field problems before the start of the season and that may have more impact than anything on the field. Quarterback Colt McCoy is looking to build on his record setting rookie season, but will have to overcome a defense which had losses both on the field and in the coaching box. I see the Longhorns struggling this season. I have two projected losses to Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout and to A&M for the second straight year to close the season. Along the way, there are three games where Texas could be tested and they could easily go 7-5. The good news is that this year looks to be only a blip on the trend of good seasons that have graced Austin lately.
  4. Texas Tech (7-5, 3-5) – And then there were these teams… The Red Raiders still have their potent passing offense, and for the first time in a number of years, the same quarterback will be at the helm. Graham Harrell will look to help Texas Tech break into the upper tier in the Big XII. That will be a tough challenge given the talent in the South Division.
  5. Oklahoma State (6-6, 3-5) – The Cowboys don’t look to influence the conference any, but they do have one of the more intriguing out of conference schedules. They face a Georgia team on the first week of the season which should be challenging for the SEC crown. At the end of September, they take on Div. 1AA Sam Houston, and former Oklahoma quarterback Rhett Bomar, who was dismissed from the team last season because of extra benefits he received. The Cowboys also face what should be a tough Troy team on September 14th. Look for that one to be closer than you would expect.
  6. Baylor (2-10, 0-8) – You can’t return only 4 starters on offense and hope to compete in the Big XII. One win will come against a Div. 1AA team and the other will be against Rice. Don’t look for anything special after the 3rd week of the season.

Big XII North:

  1. Nebraska (10-2, 7-1) – The Cornhuskers don’t return the wealth of talent that you would like but Bill Callahan is developing the former powerhouse back into something special. With new quarterback Sam Keller, this will be an interesting team to watch, as we know that Keller has an arm from his time at Arizona State. The offensive line is huge and should protect him well. The question will be the defense and if they can stop the run. I only project a single loss in the league to Texas, and what will likely be a crushing defeat by USC. Otherwise, Nebraska should be able to handle their division and get back to the title game in the conference for the second year in a row.
  2. Missouri (9-3, 5-3) – Last year’s surprise team in the Big XII won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this year. Chase Daniel is back for his junior season, and a second year at the helm should help him in the pocket and allow him to improve on his shocking numbers from last season. The team loses a chunk of defense including the core of the linebackers and a big piece of their defensive backfield. In a league with so many quarterbacks returning, that could leave them vulnerable. They will have to count on the offense improving over what was a very impressive last season to have any shot of competing for the conference title.
  3. Kansas State (8-4, 5-3) – The Wildcats could surprise this season and were one of the hardest teams to read based on the numbers and their returnees. I see a close loss to Texas and two losses late to Nebraska and Missouri which keep them out of the lead in the North.
  4. Colorado (5-7, 3-5) – Too many close losses and late collapses are what did in the Buffaloes last year in Dan Hawkins’ first year. While it is too early in his tenure to predict a Colorado North Title, you can see better things on the horizon especially with most of the team back from last year. With a second year in the Boise State system, Colorado should come close to breaking back into bowl territory. Look for a very close game against Missouri late in the year to be the difference between a bowl and a long winter break.
  5. Kansas (4-8, 1-7) – Kansas never finishes in the top half of the division and this year will be more of the same. While most of their defense returns, they just don’t seem to have the offense, especially with half of their offensive line being new. They should start 3-1 but look for October and November to be very dark months in Lawrence.
  6. Iowa State (2-10, 1-7) – Iowa State surprisingly fired Dan McCarney last season, yet named a big replacement, pulling in Texas’s defensive coordinator Gene Chizik. While Chizik won’t perform miracles in his first season as a head coach, he will have seven returning starters on the defensive side to work with. The biggest questions will still be on offense. Look for them to come close to surprising Texas in October and get a late win in Lawrence, a place where Kansas never loses.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII recap appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate Cleanup. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at August 29, 2007 9:00 AM

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