Given Hawaii's schedule so far this season, and their "performance" over that schedule, played over time, Hawaii would be expected to have won, on average, 6.7 games.

So with some rounding, they would on average go 7-1 with the schedule they had. That sounds about right. They had one close overtime win over San Jose State, which could have been that expected loss. In fact, that was the game they had the second worst chance to win. They also had the close win over Louisiana Tech which could easily have gone the other direction. Either way, they seem to have done a little better than they would have been expected.

Now, what if an average team played Hawaii schedule? An average team, according to the MRI is a cross between TCU and Fresno State. Both aren't terrible teams, but neither has exactly blown away the competition this year.

If an average team would have played Hawaii's schedule to date, they would have, on average, won 5.8 games. Rounding again, that is on average 6-2. So, basically, any team, given Hawaii's schedule could be expected to do about as well as Hawaii has done this season. One of the most important notes for the average team is that they still would have been favored in every game this season. While they don't have the same percentage chance of winning as Hawaii, they are still likely more than half the time in all cases to come away with the victory.

I am sure everyone is wondering what that means for Hawaii the rest of the way. Their schedule strength actually improves over the rest of the season, although they play most of the games remaining at home. Percentage-wise, Hawaii is still favored to win all the games remaining, with the worst percentage being only around 70%. So, with a team of Hawaii's strength, on average, against their entire schedule, they would win, 9.9 games, or about 10, going 10-2. 12-0 is not such a leap from there.

However, an average team would struggle in the remaining four games. An average team would be expected to only win about 2 games the rest of the way, and finish with an average record of 8-4. That is really saying something when an average team, with a normal schedule, would be expected to finish about 6-6, and they would actually improve by 2 games, a 33% increase in wins, if only they lucked into Hawaii's schedule. Heck, an 8-4 record in a conference like the WAC or Mountain West would be in line for a nice bowl game. Normal average teams are lucky to get to the Armed Forces Bowl.

For a laugh, I plugged Hawaii into LSU's schedule so far this season (and the average team also). LSU is 7-1 in their first 8 games. Hawaii, with the MRI of their team so far would, on average, win 5.5 games out of the eight. So, they could be anywhere between 5-3 and out of any running and 6-2 which is still far back in the pack this season.

Over the course of the entire season, Hawaii would be expected to win 8.4 games or 8-4, or 9-3 on the season. A good season, but definitely not a season which would warrant National Championship consideration. That might not even warrant BCS bowl consideration most years (unless your name is Notre Dame).

How would an average team do with LSU's schedule? So far this season, they would be expected to have won about 3.6 games. That is a 3-5 or 4-4 record. In the SEC, that might be enough to have the boosters calling for your dismissal. Over the full season, it doesn't get much better with the final record averaging out to 5.6 wins, or somewhere around 5-7 or 6-6. That is middle of the pack at best, and at worst, home for the holidays.

So what does that really say about the strength of Hawaii? They are in all likelihood an "above average" team. They aren't a great team, like an LSU, Ohio State, Oregon, or even a West Virginia. They are barely out of the range of +1 standard deviation with their MRI score, and in any other league, with any other schedule, they would likely fall back into the realm of the mortals, as opposed to their lofty undefeated status.

Maybe I should consider that next time I put together my ballot.