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November 28, 2007
Games To Watch - 11/28/07
The ACC took a 5-1 lead last night, losing only the Indiana - Georgia Tech game, which almost looked like it was going to go to the Yellow Jackets, if it weren't for Eric Gordon. Noise out of the Hoosier faithful doesn't like the look of the team right now, even if they are winning. There is too much standing around and watching Gordon do his thing. Personally, the offense looks pretty balanced to me, although there is a little bit of the "Let's see if Eric can do it" first before others look for their shots.
That means the ACC needs just a single game tonight to win what has become their annual thrashing of the Big Ten in this contest. I am not exactly sure what they could do the change the format and perhaps change this trend. Maybe force all of the teams to play two games, one on the road and one at home? That would eliminate what is seen as the ACC always getting the "close games" at home, since the return game when it occurs the next year, always seems to happen during a down year for the Big Ten team in question. I am not sure that teams would be willing to give two non-conference games to a format like this. While it is a good spectacle for a single game and a three day run, I don't know if the attention could be maintained over a full week.
But before we give this year to the ACC, they still have to win one of the 5 games tonight. Let's look at the schedule this evening.
North Carolina at Ohio State: If four starters off the Ohio State team from last season weren't gone, then this would have been one of the premier games on the slate. That isn't what happened. However, Ohio State is still playing well. They were more than their starting line-up last season. They still weren't North Carolina. North Carolina returns almost everyone and is the strong favorite to win the ACC and at least get to the Final Four. This will be their first real test of the season. The MRI doesn't yet have North Carolina in the elite and Ohio State is just outside the top 25. The computer backs the Buckeyes, but then again, it liked Wisconsin last night.
MRI Predicts: Ohio State Confidence Factor: 52.55%
Illinois at Maryland: I spoke about the woes of Maryland this morning. Outside of the single game against Duke, Illinois has actually looked pretty good. They are a wild card in this year's Big Ten. They could be anywhere from a contender to a 7th place finish in the league which by all accounts is down. This will be a big win for Illinois if they can pull it off. Obviously the big key for the Illini will be turnovers, the one thing that they can definitely push the Terrapins on. I wonder if Illinois can rebound with the Maryland team, but this is another one that the MRI likes the Big Ten winning.
MRI Predicts: Illinois Confidence Factor: 54.54%
North Carolina State at Michigan State: Michigan State is the class of the Big Ten. North Carolina State is back to being a contender in the ACC. This is one of the best games in the series. Michigan State better win it if they want to continue to be seen as the favorite in the conference. Michigan State gets this one based on their board advantage and being at home.
MRI Predicts: Michigan State Confidence Factor: 78.79%
Boston College at Michigan: John Beilein is still building Michigan back into his unique style. Somehow that rebuild has him as a 3 point favorite tonight in Vegas against Boston College. No, this isn't the Boston College team of last season, but there is no reason to believe that Michigan is already back, is it? The MRI says, not so fast. If the computer is right, this game will clinch the ACC the tournament.
MRI Predicts: Boston College Confidence Factor: 50.92%
Virginia Tech at Penn State: Penn State is starting to turn things around. They should at least be out of the basement in the Big Ten this season. The question will be if Virginia Tech can do the same. This game is really a toss up in every sense. I can't imagine that the tournament will come down to who wins this game, but given the way the MRI is picking the game this season and the picks for today, it might.
MRI Predicts: Penn State Confidence Factor: 54.54%
So given these picks, the ACC should be a little scared tonight, but should win the tournament 6-5. Something in my gut tells me that it will be a little bigger spread than that, but beware the computer.
One last game just like yesterday (a winner by the way).
Missouri at Arkansas: I know I ripped a little on Missouri before, but they are off to a great start and their sole loss was to a Michigan State team that they really gave everything to before losing. And since they beat Maryland by 14, you have to give them at least a "very good" win on their resume along with the "good" loss to the Spartans. The rest of their schedule hasn't been much, but tonight can change things. Arkansas already has a win over one of the good mid-major teams this season, Virginia Commonwealth, but they also have a loss to Providence (a team with a similar resume to Missouri right now). The computer is going with Missouri to take this one on the road.
MRI Predicts: Missouri Confidence Factor: 52.55%
MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 38 - 3
This Season: 57 - 6, 90.48%
All Time: 11744 - 4608, 71.82%
The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at November 28, 2007 3:20 PM
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