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November 30, 2007
Games To Watch - 11/30/07
Last night was a bad night for the Colonial conference and any hopes they might have had for two bids from the league. While it could still happen, I think the only team with a reasonable shot at an at-large bid is George Mason, should they fail to get the automatic bid.
Why the pessimism? Virginia Commonwealth, the only other team in the Colonial with the name, schedule, or team, to run with the big boys come March went down to annual MEAC favorite, Hampton. The MEAC is currently the 30th ranked conference in the MRI. While Hampton is good, a team competing in the Colonial, with a chance to win the conference should not be losing to them. VCU already has lost their high profile games (Arkansas, Miami). This will just go down as another bad loss even if Hampton comes out of its conference. The only way to redeem this is to somehow beat Maryland on Sunday, something not so likely now.
More trouble? Towson goes down to Navy. Not that this isn't expected. Towson is growing in the Colonial and never really transitioned well into the bigger and tougher league. It was a big fish in the America East before the shift of Drexel, Delaware, Hofstra, Northeastern, and Towson, to the Colonial. Now, it is struggling to keep up.
Last, the way Drexel lost to George Mason. In order to prove your league deserves a second big, especially for those leagues right on the cusp, is to show that teams can compete with the top teams in the conference, and that it is not just a one team show. Drexel lost to George Mason last night, 85-38. 47 points was a new record for a win by George Mason over a conference opponent. The worst part of this is that Drexel was supposed to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the conference. When your upper tier teams lose this badly, that leaves you scraping for a single bid.
The best thing that could happen to the Colonial now is that George Mason loses in the finals of the conference tournament, still a few months away. No other teams seems to want to prove itself to be on the same level.
Duquesne vs. Cal State Northridge in Des Moines, IA: Duquesne hasn't had the hardest schedule yet, but undefeated they are. I think it is just nice to see them coming back from the shooting that marred last season. While I don't know if the Dukes can seriously challenge Xavier for the conference crown, winning early could give them momentum that would see them playing in March for the first time since 1977. A big reason for the early fire has been their shooting close to 50% from the field, a monster number over the first five games. Tonight's game against Cal State Northridge sees them facing another team with no losses. The loser of this game will have a major effect on the MRI scores of a number of teams (based on the formulas for MOV used). The MRI sees this one going to the Dukes.
MRI Predicts: Duquesne Confidence Factor: 66.54%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Marquette: Showdown in Milwaukee. The Panthers aren't quite the same since Bruce Pearl left for Tennessee. However, if they can stay in the game, I wouldn't rule out the crowd turning to support UW-M since they will only be a little down the road from their own friendly confines. This is a great game for the Milwaukee area (along with the Marquette rivalry against Wisconsin). I don't see this one being at all close despite my personal feelings on Marquette. The MRI agrees with me.
MRI Predicts: Marquette Confidence Factor: 82.65%
Washington State at Baylor: To close, another of the Big XII - PAC-10 Hardcourt series games. You wouldn't know it by their work in football, but Baylor can play basketball. It didn't help that they had they little scandal that kept their team from playing non-conference games two years ago. That was a team (prior to their internal issues) which was thought of as a dark horse contender for the league title. However, not being able to sharpen your skills against some of the weaker teams in Division I is a recipe for disaster when it comes to the Big XII. Is this the year they finally turn it around in the weaker Big XII? Perhaps. Their stats are still a little too mediocre against less than stellar competition though to take a challenge seriously. Washington State is expected to be among the contenders for the PAC-10 crown, and this year more than last, I think they finally have a team worth looking at seriously not only in the conference but nationwide. I have never been a style of the Bennett teams, either Tony (WSU's coach now), or his father Dick (previous WSU coach and former coach at Wisconsin). I don't like teams that scrape their way defensively and have to eek out wins. It doesn't make for good basketball. It makes for NBA-lite teams. And it doesn't translate well into the MRI. However, the hot shooting of Derrick Low and his back court mates have me a little more optimistic about the Cougars this year. The MRI likes this one to be close, but Baylor will probably have a hard time hanging with their West coast opponent.
MRI Predicts: Washington State Confidence Factor: 51.13%
MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 13 - 7
This Season: 119 - 31, 79.33%
All Time: 11806 - 4633, 71.82%
The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at November 30, 2007 1:30 PM
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