« Over Expansion? You Bet | Main | The MRI Says...11/8/07 »
November 8, 2007
Kentucky Oops? Just Par for the Course
It is probably hard to miss these days. When a team from one of the smaller college upsets one of the big boys, on their home floor, none the less, it is big news. We saw it in football, with Appalachian State taking down Michigan.
Last night, we saw it in Kentucky as they lost to Gardner-Webb, 84-68. As far as we now, no one was calling Tubby Smith up in Minnesota to see if he would come back. The era of Billy Gillispie is off to a rocky start.
There are lots of moans on the message boards today about the state of the program. Some can't believe that Tubby Smith left the cupboard as bare as it looks. Some can't believe that Saint Billy wasn't able to turn the tide so quickly.
But should we really be worried? It is rare that a loss this early in the season will derail a team that should still make it to the NCAA tournament. And a loss this early is difficult to judge. While this is a huge win for Gardner-Webb - anytime you have a victory over Kentucky on your resume, it is a good thing - this isn't going to hold Kentucky back from success this season, if the team is really the 22nd best team in the country.
This is not a new thing. Last year, Butler (while not as low down the rankings as G-W) ran through to a pre-season NIT championship. Two years ago, Sam Houston took down Missouri, and Drexel made it through to the pre-season NIT Final Four and almost pulled upsets over both Duke and UCLA, programs which had pretty good seasons.
Probably the one that stands out most to me was in the 2004-2005 season. North Carolina lost their opening game to Santa Clara. That didn't stop them from winning the next 14 in a row on their way to beating Illinois for the National title.
So why are these things happening? The most obvious reason is that the big boys are no longer the big boys. Players in some cases are seeing kids from smaller schools get drafted. They would rather go to a smaller school, play for four years, and make an impact, rather than sitting on the bench for two years and not getting the chance to show what they can really do on a stacked team. Some of this dispersion of talent was due to scholarship restrictions which had been put into place and now have been relaxed. Part of it is the expansion of the internet and television to include many of the smaller conference which in the past would never see the light of day.
The second reason is the capping of the exhibition games which can be held. Teams can only get in two games which won't count on their schedule. While Kentucky played one junior college, and one worthy opponent in Seattle, they did not have the chance to play two or three more games like in years past where teams would play multiple traveling all-star teams in order to tune up. Those all-star teams were mostly ex-college players, a better test for a Kentucky than a game against a junior college.
Finally, games are starting earlier and earlier in the season. It seems like Midnight Madness was only two weeks ago. While this should be more than enough time to get ready for Gardner-Webb when you are Kentucky, it does cause trouble. Imagine preparing for three teams with less than the normal amount of film. Add to that being a rookie coach at the most passionate basketball school in the country where your margin for error is a little slim. Add to that having to convince players you didn't recruit that you are now the man that can take them to the next level.
It is a lot to deal with. Most teams couldn't do it. We saw Memphis struggle. We saw Connecticut struggle. And we have seen others in the past struggle too.
This loss won't mean a thing come tournament time. Here's hoping that Kentucky is in a 4-13 match-up with the winner of the Atlantic Sun conference.
Posted by bmiraski at November 8, 2007 1:50 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.mrisports.com/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/492
