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December 4, 2007
Games To Watch - 12/4/07
It has been a tough few days for the MRI. I can almost compare this to the battle in football this season, where the predictions had a two week run where it seemed like nothing went right.
That wasn't exactly the truth. The MRI in football actually got 71% right this season, despite all of the upsets that we saw throughout the year. It was a slightly better percentage than it normally did, so I take that as a good sign. However, there were a few dark weeks.
Let's just hope it doesn't go that long for the MRI in basketball, or you never know who you will see at the top.
A little note on last night, also with a little reference to football season. One of the knocks on Ohio State playing in the National Championship was that their schedule out of conference was terrible, and with the way that the Big Ten played, that their in-conference schedule didn't really have any "big" games on it. This is in comparison to the SEC or the Big XII, whose teams normally play difficult games out of conference, or have a conference slate that can help improve the full profile of the league.
In last night's action, we saw Indiana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, all score easy wins in non-conference games. Outside of the ACC-Big Ten challenge, which saw the Big Ten look silly, there hasn't really been a team that has truly stepped up outside of league play except for Ohio State. Their grand total of wins in the big games (Syracuse, Texas A&M, UNC, Butler): 1, against Syracuse, probably the weakest of the four teams at this point in the season.
Yes, the teams may have a nice game or two on their schedule. Michigan State played UCLA. Indiana took on Xavier, and Southern Illinois. Michigan decided to get itself crushed by Georgetown and Butler, and they play Duke next. However, in each of the "up" games, they Big Ten has looked over powered and out matched.
This is supposed to be a down year for the league overall, but they haven't helped themselves with the scheduling or the performance in the few games that they have which could mean something come March.
Now they just have to wish that their performance then is better than what is expected out of the league when they square up in the bowl games. Only 2 of the eight bowl teams is favored in Vegas, and one of those is against a MAC opponent, the Big Ten's annual whipping boy when it comes to their non-conference slate.
One last thought before tonight's games. For those thinking that Memphis will run away with Conference USA this season and no other teams will have a chance to even play come March, don't get your hopes up. Tom Penders has Houston at 7-1, a nice start, and that loss was by only 1 to Virginia Commonwealth. The Cougars also have big games against Kentucky and Arizona which will look good if they can pull a win in one of them. Plus, they get two cracks at Memphis, which if they can score a win, almost locks them into a slot in the tournament with 20 wins. UAB and Marshall have chances at a sniff from the committee but Houston has the best hope for a slot in the field of 64.
Houston should have no issues with Toledo tonight which leads us to the rest of the MRI's thoughts:
Holy Cross at St. Joseph's: Two mid-majors (man, I still remember when the A-10 was relevant) who have a shot at coming out of their leagues, without the automatic bid, should things continue to go their way this season. This is essentially a playoff for the two if they are both on the bubble at the end of the season. Tim Clifford, at 6' 11", 260 is a force in the middle for the Crusaders, and the MRI thinks that gives them the slight edge in this one.
MRI Predicts: Holy Cross Confidence Factor: 54.72%
Kansas State vs MRI #13 Notre Dame: I can't help but wonder what Kansas State would be like if Bob Huggins had not left to take over at West Virginia. I am not doubting current Wildcat coach Frank Martin, but I know that Huggins would have been able to mold something special around Michael Beasley which wouldn't have Kansas State dropping all of the big games on their schedule. Maybe it wouldn't take anything more than passing the ball! and the team not standing around watching him. This one is in MSG as part of the Jimmy V Classic.
MRI Predicts: Notre Dame Confidence Factor: 70.57%
MRI #22 Michigan State at Bradley: I know what I said about the Big Ten schedules this season, but at least Michigan State is going on the road for some of these games. The Carver Arena is not an easy place to play for the visiting team. I am sure my brother will be one of the few in green there tonight. Peoria isn't necessarily a mecca for Big Ten graduates. And good luck to Bradley who is off to a nice start after an early stumble against Illinois-Chicago. The Braves may be a force in the Missouri Valley this season, and I can't wait until they play Southern Illinois.
MRI Predicts: Michigan State Confidence Factor: 54.72%
USC vs. MRI #7 Memphis: Freshman standoff tonight: Derrick Rose against OJ Mayo. Rose has more around him, and I don't see this one being close. Look folks, I know OJ Mayo is good, but USC isn't really the #23 team in the country (more like #64 like in the MRI). They can't really claim that rating until either the teams they beat live up to their expectations, or they get a real big name win under their belts. Call me when they either win tonight or against Stanford.
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence Factor: 70.57%
MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 8 -11
This Season: 226 - 93, 70.85%
All Time: 11913 - 4695, 71.73%
The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at December 4, 2007 3:00 PM
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