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Games To Watch - 12/5/07
December 5, 2007 | By Benjamin Miraski
If you looked at the score of the Tennessee - Chattanooga game and thought that it should have been a bigger spread, you are probably right. However, the score probably should have been going in the other direction.
Tennessee, a team expected to take the SEC crown with only scant pressure from Vanderbilt, was out-rebounded by the Mocs, and shot a season low 36%. If they had not forced Chattanooga into 33 (!!) turnovers, you could have expected to be reading about another upset of a top ten team this morning.
On another note last night, you can look at Harvard's game against Boston University for one of the reasons Tommy Amaker was let go from Michigan. I know I thought he deserved a little more time with the Wolverines. However, you can't lose games that you are supposed to win. Now, I am not saying that Boston University should have been a "gimmee" win for Harvard, but the Terriers were only 1-6 entering the game last night. Add in that Harvard was coming off a big win against Michigan, no matter how bad Michigan is going to be this season. You have to ride that wave and take it to another victory, not lose all momentum. I can see the headlines on all of the Michigan blogs this morning: "Same old Tommy".
Looking out West, it was a bad night for the Mountain West conference. The two teams expected to be near the top of the league, New Mexico and Air Force, both lost games on the road against inferior opponents. New Mexico lost to in-state rival, and member of the lagging WAC, New Mexico State by 9. Air Force was taken down by the MAC's 1-6 (prior to the game) Northern Illinois. Repeating my statement from the Harvard game, you have to win the games you are expected to win.
One final note before looking at tonight. I should apologize for making anyone watch the USC - Memphis game last night. USC had a nice game plan, forcing everyone not named Derrick Rose to beat them. It worked for most of the game because they forced Memphis into terrible possessions which led to turnover after turnover. But that is not what I wanted to point out.
Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo are not ready for the NBA.
There, I said it. Neither one has a game developed enough to move to the next level. Neither of these guys is a Greg Oden, or a Kevin Durant, who came into college last year, and already had most of the skills they needed in order to succeed at the next level. While I thought Durant was undersized (he has been hitting the weights), and Oden needed a few more low post moves, they were ready.
However, Beasley and Mayo continue to confound me. Yes, I can see the talent that is there. However, it is too raw for the next level. I can't see coaches at the next level working to refine their game. It is going to take a miracle for them to step in and be ready. Just look at Mayo's shooting. The boy is a 20-year old freshman and he has terrible shot selection. He also struggles in man to man defense, not keeping an eye on the ball and the man at the same time. This actually allowed Memphis to get a couple of easier baskets last night (although nothing really came easy for them), because Mayo was just looking at his opponent's belly button the entire time. They need more time.
Do I have faith in the NBA scouts to notice this, or for people with smarts to tell them this? No. But it will definitely come as a shock to these two when they are sitting on the bench in the NBA next season, instead of starting, and improving, in the college ranks.
Let's look at tonight:
Hampton at George Mason: The MEAC has some big wins this season, and their biggest hope is that they can find a way for their champion to play their way out of the play-in game. The Pirates already have a win over Virginia Commonwealth, which is probably the #2 team in the Colonial. Tonight they have a chance to knock off their third Colonial team of the season (they have also beaten Delaware). Playing on the road could be their undoing though. Look for about 25 from Will Thomas as the Patriots win a close one.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence Factor: 73.25%
MRI #7 Pittsburgh at MRI #23 Duquesne: People in Pittsburgh should be coming out in droves for this one. Duquesne is actually good. People should be watching them. The MRI likes this one to be close, although I am not sure on that one. Either way, this might be one of the few times you see this game when both teams are ranked by my computer.
MRI Predicts: Pittsburgh Confidence Factor: 52.15%
MRI #14 Creighton at MRI #2 Xavier: Xavier has slipped temporarily from the top spot in the MRI. Tonight is a chance for them to get it back. You should look at this game as a seeding battle come March. I would expect similar records (and resumes) out of these two by the end of the year, and this could be the difference between a 5 or 6 seed for one of the teams. Maybe I am wrong and both will be higher, but given the way things normally go in the committee, I think the best spot is maybe a 4 for either of them (the committee is still a little too "Major"-biased to allow both of these teams to get protected seeds with a good season). Being in Cincinnati is a huge difference in this one. Xavier takes this early "Bracket Buster"-type game.
MRI Predicts: Xavier Confidence Factor: 78.72%
Washington State at Gonzaga: This is the big game of the night. Washington State is man enough to travel down the road to Spokane and face Gonzaga at home. The Kennel is not a friendly place for visiting teams. I see rebounding differential as being the key statistic tonight. The team that can control the boards and win itself some second chance opportunities will take this one home. That edge goes to Gonzaga, and the Zags work their way back into the MRI top 25.
MRI Predicts: Gonzaga Confidence Factor: 70.61%
MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 19 - 9
This Season: 245 - 102, 70.61%
All Time: 11932 - 4704, 71.72%
The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted December 5, 2007 12:30 PM
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