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Games To Watch - 12/18/07
December 18, 2007 | By Benjamin Miraski
Monday night didn't bring us much to watch, hence the lack of a Games to Watch last night. The biggest news in the MRI world came in two games last night.
Duke easily brought down Albany. That win moved them back to the #2 spot in the MRI. I mentioned in yesterday's ratings release that Duke's strength over the early part of the season was a major reason that they were still in the top 5 after not playing for an entire week. Last night served almost as a scrimmage for Thursday's big game against Pittsburgh. Duke currently has a 59.15% chance of winning that game, at the "neutral" site of Madison Square Garden. I quote neutral because Duke has a ridiculous record at MSG, which could work in their favor.
The second game of interest in the MRI last night was the loss by the Southland's Texas Arlington to TCU. The loss was the first of the year for UT-Arlington and dropped them from #46 to #59 in the MRI. That doesn't seem like much, but UT-Arlington needed every victory they could prior to conference season beginning. Positioning themselves higher in the MRI and other statistical rankings was almost the only way that the team could remain on the radar for an at large bid come March. It is a possibility that UT-Arlington could get back in the mix, but the bottom half of the conference will definitely pull down the Mavericks as they continue to play out the season (and likely win a majority of the games).
There remain 13 teams without a loss this season, and there are still 13 teams without a Division 1 victory.
On to tonight:
Southern Illinois at Western Michigan: Another test for Southern Illinois. I am not sure what to think at this point about the Salukis given they crazy season to date. The win over St. Mary's was impressive, and could have Southern Illinois back on track. The game at Western Michigan tonight is a big deal to both teams. The MRI slightly leans toward the Salukis on the road.
MRI Predicts: Southern Illinois Confidence Factor: 52.26%
Kentucky at Houston: The loss by Kentucky over the weekend to UAB was a big one on two fronts. First, it showed that Kentucky has a long way to go to get back to where they will be contending each season. Part of that is transition to a new style of offense and defense. Part of that was just a lull in recruiting from Tubby Smith to Billy Gillispie. The folks in Kentucky just need patience as Billy-Ball will have Kentucky back at the top sometime soon. The second piece that was important in that game was a win for Mike Davis who needs all the victories he can get as he tries to re-establish himself as a coach in Birmingham.
Tonight, Kentucky takes on 9-1 Houston. Normally you would expect an easy victory for the Wildcats. However, the MRI is leaning heavily in the Cougars' favor.
MRI Predicts: Houston Confidence Factor: 82.99%
New Orleans at Southern Mississippi: New Orleans was a surprise in the early going but they have gone a little under the radar lately. Southern Mississippi for their part has inflated their record against non-D. 1 teams, while losing to Alabama, Cal, and South Alabama. Losing to teams who have had such good starts has helped the Southern Mississippi MRI to date. While the computer likes them slightly, I think New Orleans has a good chance to pull off the upset and by a large margin. This will be a nice win prior to the start of their conference season.
MRI Predicts: Southern Mississippi Confidence Factor: 50.99%
MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 26 - 5
This Season: 533 - 199, 72.81%
All Time: 12220 - 4801, 71.79%
The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted December 18, 2007 2:15 PM
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