Just like in the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness is Big Brown’s race to lose. He demonstrated in the Derby just how much of a beast he may be. Big Brown seemed relax and just jogging around most of the way until finally being asked to run past the competition and win in impressive fashion. Just as I noted a couple weeks ago, he seems clearly above the peers in the 3-year-old class, so he can regress from his Derby effort and still be the best in the field by a few lengths.

The main competition that exists is a horse I admittedly liked in the Derby to finish behind Big Brown – Gayego. Even in real-time watching the rush for the first turn, it was obvious Gayego was in trouble and had to get pulled back to keep from causing all type of chaos. But with fewer horses and a different pace scenario, jockey Mike Smith should be able to keep him in a more optimal place around Pimlico. And while I don’t think Gayego is a better horse on the whole, in any given race you never know, so he’s the play to either upset the Triple Crown run or else play heavy underneath.

As for the rest of the field, the Preakness has a history of one of the longer shots hitting the board, often finishing strong and sneaking into second. While this can be a crap shoot, the two horses I am intrigued by (now that Behindatthebar is out) are Tres Borrachos and Racecar Rhapsody, both 30-1 in the morning line.

So the bottom line becomes this – after the race, I expect the focus to be on Big Brown heading to Belmont in search of Triple Crown history. He really does seem to have something extra that the likes of War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones didn’t. And hopefully that excitement – combined with the emerging results of seemingly no foul play in the tragedy of Eight Belles – will help the horse-racing world shine.

----For entertainment purposes, Chris’ Kentucky Derby write-up from 5/2/08---

It’s that time of year again. That’s right...Derby Time!

For those of you that have gotten this before, you’ll probably note it’s a little shorter due to time crunch as well as a couple horses I clearly like. For those new, here’s a window into my horse racing obsession so welcome to the club! But as I received at least 10 notes already this week asking where my picks were, here we go.

For ENTERTAINMENT only (I again hereby remove any responsibility if you use my picks…albeit last year it would have MADE YOU MONEY, ending a couple year drought), here is my best shot at what might happen Saturday at Churchill:

More than recent years, there is a much smaller group of horses of the 20 that I will be including in my tickets, and particularly fewer in the top and second spots, opening it up a little bit to finish out the tri. To that extent, it’s likely that when I hit the window to place my bets, a larger portion will be on exactas trying to hit heavy on the top 2 and then a little more pickup on my throw-outs not crashing the podium party.

With no further ado, even though it will make me sound like the rest of the chalk-picking handicappers, I am firmly on the Big Brown bandwagon. To be fair, I have been solidly there since 1 furlong left in him Florida Derby romp. As he steamed toward the finish line, the folks I was watching with can attest that all I could say was “Wow!”…ironically followed by the ESPN broadcast of silence finally followed by a simple “Wow!” That word summed it up, and despite all the other preps and horses, I really believe it’s his to lose. The outside post position nor only having 3 life-time starts doesn’t scare me, only the fear that he could have moved over the top after that effort and regress. But given what he’s done, he’s the only one that could run sub-par and still be a legit factor.

After Big Brown, I am going to surprise some folks and actually go with the West coast contingency. Even after moving out to this side of the country, I have never gotten on the bandwagons of the West Coast horses even in years that crew seemed strong. But Colonel John is my second favorite horse, with his impressive close in the Santa Anita Derby and my opinion that he’ll like the extra 1/8-mile at Churchill. Follow that with Gayego’s victory when shipped out to Arkansas and even the solid consistency of Bob Black Jack - 4 straight Beyers of 94+ in a field with many that don’t have any that high and a few with only one that match it – and it just seems like the California horses are due to make their mark back in Louisville.

Other horses of note that I will include in some way, but most likely sparingly in 2nd on the exacta and a little to close out a tri:

• Tale of Ekati: intrigues me a little, but not overly impressed with his Wood win


• Court Vision: despite his 3rd in the Wood, actually like him more than Tale of Ekati and he could be one of the horses kicking strong from the back down the stretch


• Eight Belles: A filly running with the boys, her credentials are as impressive as just about any of the males, but running first time against them can be a big difference. Can see her getting a piece but would be a Hollywood story for her to actually win the roses


• Pyro: A big early favorite that has struggled; I wouldn’t be completely shocked for him to bounce back and win it, but don’t think it’s worth the chance to play him too heavily up top. I’ll let him beat me but give him a chance to prove his Blue Glass was a fluke. Sometimes you have to take a stand against a favorite or two, and this is mine. Come after the race we’ll see if it was the stupid stand or not…


• Recapturetheglory: It will be really interesting to see how quickly he goes out to the lead, and how Big Brown plays it beside him. If he can’t get clean out front, he might be a turn behind by the end. But while I don’t think he can hold on to win, could at least factor in on cashed tickets if he makes the lead by the first turn

So as most of you know, I end by splitting the ones I like into ‘Tiers’ that help me organize my – ahem – rooting interests, so:
Group 1a: Big Brown (his to lose)
Group 1b: Colonel John, Gayego
Group 2: Pyro, Bob Black Jack, Eight Belles, Court Vision
Group 3: Tale of Ekati, Recapturetheglory
And any of the others I’ll applaud their effort and win, lose my investment, and just try next time.

Well, there’s your entertainment value, for fun only of course. Enjoy!

Chris Hahn is an IT consultant who guest writes for MRISports.com on horse racing and other topics.