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2008 Big XII Preview
August 21, 2008 | By Benjamin Miraski
It is time to get back into the swing of things at MRISports.com, and that means a return to what you all come here for: A chance to rip on my predictions.
Once again as part of the Tailgate at Blogcritics, I will be previewing the Big XII conference each week, and this year, I will also be tackling the ACC.
To start though, the old standby: The Big XII
Big XII South
1. Oklahoma Coach: Bob Stoops 2007: 11-3 (7-2), Lost Fiesta Bowl Head of the Class – What is there not to like about the Sooners? There was no off-season drama. Sam Bradford looks like the real deal, and again they have one of the most punishing offensive lines in the country. Plus, their schedule shapes up well skipping Missouri and with all of the toughest games at home.
Underachievers – Since Adrian Peterson was injured and then left early for the NFL, it is has been running back by committee in Norman. Now that Bradford is a known commodity, the running game is going to have to back him to a greater extent. Not a problem with the line the Sooners have but it is always a little tricky when there is not a featured back game after game.
Academic Suspension – It is always a good sign when the worst thing someone can say about you is that you are starting a freshman kicker. Jimmy Stevens should be taking over the reins of the kicking job, and we know how many games often come down to important kicks. With Oklahoma’s offense, this shouldn’t be an issue, but it is something to watch.
2. Texas Coach: Mack Brown 2007: 10-3 (5-3), Won Holiday Bowl Head of the Class – Mack Brown has turned Texas into Linemen University. The Longhorns again have one of the best lines on both sides of the ball despite losing two starters from the defense. While the Big XII is slowly shifting to a spread-offense conference, most of the games are still won and lost in the trenches and there is nothing bad to say about the men who work on those lines for Texas.
Underachievers – Where did the Colt McCoy from his freshman season go? He might have still been feeling the hangovers of that season’s injuries and hit last year. When the defenses finally got to him, I think it made him wake up and realize that he was in college. Last season, McCoy seemed more tentative with the ball. It will be up to him to get Texas back to the top of the league, so he better be ready for it.
Academic Suspension – The defense loses 7 starters and the schedule is not too kind to Texas. They get Missouri and Texas A&M at home, but still have a tough trip to Kansas (wow, that is strange to say) and Texas Tech. Don’t expect an undefeated run with a stretch of games like this. Mack Brown might want to make sure he actually beats A&M this year too (two straight losses).
3. Texas Tech Coach: Mike Leach 2007: 9-4 (4-4), Won Gator Bowl
Head of the Class – Defense and air power are the name of the game in Lubbock. The Red Raiders had one of the best defenses in the league after they dumped their defensive coordinator following the loss to Oklahoma State last year. And no one can underestimate the air attack that Leach puts on the field. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are both back to make defensive backs’ heads spin.
Underachievers – The running game (yes, they have one) took a step backwards last season, but the Red Raiders actually did better in the win-loss column. With the entire line and running core back, Texas Tech should actually have a more balanced offense this year, giving Harrell a break from running from the defense.
Academic Suspension – To move up to 10 wins, the Red Raiders are going to have to find a way to get past both Oklahoma and Texas which will not be an easy task. While this might be their most talented team, they are still a step behind the two goliaths of the division. Plus, Tech has to travel to Oklahoma, where they haven’t won since 1996.
4. Oklahoma State Coach: Mike “41” Gundy 2007: 7-6 (4-4), Won Insight Bowl
Head of the Class – Now that all that craziness about Bobby Reid is over with his transfer, the Cowboys can settle on Zac Robinson at quarterback, where he did fairly well in his replacement role last season. Add in one of the most experienced offensive lines in the conference, and the big score attack of Oklahoma State might just show up this season.
Underachievers – The defensive backfield finished in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of effectiveness. That leaves a lot of room for improvement. With most of the unit back, they should be improved, a big necessity in the now high flying Big XII. The Cowboys should live and die by the effectiveness of their defense this season, so let’s say their life depends on that improvement.
Academic Suspension – While I am tempted to say Mike Gundy should get the nod here, I am going to go with the not so friendly schedule and division that Oklahoma State has to tackle. They play Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech all on the road which will not help them, plus they have a super-weak non-conference slate. All that, and having to play in the South Division will do them no favors. They are fourth by default.
5. Texas A&M Coach: Mike Sherman 2007: 7-6 (4-4), Lost Alamo Bowl
Head of the Class -- The best news for A&M might have been the departure of Dennis Franchione, who not only had his newsletter scandal, but a knack for losing too. Enter Mike Sherman who had some success at the pro level and will be looking to have that translate into something in College Station. Keeping his nose clean might be the best move in a first season which looks to be a little rocky.
Underachievers – The entire starting backfield returns which should be good news, but they were squite spotty in games last season. Stephen McGee should step it up in his senior season and if Jorvorskie Lane can return to his 2006 form, maybe there is some hope for the offense.
Academic Suspension – The offensive line is a huge issue going into the season. With only one major starter returning, the early part of the season will be spent not only learning a new system, but learning to play together. McGee is going to need a lot of ice bags to recover from all the pounding he will take. The second big issue will be whether the team keeps it together. It was obvious they quit on Franchione last year. Now with a new system, will the team lose confidence quickly if the wins don’t happen?
6. Baylor Coach: Art Briles 2007: 3-9 (0-8)
Head of the Class – Returning nine offensive starters is the only thing looking good for Baylor this season. While last season seemed to be their best chance to get to a bowl, they couldn’t eek out a single Big XII victory. Having the experience on their side, especially on the offensive line, should help, but then again, this is Baylor.
Underachievers – This is Baylor. They always underachieve. New coach Art Briles might have a few surprises up his sleeve. Briles comes from Houston, where he had some success. Now, he has a chance to show what he can do in the big leagues with the consistently worst team in conference.
Academic Suspension – Baylor will be lucky to squeak out 2 victories this season, playing in the South against Oklahoma, Texas and the rest. Let’s just stick with the Underachiever mantra: This is Baylor.
Big XII North
1. Missouri Coach: Gary Pinkel 2007: 12-2 (7-2), Won Cotton Bowl
Head of the Class – Missouri starts and ends with Chase Daniel. The Heisman contender should be right in the mix for the most prestigious award in college football until the last week of the season. The biggest knock against him this season might be the schedule as Missouri misses Oklahoma and outside of Illinois, the non-conference slate is very weak. There should be little keeping Daniel from at least repeating as Big XII offensive player of the year.
Underachievers – Sean Weatherspoon should lead one of the best linebacking cores in the country this season once again. He scored 130 tackles last year, and with the whole unit returning, behind a very veteran defensive line, look for teams to have to take Missouri deep to get anything going against them. While all the talk this year will focus on the offense, the defense will keep this team in the running for an undefeated year.
Academic Suspension – It is hard to find holes in Missouri. The biggest challenge might be having lost their center and left tackle on the offensive line, two important positions. If the line gels quickly with its new blood, there is nothing holding Missouri back.
2. Nebraska Coach: Bo Pelini 2007: 5-7 (2-6)
Head of the Class – I am still smarting from picking Nebraska to win the North last season, so call me a little skeptical putting them at #2 in the division this season, especially with a new head coach. My best bet for Nebraska is that Marlon Lucky will emerge as a dark horse Heisman candidate. While the runners in this year’s class are very good, Lucky has shown he has the ability and in a new offense focused on running, Lucky will excel. Plus he will take the head off new quarterback Joe Ganz.
Underachievers – The defense has to improve. Last year’s squad never looked like the famed Blackshirts and has a lot of ground to make up to get that label back. Adding Pelini at head coach should help, having been an assistant at Nebraska, and leading the great defenses at LSU. This unit will have Nebraska competing while everyone counts them out.
Academic Suspension – Nebraska only returns 11 starters, but that might be a bonus for the team which was just embarrassing last season. Forgetting the Bill Callahan Experience should be easy when so many of the names on the field change. Plus Pelini will likely run a much more disciplined team, which should stop them from having off-field incidents that went along with the sorry on-field play last season.
3. Colorado Coach: Dan Hawkins 2007: 6-7 (4-4), Lost Independence Bowl
Head of the Class – With so much returning talent, Colorado should improve on its .500 conference record last season. They had a couple of close losses go against them, and they have a big upset win against Oklahoma to build on. Look for Cody Hawkins to lead a much more mature offense in 2008.
Underachievers – Behind Hawkins in the backfield are likely two freshmen, one a red shirt. Getting the running game moving will be a big part of Colorado’s success but they should have an easier time than you would expect with very highly rated Darrell Scott the likely starter. Scott’s 4.3 speed should have the Buffs running all over the competition…
Academic Suspension – …until you see who that competition is. West Virginia and Florida State are part of the non-conference slate, and Colorado has Missouri, Texas A&M and Missouri on the road. Colorado has upset ability so don’t count out them as my surprise third place team. However, it is going to take some luck like they had last season against Oklahoma.
4. Kansas Coach: Mark Mangino 2007: 12-1 (7-1), Won Orange Bowl
Head of the Class – Todd Reesing was spectacular in leading Kansas to the Orange Bowl last season. He should continue to be the best part of the Jayhawk team, despite my ranking of them fourth this season. He will be challenged with some changes on the offensive line, but if the brilliance of last season is there, you can’t count out Kansas yet.
Underachievers – Someone has to catch the ball from Reesing, and Kansas lost two of its best receivers to the pros. The receiving core will need to mature quickly, especially since Kansas won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
Academic Suspension – Kansas again draws the top three teams from the South division on their schedule, something they missed out on during last season’s run. I didn’t like Kansas last year when they had the easy schedule. I really don’t like it when they have to play all the best from the other side. This is probably underestimating the Jayhawk team, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall back to Earth.
5. Kansas State Coach: Ron Prince 2007: 5-7 (3-5)
Head of the Class – Kansas State returns seven starters on offense, and adds a number of JUCO transfers which should offset some of the losses. Look for the more experienced offense to run smoother than last year, and not have the fitful starts and stops. This team had a majorly disappointing season last year, and the offense can only improve its standing with all of the returns.
Underachievers – Kansas State was the ultimate underachiever last season, losing to a discombobulated Nebraska team and Iowa State. And that was after a surprising win against Texas. The Wildcats will need to pull one upset to get back to a bowl this year and not collapse against a team they should beat.
Academic Suspension – Kansas State replaces a large part of the defensive line, and given that some of the best offensive lines in the country play in the Big XII, that could mean a long season. Luckily, the Wildcats have an easier run through the non-conference slate before the challenges, so it is possible to get ahead of the pain that is coming.
6. Iowa State Coach: Gene Chizik 2007: 3-9 (2-6)
Head of the Class – Oklahoma and Texas are gone from Iowa State’s schedule, so they have a little more breathing room in conference this season, even after surprising with two wins in the league last year. Iowa State also gets all of the tough foes coming to them this year, which could bode well for an upset. Don’t count out Iowa State from being better than last year and getting a win that makes you scratch your head.
Underachievers – Austen Arnaud takes over for four-year starter Bret Meyer which could be a big question mark for the offense. Arnaud has some speed and Chizik plans to take advantage of his versatility to shake up the game plan. If Arnaud quickly comes of age, he could be one of the best stories in the league this season especially behind a veteran offensive line.
Academic Suspension – Iowa State doesn’t yet have the talent to compete week after week in the Big XII. While they make get a couple more upsets this season, the Cyclones are more likely to go winless in the league than end up .500.
Bold Prediction:
- Oklahoma runs the table and plays for all the marbles against a team from the SEC… and wins.
- Missouri will be undefeated when they meet Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, making the battle the best, and most important, conference championship in any league.
Games to Watch:
- The Red River Shootout, which is no longer called that, pitting Oklahoma and Texas will be one of the best games of the season, and should decide the South, although I don't think Texas will only have a single loss in conference.
- Missouri at Nebraska the first week in October will be the best gauge of whether Nebraska has turned the corner.
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted August 21, 2008 2:34 PM
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