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Projecting The Tournament: Official Bracket Edition

March 17, 2009  |  By Benjamin Miraski

Louisville might be dancing, but the computer thinks they are ripe for an upset... from their own conference (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)Enough messing around with half-cocked predictions based on Joe Lunardi. Come on, the guy only got 64 of the 65 teams correct this year. How can you actually trust someone who isn't right 100 percent of the time?

Of course, I kid.

But the MRI does not kid. It gives it to you straight, albeit with some nice percentages attached to cover its silicon behind.

So what are the chances of your precious school making it all the way through to compete in Detroit (by the way, maybe the NCAA should look more closely at its scheduling. Is Detroit really a "destination location" for anything these days? Even the auto show might be in danger.)?

Well, the MRI can't exactly give you that... at least not yet. That is an off-season Excel programming exercise. But for right now, we can tell you what the computer picks for every game in the NCAA tournament. (NIT picks for the first round are here.)

How is that for a compromise?

Let's go to the brackets. Each team will be listed in the round it goes out (up to the Final Four) with the chance of them LOSING the game. It is simple math to get the chance of them winning.

After each round, we will post updated editions with the chances for the rest of the tournament.

Opening Round Flame-out
Alabama State (54%)

One and Done:
Midwest: Morehead State (91.8%), Ohio State (60.2%), Arizona (72.4%), Cleveland State (78.24%), Dayton (82.65%), North Dakota State (82.65%), Boston College (66.7%), Robert Morris (85.6%)
West: Chattanooga (93.5%), Texas A&M (72.4%), Northern Iowa (82.6%), Mississippi State (78.2%), Utah State (60.2%), Cornell (85.65%), Maryland (60.2%), Cal State Northridge (93.85%)
South: Radford (98.76%), Butler (60.2%), Western Kentucky (66.7%), Akron (85.65%), Temple (70.3%), Stephen Austin (78.2%), Michigan (82.65%), Morgan State (82.65%)
East: East Tennessee State (91.8%), Oklahoma State (66.7%), Florida State (60.2%), Portland State (82.65%), Virginia Commonwealth (78.24%), American (93.49%), Minnesota (66.7%), Binghamton (93.49%)

Two and Out:
Midwest: Siena (72.40%), Utah (60.2%), Kansas (53.9%), USC (78.2%)
West: BYU (66.7%), Washington (50.17%), Marquette (70.3%), Cal (91.82%)
South: LSU (93.49%), Illinois (72.4%), Arizona State (51/67%), Clemson (53.93%)
East: Tennessee (82.65%), Wisconsin (72.4%), Villanova (51.67%), Texas (82.65%)

Sweet Sixteen Departures:
Midwest: Wake Forest (72.4%), Michigan State (60.23%)
West: Purdue (70.32%), Missouri (72.4%)
South: Gonzaga (78.2%), Syracuse (60.23%)
East: Xavier (78.2%), UCLA (66.7%)

Not-So-Elite Eight:
Midwest: Louisville (53.9%)
West: Connecticut (72.4%)
South: Oklahoma (78.2%)
East: Duke (66.7%)

Final Four Matchups:
West Virginia vs. Memphis -- Winner: Memphis (72.4%)
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh -- Winner: North Carolina (53.93%)

National Champion: Memphis (53.93%)

The MRI Rankings are copyright 2009 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski is a freelance reporter, edits and writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. He also is the Northwestern Wildcats Examiner for Examiner.com. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com


Posted March 17, 2009 4:26 PM