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Big Number Country - Big XII Preview, Week 5

September 30, 2010  |  By Alexander Miraski

First off, my apologies for the lack of a preview last week. I spent the week in a haze of cold medicine and chicken soup. Luckily, I’ve now shaken the bug and can get back to what I do best: failing at picking against the spread.

What is wrong with Texas?

Or more specifically, what is wrong with the Texas offense?

Granted, the defense didn’t play very well against UCLA, especially in the second half, but they’ve generally been very good, especially in the game against Texas Tech.

The offense, on the other hand, has struggled to consistently move the ball and has been plagued by turnovers at inopportune moments. Frankly, they just don’t look like a conference title contender at the moment.

So then, what is the issue?

I agree somewhat with Stewart Mandel’s assessment in his mailbag this week that the switch in offensive philosophies has hindered the development of the offensive line. The Longhorns, he argues, just can’t run the ball effectively if the offensive line is unable to create the holes the backs need.

That is a fair point, but I would argue that the blame has to also fall on the running backs themselves. There have been three different starters in four games due to injury or ineffectiveness, and no back has run for more than 182 total yards yet. While there have not been lanes to run through, a standout back should be able to create something out of almost nothing, particularly when facing inferior competition.

The lack of a power running game has had a residual affect on the growth of quarterback Garrett Gilbert and the passing game. Gilbert will have trouble making plays if opposing defenses can just key in on stopping him.

Until a running back can emerge to carry the load, Texas will struggle to score points, and if it doesn’t happen soon, the conference title will be out of their reach before the end of October.

Thursday’s Game

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State (-3.5) - Both teams have had a week off to prepare for this game, which will go far in proving how good each team actually is.

The Oklahoma State offense has been very good so far, ranking number one in total offense, with quarterback Brandon Weeden currently ranked third in the country in pass yards. Running back Kendall Hunter is the second leading rusher nationally. So, it can be said that the Cowboys can move the football.

Texas A&M needed a second half comeback to beat Florida International two weeks ago after handling their first two opponents easily. Their offense has been good as well, led by quarterback Jerrod Johnson.

So, this game will come down to which defense can limit the damage. I would give the slight edge to Oklahoma State playing at home, and I don’t think the Aggies are that good yet. Expect a lot of scoring (more than the 66.5 over/under), pick the Cowboys and lay the points.

Saturday’s Games

Kansas at Baylor (-9) - Kansas has had an up and down non-conference schedule, while Baylor’s one hiccup was against BCS title contender TCU. The Bears are out to prove they are an improved team over a year ago. The first step is to beat a Jayhawks team at home that is still trying to find consistency with freshmen starting at the skill positions. Kansas also did not fair well in their first road test against Southern Mississippi. I expect Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III to have a productive day both on the ground and in the air, and leads the Bears to a win at home by 10.

Georgia at Colorado (+ 4.5) - With a disappointing start to their season, Georgia travels to take on Colorado, looking to use this non-conference tilt to forget the 0-3 conference record. The Bulldogs will get receiver A.J. Green back this week from NCAA suspension, which should help to solidify the offense. A win by Colorado would be a big boost before they start their conference schedule next week, and they have performed well in Boulder this season.

With that being said, I don’t think that Colorado has enough overall speed to go toe-to-toe with an SEC foe and come out on top. Green makes an immediate impact for Georgia, scoring a touchdown early, and they roll over Colorado by two touchdowns.

Georgia head coach Mark Richt earns a reprieve from the coaching hotseat with the win. The same won’t be said for Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins.

Texas Tech at Iowa State (+7) - The Cyclones shut out Northern Iowa last week, but in games against Iowa and Kansas State, they had a hard time making defensive stops when needed. They struggled against the run in those games, but I don’t believe Texas Tech will stray much from their offensive philosophy to attack that weakness. In fact, Red Raider quarterback Taylor Potts should have an easier time moving the ball this week than he did against Texas two weeks ago. Iowa State running back Alexander Robinson should be able to find some holes to run through, but it won’t be enough. The Red Raiders go on the road and win. Lay the points.

Big XII Game of the Week

Texas vs. Oklahoma (-3.5) in Dallas - This rivalry game is always intriguing and this year is no different. The Oklahoma defense wants to show that the game against Florida State was the rule and not the exception. The Sooners have let Cincinnati and Air Force move the ball at will in the last two weeks.

The Texas defense is looking to shake off a poor performance as well, after allowing 264 yards rushing to UCLA. However, they have to face Sooners running back DeMarco Murray, who should be able to find a way to churn out big yards.

The Oklahoma defense should be able to bounce back, and by stopping the anemic Texas rushing attack, force Gilbert to try to make too many plays himself. This should create some turnovers and allow quarterback Landry Jones and the offense to control the clock.

I don’t see Texas staying in this game, but it is a rivalry game of the nth degree, so anything is possible. So I’ll say Oklahoma wins, but only by a field goal.

Lazy Saturday: Nebraska, Kansas State, Missouri

Record:

Week 3

Straight Up: 10-0; Against the Spread: 6-4

Overall

Straight Up: 21-1; Against the Spread: 9-11

Posted September 30, 2010 12:00 PM