Saturday’s games

Northwestern at Minnesota (+5.5) - It can be tough picking a game involving a team with its back against the wall, which is where Minnesota finds itself this week after compiling a 1-3 non-conference record. Either the team will respond to adversity and play well, or the team will self-destruct even further. I don’t know if Minnesota can beat a Northwestern team that is looking to shake off a sluggish game against Central Michigan last week. Quarterback Dan Persa has just been too good thus far, and the Minnesota defense has given up way too many yards.

But the Northwestern defense hasn’t been impenetrable, so Gophers quarterback Adam Weber, who has been the one bright spot this season, should be able to put up some good numbers. I believe the effort will be there from the Gophers, but in the end they do not have enough to beat Northwestern.

Pick Northwestern and lay the points.

Ohio State at Illinois (+17) - Ohio State goes on the road for the first time this week to face an Illinois team that has had an extra week to prepare for the Buckeyes. I don’t think Terrelle Pryor will be able to recreate the big day he had last week against an much better than advertised Illini defense, but he will still be productive.

The key for Illinois is to rely on running back Mikel LeShoure to gain the yards needed to keep Pryor on the sidelines. While LeShoure might be successful, quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will be pressured all day by the Ohio State front seven and will show his overall inexperience.

Ohio State will pull away late, but I don’t think they’ll cover that big of a spread on the road, so take the points.

Michigan at Indiana (+10.5) - Denard Robinson looks to be OK after leaving last week’s game with a knee injury. His return will ensure this game will feature a lot of offensive output. The Indiana defense has yet to face a player like Robinson, but the Michigan defense will also have a hard time stopping quarterback Ben Chappell and the receiving corps of the Hoosiers.

I can put a little more trust in the Wolverines to make the plays when needed and Robinson will continue to push Pryor in the Heisman race, though the number is too big for a game expected to be a shootout. Take the points.

Penn State at Iowa (-7) - After watching Penn State settle for field goals instead of touchdowns against Temple last week, I see the trend continuing this week against a strong Iowa defense. Running back Evan Royster did show signs of life against Temple rushing for 187 yards. Still, if Temple had an offense that could actually move the ball for more than four yards at a time, the Owls would have pulled off the upset.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi should be able to make some plays in the passing game, and running back Adam Robinson will continue his solid play. This game will look eerily similar to the Alabama game for the Nittany Lions, and that game wasn’t pretty. Lay the points.

Big Ten Game of the Week

Wisconsin at Michigan State (+2) - First of all, MSU head coach Mark Dantonio will return to coaching this week, albeit from the coaching box, as he continues to recover from the heart attack he suffered two weeks ago.

On the field, these teams are strikingly similar in their construction. Both have great running games, good and efficient passing games, and defenses that have gotten the stops when necessary. Whichever team can control the line of scrimmage on offense and defense should win this game.

The Spartans haven’t been very good at stopping Wisconsin running back John Clay in the last two meetings. Their passing defense has been unable to stop underneath routes and the tight ends for Notre Dame and Florida Atlantic both had big days against the Spartans. If they can’t control Clay, it will open up the play action passing of Scott Tolzien who should be able to find tight end Lance Kendricks a lot. The return of wide receivers Nick Toon and David Gilreath won’t hurt either.

The Wisconsin defense should be tested as well without injured linebacker Chris Borland. The Spartans will rely on running backs Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell, and quarterback Kirk Cousins has been able to find a rhythm since the second half of the Notre Dame game. The Spartans have an advantage on special teams, as Keyshawn Martin might be able to break a long return or two against a unit that gave up 261 return yards to Arizona State.

This is a hard game to call, but my gut says the Badgers will win a close one, probably by a late field goal. The Spartans will get big days from Baker and Bell, but the defense will be unable to stop Clay or create the pass rush necessary to rattle Tolzien.

Lazy Saturday: Purdue

Record

Week 3

Straight Up: 10-1; Against the Spread: 5-5

This Season

Straight Up: 28-4; Against the Spread: 10-13-1