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Late Night with Pac-10: Week 9 Preview

October 29, 2010  |  By Jeff Popelka

It may have taken a while, but the real test for Oregon has finally arrived.

While the Pac-10 is legitimately good this year, Oregon has yet to play a team that can compete with their athletes, not to mention their schemes.

USC — even this kinder, gentler version of the Trojans — can still compete with any team in the nation with respect to athleticism and depth.

What we don’t know is whether Lane Kiffin can get his team ready for this sort of matchup. Still, at home, with their offense, USC is bound to be dangerous. Will they win? Let’s find out in this week’s picks.

LNwtP-10 went 1-3 last week, bringing the season tally to 23-18 against the spread.

Saturday games:

California at Oregon State (-3) - When you factor out home field, this is a virtual pick ‘em. Are these teams really equally matched? Kevin Riley’s inconsistency has been frustrating for Cal, who seem to go as he goes. They can run the ball solidly, but in their losses, he’s averaged less than 55% passing and has thrown 6 picks. Ryan Katz knows how that goes, as he’s also pulled the Jekyll-and-Hyde routine, averaging under 50 percent completions in their losses. Given this variability, it seems that the play is to take OSU at home -3.

Arizona at UCLA (+9) - UCLA were destroyed last week at Oregon, and this week they get no let-up with the arrival of Arizona. UCLA still can’t throw the ball effectively (116th in the FBS), and the Arizona defense is stout (6th in scoring defense). If they can get even half the offensive production they got last week, the Wildcats will cover. Lay the 9.

Washington State at Arizona State (-21) - Wazzu has covered three straight games and ASU looked terrible last week (my single worst pick as ASU didn’t show up at all). Erickson may be on the hot seat, so ASU wins, but still can’t cover the 21. Ride WSU for another week with the 21.

Stanford at Washington (+7) - Stanford didn’t look outstanding last week against Wazzu, but no one in the conference looked more inept than Washington. Jake Locker looks much worse than he has the last couple of seasons, and the defense isn’t getting turnovers and is allowing more than 33 points per game. Luck shows off for NFL scouts against a soft defense, and Stanford covers the 7.

Oregon at USC (+6.5) - This may well be Oregon’s season. They get Arizona at home before heading to OSU for the Civil War, so on paper this looks to be their toughest road game of the season. You also have to expect that Monte Kiffin will have some interesting schematic twists in place to try and disrupt this potent Oregon offense. Both teams are great on the offensive side, so this should be a shootout. Consequently, I think that Oregon wins, but I’ll take the 6.5 as a hedge in a tight game.

Posted October 29, 2010 3:30 PM