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Big East Coast BiACC - ACC Preview, Week 11
November 11, 2010 | By Benjamin Miraski

The ACC is packed with conference games this week. They don’t need to embarrass themselves against the other major conferences any more this season.
The 12 teams have combined for a 27-15 record overall in non-conference games this season, which I am sure that the conference would trot out for you to show how strong they are when they step away from the league.
It is too bad the details get in their way.
Take away the 12-1 record against FCS schools to get to 15-14. Not quite as impressive.
Drop the three Sun Belt wins and the league drops to under .500.
And against the other five conferences with an automatic bid in the BCS, the ACC is just 3-9, with all three wins coming against that stronghold of fabulous football, the Big East.
That’s right. The only league more pathetic than the ACC are their friends to the North.
To make matters worse, this isn’t a new trend. During the last three seasons, the ACC owns a winning record during a season against just one other conference (other than the Big East). That came back in 2008 against the Big XII.
That makes home sweet conference home seem like a welcome break.
And with the parity of pathetic in the conference, a lot of small lines (and likely winning percentages) litter the board.
Let check out the games in week 11 of the ACC.
Miami at Georgia Tech (+3) - Miami may have lucked out last week that its schedule gave it Maryland, the biggest paper tiger in the ACC. The Terrapins built their 6-3 record on the backs of patsies. Helps to have that on your schedule when you are starting the fourth stringers. Georgia Tech has proven it is not the pushover that Maryland was. But it is a one-dimensional opponent, a group of runners that is going up against one of the few teams in the ACC with the speed to truly overpower them. Even the thinner depth chart can handle them. The MRI likes Miami at 58.17 percent. That should be enough to cover the three points.
Boston College at Duke (+3.5) - Duke and Boston College have a lot in common. Long middle-of-the-season losing streaks, two game winning streaks, and slim hopes of bowling this winter. But the Eagles do have the inside track on that last one. With four wins and an upcoming schedule of Duke and Virginia, the Eagles seem to be on the right track. But they will have to slow down Duke’s suddenly streaking offense. It should be as big an issue as it would seem. The MRI likes Boston College with 58.22 percent certainty. That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for their bowl resume, but it should help them cover the 3.5.
Wake Forest at North Carolina State (-18.5) - North Carolina State had a setback against Clemson, but is still in the running for the Atlantic division title. Lucky for it that Wake Forest is coming to town. Boasting one of the worst 10 defenses in the country, the Deacons could be roadkill for Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack by the end of the day Saturday. The MRI figures that North Carolina State only has a little more than six percent chance of screwing this one up. That seems a pretty confident prediction to lay the 18.5. (93.97%)
Virginia Tech at North Carolina (+3.5) - This was the Virginia Tech we thought we would see all season long. This is the Virginia Tech that pushed Boise State to the brink. This is the Virginia Tech that is not going to be scared of the North Carolina that could have been. While this was supposed to be a big game on the schedule, it has lost some of its luster. With a win, the Hokies clinch the Coastal division in the ACC and are one step closer to a BCS bowl (and possible rematch with Boise State?). But North Carolina can keep the race going with a win. It is too bad that North Carolina has trouble taking out even William and Mary. The MRI says Virginia Tech should win with 58.17 percent certainty. Let’s call them to cover on the road.
Maryland at Virginia (+1.5) - And here we have our paper tiger. 6-2 prior to last week’s loss, the best that the Terrapins could do in the MRI was 55th. Meanwhile, the top 25 was littered with 6-2 teams. With he loss, Maryland fell back to 59th in the rankings and is just asking for a letdown game against a lesser opponent. Hard to believe that Virginia could pull off the feat, but they did beat Miami and scored 48 on Swiss-cheese Duke. That leads me to believe there is some fight in the Cavaliers yet. The MRI likes Maryland at 58.17 percent, but I am going to say take Virginia, the scant few points they offer and the straight up upset.
Clemson at Florida State (-7.5) - Here is the thing about Clemson. Without Andre Ellington, this isn’t the same team. This is not the team that almost took out Auburn. This isn’t the same team that seemed to be able to score at will in the red zone. They lucked into a win last weekend, thanks to some strong defense. That same defense will be needed to slow down Florida State. While North Carolina and North Carolina State managed to take down the Seminoles, they did it with stronger offenses than Clemson can put together right now. That is why Florida State is favored by the MRI (and Vegas) with a 72.91 percent chance to win. But given the strength of the Clemson defense, take the 7.5 points and the Tigers.
The MRI/human combo was 3-3 last week, bringing the experiment to 7-8 overall.
Posted November 11, 2010 8:00 AM
