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Big East Coast BiACC - ACC Preview, Week 12

November 18, 2010  |  By Benjamin Miraski

Florida State Seminoles, ACC, college football, EJ Manuel follows the block of Rodney Hudson

Since the computer helps make the picks for this section of MRISports, it seems appropriate to talk about its performance record.

In its lifetime, the computer has picked 3,470 games in football (about a season’s worth of basketball games, which is why it takes so much finger power to generate the basketball MRI and not so much for football).

It has predicted 2,467 of those correctly for a 71.10 percent win rate. Not bad.

After all, the computer can not take into account injuries. It can’t take into account weather. It can’t take into account suspensions.

When teams are closely matched, the computer gets it right about 54 percent of the time. When teams are mismatched, the computer gets it right about 94 percent of the time. After all, there are upsets.

Everything else falls somewhere along that line.

So when Heather Dinich, ESPN’s ACC blogger, comes out to say that her record on picking ACC games this season is just 72.1 percent, I had to stop short.

After all, if I looked at all the games that the computer has picked for ACC teams, it probably has done just about that well.

Part of what fan site FanIQ.com used to do was track the experts in their picks. Fans took great joy in beating the experts, especially since we watched them each week act as if they hadn’t done anything wrong the week before.

At least the writers on this site apologize for our pitiful performances.

But 72.1 percent seems awfully low for someone whose job it is to analyze just one conference in football, know everything about it and just pick winners.

SEC blogger Chris Low is putting up a number over 80 percent.

I know I said a few weeks back that the ACC is unpredictable from week to week, but it isn’t my entire job to look at these teams and games. If it were, I would hope I could do better than 72 percent on just winners.

My computer can almost beat that across the entire country.

Among the major conferences, she is by far the worst at picking the games. Only the Non-AQ picker has a worse record and she has to pick ten games each week across a wide variety of leagues (But the computer would do better).

Shape up Dinich.

Off to the picks for this week.

Virginia at Boston College (-7) - Just like Boston College. Lose five in a row and then rattle off three straight wins. Duke and Wake Forest weren’t so surprising, but Clemson, that was the big shock. Virginia isn’t any better than Duke or Wake by the eye test and the computer agrees. Boston College has a 75.15 percent chance of winning this one and that seems to be good to cover the seven. Take the Eagles and fly.

North Carolina State at North Carolina (-2.5) - It is really feeling like the end of the line for North Carolina this season. They clinched bowl eligibility, so with their sad excuse for the team they were supposed to have, they have shut it down. There is no other excuse for their game against Virginia Tech. That wasn’t at all the team that was supposed to contend for the ACC crown, or even the shadow of itself that played at the beginning of the year. As a result, the computer likes North Carolina State (still in the running for the ACC championship game as amazing as that seems). It is only 58.25 percent, but getting 2.5 that seems like a good play. Take the Wolfpack.

Duke at Georgia Tech (-12) - Georgia Tech is hosting its last home game. They can clinch a bowl berth. Now, this might be as bad as the bowls get in the ACC — The Independence Bowl in Shreveport or the Military Bowl in Washington, but a bowl nonetheless. They drew Duke for their fun. Even the computer loves the Jackets. 77.78 percent means lay the 12 and wish the seniors a good time on their bowl trip.

Clemson at Wake Forest (+12.5) - Clemson didn’t get so lucky in its quest for a bowl game. It has to go on the road to Wake Forest. OK, so that isn’t so bad. But it is almost a do or die situation, as far as not getting bowl game swag can be a die situation. Clemson has to play South Carolina next week and even though the Gamecocks are already into the SEC championship game (a minor miracle in itself), the game against the Tigers will almost be used as a tune-up for when they face Auburn again. After all, South Carolina narrowly missed beating those Tigers the last time around. You don’t think they want to make sure they are doing everything possible for that one? So Clemson has to win this game. Has to. Like in the way that the computer is 73.99 percent sure that it will. The 12.5 points is another matter. After all, the Tigers have had trouble scoring the last few weeks. But this is Wake Forest, who couldn’t stop their grandmothers from strolling over the goal line in their wheelchairs. Bet Clemson and help elderly people across the street.

Virginia Tech at Miami (+2) - I am not exactly sure how Georgia Tech gave up 35 points to Miami last week. But they did. But Virginia Tech has a slightly better defense than the Jackets. Slightly as in ESPN is slightly full of itself. That slightly. So even though the Hokies are on the road, the computer thinks they will win 53.44 percent of the time in this one. With only two points in between them, I would say that makes Virginia Tech your pick.

Florida State at Maryland (+4.5) - We go through this dance every year with Florida State. We say they will be good. We think they will contend for something. Then they totally let us down by dropping a game or two that they shouldn’t. But by the end of the season, where are they? That’s right. Back at the top of the standings. Maybe the issue is that the media puts so much hype on their quarterbacks year after year. The offense in Tallahassee has changed. It may still have some explosive receivers and the ability to make a big pass play, but it has over the last 10 years moved to more of a running-oriented offense. So when the preseason Heisman watch lists come out and there is another Florida State quarterback listed, maybe we should stop paying attention. They seem to just let us down because of false expectations. There should be no false expectations this weekend. The Noles need a win to keep hopes alive for the ACC title game. And as we have said before, Maryland is one of the bigger frauds with its 7-3 record. But the Terps are at home which is why the computer only gives Florida State a 58.25 percent chance of winning the game. I say no problem and lay the 4.5 points too.

The computer/human combination went 5-1 last week. That makes the overall record for the experiment 12-9.

   

Posted November 18, 2010 10:30 AM

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