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Southern Exposure: SEC Preview, Week 10
November 5, 2010 | By Benjamin Miraski
Step, step, step. Each week another step to the inevitable showdown between Auburn and Alabama, the two teams that every week appear more and more to be the class of the SEC.
With the Eastern division locked together in a middle-of-the-pack kind of way, the West is where the stars are.
The last true test for Auburn comes next week, when Georgia will see if they can crack the code to outscore Cameron Newton.
Alabama still has two tough contests left, including this week, when they travel to LSU. The Tigers have been known to trip up a king or two in the SEC so why not again this season.
The defense is definitely there, but will they be able to score at all against Alabama?
Let’s break it down.
Florida at Vanderbilt (+14.5) - It is unclear if last week’s win for Florida was the result of them playing better or Georgia regressing back to their four-game-losing-streak form. Either way, Florida didn’t actually win itself any friends. Or did they? Just a week after the pollsters had been lambasted by many in the media for still voting for Florida, they did it again. This time, those old hats who vote in the Legends poll almost had them at No. 25. A win over a .500 Georgia gets you that? When last week it wasn’t even sane to put them on the ballot? This week the Gators get Vandy and this should be another reason for ill-informed voters to move them up the list. Even on the road, Florida is better than a two touchdown favorite and it is scary to think what the line might have been if this were the old Florida teams. The MRI likes Florida at 71.75 percent to win and I like them to cover the 14.5.
Alabama at LSU (+6.5) - This is the big test for Alabama. Can they stay at one loss and continue to hang around to move into the title game picture? Or will they join the two-loss crowd and assume the role of spoiler for the remainder of the year? LSU has the defense to hold the Tide down, but lacks the offense to score even against the shakiest of defenses. Bama’s defense is a little better than shaky. I expect a low scoring game and an Alabama win just based on the number of weapons the Tide has. The MRI likes Alabama at 58.39 percent to win and as the great LSU alum James Carville said (Hey, it’s election week; we have to have some political reference.), when a team is laying the 6.5, you lay the 6.5. Sorry that it is against you team James. Take Alabama and lay the 6.5.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Mississippi (-27.5) - This is about as close to the patsy parade as you can get without actually schedule someone from 1-AA (and three teams in the conference did this week). The Fighting Ackbars had an 81.54 percent chance of winning this one by the computer (and you know it would have been higher without that pesky 1-AA loss to begin the season). The line is huge, but Mississippi should be able to handle it. Lay 27.5.
Arkansas at South Carolina (-4) - South Carolina has to be wondering what happened last weekend. They were comfortably ahead and then things turned south quickly. They managed to pull away again to win, but it should have been easier than it was. The bad news for them is that this game doesn’t really matter. Unless Florida loses to Vandy (only 28 percent likely), next week’s game is the big one. The Gamecocks need to beat Florida to go to the SEC title game to have a chance at the Sugar Bowl. Given last week’s foibles and the look-ahead factor, this one is ripe for an upset. The MRI likes South Carolina to win, but only gives them a 54.09 percent chance at it. I like Arkansas to pull the upset. Take the Razorbacks and the points.
Tennessee at Memphis (+20) - When you look at the MRI rankings, you don’t see Memphis, but only barely. They are ranked 119 out of 120, which means they are a hair away from being listed in the dreadful worst team spot. Washington State fans know how much fun that is. So you would think this game would be a given, but even Tennessee is approaching the triple-digit rating zone. Despite the nearness in rank, the disparity in actual MRI score continues to be high. Tennessee is looking at a 73.65 percent chance of winning this one (Anyone think that under Fullmer, this would have been in the 94 percent zone?). Because Memphis is so inept, and the little spark of life we say last week against South Carolina, I am going with the Vols to cover the three touchdowns.
Patsy Party: Chattanooga at Auburn (Killing the SOS to jeopardize a BCS title chance), Idaho State at Georgia (Getting one win away from bowling), Charleston Southern at Kentucky (When does basketball start?)
Lazy Saturday: Mississippi State
Southern Exposure was 2-3 last week, which dropped it to .500 overall for the season at 30-30-1.
Posted November 5, 2010 8:00 AM