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MRI Football 2011 - Rankings Week 2

September 26, 2011  |  By Benjamin Miraski

By Texas taking a week off, they avoided the fate of conference mate Oklahoma this week. The Sooners had a scare game -- something that the Longhorns have already faced -- and managed to take a nice dip in the MRI rankings.

Texas saw no such drop, and actually watched their score go up by staying off the field.

That isn't to say that Texas was safe in the No. 1 spot.

Alabama, one of the best teams by the eye test, absolutely destroyed Arkansas in a game that many thought would be close.

The Crimson Tide shot up the rankings and took over the No. 2 spot, while approaching the coveted top spot in the rankings.

Big moves this early in the season are expected. It is a part of doing business in a league whose regular season is just 12 games long.

Once a quarter of the season has gone by for most teams, you almost need to put out the rankings. But it is still a small sample size overall, and some teams could be wildly misrated in one direction or another.

The result is a big jump or drop in the rankings, especially after a particularly good win, or a scary close one.

Here are a few teams that took a tumble this week:

• Wisconsin - Screwed themselves by playing an FCS team. It probably wouldn't have been an issue, except that the opening part of the schedule hadn't exactly been strong to this point. Plus, the results of their previous opponents this week also hurt them. UNLV lost to its FCS foe. Oregon State dropped a conference game in its quest to be the worst team in the PAC-12. And Northern Illinois struggled against its FCS opponent. So while Wisconsin romped against South Dakota -- and got help in is weighted MOV because the FCS now has 6 wins against the FBS -- the strength of the Badgers' overall schedule went way down (Now officially the easiest schedule in the league according to the MRI's numbers). This is why you are better off never playing an FCS opponent in this computer system.
• Oklahoma - One of the consensus contenders for the national title dropped out of the top 10 after struggling against Missouri. The Tigers are one of the teams fighting for their football lives in the Big XII, and need ever data point on their side to show they are still an important team to have on the schedule. So even if the conferences don't blow up after this season, a few big wins in the past couple of years would help immensely. With the stiff competition that broke Oklahoma's streak of 20 games without trailing at home, the Sooners' offensive numbers took a hit. They lost the rushing battle Saturday and turned the ball over twice without a takeaways. The passing numbers are still strong, but it is a lot harder to make a big move in the passing rating because of the high number of teams running a spread air attack offense.
• Illinois - The Illini are another team that took a hit offensively. They lost the passing game on Saturday, and the bump from almost 300 yards on the ground wasn't enough to counter a sub-200 yard performance in the air. Illinois also lost the turnover battle. That they came away with the win was also somewhat of a shock, and it won't help their weighted MOV when they posted just a 3-point win over what should be an eight or nine win Western Michigan squad. Also an issue for Illinois on Saturday was the defense that allowed over 300 yards, moving the Illini out of the truly elite category. It may have been just a matter of time before this happened to Illinois, but when you win, you don't expect to get knocked back like this.

Other teams took hits from their first loss. USC and Arkansas both dropped out of the top 25 after their defeats. The Razorbacks truly tumbled after a the previously discussed Alabama matchup.

Last week's surprise in the top 10, Ohio, also fell after losing to Rutgers. It was a game that based on the results so far this year, the Bobcats should have won. But losses on the field -- to both the personnel and the ball -- led to big gains from the Scarlet Knights.

Ohio still managed to hang in the top 25 overall, along with the MAC's Temple which may mark a high point for the conference in the history of the MRI. That is how well the Bobcats had played so far this season. Now it is just a matter of which of the two MAC teams can stay in this, as both are in the Eastern division.

And for those looking for the upset, outsider teams, South Florida -- yes, we are considering a Big East team an outsider -- is still hanging at No. 3 in the rankings after dismantling UTEP. And Boise State jumped up to No. 12 after shutting down a high powered Tulsa squad.

But outside of the two MAC teams, which won't be contenders, and the Boise State team which will be, there are no real outsiders challenging for the title this season in the MRI. There is still time for someone to make a big move, but it is unlikely that anyone could put up the types of numbers that would be required to fly up to the top 10 in the rankings at this point, let alone the top two spots.

Even Boise State might have a hard time cracking the top five given that the teams running at that high of a level right now have a good lead on the Broncos.

Unlike in years past when Boise started highly ranked, they are now climbing uphill, and don't really have the kinds of opponents would would provide the boost remaining on the schedule.

And so this could be the first season in a while where no non-AQ team challenges for the top spot in the rankings. That is a sad development in college football overall, because it actually sets the cause back for a playoff.

If there are no teams routinely challenging for the title, that will lessen the noise about including anyone outside of the big conferences. And that will lead to more of the nonsense that took place over the last couple of weeks, and the superconferences could prevail.

On that happy note, check out all the rankings in week 2 of the MRI football rankings.

Posted September 26, 2011 2:00 PM

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