« College Basketball Rankings - MRI 2011-12, Week 16 - Pre-Tournament Final | Main

College Basketball Rankings - MRI 2011-12, Week 17 - Tournament Final

April 5, 2012  |  By Benjamin Miraski

There will be no computer controversy this season; Kentucky is your MRI Tournament champion.

Prior to the tip of the NCAA Tournament, North Carolina had snuck into the lead of a race between the Tar Heels, Kentucky and Ohio State.

But an injury to Kendall Marshall derailed the boys is Carolina blue, leaving Ohio State and Kentucky to battle it out.

Ohio State faltered down the stretch against the Jayhawks which kept the country from seeing a 1-2 matchup for the title game. It would have been close to a toss-up for the title had that occurred.

As it was, Kentucky entered that final game as a prohibitive favorite, with a chance to win over 70 percent of the time.

Unlike the Buckeyes, the Wildcats worked within the percentages and took home the title, thanks to probably the most impactful player this season, Anthony Davis.

Davis didn't score much, but it was his all-around play that helped Kentucky. Those things are better captured in HOOPWAR, so it will have to wait for another post.

As for Kentucky, they finished atop the computer also, with a score of 240.82, a full nine points ahead of Ohio State. The Wildcats would be favored in every matchup against every team in the country with that mark. That is domination.

The computer showed some domination too. Despite an injury derailing its title pick and a run to another pool title, the MRI predicted 42 of 63 games prior to the start of the Round of 64. The best mark in one pool it entered was 45, and that person had Kentucky winning it all.

The winner in its most competitive pool on ESPN only picked 40 games correctly, showing that scoring in a pool can matter a great deal to the finish. (If you ask me, getting more games correct, even though your final pick is wrong should be worth more points. Probably a scoring algorithm that makes that happen somewhere).

Going round to round, the computer was correct in 48 of the tournament's 67 game, for a 71.64 percent mark. If you leave out the PIGs, the computer did a tad better -- it really did not do well on that Tuesday and Wednesday -- hitting 47 of the 63 games, for a 74.60 percent mark.

For the season, once predictions began after Thanksgiving, the computer got 72.60 percent of all games correct. It is now correct on 71.64 percent of games all-time, a mark based on predictions of 28,529 games.

Check out all the rankings in the Tournament Final of the 2011-12 Basketball MRI.

MRI Top 25 Rankings

RankTeamRecordMRILW
1Kentucky38-2240.823
2Ohio State31-8231.852
3North Carolina32-6224.101
4Michigan State28-8189.854
5Syracuse34-3184.935
6Kansas32-7175.488
7Florida26-11163.4314
8Memphis26-9162.686
9Wichita State26-6160.457
10New Mexico27-7158.019
11Missouri29-5152.1710
12Indiana27-9150.3611
13Marquette27-8147.0918
14Wisconsin26-10146.4015
15Saint Louis25-8145.2212
16Baylor29-8144.7119
17Gonzaga26-7142.1217
18Louisville30-10137.54NR(29)
19Georgetown23-9136.1420
20Duke27-7136.0714
21St. Mary's25-6134.9316
22Vanderbilt25-11131.7924
23Murray State28-2129.73NR(28)
24New Mexico State24-10129.0921
25Florida State25-10129.0022

Teams Dropped From The Top 25: Cal (LW #23, TW #27), Creighton (LW #25, TW #28).
On the Bubble: Stanford, Cal, Creighton, UNLV, BYU, Drexel, Virginia Commonwealth, Belmont, Iona, Kansas State.
Wofford Watch: Wofford (17-14) finished 169th in the MRI, with a score of 29.13.
Most Average Team: Texas A&M (13-18), with a score of 31.56.
Last Place this week: Grambling (4-24) at -132.38. 17th week in a row, completing the season sweep.
Biggest Gain this week: Stanford gained 31.64 points. (Won NIT.)
Biggest Loss this week: Tennessee Tech lost 7.51 points. (Lost to Georgia State in the CIT, 74-43.)
Conference rankings this week: Big Ten, SEC, Big East, Big 12, ACC, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, PAC-12, Conference USA, Missouri Valley.
   

Posted April 5, 2012 1:58 PM

blog comments powered by Disqus