April 7, 2009

MRI 2008 - Tournament Final

North Carolina dominated the NCAA tournament, something that the MRI thought might happen...except for that conference tournament week.

You see, the Tar Heels stumbled during the ACC tournament, allowing Memphis to squeak by them during the final week of the season. That led the MRI to pick the Tigers as the tournament champions.

But things changed quickly. As soon as North Carolina starting stomping opponents, the Tar Heels were slipping back into the lead.

By the time the Sweet Sixteen rolled around, North Carolina was sniffing the No. 1 spot, and Missouri assisted the matter by taking out Memphis in dramatic fashion.

The Tar Heels rolled through the rest of the tournament, extending the lead and trouncing the rest of the field, something that the MRI had thought might happen... well, last year. But this year, they did it right.

Included in the rankings this time around are the winners of the other three tournaments: Penn State, Old Dominion and Oregon State.

Yes, Oregon State, who ended with a losing record against Division I teams took home a tournament title. If I thought that the Penn State NIT title was unlikely, I can't even begin to explain how the Beavers pulled this one off.

Oregon State finished as the No. 192 team in the country, and that is after the tournament win.

Talk about unlikely. But then again, it was the CBI, a tournament that it seemed had trouble filling its field because of the monetary requirement it attached to a home game (Apparently Oregon State didn't have a problem paying.)

But that is a matter for another day. Until then, check out the tournament final rankings of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Tournament Final"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:26 AM | Comments (0)

April 6, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Finals Edition

For as poorly as the MRI did at predicting the NIT, it did amazingly well at predicting the NCAA tournament so far.

With one game to go (that the computer cannot win), the MRI was at the 73rd percentile at ESPN, having been helped by a number of upsets along the way. The computer needed the help because it landed just one of its Final Four teams predicted prior to the tournament beginning.

Its solid standing is better than a number of the personalities who get paid the big bucks to spout on about sports on a daily basis at ESPN. The computer is ahead of everyone at PTI, a solid three-quarters of Around the Horn, and is hanging in there against the Editorial staff.

Not bad.

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Finals Edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:49 PM | Comments (0)

April 3, 2009

Penn State: The Improbable NIT winner

Penn State finished off Baylor last night 69-65 to take the NIT title. While some may mock the winner of this secondary tournament -- calling then No. 66 even though this title brings with it more prestige than dropping a first round NCAA game in an upset -- the NIT has been a stepping stone for many teams moving into the next season.

I wrote about this at Examiner, but here is a list of the teams that have turned recent NIT success into NCAA tournament glory the next season:

Ohio State turned last year’s championship into a No. 8 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament.

West Virginia, the 2007 champion, reached the Sweet Sixteen in 2008. The runner-up, Clemson, was No. 5 seed but ran into a hot Villanova team.

Two-time defending champ South Carolina started the 2007 season 10-3 before getting rolled by a hot SEC conference that ultimately produced NCAA champ Florida.

Ok, so Ohio State's tournament run didn't end with fireworks and parades, but they made the field. That should give Penn State a lot of hope going into next year, even with the loss of Jamelle Cornley.

Continue reading "Penn State: The Improbable NIT winner"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:11 PM | Comments (0)

March 25, 2009

Northwestern Wildcats Examiner: Could Curry become a Wildcat?

Liberty’s season ended Monday, an 88-65 loss to the James Madison Dukes in the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament.

The future of the basketball program ended Tuesday.

Seth Curry, the high-scoring, little brother of Davidson’s Stephen Curry announced his decision to transfer in order to face tougher competition during his college career.

Frankly, the fact that Liberty had this kid for a year is a shock in itself.

Everyone watched the elder Curry light up the league in his freshman season, averaging almost 22 points per game. Then he turned it on for his sophomore campaign, almost leading the Wildcats to the Final Four.

At that point, coaches across the country should have been scrambling to recruit Seth. Even if he were a bust, given the play of his brother, it would have been worth the risk.

It is almost like watching Archie Manning play in the NFL and Peyton tear up the SEC, and then not recruiting Eli.

The family has the genes.

So Liberty got its season of glory, even if that glory ended in the fourth best tournament in the country.
Now where does Seth go?

Read the rest of this story here.

The MRI Rankings are copyright 2009 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski is a freelance reporter, edits and writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. He also is the Northwestern Wildcats Examiner for Examiner.com. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:15 AM | Comments (0)

March 24, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: NIT Edition

Everyone has been down on the SEC this season, and for good reason. A bunch of mediocre teams, who failed to win even small games during the non-conference season, doesn't make for exciting basketball.

When you add in that the "normal" names failed to impress, no one was watching.

And no one is watching the SEC anymore, at least in the NCAA tournament. As the second weekend gets set to begin, all three teams from the South have already packed their gear away for the off-season.

But those fans might want to flip the channel from CBS to ESPN. The league that everyone though was way down has actually impressed in that other tournament, the NIT.

Of the eight teams remaining, three are from the SEC, and all three should be favored in their games to get to Madison Square Garden.

Imagine that. We aren't talking about three teams from the supposedly very deep Big East -- it could have happened. We aren't talking about Big XII. And we aren't talking about the little guys breaking through, although at least one of the Final Four spots will be taken by a team with a little chip on its shoulder.

Nope, this is the SEC that is running through what has actually been the more competitive tournament when you look at how fairly matched the teams have been.

As always, let's see what the computer says about who should be headed to MSG on March 31.

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: NIT Edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:03 AM | Comments (0)

March 23, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Second chances

Inevitably, the question around the office this morning is “How’s your bracket?”

Most people at this point are probably feeling good. That’s because once again, chalk has dominated the competition.

And there is no surprise in that. The computer was confident that there were four teams better than all the rest. All four of those are still alive and the only team that is starting to look like they could challenge them is Connecticut.

But then again, most of that is thanks to their record-setting victory over what was the worst MRI-rated team in the tournament, Chattanooga.

If you are keeping track of your bracket at ESPN, a ten-point difference at this point is worth over 400,000 spots in the standings, which makes the computer situation a little tenuous at this point.

You see, the computer has 500 points over at ESPN. After 24 correct first-round picks, the computer swept through the second round, getting all but one game correct that it could. That leaves the computer with 13 of its original Sweet Sixteen picks.

The MRI can still win seven of eight games on Thursday and Friday and three of its Final Four are still alive.

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Second chances"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)

March 21, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: 2nd Round

Sure your bracket is busted. I know the MRI's bracket is. The MRI had West Virginia running to the Final Four.

That didn't work out so well.

If it had happened, along the way, the Mountaineers would have needed to win two 50-50 games against Kansas and Louisville. That is tough no matter who you are.

But it couldn't even win its first game, and that is going to make it very interesting as the tournament goes forward. That's because the MRI is usually right in it until the end. The breaking point of the pre-tournament picks doesn't usually come until later in the rounds.

Then again, maybe it was to be expected. The MRI got 24 of 32 games correct in the first round. It was only expecting to correctly pick 25 of the 32 (add up the percentage and you get the expected win numbers for those statistically challenged).

Not too shabby.

That has the computer in the 77.7 percentile on ESPN's Bracket Challenge. So even with the upsets, the computer is beating two-thirds of the country.

We'll see how that goes the rest of the way missing a key piece of the puzzle. I can't imagine it will go well.

So on to the second round, for those of you who are maybe placing friendly wagers. I know that many people also have second-chance Sweet Sixteen brackets, so don't fear, we will give you a sneak peek at who you should be expecting to be in that.

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: 2nd Round"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:10 AM | Comments (0)

March 17, 2009

Projecting The Tournament: Official Bracket Edition

Enough messing around with half-cocked predictions based on Joe Lunardi. Come on, the guy only got 64 of the 65 teams correct this year. How can you actually trust someone who isn't right 100 percent of the time?

Of course, I kid.

But the MRI does not kid. It gives it to you straight, albeit with some nice percentages attached to cover its silicon behind.

So what are the chances of your precious school making it all the way through to compete in Detroit (by the way, maybe the NCAA should look more closely at its scheduling. Is Detroit really a "destination location" for anything these days? Even the auto show might be in danger.)?

Well, the MRI can't exactly give you that... at least not yet. That is an off-season Excel programming exercise. But for right now, we can tell you what the computer picks for every game in the NCAA tournament. (NIT picks for the first round are here.)

How is that for a compromise?

Let's go to the brackets. Each team will be listed in the round it goes out (up to the Final Four) with the chance of them LOSING the game. It is simple math to get the chance of them winning.

After each round, we will post updated editions with the chances for the rest of the tournament.

Continue reading "Projecting The Tournament: Official Bracket Edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:26 PM | Comments (0)

March 16, 2009

MRI 2008 - Regular Season Final

Woah, look out America.

Memphis has returned to the top of the MRI rankings just in time for the NCAA tournament. Talk about timing!

If you wanted to look for consistency, you wouldn't have to look much further than the Tigers. Although they were not among the best teams in the country for most of the year, they made the charge and benefited from the tumbles of others.

25 wins in a row? Yeah, that's the ticket.

North Carolina's ACC tournament loss cost them the regular season title in the MRI. One more game in the win column, one more game, one more potential big victory all went away with the loss to Florida State.

Pittsburgh tripped up its own chances in the same way, with even greater consequences as there were many more games left in the Big East battle when they bowed out.

And Duke did everything they could but had too much ground to make up.

So congrats to Memphis on winning the regular season crown. Now, can they do it in the post-season where they stumbled over the past few years despite great MRI numbers?

That remains to be seen.

Coming tomorrow, a full tournament projection from the computer. The MRI was shocked at the number of teams ranked 26-45 that did not make the NCAA field. We are talking 10 teams!

That means there is a lot of questionable quality competing come Thursday and Friday. We will let you know who is ripe for an upset tomorrow.

Until then, check out the final regular season rankings of the MRI:

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Regular Season Final"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:58 PM | Comments (0)

March 2, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: March 2 Edition

Ok, so earlier today, I said that Oklahoma wouldn't make the Final Four. But a lot depends on the seeding...

And it appears that Joe Lunardi decided to prove me wrong and seed Oklahoma as the best team in the South. No team that the computer has better than Oklahoma is in that region, which is a shock since so many teams from the Big East are up there.

So Oklahoma proves me wrong and wins the South to get to the Final Four.

Thanks Joe.

I think the most interesting part of today's outcomes is the fate of all those bubble teams.

Choose any of them that you think is close to making the tournament.

Then look for that team in the "One and Done" category; I almost guarantee it is there.

It just goes to show you that no matter how much arguing and complaining you do, most of those teams on the bubble don't belong in the tournament in the first place.

Of course because I wrote that we will have a "George Mason"-like run this season now.

Enjoy the brackets

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: March 2 Edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:54 PM | Comments (0)

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 13

With just two weeks to go before the tournament, it appears thing have gotten quite interesting in the MRI.

Pittsburgh stumbled against Providence to knock it back down from challenging North Carolina, who became the first team this season to break the 200-point mark. Pittsburgh is now back within striking distance of other challengers Memphis, Duke and Connecticut, making the run to the Final Four very dependent on how the final bracket pairings turn out.

After those five and potentially Kansas, the rest of the league drops off quickly. So at this point, do we have a six-team race for the title?

I think so. While we can see teams like Oklahoma, Michigan State and dark horse West Virginia going to the Elite Eight, I think the Final Four will only come from the top six teams in the MRI.

Of course, in two weeks, things could be a lot different, but right now, I can't see it any other way.

You might say that Oklahoma with Blake Griffin back is a real challenge. But without Griffin, Oklahoma has looked pedestrian and against the better teams, easily beatable. Shut down Griffin, win the game -- it seems a simple formula.

And past them, I can't see another team that can really challenge. Maybe Marquette before the loss of Dominic James. Maybe Louisville if they didn't have the tendency to implode. Maybe someone from the Pac-10 if I didn't doubt that the strength of the league beyond the first three.

Basically, there is no one.

And even the contenders have their issues so the race is anywhere but finished. But this is a big change from just a few weeks ago when any of the top ten could have made a run for the title.

If you go straight by the MRI, the cut-off for an at-large bid (at least a more likely chance at one) would have been at No. 50.

The computer predicted 69.00 percent of the games this week putting it at 70.56 percent of the games on the season. All-time the computer is 71.51 percent correct.

Check out all the rankings in week 13 of the MRI:

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 13"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:09 PM | Comments (0)

February 23, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 12

North Carolina is getting a reprieve this week. The team may have lost a tough one against Maryland, but they also benefitted from the fact that all of their main competitors lost except one.

Pittsburgh narrowed the gap to less than a single MRI point this week. That means any more bobbles and the Panthers will return to the top spot.

Pitt has been under the radar as everyone has talked about Connecticut and the Tar Heels, but maybe the time for that is over. The Panthers have what it takes to make the long run this year and a lot of that credit has to go to Jamie Dixon who has continued with Ben Howland started (and has kept doing at UCLA) and made it even better.

I am previously on record for saying that the new, bigger Big East is too tough to actually generate a Final Four candidate that has enough gas to win it.

I might be eating my shoe this season. I can honestly see Pittsburgh making the deep run and winning the whole thing. As we saw this weekend, North Carolina has trouble with defense. Duke has trouble with defense. And Connecticut, despite one of the most confounding foul calls contributing, still couldn't stop Pitt.

This is the team we have been waiting for out of the Western half of Pennsylvania for quite a while.

They just didn't quite make it over the hump in the MRI this week.

One more note. In my radio show on Sunday I talked about how I could not believe that the Big Ten had eight teams in the bracket in Joe Lunardi's latest tournament projection. Things are getting back to normal. They are down to seven today, which is still more than I can fathom, but as I have been reminded, the bubble is quite soft this season.

Maybe the MRI is crazy, but it can't see more than five even with the soft bubble, but I think there is a lot of fluidity near the cut-off and this could come down to the Saturday before Selection Sunday before we see all the disputes settled.

A tough week for the MRI. The computer predicted 65.64 percent of the games correctly this week. For the season, the computer has predicted 70.70 percent of the games correctly.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 12"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:27 PM | Comments (0)

February 17, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 17 edition

If Duke's recent failures haven't harmed them in the MRI (yet), they certainly are starting to feel sting in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology (Through games of Sunday, Feb. 15).

The Blue Devils have fallen to a No. 3 seed. And if that wasn't bad enough, they are in the East region with two other top 5 MRI teams: Connecticut and Memphis.

As a result, Duke goes from being a team playing in the finals last Friday, to a team that is eliminated in their Sweet Sixteen game. That is quite a ways to fall, and it doesn't help that they continue to slip in the MRI rankings.

There is only one 12-5 upset this projection, an Arizona win over Ohio State.

The Buckeye loss doesn't bode well for the Big Ten. Even with six teams in the tournament, only one, Michigan State, manages to make it to the second weekend of the tournament.

But you can check it all out in the latest bracket prognostication.

On to the brackets:

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 17 edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:00 AM | Comments (0)

February 16, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 11

With Duke reeling, how could they possibly still be in the top four spots in the MRI? That would mean a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament as seeded by the computer rankings.

The Blue Devils have lost three of four and needed a monumental comeback and overtime to defeat Miami.

But while it seems that Duke should be shooting the way of North Carolina Central, they have had some help to stay near the top.

First there is Connecticut who seems to have the uncanny ability not to lose. But the loss of Jerome Dyson has held back the Huskies. Instead of having crushing wins to add to their resume, they end up squeaking by a team like Seton Hall.

Eight points doesn't really scream danger, but Seton Hall isn't really the type of team that should be able to hang even that close with the Big East leader.

(On a side note, what is going on with the massive blowout victories in the Big East lately? How can one conference have so many close teams separated by more than 20 points when they actually play?)

And then there is Oklahoma. The Sooners may be making waves in the Big XII, but it is the Big XII.

After Kansas and Missouri, who do you really count as a great team?

Texas? Hardly. The Longhorns have found too many ways to lose games they should win (But they still moved back into the MRI top 25, which just shows how close all the bubble teams are.)

And then who do you even nominate?

But the Blue Devils' luck might be running out. Connecticut gets Pittsburgh (a very important game for both teams as if Pitt wins, they continue to challenge UNC for the top MRI spot), and South Florida this week. That is prime fodder for a huge bump in the numbers.

But until those games are played, Duke can still say they belong in the top spots, at least according to the computer.

And that computer had a good week, predicting 72.54 percent of the games this week. For the year, the computer has gotten 71.23 percent of the games correct and 71.63 percent of the games all time.

Check out all the ratings in week 11 of the MRI:

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 11"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:52 PM | Comments (0)

February 13, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 13 edition

Joe Lunardi's latest projection is up which means another MRI projection.

As with Lunardi's bracket, the MRI numbers used for the projections includes all games through 2/12/2009.

To the Bracket:

One and Done:
Midwest: Morgan State, South Carolina, Washington, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Vermont, Arizona State, Jacksonville
West: Alabama State, Princeton, Virginia Tech, Purdue, North Dakota State, UNLV, Weber State, Florida State, Cal State Northridge
South: Morehead State, Miami, Boston College, Western Kentucky, Butler, Robert Morris, Kentucky, VMI
East: Holy Cross, Dayton, Ohio State, Buffalo, Arizona, Northeastern, Minnesota, Texas A&M Corpus Christi

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 13 edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:38 PM | Comments (0)

February 10, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 10 edition

Joe Lunardi has gone to twice-weekly predictions so we are going to step up our predictions of the tournament winners also. It is a little scary how close the MRI is to predicting the same teams into the tournament as Lunardi this season.

Either the MRI is improving in its ratings of teams, the league is just that balanced that almost anything can be correct, or Lunardi has gone off his rocker.

Whatever reason you choose, it is always a fun prediction.

Let's go to the brackets (Using Lunardi's Monday, Feb. 9 bracket and the MRI through games of Feb. 8):

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 10 edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 6:37 PM | Comments (0)

February 9, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 10

Say good bye Duke. Your run at the top has ended.

Almost appropriately, the team that was able to knock them down was Clemson. There is no team that has taken its lumps more in the MRI rankings than the Tigers, so I guess there is some "payback" factor involved here.

The Blue Devils didn't drop far. They only slipped to No. 2 thanks to their performance before everything fell apart against Clemson. Heck, they almost lost twice this week, and I don't believe that people would have been as forgiving to the Devils had they lost to Miami (Great comeback there. Coach K apparently has some way to inspire his team).

Taking over the top spot is North Carolina which sets up a great game on Wednesday between the top two teams.

The question really remains as to whether anyone can catch the set of teams at the top. It may take until the conference tournaments before it happens, or a really bad fall. I just am not sure that anyone can take over from these three.

That evens includes Connecticut, who seems to be playing better than anyone (although a close game with Michigan of all teams doesn't inspire anyone to greatness).

The MRI was correct 66.46 percent of the time this week, making it 71.07 percent correct on the season. All-time the computer has correctly predicted 71.62 percent of the games.

Check out all the rankings in week 10 of the MRI:

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 10"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

February 5, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 5 edition

Well, this feels a little strange, considering how badly the projected championship team lost last night.

Duke picked such a great night to have only the second-worst lost ever under Coach K. The only loss that was worse was one to a talent-heavy UNLV team in the finals of the NCAA tournament.

That loss could be forgiven, but a loss to a fellow ACC team like this? No, that one can't be forgiven which is why Coach K said that the team better not forget this loss.

So it is with a sense of irony that I post this week's tournament projections, which still have the Blue Devils capturing the title in Joe Lunardi's latest bracket.

On to the projections.

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 5 edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:02 PM | Comments (0)

February 2, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 9

Apparently no one wants to be No. 1 this season. Duke climbs to the top of the polls, only to fall to Wake Forest, the team they replaced.

Pittsburgh has a chance to take back the top spot, but they trip up against Villanova.

This isn't necessarily something for these teams to worry about. They are still among the best 10 teams in the country. But they are coming back to the pack.

Just look at the latest MRI numbers.

Duke, North Carolina and Pittsburgh were the top three teams last week, with room to spare should any slip-ups occur.

But a 27-point gap has now almost half of what it once was. Connecticut, Memphis and the rest of the country are moving in on the three leaders.

But despite the closing field, there is still room for major upsets.

Until this week, the largest upset ever featured Clemson, at the time the No. 1 team in the MRI a few years ago. The Tigers lost a home game to Elon, effectively starting the destruction of Clemson's season that year.

The downward spiral that the Tigers experienced after that has been come to be known as the Clemson effect here at MRI Sports.

Yet that isn't the upset that occurred this year. This 1-in-100 shot victory came from teams far down the MRI's rankings.

Alcorn State, currently No. 342 -- next to last -- in the MRI, scored a major upset by beating No. 211 Alabama State 79-74 on the road. The chance of the victory according to the data compiled by MRI was only 1 percent given the futility of Alcorn State this season.

So now Clemson can share the biggest upset title with Alabama State, two teams that couldn't be more different in terms of make up and skill.

But they have one thing in common -- the ability to trip up in a game that should be absolutely no problem.

The MRI correctly predicted 73.40 percent of the games this week, despite the major upset. For the season, the MRI has predicted 71.65 percent of the games.

All-time, the computer has been 71.69 percent correct.

Check out all the rankings in week 9 of the MRI (through games of 2/1/09):

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 9"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:54 PM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: Jan. 28 edition

It is time to look at the NCAA tournament again, as projected by Joe Lunardi.

For those that might think I am making fun of the Bracket-master by doing this, that is not true, even when I have a 5- or 6-seed going to the Final Four. It is not like it has never happened.

More true is that I am looking at where the teams are seeded versus where they measure up in the computer rankings. It is a way at looking at how disparate two views of the same data can be.

For example, did I really think that West Virginia was a Final Four team last week? Well, why not? They are a great team. So what if they were seeded low. Bob Huggins has gotten more out of less more than any other coach that I know of. Maybe this was going to be the breakthrough year for Huggy-bear.

I believe this could give a lot of fans some insight into what will happen come March given what has already transpired.

And now to the Brackets:

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Jan. 28 edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:07 AM | Comments (0)

Northwestern Examiner: Men look to exorcise demons against Indiana

The men's basketball team takes on Indiana tonight in Evanston, ... assuming that Tom Crean and company are able to get through the snow and to the stadium.

Northwestern is looking to exact some revenge on Indiana after the Hoosiers have beaten them in five straight games. It isn't the same players on Indiana now as then, but a win like this could go a long way to having Northwestern pointed in the right direction again.

Read the preview and then look for a game review later as MRISports and your Northwestern Examiner will be on the sidelines from press row for this one.

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:41 AM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 8

I have been a fan of Jim Boeheim and the Syracuse Orange(men) for a while. He wins the right way. He slaves away in Syracuse, N.Y., which has to affect how he can recruit.

Because honestly, if you were a high school basketball player, wouldn't you rather be playing in the ACC, where most of the time, the weather stays above freezing during your season?

Which is why it makes it that much more difficult to say what I am going to say.

Perhaps it is time that Boeheim retires.

I know, it seems a little premature. After all, Syracuse is 16-4 this season against Division I opponents. Many teams would love to have a record that great at this point in the year. They are 5-3 in the Big East and in the thick of a very close race. And they are likely headed to another NCAA tournament berth.

But the new larger Big East seems to be taking its toll on the Orange coach.

Since the league expanded, his teams have struggled to stay in the upper echelons of the standings. The league has gotten tougher, becoming the powerhouse that it was supposed to be with expansion.

But that has come with a cost: The decline of two of its most storied programs, Syracuse and Georgetown.

I still think Boeheim can do the job. He still recruits well. He still coaches with all the energy he always has.

But unlike some of his good friends (read: Coach K), he seems to have lost the magic to get that tag team of recruits to win consistently, which leads me to wonder if the Big East has passed Boeheim by.

It would be a shame to see him go. He is after all one of the greatest.

But I look at his team this season and I wonder. I never felt they were one of the top ten teams in the nation. Yet, there they were, ranked No. 8 prior to losing two straight games.

Now they are falling back to more of a norm for the team.

The MRI believes that Syracuse is good, but a borderline top 25 team at best. Jeff Sagarin's ratings agree.

So why do the eyes of the writers seem to be deceiving them?

Perhaps it is the man at the end of the bench, that none of us can seem to turn our backs on. Perhaps he is personally buoying the team to the top.

I hope for his sake that he can turn things around. He is too good of a coach to start looking like a choke artist every Big East season.

But for now, I can watch and wonder if maybe it would be better if he left before things turn ugly.

The MRI correctly predicted 66.46 percent of the games this week. For the season, the computer has predicted 71.40 percent of the games correctly, and all-time it has been correct 71.67 percent of the time.

Check out all the rankings in week eight of the MRI (games through 1/25/09):

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 8"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:12 PM | Comments (0)

January 23, 2009

Projecting the Tournament: New methodology, new ways to rip the MRI

In an attempt to please the insightful commenters who just love my tournament projections (read: repeatedly flame me left and right), I will be changing the format this year.

Since last year led to a slight ... let's say hiatus, for the projections, look at this as a way to make a fresh start for the MRI.

How will it work this year? Welcome to the Bracketology edition of the MRI tournament projections.

Each week, we will use Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology and project out the tournament based on the current MRI ratings.

Right now, we will likely see many of the games be straight-up chalk, but as the season wears on, I expect us to see more and more upsets come into play.

From the MRI's perspective, this is the best possible circumstance: It can't be wrong!

So each week, get ready to read who is one and done, and who are the favorite for the Final Four.

And if I get enough response, perhaps I will bring back the full scale tournament projections. It definitely drove traffic.

So now, to the brackets, using Lunardi's 1/19/09 bracket:

Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: New methodology, new ways to rip the MRI"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:49 PM | Comments (0)

Northwestern Examiner: Will Michigan mean three in a row?

The Northwestern men's basketball team is currently riding high on a two-game winning streak. They now travel to Ann Arbor, Mich., to take on a Michigan team that is reeling from three straight losses. How can Northwestern extend both streaks? Here are three winning strategies for the Wildcats at Examiner.com

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:52 PM | Comments (0)

January 21, 2009

Northwestern Examiner: Men score upset against Michigan State

The Northwestern men's basketball team scored a major upset against Michigan State.

I recap the game at Examiner.com.

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:28 PM | Comments (0)

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 7

Has North Carolina turned it around?

It certainly appears that way, and it is a main reason why the Tar Heels are back leading the MRI rankings this week.

It also helps that Pittsburgh was eliminated from the undefeated list by a loss to Louisville. That knocked the Panthers down to No. 3 in the rankings.

So while Pittsburgh went temporarily cold, North Carolina turned bright hot. They shook off two conference-opening losses and soundly beat up on Virginia and Miami.

Give a lot of credit to Tyler Hansbrough who contributed 28 and 24 in the two wins.

Despite the wins, North Carolina is two games back in the ACC. They are trailing the MRI's No. 2 team, Duke, who continues to defy the odds and win despite no legitimate big man.

We will see if facing off against Maryland will change that this coming weekend.

Rounding out the top five are Connecticut and Memphis, but they are closer to the the rest of the pack than they are to the computer's leaders.

The MRI had a tough week, falling victim to a number of upsets. It finished 68.01 percent correct. All-time, the computer has correctly predicted 71.75 percent of the games.

Check out all the rankings in week seven of the MRI (ratings through 1/18/09):

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 7"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 6:30 PM | Comments (0)

Northwestern Examiner: Men hope 13 unlucky for Spartans

In my new role as Northwestern Examiner for Examiner.com, the Chicago Edition, I preview tonight's game for the Northwestern men against the Michigan State Spartans.

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:43 AM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 6

Just when it looked like we might be turning a corner and having the North Carolina Tar Heels return to the top spot in the rankings, along comes Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons took out the team that was leading the rankings this week, dropping Carolina back to the No. 2 spot.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh continues to lead the pack after remaining unscathed in Big East play.

After that, the pack remains jumbled with most of the top 40 teams closely matched.

How else can you explain some of the losses taking place this week?

How does Arkansas knock off both Oklahoma and Texas and yet lose to Mississippi State? There is no reason. These things do happen once conference season begins.

And that is just what Pittsburgh might face over the next seven days. Skipping past a game against South Florida, the Panthers face MRI-ranked Louisville and Syracuse. Not exactly cream-puff city any longer.

All of which means we could be looking at a new leader come next week. Could it be Duke who has continued to survive at the top despite no true central presence?

Or can North Carolina rebound from an 0-2 start in the ACC?

Or is it once of the other teams who are lurking a bit in back of the three leaders?

The MRI correctly predicted 72.95 percent of the games this week. All-time the computer has correctly determined 71.81 percent of all games.

Check out all the ratings in week six of the MRI:

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 6"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:55 PM | Comments (0)

January 8, 2009

About Last Night: Disappointment Edition

Last night turned into a mega-disappointment for teams that needed a big statement game.

First, there was Indiana, who has just floundered (for good reason, but that is another topic) for most of the season so far. They pushed a nearly ranked Michigan team to overtime in Bloomington.

It was a chance to have a statement win, something to build on for the rest of the season. But talent has a way of winning out, and Michigan was able to overcome what was the best effort of the season by Indiana.

Don't be surprised though if Indiana is able to steal one or two Big Ten games at home this season, if they are going to give that effort.

Indiana is a team you can forgive. They are lacking their usual allotment of great basketball talent.

But there were other teams last night that aren't lacking the talent, but maybe the heart and drive to demonstrate their greater ability.

Case in point, Boston College.

Continue reading "About Last Night: Disappointment Edition"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 5:01 PM | Comments (0)

January 7, 2009

Of Boards and Men

In the process of applying for a real job yesterday afternoon, I had to write a short article on a subject with a local angle.

That shouldn't be a problem when the subject is Northwestern sports.

So I wrote it.

Three hundred glorious words on why Northwestern men's basketball is struggling now that conference season has started because of rebounds.

Heck, I should just let you read it yourself:

Continue reading "Of Boards and Men"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:13 AM | Comments (0)

January 5, 2009

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 5

Two weeks pass and you would think nothing ever changes around the MRI. Pittsburgh still leads the pack. The ACC still maintains its jumble at the top. And Indiana still continues to struggle.

Yes, the more time passes, the more we see the field of contenders really take shape. Just look at how UCLA has vaulted itself into the tops of the rankings with its 8-game winning streak.

Not that it has been that easy for all of them.

Take Georgetown, who beat Connecticut on the road, only to return home and lose to Pittsburgh, the continuing No. 1 team in the MRI.

It seems you just can't catch any breaks if you are the Hoyas.

Or how about Syracuse who is on a 5-game win streak since dropping its game against Cleveland State at the buzzer, but they still can't crack back into the top 25.

And if you look at the MRI scores, we have quite a bunching from No. 7 through No. 28. This could be a very interesting tournament if things continue to go the way they have been. Teams will be so similar in stature and quality, we may see quite a number of upsets in March, just because seeding all of these doppelgangers will be so difficult.

Now that the new year has started, it is time for the teams to prove themselves in conference. I will have my eyes on the ACC, which has come out of the gate hard (and already seen one upset with UNC losing to Boston College last night), and on the Big East where the teams will continue to just beat each other up.

Yes, it should be an interesting two months.

The MRI correctly predicted 73.64 percent of the games over the past two weeks, making it 73.21 percent correct on the season. All time the MRI has correctly predicted 71.79 percent of the games.

Check out all the ratings in week 5 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 5"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:50 AM | Comments (0)

December 30, 2008

Rankings, what rankings?

No rankings this week. The two days off for Christmas Eve and Christmas coupled with a solo game on the 26th left this week severely lacking in games to judge the week on.

So we will wait until after this week until the next basketball rankings appear again.

But know this, UCLA is quickly climbing to the top and Stanford has breached the top 25 so things may be settling for the long conference run at the tournament.

Stay tuned for more bowl picks and analysis in the days to come.

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:01 AM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2008

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 4

Pittsburgh survived another week at the top of the heap, and it came with a real test.

Florida State was a victim of the current top achievers in the MRI and it could stand as a good indication that Pittsburgh could be standing tall in the rankings through a good portion of the Big East season.

FSU brings the height and the strength of a true major conference foe, something that had been lacking in Pittsburgh's schedule up to this point. Winning this tough extra-conference game at this point in the season should flow nicely for Pitt as they enter conference season next week.

Conference season comes with a price though. Pitt may wear down as the season rolls on. There is a reason that no team from the Big East has made the final game in the NCAA tournament since the league became the monster 16-team division.

The league is too tough. Playing 18 league games in that kind of atmosphere is too hard on the players by the end of the season.

The Big East may have lost Miami, BC and Virginia Tech, but it added some of the toughest basketball programs in the nation. Marquette and Louisville were certainly no pushovers when they came into the fold. DePaul might not be the rare vintage that the school once was, but they still bring in some tough ball players that don't exist at the other three schools. And Cincinnati has a tradition of hard-nosed ball that had them at the top of Conference USA for years (built on the backs of JC transfers brought in by Bob Huggins).

The Big East is its own worst enemy, especially in its bloated format.

So despite a big win from Connecticut over Gonzaga, and the performances of Pitt and West Virginia to date, along with the other 8 or so Big East heavies, don't expect to see me pick a Big East team as a winner in the tournament.

They just won't have the chops left when crunch time comes.

The MRI correctly predicted 76.86 percent of the games this week. The computer has correctly predicted 71.74 percent of the games since its inception.

Check out all the rankings in week four of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 4"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:23 PM | Comments (0)

December 19, 2008

Big Props to Psycho T

Stop and take a look at the picture that accompanies this article.

Look how graceful Tyler Hansbrough seems as he lays the ball in.

Ok, now forget that image.

That is not the real "Psycho T".

No, the real Hansbrough worked his way into the low post and practically shoved the basketball toward the basket last night to score the points that made him the all-time leading scorer at North Carolina, breaking Phil Ford's 30-year-old record.

Think about that achievement. This isn't the top scorer at some no name school; this is North Carolina.

And this is not some shot-heavy guard that took away the mark, it is a tough center.

Hansbrough did it the way he made most of his now-career 2302 points -- hard-driving, muscle-ripping, and pounding.

That is the Hansbrough that has brought North Carolina back to the top of the basketball world.

It is also the Hansbrough that will probably drop in all the draft lists because he is not polished enough, he doesn't shoot from outside, and he hasn't got the finesse to play in the NBA.

That is all ridiculous scout nonsense.

This is a basketball player at his best. And if grit and determination aren't valued anymore, then so be it.

But, you would be hard pressed to count the number of basketball players who would have accepted the accolades that come with Hansbrough's achievement with as much humility as the senior did. In an era of 'Me, Me, Me', Hansbrough is all about team.

He looked as if he would rather forget the whole thing happened during the brief stoppage of play after the record basket. He wanted to get back to playing.

And some team in the NBA should reward that because they will get a player on their team that they never have to worry about giving 100 percent and not getting into trouble on off nights or after the game.

Congrats to Hansbrough for his achievement...

And for being a real class act in a sport that is severely lacking in that category.

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:18 PM | Comments (0)

December 15, 2008

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 3

Just when you thought no one could overtake North Carolina, well, here comes Pittsburgh.

The Panthers are off to another undefeated start, and while it won't last come Big East play, is has been very impressive.

Take their dominance on the boards. Pitt is out-rebounding their opponents by an average of 10.2 per game. If you can guarantee second shots like that, and keep your opponents from the same, you can see why no one has yet beat them.

Now, Pittsburgh could be on the edge of a big fall. None of their wins have been true road games. Their best two wins have been neutral site wins against Texas Tech and Washington State.

And the Big East is a huge challenge this season. Just count the teams in the top 25 of the MRI. Outside of Pitt, you have UConn, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette and Syracuse.

Eight teams. Almost one-third of the posted rankings. (The ACC is still at the top. It doesn't have the poor bottom that the Big East does, and it takes three of the top four spots.)

So, while UNC might not be the top team this week, it could change after the holidays are over and the real fun starts in January.

Until then, at least Pitt can claim one week where they were better than the Tar Heels.

The MRI correctly predicted 73.40 percent of the games this week. All-time, the MRI has predicted 71.68 percent of the games.

Check out all the rankings in week three of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 3"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 5:09 PM | Comments (0)

December 8, 2008

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 2

Just in case you couldn't guess, North Carolina is again No. 1 this week.

It wasn't at all surprising with the way they took it to Michigan State in the ACC - Big Ten Challenge.

So, let's talk about the more shocking news.

Northwestern is No. 8 in the MRI.

Northwestern.

N-O-R-T-H-W-E-S-T-E-R-N

The team that has never, ever, made the NCAA tournament.

They are not only No. 8, but they are the topped ranked Big Ten team in the MRI going into the conference season.

Who would have called that as even a possibility prior to this season?

I didn't.

Bob McClellan at Rivals.com didn't think so either earlier this year, although he though they were getting closer.

I am not saying that Northwestern will win the Big Ten, but this is an encouraging sign going into the conference season. Granted the schedule has not been the toughest so far, but a win against Florida State is very encouraging.

Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois,...

If Northwestern can eek out a 5th place finish in the Big Ten, who is to say that won't be enough for the Wildcats to break the drought? Ohio State and Michigan might have something to say about that 5th place finish, but so far, I think Northwestern has shown they are going to be more than a doormat this season.

It is still a long way to go to Selection Sunday, but the first month is certainly very encouraging.

The MRI correctly predicted 68.46 percent of the games in its first week. All-time, the system is has predicted 71.66 percent of the games.

Check out all the rankings in week 2 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 2"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:12 PM | Comments (0)

December 1, 2008

MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 1

Welcome back college basketball.

You have been missed.

It is the annual release of the first college basketball rankings from the MRI. It is usually a mess, and about half of the teams in the top 25 now will be missing come February.

It is also great fuel for the fiery discussions that will inevitably occur: How Louisville could be so far down this early, if Dayton is really a top 10 team, when will Clemson blow it all this season, and will this finally be the year for Northwestern?

Yes, the MRI -- nothing better than a fresh set of rankings.

This year's opening set has a little issue: Last year's rankings were never complete.

I know, shame on your resident statistician.

But the keeper of the MRI was away reporting from the snowy streets of Humboldt Park in Chicago last winter and that did not make for happy times in MRI land.

So, while last season was a little truncated, don't expect this one to be.

Although we might just want to give up now.

North Carolina has shown in a few short weeks that they will not be going away easy this season.

Think about it. Tyler Hansbrough has only played in half of the games. That means Mr. All-everything has only been able to contribute to 50 percent of the beatings which have occurred so far, and the Tar Heels are already leading the pack.

At this point, teams rated lower than about 20 should just think about packing up and going home if this keeps up. We could be on our way to an undefeated season and a new MRI record.

And if not, I can't wait to see the upset that shakes the world of basketball at its very foundations.

Until then, enjoy week one of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2008 - Rankings Week 1"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:43 PM | Comments (0)

February 18, 2008

MRI 2007 - Week 12: Same names, different numbers

If you want changes, well, I am sorry to disappoint you. The top five teams are the same five teams as last week.

Only this week, they decided they didn't like where they were the week before and shake things up a bit.

North Carolina returns to the top spot thanks to a Kansas loss and a big win over Virginia Tech. The Tarheels cross the 200 point MRI threshold, which should have them gunning for a #1 seed in March.

Kansas falls to #2 thanks to its loss.

Staying in the #3 spot is Memphis. The Tigers briefly moved into the top spot earlier in the week amidst the shuffling, but a couple of close wins have them back in their old familiar location.

Moving back into the #4 hole is UCLA, thanks to a Duke loss, only its second of the season. The Dukies are #5 after quietly being the last team other than Memphis to lose its second game.

Check out all the rankings in Week 12 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2007 - Week 12: Same names, different numbers"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:29 PM | Comments (0)

February 11, 2008

MRI 2007 - Week 11: #1 continues to shuffle

For anyone that thinks being undefeated should get you to the #1 spot in any poll, I contend you are mistaken.

Kansas and North Carolina, with three losses between them, currently have a stranglehold on that top spot. This week, Kansas returns to the top after another loss by North Carolina, this one to rival Duke.

All this shuffling has allowed undefeated Memphis to close the gap between itself and the leaders, but not overtake them.

Behind them, still trails Duke and UCLA, but a fairly large gap remains between the top three and the rest of the pack.

Check out all the rankings in Week 11 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2007 - Week 11: #1 continues to shuffle"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 5:15 PM | Comments (0)

February 4, 2008

MRI 2007 - Week 10: A Kansas loss, a new #1

Perhaps I was wrong. Kansas State pulls a historic shocking upset of the Kansas Jayhawks to knock the high-flying birds from the top spot in the MRI.

In their place, it is North Carolina, who rolled with another two strong wins.

However, the story of the week might be UCLA which pounced back into the #4 spot in the MRI, just behind the lone undefeated in Division 1, Memphis.

Rounding out the top five, is not Xavier. It is Duke, who is quietly hanging in there without a big man and with only a single loss on the year. The biggest test becomes a game with the #1 North Carolina Tarheels in the coming week.

Check out all the rankings in week 10 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2007 - Week 10: A Kansas loss, a new #1"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:55 PM | Comments (0)

January 28, 2008

MRI 2007 - Week 9: The lead grows, can anyone stop the Jayhawks?

If you thought that Xavier was out of it, you might have been mistaken. The Musketeers have come through to pass UCLA for the #4 spot once again.

But don't think the same thing happened for the #1 spot. Kansas extended its lead on the top spot. With much of the season gone, it will become harder for anyone to catch them, especially when the disadvantage to Kansas for losing a game will not be as harsh as the season rolls on. And Kansas almost had the biggest gain for the second week in a row.

North Carolina stays in second place with Memphis still filling in the #3 hole. UCLA slips but stays in the #5 slot.

Check out all the rankings in week 9 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2007 - Week 9: The lead grows, can anyone stop the Jayhawks?"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:50 PM | Comments (0)

January 20, 2008

MRI 2007 - Week 8: Kansas jumps to the front

Ch-ch-ch-changes!

Kansas takes the #1 spot in the MRI because of North Carolina's first loss of the season to Maryland. It shouldn't come as any surprise then that the Jayhawks also had the largest gain of the week to pull into that lead.

North Carolina only drops to #2, followed by consistent #3 Memphis.

However, look out for UCLA who has now moved into the #4 spot, although a clear fourth behind the leaders as they sit right now.

The loser in all this? Xavier.

That was to be expected after a shocking loss to Temple. And this wasn't a slim margin, but 19 points to the Owls, who are 118th in the latest MRI.

Check out all the rankings in Week 8 of the MRI.

Continue reading "MRI 2007 - Week 8: Kansas jumps to the front"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:19 PM | Comments (0)

December 19, 2006

Time to Catch You Up

Apologies for my absence over the last week or so. I was out of town with little access to my computer or the MRI spreadsheets.

The good news? There is a lot to tell you about.

The bad news? There is a lot to tell you about.

I will start with the last two weeks of the MRI rankings, move into college football bowl games (yes, there are still those), perhaps the MRI will take on the World again this year if I can find some predictions, and finally, the coaching changes. Can someone tell me how to pronounce the name of the new BC coach?

Stay tuned to this channel

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:11 AM | Comments (0)

April 1, 2005

Not an April Fool's Day Joke

Those of you who tuned into the site late yesterday probably noticed that things are looking a little bit different around here. I finally was able to deliver on the site redesign that I had been promising for the last two months. The new site will allow you to read On The Field, Sitting Courtside, and view the rankings for football and basketball all in one convenient spot.

The archives are still being updated to the new format. Until then, you can access them through a link on the right that goes to the old site design and provides all the back information you need.

In addition, the new site design will allow you to subscribe to MRISports.com with your trusty newsreader or any RSS feed reader. You can find the link to subscribe through Bloglines or the RSS feed at the bottom of the right side of the page.

The Comments feature on the new site are also enhanced. You now will not need to be a member of Blogger to leave me comments about my posts with your actual name and, in addition, you will be able to leave comments directly on the rankings postings. Of course, you are still free to email me all your rants and raves and who knows, you may be featured in a future installment of Defending the MRI.

Need to know where a team was consistently ranked throughout the years? Now you can use the trusty web search on the right column to look for that team's name. It will pull any post where that team or any other search words have been mentioned.

Enjoy the new site design everyone, and I will continue to update the archives until they are all accounted for. If you have any comments or questions, send them on to bmiraski at mrisports.com

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)