MRISports.com: Games to Watch Archives

December 28, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/28/07

It has been over a week since the last Games to Watch article. That week was one that saw the downing of a number of our top teams in their first losses of the season.

Fridays don't normally bring us much in terms of Games to Watch, and likely won't have us losing any undefeateds, but it does have some interesting games on tap.

Let's check out what exactly those might be.

Delaware State at MRI #20 Xavier: Xavier has had a rough stretch lately (losses to Tennessee and a big MOV loss to Arizona State) and has fallen from their #1 MRI spot all the way to #20. Facing Delaware State should be a remedy to what ails them.
MRI Predicts: Xavier Confidence Factor: 94.22%

St. Joseph's at Siena: Two teams which could emerge as contenders in their conferences. St. Joe's has the benefit of the Atlantic 10 being slightly stronger and potentially up for multiple bids. They would still have to overcome a rocky start to the season, but conference season has a way of separating the best teams from the pack. Siena doesn't have any the advantage of the stronger league. That makes this all the more important for the Saints to win at home.
MRI Predicts: Siena Confidence Factor: 70.76%

Southern Mississippi at MRI #15 Mississippi: Southern Mississippi had a strong showing last week and made a big move in the MRI, capturing the biggest gain of the week. Mississippi is still undefeated. I am betting on that continuing to be the case tonight, but you never know what can happen when the visiting team is suddenly hot.
MRI Predicts: Mississippi Confidence Factor: 83.02%

MRI #23 Butler at Southern Illinois: Earlier this season, this might have been a highlighted game across the country. Unfortunately, Southern Illinois hasn't lived up to the big billing they got at the beginning of the season. Still, this is an important game as Southern Illinois is expected to do much better once they are into their Missouri Valley season, and this game will matter for those "good wins" come March. It may also affect how the seeding shakes out in the tournament should both teams make it. Surprisingly, given their performances this season, Butler is the underdog in this one. Look for a close game down in Carbondale.
MRI Predicts: Butler Confidence Factor: 59.09%

Mount St. Mary's at Oregon: I know this game doesn't look like much, but Oregon is an interesting team to keep an eye on. You can forgive them their loss to St. Mary's. The Gaels are a very good team. However, Oregon has now lost two straight to Nebraska and Oakland, of all teams. I am not thinking that Mount St. Mary's has a shot in this one, but given the struggles of the Ducks lately, I am not ruling anything out.
MRI Predicts: Oregon Confidence Factor: 86.16%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 7 - 2
This Season: 735 - 266, 73.43%
All Time: 12422 - 4868, 71.84%

The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 10:55 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 20, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/20/07

Maybe I should put a call out to Wofford in every edition of Games to Watch when they play. The Terriers came through last night with one of the three biggest numerical upsets of the year so far in the MRI by beating Purdue at in West Lafayette. It was a game that went back and forth throughout the night. Two big reasons for the success of Wofford was their shooting from beyond the arc, and staying close on the rebounding margin. The win was only Wofford's second Division 1 victory of the season.

Ohio also came through on the road in Hawaii. The game was close as the numbers from the MRI thought it would be. If only the MRI had been correct on that game. Overall, still a good night for the MRI. Let's look at tonight with a slightly smaller slate of games.

DePaul vs. MRI #19 Mississippi in Puerto Rico: Mississippi is on the road in Puerto Rico, and maybe that will be the turning point in their season so far. They seemed to have stalled in the MRI, not able to make up much ground and climb the rankings, but still holding onto the numbers which make them the best team in the SEC. Will facing a team from a BCS conference for the first time this season make a difference and give the Rebs their first loss? The MRI seems to think it is unlikely.
MRI Predicts: Mississippi Confidence Factor: 78.71%

MRI #16 Gonzaga at Oklahoma: Gonzaga continues what is their annual trip all over the country tonight. Oklahoma is surprising early but there is still some doubt whether they can continue this well as they head into their Big XII season. A win against Gonzaga could go a long way towards showing they are real contenders. The MRI thinks that Gonzaga will challenge that "statement" from Oklahoma.
MRI Predicts: Gonzaga Confidence Factor: 51.02%

MRI #1 Duke vs. MRI #10 Pittsburgh in New York: By far the best game of the night, and it will mean the end to one team's perfect season. Duke has defied the odds and won without a strong interior presence by pressing and shooting well. They have also spread the ball around a lot better than they have in the past. Pittsburgh is a different team now that Aaron Gray is not taking up the middle. They still have a nice freshman in the middle in DeJuan Blair, but instead of being dependent on the inside game, they also spread the ball around to get shots from all over the floor. Duke has a "home court advantage" in this one as they have been 15-5 at Madison Square Garden since Coach K took over all those years ago. Look for the better shooting of Duke mean the difference in this one.
MRI Predicts: Duke Confidence Factor: 59.13%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 39 - 12
This Season: 599 - 216, 73.50%
All Time: 12286 - 4818, 71.83%

Posted by bmiraski at 11:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 19, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/19/07

Things basically went as planned last night, with only five losses for the MRI out of 32 games. The biggest shocker was South Carolina Upstate getting their first Division 1 win of the season. Other than that, the most surprising victory might have been Mount St. Mary's taking out Winthrop. Given the way things have gone for Winthrop and Davidson this season, maybe we are seeing a rotation of the powers at the low major level.

Big slate of games tonight. Let's see where the MRI stands.

MRI #11 Memphis at Cincinnati: Remember when this was one of the biggest games in Conference USA? Not anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if Memphis won by about 30.
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence Factor: 70.69%

Wofford at Purdue: Purdue might also win this game by 30. If you want a sleeper surprise team in the early going this season it might be the Boilermakers. It is too bad they will beat up on the MRI's mascot team tonight.
MRI Predicts: Purdue Confidence Factor: 92.03%

Bradley at Butler: A great contrast in styles will go at it in Indianapolis tonight. This is another of those seeding-type games, since I am betting on both of these teams to make it to the NCAA tournament. I know the Bradley pick is a stretch but a strong showing in the Missouri Valley will likely give them the benefit of the doubt considering the league's "image" which has been much improved over the last few seasons. The MRI likes the home team tonight though.
MRI Predicts: Butler Confidence Factor: 78.76%

New Mexico State at New Mexico: Here is a chance for New Mexico to avenge their loss to their in-state brethren earlier this season. Apparently the loss didn't sway Vegas very much. The Lobos opened as a 9 point favorite although the line has come back. The MRI likes New Mexico in this one, much like the first time around.
MRI Predicts: New Mexico Confidence Factor: 83.00%

Arizona at UNLV: Given all that is going on in Lute Olson's life right now, it is not hard to imagine that next season, when he will be back, will be his last in charge of Arizona. For a man who has done so much in his career and sent more than his fair share of players to the NBA, it will be the passing of an era in the game. Olson is a sure fire Hall of Famer and a legend of the game. Arizona is making a strong run for the Top 25 in the MRI after a slightly rocky start. That said, tonight might be more difficult than you would expect for the Wildcats. This is my "Win the games you are expected to win" game for the night.
MRI Predicts: Arizona Confidence Factor: 51.05%

Ohio vs. St. John's in Hawaii: Ohio is a dangerous team. The win over Maryland showed that. The blowout loss to Kansas didn't. Not that we expected them to win at Kansas, especially given how well the Jayhawks are playing. This may be one of the closest games ever in the MRI, as the two teams are only 0.09 points apart in the rankings. The neutral court makes it even more even. A slight advantage in the MRI for St. John's but this is really anyone's game.
MRI Predicts: St. John's Confidence Factor: 51.05%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 27 - 5
This Season: 560 - 204, 73.30%
All Time: 12247 - 4806, 71.82%

Posted by bmiraski at 11:50 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 18, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/18/07

Monday night didn't bring us much to watch, hence the lack of a Games to Watch last night. The biggest news in the MRI world came in two games last night.

Duke easily brought down Albany. That win moved them back to the #2 spot in the MRI. I mentioned in yesterday's ratings release that Duke's strength over the early part of the season was a major reason that they were still in the top 5 after not playing for an entire week. Last night served almost as a scrimmage for Thursday's big game against Pittsburgh. Duke currently has a 59.15% chance of winning that game, at the "neutral" site of Madison Square Garden. I quote neutral because Duke has a ridiculous record at MSG, which could work in their favor.

The second game of interest in the MRI last night was the loss by the Southland's Texas Arlington to TCU. The loss was the first of the year for UT-Arlington and dropped them from #46 to #59 in the MRI. That doesn't seem like much, but UT-Arlington needed every victory they could prior to conference season beginning. Positioning themselves higher in the MRI and other statistical rankings was almost the only way that the team could remain on the radar for an at large bid come March. It is a possibility that UT-Arlington could get back in the mix, but the bottom half of the conference will definitely pull down the Mavericks as they continue to play out the season (and likely win a majority of the games).

There remain 13 teams without a loss this season, and there are still 13 teams without a Division 1 victory.

On to tonight:

Southern Illinois at Western Michigan: Another test for Southern Illinois. I am not sure what to think at this point about the Salukis given they crazy season to date. The win over St. Mary's was impressive, and could have Southern Illinois back on track. The game at Western Michigan tonight is a big deal to both teams. The MRI slightly leans toward the Salukis on the road.
MRI Predicts: Southern Illinois Confidence Factor: 52.26%

Kentucky at Houston: The loss by Kentucky over the weekend to UAB was a big one on two fronts. First, it showed that Kentucky has a long way to go to get back to where they will be contending each season. Part of that is transition to a new style of offense and defense. Part of that was just a lull in recruiting from Tubby Smith to Billy Gillispie. The folks in Kentucky just need patience as Billy-Ball will have Kentucky back at the top sometime soon. The second piece that was important in that game was a win for Mike Davis who needs all the victories he can get as he tries to re-establish himself as a coach in Birmingham.

Tonight, Kentucky takes on 9-1 Houston. Normally you would expect an easy victory for the Wildcats. However, the MRI is leaning heavily in the Cougars' favor.
MRI Predicts: Houston Confidence Factor: 82.99%

New Orleans at Southern Mississippi: New Orleans was a surprise in the early going but they have gone a little under the radar lately. Southern Mississippi for their part has inflated their record against non-D. 1 teams, while losing to Alabama, Cal, and South Alabama. Losing to teams who have had such good starts has helped the Southern Mississippi MRI to date. While the computer likes them slightly, I think New Orleans has a good chance to pull off the upset and by a large margin. This will be a nice win prior to the start of their conference season.
MRI Predicts: Southern Mississippi Confidence Factor: 50.99%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 26 - 5
This Season: 533 - 199, 72.81%
All Time: 12220 - 4801, 71.79%

Posted by bmiraski at 2:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 14, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/14/07

Neither of the undefeateds went down last night. Winthrop couldn't pull off the upset over Mississippi and Mississippi State lacked the drive to get it done against Miami.

Maybe we shouldn't count Miami out in the ACC this season. They seem to be among the teams playing consistent basketball that is lacking from normally steady Boston College and Maryland.

Slow Friday slate as is typical for this time of year. Only 3 Division 1 games and only one to keep a small eye one.

Drake at Iowa: I talked about Drake in my rant yesterday. The fast start could be bolstered by a win over Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been inconsistent to say the least. After four straight wins to open the season against less than stellar competition, Iowa followed with four straight losses, including a loss to Wake Forest in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. That was a game that should have gone to the Big Ten. They also lost to Louisiana-Monroe in that stretch and that shouldn't be happening to anyone in the Big Ten, even Northwestern. But then there were two straight wins including one at Northern Iowa, which seemed to signal they were back, until dropping one to Iowa State three days later. Who knows what Iowa will show up tonight. They are catching Drake at the wrong time. This is a team with a lot to prove prior to the Missouri Valley season when a lot of the games will "disappear" from the public eye unless someone is on a huge run.
MRI Predicts: Drake Confidence Factor: 66.84%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 10-2
This Season: 432 - 173, 71.40%
All Time: 12119 - 4775, 71.74%

Posted by bmiraski at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 13, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/13/07

Calling the ACC. Time to reassert that you are the best basketball conference in America. That means not losing to Massachusetts. That means not losing to Ohio.

Granted both of those losses last night were by teams which weren't among the "elite" this season, such as Duke or North Carolina. I still thought that Boston College was showing something more than what they had against Massachusetts. Guess not.

My beef for the day is that the ESPNU College Basketball Podcast is stealing my thunder here. Their lead offs and final shots over the last two weeks have covered material you would have heard about first in the MRI by reading Games to Watch. Topics have been about Xavier, about the WAC, and some teams to keep an eye on for Selection Sunday that would come out of the smaller conferences. Just remember you heard it here first that the Colonial will be lucky to get two teams this year, and should be happy with a single berth. Just remember that you heard about Duquesne and the possible resurgence of the Atlantic 10. Just remember that you saw Drake in the Top 25 of the MRI during week 3 when they start to win a few games in conference later.

So with that, I am stealing one of their items which shouldn't be news. Davidson has long been a name to worry about when it appears on your schedule. They routinely put scares into the North Carolinas and Dukes of the world. They are in the upper echelon of teams which come from the bottom third of conferences.

In years past, they have done everything they can, including winning a few of those big name games, and going undefeated in the conference regular season. Still, if they slip up during the conference tournament in the Southern conference they lose out on a bid in the tournament, even though they might be better than the 7th team out of a power conference. So they year, they went out and scheduled the heck out of things. Look at the schedule to date: At North Carolina, At Western Michigan (probably one of the best MAC teams), at Duke, at Charlotte (surprisingly decent this season), at UCLA. That is a road warrior's nightmare schedule. Predictably, they lost all five of those games. And so Davidson has a very un-Davidson-like 2-5 record against Division 1 teams. They are still the class of the Southern conference though. They continue that season tonight, already with a win over Appalachian State under they belt.

The Citadel at Davidson
MRI Predicts: Davidson Confidence Factor: 91.96%

In other MRI action, we get a chance to see two teams without losses take a fall tonight.

Winthrop at Mississippi: Winthrop is the Davidson of the Big South. They have won three straight Big South titles and the majority of them over the last decade. Tonight they have a chance to take out Mississippi, who is surprisingly undefeated. The only team that the Rebs have played of consequence is New Mexico and I really thought that game would have gone the other way. The MRI likes the Rebs tonight, but Winthrop is forever dangerous in these situations.
MRI Predicts: Mississippi Confidence Factor: 82.82%

Miami at Mississippi State: The other undefeated tonight is Miami who flies into Mississippi State, who should be the class of the SEC West this season, although that doesn't mean much. Miami does have some decent wins against Marist, VCU, and on the road against Providence. Another team in the "third tier" probably doesn't scare them very much. The first tier being those teams in the top 15 or so in the country. The second tier being those team which will rotate around the bottom of the rankings all year. The third tier being those teams which are likely bubble teams come March. Miami is looking to stay in that second tier with a win tonight.

ESPN, for their part is touting Tyler Hansbrough's brother, Ben, who plays for Mississippi State. He is a fairly solid contributor, although definitely not the type of player that makes a major splash for a team like his brother. Way to hype up a kid before you put him on the ESPN Full Court tonight. I am sure they won't talk about the article at all during the game.

I thought Mississippi State was a little left out last year come tournament time. They were playing their best basketball at the end of the season, and despite how poor the West was in the SEC, you really had to take a hard look at them before leaving them out. They carried that momentum to a semi-final appearance in the NIT and lost on a shot at the buzzer by West Virginia. That shows the talent is there and that is why, despite some stumbles early this season, I think they have the best team in the West. Not Alabama, not Arkansas, not even their cross-state rivals. Mississippi State should win 10 games in conference this season. Of course, after all of that, the MRI likes them to lose tonight, but not by much.
MRI Predicts: Miami Confidence Factor: 52.14%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 12 - 4
This Season: 422 - 171, 71.16%
All Time: 12109 - 4773, 71.73%

Posted by bmiraski at 11:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 12, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/12/07

The MRI went .500 last night, although you wouldn't know it from the games that I chose to point out yesterday.

Southern Illinois hosted an undefeated St. Mary's team which looked like it could do no wrong. Instead of the expected result, the Salukis practically blew the Gaels out of the gym. I guess that St. Mary's won't be ranked for long.

Bradley traveled to Ohio to face Wright State, and got an important road win for them. Bradley is going to be one of those teams (assuming they don't totally collapse in their conference season) that will get a long hard look from the committee. They are either a last one in or last one out at this point, at least from what I have seen from their early start. Joe Lunardi won't put out another Bracketology until next week, so we will all have to have a good look at that to see. Wright State was getting some hype from ESPN in their weekly watch, so this win should at least make a little ripple in the minds of those at the WWL.

And then there is Louisiana Tech, now #318 of 341 in the MRI. That is because they could not get well with a win over a SWAC team last night. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a team that has been among the worst teams of the last decade, pulled off a win over the Bulldogs, 61-49. This on its own could illustrate the plight of the WAC this season. Louisiana Tech, with this futility, won't be helping to raise the RPI of anyone. Seven of the other eight teams are either at .500 or worse against Division 1 teams. One bid and a #12 seed or worse seems likely for the winner from the former power conference.

So what is there to take a look at tonight? Hopefully better than a 7-7 record, but that is besides the point. First up, let's head out to the home of 5-way chili, Cincinnati.

Cincinnati at MRI #1 Xavier: This is probably one of the most under-rated rivalry games in college basketball. Every season, this game has had the ability to go either way. Xavier is one of the top teams you never hear about while Cincinnati was a power for a long time under Bob Huggins. Huggybear isn't coaching the Bearcats anymore and they seem to have fallen a bunch since their move to the Big East. Xavier meanwhile is the top team in the country according to my computer and they have showed it. As I said before, they are doing it with a strong team oriented approach which has only gotten better over the course of the short season so far. Drew Lavender is now averaging over 5 assists per game, and his shooting has improved to make him a serious 5th threat on the floor. Meanwhile, things just keep clicking. This is a rivalry so you can't rule anything out, but the X-factor should be strong tonight
MRI Predicts: Xavier Confidence Factor: 94.33%

Ohio at Maryland: I am not necessarily agreeing with the MRI on this game. The computer thinks that Ohio can pull off the upset tonight at Maryland. But what I should point out is that Ohio is locked in a battle in the very difficult Eastern Division of the MAC. If the MAC is to get two teams into the tournament this season (probably more of a longshot than it should be), then both might come out of the horse race on this side of the conference. The Bobcats are four points away from an undefeated season right now, and Maryland, as we wrote about earlier this season, has some weaknesses which can be exploited. If Ohio can force the turnovers, look for the upset. It should at least be closer than the 8 point line that Las Vegas has set.
MRI Predicts: Ohio Confidence Factor: 51.00%

Massachusetts at Boston College: Another rivalry game which probably doesn't get as much attention as it should because both of these schools haven't been good at the same time in a while. Well, Boston College is a little down this season while Massachusetts is a little up, making this a fairly evenly matched contest. Massachusetts has already scored a quality road win at Syracuse although they followed that up with a loss at IUPUI. Another huge win on the road could go a long way towards erasing that. BC, for its part, is coming off of a big road win against Maryland to open their ACC season . I know everyone expects them to be out of the race in the ACC after all of their losses to graduation, but I think they should still be a strong contender, at least for 3rd place. That is because the losses have been more than accounted for by contributions from impact freshman Rakim Sanders and Corey Raji. Sure, the ACC season is like nothing that these two have seen before, but at least Raji's performance off the bench (17 pts.) against Maryland shows that they are ready for the challenge. Now it is a matter of making sure they win the non-conference games they are expected to win.
MRI Predicts: Boston College Confidence Factor: 73.43%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 7 - 7
This Season: 410 - 167, 71.06%
All Time: 12097 - 4769, 71.72%

Posted by bmiraski at 11:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 11, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/11/07

Last night turned out pretty much as expected. VMI was able to take out the Builders from the Apprentice School. It took them scoring over 100 to do it, since they let Newport get 96, but they got it done.

And then there is the sad little story of NJIT who fell to 0-12 in Division 1 games with their loss last night against Stony Brook. I still have no idea why NJIT decided to try their hand in Division 1, but here they are, although only as an independent at this point, and without the ability to qualify for any post season tournaments. Not that they would be in line with a record like this. They are just another school with dreams of making it big in the top league which probably should have checked themselves in the mirror first.

Their location is probably the biggest issue. Here they are, firmly in the Northeast part of the country, yet they are surrounded by a number of conferences which are already bloated or full without hope of a easy expansion. What team would want to step into that, risking being on their own for so long? There is nowhere for them to hope to latch on to, when they might be finally eligible to do so. Instead they have to sit and wait it out, playing on the road more often than not, and scrapping away with the other unaffiliated teams.

That is not the way to live in Division 1, a decision that right now, probably doesn't look so good.

On to tonight. In honor of NJIT, let's start with another game that features two teams ranked in the 300+ range in the MRI.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Louisiana Tech: How do you bounce back from a crushing defeat like Louisiana Tech had against Texas Tech (42 -1 runs are not good for your health)? You play a team from the SWAC, of course. Can the Bulldogs turn it around to night? Well, playing at home can often cure many ills. And this is Arkansas-Pine Bluff after all.
MRI Predicts: Louisiana Tech Confidence Factor: 52.25%

Bradley at Wright State: Bradley is making their case as potentially the second bast team in the Missouri Valley after Creighton. They put up a 58 minute fight against Michigan State which almost turned into a major upset for the Braves. Tonight they take their game to Wright State, who scored maybe their largest victory of the season, taking out a ranked Butler team. If the Raiders had also taken down Valpo earlier in the week, when they had them at home, then maybe I would see reason for Wright State to potentially take the conference crown. Unfortunately, they were unable to do that. The MRI likes their chances tonight, although Bradley has a better than average shot on the road.
MRI Predicts: Wright State Confidence Factor: 51.03%

St. Mary's at Southern Illinois: Now here is the tale of two teams going in opposite directions. St. Mary's was supposed to be second best to Gonzaga this year, but it was hard to predict that the Gaels would have gotten this far without a loss. They hold in their back pocket the only losses of Drake and Oregon. Until this weekend, they were also the only team to have taken down Seton Hall. St. Mary's finds itself in the Top 25 in the national polls for the first time since the 1988 - 1989 season. And then there is Southern Illinois, who began the season ranked themselves. A 3-0 start seemed to indicate that this was foretold in that little number next to their name. And then the wheels fell off. USC brought the first hit and smashed the Salukis by 25 points. Then two more losses, to Indiana, and to the less than stellar team from Charlotte. Southern Illinois is a shadow of the team that was expected to sweep through the Missouri Valley conference and make yet another NCAA tournament appearance. Tonight is a chance to get it all back on track, especially with the Gaels coming all the way into Carbondale. Look for a close fight tonight, with MRI's pick St. Mary's coming out on top.
MRI Predicts: St. Mary's Confidence Factor: 52.25%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 4 - 1
This Season: 403 - 160, 71.58%
All Time: 12090 - 4762, 71.74%

Posted by bmiraski at 1:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 10, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/10/07

Anyone else remember when Mondays used to be Big Monday on ESPN? Maybe it will be later in the season, but tonight, we get nothing of interest. Eight games on the slate and only five of those have two Division 1 teams in them.

One game that the MRI can not pick as it involves a non-D1 team, features what could be out "Little Sisters of the Poor" game of the year. VMI faces off against the Newport News Apprentice School tonight at home. I don't expect the Keydets to have any trouble with the school that sounds like a night school for metal workers. Turns out it is a school that teaches the shipbuilding trade. While the students do not earn degrees there, they can earn credits toward an associates degree from an affiliated school. Yeah, got to hand it to the tough scheduling done by the VMI athletic department.

And don't worry, I will give an update on that score tomorrow.

One game of note features our basement team, NJIT:

NJIT at Stony Brook: Stony Brook is 1-7, while NJIT has no wins. I am not sure that this will be it, but it is the best chance for a Highlander win until they face Penn in early January. Even that game might be tough for them to get the victory in. I am looking for NJIT to beat the Savannah State record for worst MRI score, which is a tough call because those Savannah State squads were retched. If they win tonight, it will be the biggest numerical upset of the year to date.
MRI Predicts: Stony Brook Confidence Factor: 94.10%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 0 - 0
This Season: 399 - 159, 71.51%
All Time: 12086 - 4761, 71.74%

Posted by bmiraski at 5:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 7, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/7/07

Friday nights are interminably slow and scanning tonight's slate, there is only one game worth watching. So let's spend most of today looking at last night's games.

First, let's look back at last night's watch game. Valpo did manage to hold Todd Brown of Wright State to 5 for 16 shooting and only 12 points. They weren't able to outrebound the Raiders, but they did manage to eek out a 5 point win in a tough road game. So the MRI got that one wrong, but it was 51-49 for Wright State, so I am not too upset on that one. Overall the MRI got about 80% right last night, a big up from earlier in the week.

In Philadelphia, the Big East/SEC Invitational continued. On Wednesday night, it was two games in Alabama, SEC country for sure, of which the Big East took home both. Last night, the series got a split, but it looked like having the "home court advantage" wasn't going to work out at all for the Big East. In the early game, South Carolina took out Providence, a team that started early, and has stumbled this week. In the late game, LSU ran out to a 21 point lead but couldn't hold on. Villanova stormed back in the final three minutes to win on a shot with about six seconds left.

I admit to giving up on Villanova in that one. I turned to the it during commercials of the Bears - Redskins game, and saw just how badly the Wildcats were playing. At one point, the Nova guards were shooting 4 for 30 in the game, and that was late in the second half. There was no reason to believe that a comeback was going to happen.

So count me as shocked when I woke up this morning and saw that Nova had come back to win 68 - 67. That is the mark of a team that knows how to win. It should be a scary sign for those in the Big East if Villanova can muster that sort of effort and give their all to win like that. Granted, this was against LSU, which is nowhere close to the LSU of the Final Four two years ago, but that is still a win that Villanova can look at and say "This is our season. We want to win."

And finally, in a game that sets back basketball about 50 years, Samford beat Jacksonville State, 41 - 34. The teams shot a combined 30% from the floor. There were only 27 baskets in the entire game! They should give the money back to the 1427 fans that actually came to the game.

OK, enough of that. On to tonight.

Texas Arlington at Wichita State: I really like these games that look like early Bracket Buster matchups. If you haven't noticed them so far, Texas Arlington is undefeated and leading what is looking like it could be a very competitive Southland conference. I don't picture them getting multiple bids, but with UT-Arlington playing this well, they could be in line for a look if they stumble in their conference tournment. There are no signature wins yet, so a victory over a Missouri Valley team could make a big difference for them, especially if it comes on the road. The MRI likes Texas Arlington in the first of what could be a very defining road trip for the Mavericks. They follow up this game with games at TCU and Oklahoma State. A win here could start that off on the right foot.
MRI Predicts: Texas Arlington Confidence Factor: 52.24%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 19 - 5
This Season: 310 - 118, 72.43%
All Time: 11997 - 4720, 71.77%

Posted by bmiraski at 11:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 6, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/6/07

Last night's action was a mess of blowouts. West Virginia ran out to almost a 30 point lead over Auburn before the Tigers figured out how to shoot. Texas Tech rode a huge run from midway through the first half to midway through the second half to a 45 point lead against Louisiana Tech. The Red Raiders eventually won by 55 over the Bulldogs. Yes, this is the same Texas Tech team that lost to Centenary. I can't imagine what got into them other than Louisiana Tech is just not that good, which just plays back into the WAC's terrible MRI score for their conference. The former power conference is mired in 20th place, which leads me to believe that whoever comes out of that league will be lucky to get a 10 seed.

Some mid-major conferences start their league play tonight, which leads to some very uninteresting games. So I am only pointing to one tonight which you can attempt to watch if you can't get the NFL network and will miss the Bears - Redskins game.

Valparaiso at Wright State: Valparaiso, the former power of the Mid-Con conference, has moved from the conference now known as Summit to one known as Horizon. This new day for the Crusaders starts in earnest tonight as they face what could be their biggest foe for 2nd place in their new home. Valpo is off to a 5-1 start against Division 1 competition, but the loss came against the only real foe that they have faced yet, Vanderbilt. Wright State has a 2-1 record and their loss came against Marist, a team surprising early, out of the MAAC. So where does that leave us tonight? A tough game in middle America to be 2nd in line to Butler, the team likely to dominate the league. See if Valpo can shut down Todd Brown, Wright State's leading scorer, and force turnovers from the rest of the team, who seem to have ball control issues. For its part, Wright State will to stop Valpo's good ball rotation and find a way to overcome their size discrepancy. The MRI likes the home team in this one, but it could go either way.
MRI Predicts: Wright State Confidence Factor: 51.17%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 46 - 11
This Season: 291 - 113, 72.03%
All Time: 11978 - 4715, 71.75%

Posted by bmiraski at 12:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 5, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/5/07

If you looked at the score of the Tennessee - Chattanooga game and thought that it should have been a bigger spread, you are probably right. However, the score probably should have been going in the other direction.

Tennessee, a team expected to take the SEC crown with only scant pressure from Vanderbilt, was out-rebounded by the Mocs, and shot a season low 36%. If they had not forced Chattanooga into 33 (!!) turnovers, you could have expected to be reading about another upset of a top ten team this morning.

On another note last night, you can look at Harvard's game against Boston University for one of the reasons Tommy Amaker was let go from Michigan. I know I thought he deserved a little more time with the Wolverines. However, you can't lose games that you are supposed to win. Now, I am not saying that Boston University should have been a "gimmee" win for Harvard, but the Terriers were only 1-6 entering the game last night. Add in that Harvard was coming off a big win against Michigan, no matter how bad Michigan is going to be this season. You have to ride that wave and take it to another victory, not lose all momentum. I can see the headlines on all of the Michigan blogs this morning: "Same old Tommy".

Looking out West, it was a bad night for the Mountain West conference. The two teams expected to be near the top of the league, New Mexico and Air Force, both lost games on the road against inferior opponents. New Mexico lost to in-state rival, and member of the lagging WAC, New Mexico State by 9. Air Force was taken down by the MAC's 1-6 (prior to the game) Northern Illinois. Repeating my statement from the Harvard game, you have to win the games you are expected to win.

One final note before looking at tonight. I should apologize for making anyone watch the USC - Memphis game last night. USC had a nice game plan, forcing everyone not named Derrick Rose to beat them. It worked for most of the game because they forced Memphis into terrible possessions which led to turnover after turnover. But that is not what I wanted to point out.

Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo are not ready for the NBA.

There, I said it. Neither one has a game developed enough to move to the next level. Neither of these guys is a Greg Oden, or a Kevin Durant, who came into college last year, and already had most of the skills they needed in order to succeed at the next level. While I thought Durant was undersized (he has been hitting the weights), and Oden needed a few more low post moves, they were ready.

However, Beasley and Mayo continue to confound me. Yes, I can see the talent that is there. However, it is too raw for the next level. I can't see coaches at the next level working to refine their game. It is going to take a miracle for them to step in and be ready. Just look at Mayo's shooting. The boy is a 20-year old freshman and he has terrible shot selection. He also struggles in man to man defense, not keeping an eye on the ball and the man at the same time. This actually allowed Memphis to get a couple of easier baskets last night (although nothing really came easy for them), because Mayo was just looking at his opponent's belly button the entire time. They need more time.

Do I have faith in the NBA scouts to notice this, or for people with smarts to tell them this? No. But it will definitely come as a shock to these two when they are sitting on the bench in the NBA next season, instead of starting, and improving, in the college ranks.

Let's look at tonight:

Hampton at George Mason: The MEAC has some big wins this season, and their biggest hope is that they can find a way for their champion to play their way out of the play-in game. The Pirates already have a win over Virginia Commonwealth, which is probably the #2 team in the Colonial. Tonight they have a chance to knock off their third Colonial team of the season (they have also beaten Delaware). Playing on the road could be their undoing though. Look for about 25 from Will Thomas as the Patriots win a close one.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence Factor: 73.25%

MRI #7 Pittsburgh at MRI #23 Duquesne: People in Pittsburgh should be coming out in droves for this one. Duquesne is actually good. People should be watching them. The MRI likes this one to be close, although I am not sure on that one. Either way, this might be one of the few times you see this game when both teams are ranked by my computer.
MRI Predicts: Pittsburgh Confidence Factor: 52.15%

MRI #14 Creighton at MRI #2 Xavier: Xavier has slipped temporarily from the top spot in the MRI. Tonight is a chance for them to get it back. You should look at this game as a seeding battle come March. I would expect similar records (and resumes) out of these two by the end of the year, and this could be the difference between a 5 or 6 seed for one of the teams. Maybe I am wrong and both will be higher, but given the way things normally go in the committee, I think the best spot is maybe a 4 for either of them (the committee is still a little too "Major"-biased to allow both of these teams to get protected seeds with a good season). Being in Cincinnati is a huge difference in this one. Xavier takes this early "Bracket Buster"-type game.
MRI Predicts: Xavier Confidence Factor: 78.72%

Washington State at Gonzaga: This is the big game of the night. Washington State is man enough to travel down the road to Spokane and face Gonzaga at home. The Kennel is not a friendly place for visiting teams. I see rebounding differential as being the key statistic tonight. The team that can control the boards and win itself some second chance opportunities will take this one home. That edge goes to Gonzaga, and the Zags work their way back into the MRI top 25.
MRI Predicts: Gonzaga Confidence Factor: 70.61%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 19 - 9
This Season: 245 - 102, 70.61%
All Time: 11932 - 4704, 71.72%

Posted by bmiraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 4, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/4/07

It has been a tough few days for the MRI. I can almost compare this to the battle in football this season, where the predictions had a two week run where it seemed like nothing went right.

That wasn't exactly the truth. The MRI in football actually got 71% right this season, despite all of the upsets that we saw throughout the year. It was a slightly better percentage than it normally did, so I take that as a good sign. However, there were a few dark weeks.

Let's just hope it doesn't go that long for the MRI in basketball, or you never know who you will see at the top.

A little note on last night, also with a little reference to football season. One of the knocks on Ohio State playing in the National Championship was that their schedule out of conference was terrible, and with the way that the Big Ten played, that their in-conference schedule didn't really have any "big" games on it. This is in comparison to the SEC or the Big XII, whose teams normally play difficult games out of conference, or have a conference slate that can help improve the full profile of the league.

In last night's action, we saw Indiana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, all score easy wins in non-conference games. Outside of the ACC-Big Ten challenge, which saw the Big Ten look silly, there hasn't really been a team that has truly stepped up outside of league play except for Ohio State. Their grand total of wins in the big games (Syracuse, Texas A&M, UNC, Butler): 1, against Syracuse, probably the weakest of the four teams at this point in the season.

Yes, the teams may have a nice game or two on their schedule. Michigan State played UCLA. Indiana took on Xavier, and Southern Illinois. Michigan decided to get itself crushed by Georgetown and Butler, and they play Duke next. However, in each of the "up" games, they Big Ten has looked over powered and out matched.

This is supposed to be a down year for the league overall, but they haven't helped themselves with the scheduling or the performance in the few games that they have which could mean something come March.

Now they just have to wish that their performance then is better than what is expected out of the league when they square up in the bowl games. Only 2 of the eight bowl teams is favored in Vegas, and one of those is against a MAC opponent, the Big Ten's annual whipping boy when it comes to their non-conference slate.

One last thought before tonight's games. For those thinking that Memphis will run away with Conference USA this season and no other teams will have a chance to even play come March, don't get your hopes up. Tom Penders has Houston at 7-1, a nice start, and that loss was by only 1 to Virginia Commonwealth. The Cougars also have big games against Kentucky and Arizona which will look good if they can pull a win in one of them. Plus, they get two cracks at Memphis, which if they can score a win, almost locks them into a slot in the tournament with 20 wins. UAB and Marshall have chances at a sniff from the committee but Houston has the best hope for a slot in the field of 64.

Houston should have no issues with Toledo tonight which leads us to the rest of the MRI's thoughts:

Holy Cross at St. Joseph's: Two mid-majors (man, I still remember when the A-10 was relevant) who have a shot at coming out of their leagues, without the automatic bid, should things continue to go their way this season. This is essentially a playoff for the two if they are both on the bubble at the end of the season. Tim Clifford, at 6' 11", 260 is a force in the middle for the Crusaders, and the MRI thinks that gives them the slight edge in this one.
MRI Predicts: Holy Cross Confidence Factor: 54.72%

Kansas State vs MRI #13 Notre Dame: I can't help but wonder what Kansas State would be like if Bob Huggins had not left to take over at West Virginia. I am not doubting current Wildcat coach Frank Martin, but I know that Huggins would have been able to mold something special around Michael Beasley which wouldn't have Kansas State dropping all of the big games on their schedule. Maybe it wouldn't take anything more than passing the ball! and the team not standing around watching him. This one is in MSG as part of the Jimmy V Classic.
MRI Predicts: Notre Dame Confidence Factor: 70.57%

MRI #22 Michigan State at Bradley: I know what I said about the Big Ten schedules this season, but at least Michigan State is going on the road for some of these games. The Carver Arena is not an easy place to play for the visiting team. I am sure my brother will be one of the few in green there tonight. Peoria isn't necessarily a mecca for Big Ten graduates. And good luck to Bradley who is off to a nice start after an early stumble against Illinois-Chicago. The Braves may be a force in the Missouri Valley this season, and I can't wait until they play Southern Illinois.
MRI Predicts: Michigan State Confidence Factor: 54.72%

USC vs. MRI #7 Memphis: Freshman standoff tonight: Derrick Rose against OJ Mayo. Rose has more around him, and I don't see this one being close. Look folks, I know OJ Mayo is good, but USC isn't really the #23 team in the country (more like #64 like in the MRI). They can't really claim that rating until either the teams they beat live up to their expectations, or they get a real big name win under their belts. Call me when they either win tonight or against Stanford.
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence Factor: 70.57%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 8 -11
This Season: 226 - 93, 70.85%
All Time: 11913 - 4695, 71.73%

Posted by bmiraski at 3:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 30, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/30/07

Last night was a bad night for the Colonial conference and any hopes they might have had for two bids from the league. While it could still happen, I think the only team with a reasonable shot at an at-large bid is George Mason, should they fail to get the automatic bid.

Why the pessimism? Virginia Commonwealth, the only other team in the Colonial with the name, schedule, or team, to run with the big boys come March went down to annual MEAC favorite, Hampton. The MEAC is currently the 30th ranked conference in the MRI. While Hampton is good, a team competing in the Colonial, with a chance to win the conference should not be losing to them. VCU already has lost their high profile games (Arkansas, Miami). This will just go down as another bad loss even if Hampton comes out of its conference. The only way to redeem this is to somehow beat Maryland on Sunday, something not so likely now.

More trouble? Towson goes down to Navy. Not that this isn't expected. Towson is growing in the Colonial and never really transitioned well into the bigger and tougher league. It was a big fish in the America East before the shift of Drexel, Delaware, Hofstra, Northeastern, and Towson, to the Colonial. Now, it is struggling to keep up.

Last, the way Drexel lost to George Mason. In order to prove your league deserves a second big, especially for those leagues right on the cusp, is to show that teams can compete with the top teams in the conference, and that it is not just a one team show. Drexel lost to George Mason last night, 85-38. 47 points was a new record for a win by George Mason over a conference opponent. The worst part of this is that Drexel was supposed to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the conference. When your upper tier teams lose this badly, that leaves you scraping for a single bid.

The best thing that could happen to the Colonial now is that George Mason loses in the finals of the conference tournament, still a few months away. No other teams seems to want to prove itself to be on the same level.

Duquesne vs. Cal State Northridge in Des Moines, IA: Duquesne hasn't had the hardest schedule yet, but undefeated they are. I think it is just nice to see them coming back from the shooting that marred last season. While I don't know if the Dukes can seriously challenge Xavier for the conference crown, winning early could give them momentum that would see them playing in March for the first time since 1977. A big reason for the early fire has been their shooting close to 50% from the field, a monster number over the first five games. Tonight's game against Cal State Northridge sees them facing another team with no losses. The loser of this game will have a major effect on the MRI scores of a number of teams (based on the formulas for MOV used). The MRI sees this one going to the Dukes.
MRI Predicts: Duquesne Confidence Factor: 66.54%

Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Marquette: Showdown in Milwaukee. The Panthers aren't quite the same since Bruce Pearl left for Tennessee. However, if they can stay in the game, I wouldn't rule out the crowd turning to support UW-M since they will only be a little down the road from their own friendly confines. This is a great game for the Milwaukee area (along with the Marquette rivalry against Wisconsin). I don't see this one being at all close despite my personal feelings on Marquette. The MRI agrees with me.
MRI Predicts: Marquette Confidence Factor: 82.65%

Washington State at Baylor: To close, another of the Big XII - PAC-10 Hardcourt series games. You wouldn't know it by their work in football, but Baylor can play basketball. It didn't help that they had they little scandal that kept their team from playing non-conference games two years ago. That was a team (prior to their internal issues) which was thought of as a dark horse contender for the league title. However, not being able to sharpen your skills against some of the weaker teams in Division I is a recipe for disaster when it comes to the Big XII. Is this the year they finally turn it around in the weaker Big XII? Perhaps. Their stats are still a little too mediocre against less than stellar competition though to take a challenge seriously. Washington State is expected to be among the contenders for the PAC-10 crown, and this year more than last, I think they finally have a team worth looking at seriously not only in the conference but nationwide. I have never been a style of the Bennett teams, either Tony (WSU's coach now), or his father Dick (previous WSU coach and former coach at Wisconsin). I don't like teams that scrape their way defensively and have to eek out wins. It doesn't make for good basketball. It makes for NBA-lite teams. And it doesn't translate well into the MRI. However, the hot shooting of Derrick Low and his back court mates have me a little more optimistic about the Cougars this year. The MRI likes this one to be close, but Baylor will probably have a hard time hanging with their West coast opponent.
MRI Predicts: Washington State Confidence Factor: 51.13%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 13 - 7
This Season: 119 - 31, 79.33%
All Time: 11806 - 4633, 71.82%

Posted by bmiraski at 1:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 29, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/29/07

The Big Ten couldn't shock the world last night by coming within a single game of the ACC. The final tally was 8 - 3 in favor of that league on the East coast. Ohio State looked very flat against North Carolina. Illinois couldn't pull off the same magic that they had earlier this year, and Michigan, the favorite in their game, was not playing like one in the second half.

So, once again, the ACC can lock the trophy up in their office. Is this another sign that the Big Ten is down? Maybe, but it is not a result that has ever been different, so it is hard to tell. Perhaps more telling is that the only games that the Big Ten won were by the two favorites for the conference title and one against what looks like the worst team in the ACC. No game matching middle of the conference teams went to the Big Ten, which could be a big headache for the league when it comes to those last bubble teams into the NCAA.

Time to move on to the rest of the country, where we are seeing some of the mid-major teams match up tonight. What teams can make a statement and continue towards a chance at a coveted at-large bid.

Drexel at George Mason: The Patriots still have a little of the team left that went to the Final Four two years ago. While they aren't overall as strong as that season, they have gotten out to a 5-1 record on the back of some strong shooting. They have scored wins over South Carolina and Kansas State already this season, and their single loss was against Villanova by 8. Drexel's resume isn't quite as strong, and they have some big losses from last season which was passed over for the tournament. Their single loss was against Virginia, which is nothing to be ashamed of this season. We all saw what they did to Northwestern. Still, Drexel is only a dark horse this year in the Colonial while George Mason is expected to push Virginia Commonwealth for the title. Tonight goes to the Patriots.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence Factor: 78.90%

Wichita State at Appalachian State: I know Wichita State was not supposed to contend for the Missouri Valley title this season, but they are playing stronger than expected. And I don't know if it is a hangover from the football craze around Appalachian State, but somehow, Wichita State is the underdog here. I know that the home team in the NCAA wins about 2/3 of the time, but a team from the MVC should not be an underdog to a team from the Southern conference, unless that team is named Davidson. This is going to come down to which team's forwards play the best, although guard PJ Couisnard could tip the scales in the Wichita State's favor overall.
MRI Predicts: Wichita State Confidence Factor: 54.60%

Gonzaga at St. Joseph's: Gonzaga is back, although a lot of people would contend they never left. Last season was a down year for the Zags, but so far this season, it seems that they have returned to the team they were over the last decade. I don't believe that we will see any top 10 rankings this season, but expect a highly ranked team all year. Freshman Austin Daye is currently the leading scorer and rebounder, which could lead to trick defenses to take him out of the game. It will be interesting to see what St. Joe's will do tonight to counter him. Phil Martelli can prepare for almost everything, so count on this to be closer than you would expect.
MRI Predicts: Gonzaga Confidence Factor: 59.31%

Oklahoma at USC: We will close on a major conference game, one of the poorly advertised and loosely organized Big XII - PAC-10 Hardcourt Series. USC's OJ Mayo may be a scoring machine, but he is also a turnover magnet. This is what happens with freshmen, especially those which are the focal point of an offense. Maybe USC can overcome that over the course of the season (although their MRI score will still hurt because of it). However, from game to game, this will continue to be a factor in whatever matchup they face. The one on one contest tonight between Mayo and Oklahoma's freshmen Blake Griffin could show a lot. Griffin leads the Sooners in steals, and also scoring and rebounds. USC has had the tougher schedule so far (and coming up), but Oklahoma has had more consistent play, despite being fairly young overall. The MRI likes Oklahoma, but USC could also easily take this or blow out the Sooners.
MRI Predicts: Oklahoma Confidence Factor: 52.43%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 49 - 18
This Season: 106 - 24, 81.54%
All Time: 11793 - 4626, 71.83%

Posted by bmiraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 28, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/28/07

The ACC took a 5-1 lead last night, losing only the Indiana - Georgia Tech game, which almost looked like it was going to go to the Yellow Jackets, if it weren't for Eric Gordon. Noise out of the Hoosier faithful doesn't like the look of the team right now, even if they are winning. There is too much standing around and watching Gordon do his thing. Personally, the offense looks pretty balanced to me, although there is a little bit of the "Let's see if Eric can do it" first before others look for their shots.

That means the ACC needs just a single game tonight to win what has become their annual thrashing of the Big Ten in this contest. I am not exactly sure what they could do the change the format and perhaps change this trend. Maybe force all of the teams to play two games, one on the road and one at home? That would eliminate what is seen as the ACC always getting the "close games" at home, since the return game when it occurs the next year, always seems to happen during a down year for the Big Ten team in question. I am not sure that teams would be willing to give two non-conference games to a format like this. While it is a good spectacle for a single game and a three day run, I don't know if the attention could be maintained over a full week.

But before we give this year to the ACC, they still have to win one of the 5 games tonight. Let's look at the schedule this evening.

North Carolina at Ohio State: If four starters off the Ohio State team from last season weren't gone, then this would have been one of the premier games on the slate. That isn't what happened. However, Ohio State is still playing well. They were more than their starting line-up last season. They still weren't North Carolina. North Carolina returns almost everyone and is the strong favorite to win the ACC and at least get to the Final Four. This will be their first real test of the season. The MRI doesn't yet have North Carolina in the elite and Ohio State is just outside the top 25. The computer backs the Buckeyes, but then again, it liked Wisconsin last night.
MRI Predicts: Ohio State Confidence Factor: 52.55%

Illinois at Maryland: I spoke about the woes of Maryland this morning. Outside of the single game against Duke, Illinois has actually looked pretty good. They are a wild card in this year's Big Ten. They could be anywhere from a contender to a 7th place finish in the league which by all accounts is down. This will be a big win for Illinois if they can pull it off. Obviously the big key for the Illini will be turnovers, the one thing that they can definitely push the Terrapins on. I wonder if Illinois can rebound with the Maryland team, but this is another one that the MRI likes the Big Ten winning.
MRI Predicts: Illinois Confidence Factor: 54.54%

North Carolina State at Michigan State: Michigan State is the class of the Big Ten. North Carolina State is back to being a contender in the ACC. This is one of the best games in the series. Michigan State better win it if they want to continue to be seen as the favorite in the conference. Michigan State gets this one based on their board advantage and being at home.
MRI Predicts: Michigan State Confidence Factor: 78.79%

Boston College at Michigan: John Beilein is still building Michigan back into his unique style. Somehow that rebuild has him as a 3 point favorite tonight in Vegas against Boston College. No, this isn't the Boston College team of last season, but there is no reason to believe that Michigan is already back, is it? The MRI says, not so fast. If the computer is right, this game will clinch the ACC the tournament.
MRI Predicts: Boston College Confidence Factor: 50.92%

Virginia Tech at Penn State: Penn State is starting to turn things around. They should at least be out of the basement in the Big Ten this season. The question will be if Virginia Tech can do the same. This game is really a toss up in every sense. I can't imagine that the tournament will come down to who wins this game, but given the way the MRI is picking the game this season and the picks for today, it might.
MRI Predicts: Penn State Confidence Factor: 54.54%

So given these picks, the ACC should be a little scared tonight, but should win the tournament 6-5. Something in my gut tells me that it will be a little bigger spread than that, but beware the computer.

One last game just like yesterday (a winner by the way).

Missouri at Arkansas: I know I ripped a little on Missouri before, but they are off to a great start and their sole loss was to a Michigan State team that they really gave everything to before losing. And since they beat Maryland by 14, you have to give them at least a "very good" win on their resume along with the "good" loss to the Spartans. The rest of their schedule hasn't been much, but tonight can change things. Arkansas already has a win over one of the good mid-major teams this season, Virginia Commonwealth, but they also have a loss to Providence (a team with a similar resume to Missouri right now). The computer is going with Missouri to take this one on the road.
MRI Predicts: Missouri Confidence Factor: 52.55%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 38 - 3
This Season: 57 - 6, 90.48%
All Time: 11744 - 4608, 71.82%

Posted by bmiraski at 3:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 27, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/27/07

With the release of the new basketball MRI rankings, it is also time to start the MRI's picking of games for the season. It is quite a record to stand up to. The MRI has over the course of time, predicted 71.77% of games. That isn't just in 100 games. That is over 16000 games that the MRI has looked at.

Now, there is a line of accuracy, and I can tell you that when teams are evenly matched (by the MRI of course), it gets it right about 51% of the time. As the teams are further apart, the MRI does better and better. In all the years, there has only been one super upset.

Fittingly, that was Clemson losing at home to Elon.

What should we be looking for tonight? Why, the major kickoff of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. I wouldn't expect things to change much this year. The ACC should still easily win the event, now bloated to 11 games. They got off to a good start with middle of the pack Wake Forest easily taking down Iowa. There are a few very interesting games left in the tournament. Let's see what the MRI says about the projected winners tonight.

Georgia Tech at Indiana: Let's see what Indiana's Eric Gordon can do tonight against a real defense (no slight to Xavier). Indiana needs to bounce back from the loss to the A-10's likely champion and grab what could be a "good" win come tournament time. It is also likely one of the few wins that the Big Ten can get in the conference contest.
MRI Predicts: Indiana Confidence Factor: 82.67%

Minnesota at Florida State: Tubby Smith is winning with less than the best talent since moving North. However, the best win was against an Iowa State team which was only possibly a sleeper in the Big XII. They don't really have anything to write home about yet. Florida State is expected to actually be in the top half of the ACC again this year, and back to the NCAA tournament. A win over Florida, even if Florida isn't Florida is a big step. Losses to Cleveland State and South Florida are not. Time to get back in the hunt by beating another team they are expected to beat.
MRI Predicts: Florida State Confidence Factor: 50.89%

Wisconsin at Duke: Biggest thing to watch tonight is how Duke deals with the first real big man that they have seen. It is seen as their only weakness, and something that will hold them back against bigger teams like North Carolina or even Maryland. The MRI thinks it is even going to hold them back against Wisconsin. I am not too sure, but we will see tonight. I will be watching.
MRI Predicts: Wisconsin Confidence Factor: 50.89%

Purdue at Clemson: Clemson... ah, Clemson. You know we love you here at the MRI. We even named the season collapse after you. Good thing you are at home here, or you would not be the MRI's pick.
MRI Predicts: Clemson Confidence Factor: 70.67%

Northwestern at Virginia: OK, this is Northwestern and Virginia looks good as I mentioned in the first MRI rankings of the season. This one shouldn't even be close.
MRI Predicts: Clemson Confidence Factor: 93.95%

One more game to watch tonight. Oral Roberts is stepping up to play Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane play in the Memphis+11 conference, but this could still be a very good win for an Oral Roberts team contending for the Summit conference title (formerly the Mid-Con). Tulsa won't be contending for anything, but an Oral Roberts win here would give them a nice victory that could control some of the seeding decisions come NCAA tournament time. And this is just a start. ORU also has Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma State still on their schedule. Starting small but getting bigger, a few wins now could go a long way in March.
MRI Predicts: Oral Roberts Confidence Factor: 50.89%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 19 - 3
This Season: 19 - 3, 86.36%
All Time: 11706 - 4605, 71.77%

Posted by bmiraski at 12:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 3, 2006

The National Championship, April 3rd, 2006

You can't blame the winners for making the games boring. If the losing team can't produce enough excitement to counter what the winning teams are doing, there is nothing that the top teams can do. So, don't blame UCLA and Florida for the lack of excitement generated by LSU and George Mason, respectively.

But, if all holds true, everything should be different tonight. A battle of wills is going to be waged on the court and the stronger team in terms of keeping control and momentum should hold serve.

Keys to tonight's game for UCLA:

Control the tempo: Don't let Florida consistently run the ball up court.

Rebound, rebound, rebound: One of the keys to Florida's victories have been their ability to get second chance shots consistently. UCLA needs to fight Florida on the glass better and hold them to one shot.

Shoot over 40%: No secret here. Florida has been brutal on defense for the tournament. If UCLA can crack the 40% barrier, it means they are getting good guard contribution outside the paint. While they will still need to challenge the big men on the interior, without a consistent outlet for Hollins and Mbah a Moute when they get in trouble, UCLA will sink as fast as George Mason did.

Keys for Florida:

Run: It worked on Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Get the big men for UCLA moving and force them to get back on defense quickly to help guard the boards and the break. Hollins and Mata can move, but past those two, the bench thins considerably for the Bruins. Trying to combat Noah, Horford, and the rest of the Florida front line could be trouble if they are worn down.

Exploit the three point line: Lee Humphrey was deadly from beyond the arc in the second half against George Mason. If he or Brewer can hit consistently, Florida can open a big lead early which will be difficult for the methodical offense of UCLA to come back against. Even if they are missing, the size and depth of the big men should allow them second chance points, provided that they are there to rebound. Just the threat should be enough to open up the inside just a little bit more for Noah.

Hold onto the ball: Turnovers have been happening for the Gators, but they haven't really affected them yet. The story in most of the games has been that they controlled the tempo, so losing the ball here and there usually was able to wash out in the extra possessions that the increased pace of the generated. UCLA is not going to speed through the game like George Mason tried to against Florida. The Gators need to control the ball longer, and not let their big men, especially Noah, lose them momentum by fumbling the ball away or taking too many steps.

Florida (3) vs. UCLA (2)
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 67.78%

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April 1, 2006

The Final Four, April 1st, 2006

Sitting in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks are celebrating a second straight victory in the NIT. And while they are celebrating, the bigger championship is still to be decided. Playing for that championship are two teams that South Carolina knows well, LSU and Florida, currently seen as possible favorites for a finals rematch.

What does the MRI say about the Final Four?

George Mason(11) vs. Florida(3) -
For the casual fan, having George Mason in the Final Four is a surprise. Not so if anyone watched the preseason NIT earlier this year. Those fans remember the Drexel Dragons pushing Duke for 35 minutes before falling to the Blue Devils. Then the Dragons almost pulled off the upset against UCLA before mental errors in the final minute let the Bruins take the game. Drexel was predicted to finish in the bottom half of the Colonial conference, and they did. So, why should it be any surprise that the winner of the Colonial Conference, a conference that sported four twenty game winners, two of the final eight in the NIT and two bids in the NCAA tournament for the first time in over twenty years, should be able to compete at the top of its game?

Competing at the top of their game is exactly what George Mason will need to do if they want to continue their amazing run. The Gators have one of the deepest front lines in the game. Of course, so did Connecticut, the team that George Mason surprised to make its first Final Four appearance. But while Connecticut big men are deep, they don't run the floor like Florida. They don't have the ball handling skills like Florida. And they definitely don't have the tandem of Joakim Noah and Al Horford. The two were the keys to Florida's victory of Villanova to reach the Final Four and they will be the main key to Florida reaching Monday's championship game.

Noah and Horford have not only the post game, but they are able to handle the ball and pass as good as most guards in the league. The two will need to also step up their defense against Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Noah has been a consistent shot blocker all tournament long and his skills against Lewis and Thomas will both be pressed to score inside against him. Horford will provide the tough second defensive option inside to truly clog the middle and force the Patriot guards like Tony Skinn to beat them.

On the offensive side, Florida will also need a big contribution on the outside from Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey. Humphrey hits some big threes for the Gators down the stretch against Villanova and will be needed against the tough George Mason defense.

While the country is starting to come over to the George Mason side, including picking them second behind LSU for the championship, there is just too much athleticism on Florida to believe that the Patriots can pull off another upset. Of course, that is what everyone was saying back when George Mason was set to go against Connecticut. And we all know what happened there. The Florida Gators are turning forward the clock to midnight, turning Cinderella's magic ride back into a pumpkin.
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 79.00%

LSU(4) vs. UCLA(2) -
Many of the tournament games have been decided inside, especially those when LSU has been involved. Other than a last second shot which they needed to beat Texas A&M, LSU hasn't needed to worry too much about their guard play. Instead they have been living inside on the play of Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas. With Thomas jumping to the rafters and Davis holding off the lane, no one has been able to move inside against the Tigers.

So what makes the game against UCLA any different? It could be the play of Ryan Hollins, the seven foot tall center for the Bruins that has been holding off the middle all tournament long for them. Or maybe forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, the hero of the Gonzaga game. He certainly hasn't looked like a freshman throughout their four games to this point.

Chances are that the inside games of both of these teams are so evenly matched that the guard play is what will matter.

That is where UCLA should worry. They have been coming off some terrible shooting games when the ball has been more than two feet away from the rim. Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo might finally have to start hitting shots. Especially Afflalo, the Bruins' leading scorer this season who has been held in check for most of the tournament. Memphis's poor shooting was certainly talked about a lot, but the winners always get to write the history books. That is why a lot of people won't remember how poorly UCLA shot from the field and the free throw line in what was a closer than needed game between the two tops seeds in the Oakland Region.

You might think this is a good sign for LSU, but they haven't really needed top shooting from their guards in their games either.

So this may come down to the defense that UCLA and LSU put on the court and anything can happen. Garrett Temple's play against both Duke and Texas should be enough to have everyone believing in the Tigers but no one should be forgetting Farmar and the rest of the Bruins who shut down both Gonzaga and Memphis.

This game can go either way, and as the night cap, should be a fitting lead-in to the final game on Monday night.
MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 59.98%

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February 18, 2006

Bracket Busters, Part 3

The final five games of the Bracket Buster weekend feature some of the best chances for a big run come tournament time. What does the MRI say about the evening run of games?

Louisiana Tech(89) at Southern Illinois(55)
Louisiana Tech has come from nowhere to suddenly be close to the top in the WAC, behind only Nevada. Three losses in their last five games though have the Bulldogs wondering if they can compete. Two of those losses have come against the conference leader and in a small conference, it won't be long before they see them in the conference tournament. If Louisiana Tech can't pull off a win in a potential third meeting, they will most likely be going to the NIT. Southern Illinois still has a chance to cash in on their tournament dreams. As we have seen, the MVC has a great shot at multiple bids this year and Southern Illinois is near the top of the list for that honor. The Salukis though are currently struggling on the court and in the MRI. They have, like Louisiana Tech, lost three of their last five, including their last against Bradley, a team that has quickly been coming on in the Valley. Southern Illinois needs this win to keep them in the running and avoid being passed or replaced by another Valley team for that dance bid. The latest MRI projection had Southern Illinois as one of the last teams in the tournament and there is no room for more slips like that at this point in the season.
MRI Predicts: Southern Illinois Confidence factor: 79.13%
MRI Result: Loss

George Mason(15) at Wichita State(28)
Both of these teams should be going to the tournament no matter what happens to them in their conference tournaments, at least if I had my way. George Mason and Wichita State are currently leading their respective conferences and both those conferences have definitely shown that they can compete this year. The Colonial entry in this game has been flying through their conference schedule. They haven't lost since late January and their final two games in the conference should be wins for the Patriots. George Mason will most likely be matching up against UNC-Wilmington at the end of the Colonial tournament and both of those teams should be dancing. Another win against a projected tournament team can only make that more secure. All five starters for the Patriots score in double figures and four of those are shooting 45% or better. Senior forward Jai Lewis leads that crowd and will probably get at least one chance to alley-oop from Tony Skinn in this game. While George Mason has been dominating in the Colonial, Wichita State has been scrapping away in the MVC. The Shockers have four losses in the conference and all of those have come against the other teams that are projected as going to the tournament, the only one of the contenders that can say that. Wichita State is led by senior Paul Miller, both on the the scoreboard and the back boards. He will have a great fight inside against Lewis. This is the one game on Saturday that you can not afford to miss if you want your bracket to look correct in March. Expect the tournament committee to be watching for some seeding recommendations.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence factor: 51.76%
MRI Result: Win

Samford(105) at Ohio(128)
Samford is currently three games behind Murray State for the Ohio Valley lead and barring an upset will not be dancing in March. Ohio was expected to repeat this year in the MAC and that will not happen either at this point. The leading scorer for Samford, Robert Merritt, is shooting close to 50% from three point range so look for him to be deadly from outside. Leon Williams and Mychal Green should tag team the scoring for the Ohio Bobcats.
MRI Predicts: Ohio Confidence factor: 51.43%
MRI Result: Win

Northwestern State(103) at Utah State(69)
As recently as last week, the MRI is still projecting the Southland leader, Northwestern State, as a #16 seed in the tournament. That is if the Demons can make it. This game could go a long way towards improving that seed should they pull the upset against Utah State. The Demons are led in scoring by Clifton Lee, averaging over 17 points per game. They also have four players who average more than a steal a game, including Tyronn Mitchell at 2.2, so Utah State will have to concentrate on holding onto the ball better than they have been known to do. Utah State is caught in their own battle with Nevada and Louisiana Tech in the WAC, since moving from the the Big West conference this season. During their time in the Big West, Utah State was consistently one of the teams that the MRI rated highly come tournament time. They were the perfect example of a team that was good enough to move up in conference and doing so has been tough but the Aggies have proven they are up to the challenge. There is still a shot for Utah State to make the tournament as an at-large, but they definitely need to win this game and a few in their conference tournament to do that. Look for a few rejections in this game as Nate Harris, the co-leader in scoring for the Aggies, averages 0.9 blocks and his inside partner Cass Matheus averages 1.6.
MRI Predicts: Utah State Confidence factor: 79.13%
MRI Result: Win

Fresno State(162) at Creighton(46)
Far be it for me to criticize the ESPN programming gurus, but placing this game at midnight Eastern time might not have been so kind to the home team. An 11 PM start in Nebraska coupled with playing a West Coast team could definitely give some advantage to the visiting squad. Well, it isn't like Creighton hasn't been the underdog before. The Bluejays should be assured of their place in the tournament at this point but two straight losses were not on the plan going into this game. I have a sneaky suspicion that the selection committee is looking for any reason to reduce the number of teams from the MVC going to the tournament. A loss here for their third straight will move Creighton from "In" to "On the Bubble" once again. Look for Anthony Tolliver to be tough inside for the Jays and give the smaller, faster Bulldog team a tough time. Fresno State won't be going anywhere in March thanks to sanctions they placed on themselves. They are instead playing for pride here, including knowing that they may have stopped one of the mid-major darlings from going to the dance.
MRI Predicts: Creighton Confidence factor: 92.72%
MRI Result: Win

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Bracket Busters, Part 2

There are 11 more games on the slate for Bracket Buster weekend. The MRI is encouraged by a great record after the first night so here are more predictions for the beginning part of the day.

Bucknell(31) at Northern Iowa(30)
Both of these teams look like they have their place in the tournament secure, but it is never too late to get one more quality win added to their resume. Bucknell hasn't slowed down since their shocking upset of Kansas in the first round of last year's tournament and is currently one of the last undefeated teams in conference play. Wins against Syracuse, DePaul, and St. Joseph's, have helped to increase their tournament resume. The Bison are the first team from their conference to be ranked and look to improve that number next to their name with a win against the Panthers. Northern Iowa is locked in a tough battle in the Missouri Valley. After being ranked themselves earlier this year, they have dropped 3 of 5 in the conference, including two tough ones in a row against Missouri State and Indiana State. The Panthers could use this game to stop the slide and lead them into their final two conference games before what should be a very interesting MVC tournament.
MRI Predicts: Northern Iowa Confidence factor: 59.88%
MRI Result: Win

Buffalo(112) at Iona(49)
Here is another game where one of the teams didn't fair as well lately as they should have. Buffalo has lost five of their last six, including three against the co-leaders of the MAC West, Akron and Kent State. As a result, Buffalo is no longer going to be jumping in as a second bid from the MAC, though the chances were slim in the first place. They will have their hands full yet again with Iona, the team that right now is leading the other MAC, the MAAC. The Gaels haven't run away with the conference this year like they have in years past and there is still a chance for some upsets out there in the conference tournament for them. Their leading scorer, Steve Burtt throws in 24.6 points per game, almost J.J. Redick-like numbers, and will be interesting to watch if you tune in on-line. Neither team is going to steal any bid away from the big boys come March, but Iona, should they make the tournament, could cause some fits.
MRI Predicts: Iona Confidence factor: 82.86%
MRI Result: Win

Butler(65) at Kent State(51)
If you want two teams with a lot to prove, here you go. Butler has slowly come back twice after bad starts this season. They began their run 2-3 and finished their non-conference run at 7-5. Then conference season began and suddenly, the Bulldogs were near the bottom of the conference after another 2-3 start. Things have changed though and Butler has climbed to within a half game of league leading Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Horizon league doesn't figure to get two bids, but that doesn't mean that Butler can't turn some heads and get people thinking with a good performance here. Kent State, meanwhile, is trapped in its own race atop its conference and right now, the MRI expects them to take home the MAC trophy. They are going to need it to make the NCAA tournament since, as we have talked about, the MAC is only going to get one. Kent State didn't fair very well outside of conference this season and could use a win against another quality team before March.
MRI Predicts: Kent State Confidence factor: 72.42%
MRI Result: Win

Missouri State(19) at Wisconsin-Milwaukee(39)
The MRI loves Missouri State. They had a Top 5 start in the MRI and have hung in or near the Top 25 ever since that. Playing in the Missouri Valley has also been good to them, facing them against high quality opponents night after night. While they aren't the tops in the conference, they are the current MRI leader and are slowly getting noticed by the rest of the world. Going into the game, a number of projections other than the MRI have the Bears on the outside looking in at this point, but just barely. As a result, a win against a team projected in the tournament from outside their conference could really help. The Bears are the MRI's surprise pick in March, so now it is just a matter of them getting there. Meanwhile, Wisconsin-Milwaukee needs this win for other reasons. They are still the leaders in the their conference, but they have fallen back to the pack lately after three losses in their last five. They have only one conference game remaining after their bracket buster game and a win could help them start a streak as they head into the conference tournament. The Panthers proved themselves well last March and will be looking to surprise again. Last year's version did its damage after finishing at 50 in the regular season MRI. If this year's mark is any indication, the surprise might be even bigger this year.
MRI Predicts: Missouri State Confidence factor: 51.76%
MRI Result: Win

Northern Arizona(132) at Western Kentucky(47)
Every time that Northern Arizona is brought up, I check the MRI. And the MRI still tells me that they lag behind conference foe Montana. So, do I smell an upset brewing in the conference tournament? Possibly. Montana had the more impressive non-conference wins, including one against Stanford, while Northern Arizona limped into conference season. And conference season has been a struggle itself. All the Lumberjack wins have been by ten or less points, so they haven't blow anyone out of the gym. That is one reason why their game today against the Hilltoppers might be even more difficult. Other than South Alabama, Western Kentucky has had no real competition in the Sun Belt so far this year. Sure, they had that one game like everyone where you just don't show up mentally, and that stopped them from being perfect in the conference so far. Otherwise, the Hilltoppers are rolling so fast, they could roll their bus right into a first round tournament location. Western Kentucky is strong on the boards but will need to hold on to the ball a little better than they have. A win here could improve the Western Kentucky seeding should they hold true to form and make the NCAA tournament.
MRI Predicts: Western Kentucky Confidence factor: 86.02%
MRI Result: Win

Marist(94) at Old Dominion(67)
Marist has slowly been pulling themselves back into the conference race in the MAAC after a painful start with losses against both the teams ahead of them in the standings. They have gotten their revenge, winning both the rematches and now sit in third as the conference tournament looms. While they are not going to do any bracket busting by stealing a big, the Red Foxes can continue their roll into the conference tournament with a win against a strong team from one of the top mid-major conferences. Look for junior Jared Jordan to make a lot of plays on the floor. He leads the team with an average of two steals and 8.6 assists per game. He also leads the team in scoring. If Marist makes the tournament, he will certainly be a star. Old Dominion was projected to be leading the Colonial conference and leading the charge for two bids from that league. Things haven't gone quite so well for the Monarchs and they have struggled into 4th in a very tough league. Their only shot at the tournament is to run through the Colonial tournament and that will not be easy with the way that George Mason and UNC-Wilmington are playing. The Monarchs need this win to keep focused and their size advantage should give them the advantage they need.
MRI Predicts: Old Dominion Confidence factor: 73.64%
MRI Result: Win

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February 17, 2006

Bracket Busters, Part 1

With only 20 minutes until tip-off in two of the all important Bracket Buster games, the MRI is going to take a shot at projecting the winners early.

Albany(123) vs. Virginia Commonwealth(82)
With Virginia Commonwealth struggling, losing three of four, and Albany leading one of the lowest rated conferences in the league, there may not be much bracket busting for either of these teams. Albany is the leader in the America East conference and is the current projected winner of the conference tournament by the MRI. That still slots them in one of the four #16 seeds though in the MRI's latest tournament projection. As a result, their only hope to bust a bracket is to do something that has never been done before, beat a #1 seed in the first round. VCU's road to the tournament is going to have to be through the conference tournament and right now, no one looks good enough to beat either UNC-Wilmington or George Mason. With both those teams currently projected as "IN" the tournament by the MRI, maybe all VCU can do is knock one of them out.
MRI Predicts: Virginia Commonwealth Confidence factor: 79.13%
MRI Result: Win

Akron(62) vs. Nevada(44)
Nevada's stumbles in mid-January kept them from running away with the WAC title and have left them sitting on the bubble for an at-large bid. That was something that was not expected from Nick Fazekas and the rest of the Wolfpack at the beginning of the season when they were ranked. Now, they face an surging Akron team and a loss here could seriously jeopardize at-large hopes for coach Mark Fox and Nevada should they fail to win the WAC tournament. Akron is currently tied in the standings with MRI conference leader Kent State in the difficult MAC East. Unfortunately for the Zips, the Western side of the conference hasn't held up their end of the bargain this year and it looks to be a one-bid league. Tonight's match-up certainly has them in the role of spoiler though some television exposure for the team could have everyone talking about leading scorer and rebounder Romeo Travis should the Zips get through the MAC.
MRI Predicts: Nevada Confidence factor: 72.42%
MRI Result: Win

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