MRISports.com: Games to Watch Archives

December 28, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/28/07

It has been over a week since the last Games to Watch article. That week was one that saw the downing of a number of our top teams in their first losses of the season.

Fridays don't normally bring us much in terms of Games to Watch, and likely won't have us losing any undefeateds, but it does have some interesting games on tap.

Let's check out what exactly those might be.

Delaware State at MRI #20 Xavier: Xavier has had a rough stretch lately (losses to Tennessee and a big MOV loss to Arizona State) and has fallen from their #1 MRI spot all the way to #20. Facing Delaware State should be a remedy to what ails them.
MRI Predicts: Xavier Confidence Factor: 94.22%

St. Joseph's at Siena: Two teams which could emerge as contenders in their conferences. St. Joe's has the benefit of the Atlantic 10 being slightly stronger and potentially up for multiple bids. They would still have to overcome a rocky start to the season, but conference season has a way of separating the best teams from the pack. Siena doesn't have any the advantage of the stronger league. That makes this all the more important for the Saints to win at home.
MRI Predicts: Siena Confidence Factor: 70.76%

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:55 AM | Comments (0)

December 20, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/20/07

Maybe I should put a call out to Wofford in every edition of Games to Watch when they play. The Terriers came through last night with one of the three biggest numerical upsets of the year so far in the MRI by beating Purdue at in West Lafayette. It was a game that went back and forth throughout the night. Two big reasons for the success of Wofford was their shooting from beyond the arc, and staying close on the rebounding margin. The win was only Wofford's second Division 1 victory of the season.

Ohio also came through on the road in Hawaii. The game was close as the numbers from the MRI thought it would be. If only the MRI had been correct on that game. Overall, still a good night for the MRI. Let's look at tonight with a slightly smaller slate of games.

DePaul vs. MRI #19 Mississippi in Puerto Rico: Mississippi is on the road in Puerto Rico, and maybe that will be the turning point in their season so far. They seemed to have stalled in the MRI, not able to make up much ground and climb the rankings, but still holding onto the numbers which make them the best team in the SEC. Will facing a team from a BCS conference for the first time this season make a difference and give the Rebs their first loss? The MRI seems to think it is unlikely.
MRI Predicts: Mississippi Confidence Factor: 78.71%

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

December 19, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/19/07

Things basically went as planned last night, with only five losses for the MRI out of 32 games. The biggest shocker was South Carolina Upstate getting their first Division 1 win of the season. Other than that, the most surprising victory might have been Mount St. Mary's taking out Winthrop. Given the way things have gone for Winthrop and Davidson this season, maybe we are seeing a rotation of the powers at the low major level.

Big slate of games tonight. Let's see where the MRI stands.

MRI #11 Memphis at Cincinnati: Remember when this was one of the biggest games in Conference USA? Not anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if Memphis won by about 30.
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence Factor: 70.69%

Wofford at Purdue: Purdue might also win this game by 30. If you want a sleeper surprise team in the early going this season it might be the Boilermakers. It is too bad they will beat up on the MRI's mascot team tonight.
MRI Predicts: Purdue Confidence Factor: 92.03%

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:50 AM | Comments (0)

December 18, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/18/07

Monday night didn't bring us much to watch, hence the lack of a Games to Watch last night. The biggest news in the MRI world came in two games last night.

Duke easily brought down Albany. That win moved them back to the #2 spot in the MRI. I mentioned in yesterday's ratings release that Duke's strength over the early part of the season was a major reason that they were still in the top 5 after not playing for an entire week. Last night served almost as a scrimmage for Thursday's big game against Pittsburgh. Duke currently has a 59.15% chance of winning that game, at the "neutral" site of Madison Square Garden. I quote neutral because Duke has a ridiculous record at MSG, which could work in their favor.

The second game of interest in the MRI last night was the loss by the Southland's Texas Arlington to TCU. The loss was the first of the year for UT-Arlington and dropped them from #46 to #59 in the MRI. That doesn't seem like much, but UT-Arlington needed every victory they could prior to conference season beginning. Positioning themselves higher in the MRI and other statistical rankings was almost the only way that the team could remain on the radar for an at large bid come March. It is a possibility that UT-Arlington could get back in the mix, but the bottom half of the conference will definitely pull down the Mavericks as they continue to play out the season (and likely win a majority of the games).

There remain 13 teams without a loss this season, and there are still 13 teams without a Division 1 victory.

On to tonight:

Southern Illinois at Western Michigan: Another test for Southern Illinois. I am not sure what to think at this point about the Salukis given they crazy season to date. The win over St. Mary's was impressive, and could have Southern Illinois back on track. The game at Western Michigan tonight is a big deal to both teams. The MRI slightly leans toward the Salukis on the road.
MRI Predicts: Southern Illinois Confidence Factor: 52.26%

Continue reading "Games To Watch - 12/18/07"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:15 PM | Comments (0)

December 14, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/14/07

Neither of the undefeateds went down last night. Winthrop couldn't pull off the upset over Mississippi and Mississippi State lacked the drive to get it done against Miami.

Maybe we shouldn't count Miami out in the ACC this season. They seem to be among the teams playing consistent basketball that is lacking from normally steady Boston College and Maryland.

Slow Friday slate as is typical for this time of year. Only 3 Division 1 games and only one to keep a small eye one.

Drake at Iowa: I talked about Drake in my rant yesterday. The fast start could be bolstered by a win over Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been inconsistent to say the least. After four straight wins to open the season against less than stellar competition, Iowa followed with four straight losses, including a loss to Wake Forest in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. That was a game that should have gone to the Big Ten. They also lost to Louisiana-Monroe in that stretch and that shouldn't be happening to anyone in the Big Ten, even Northwestern. But then there were two straight wins including one at Northern Iowa, which seemed to signal they were back, until dropping one to Iowa State three days later. Who knows what Iowa will show up tonight. They are catching Drake at the wrong time. This is a team with a lot to prove prior to the Missouri Valley season when a lot of the games will "disappear" from the public eye unless someone is on a huge run.
MRI Predicts: Drake Confidence Factor: 66.84%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 10-2
This Season: 432 - 173, 71.40%
All Time: 12119 - 4775, 71.74%

The MRI is a computer basketball ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:20 AM | Comments (0)

December 13, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/13/07

Calling the ACC. Time to reassert that you are the best basketball conference in America. That means not losing to Massachusetts. That means not losing to Ohio.

Granted both of those losses last night were by teams which weren't among the "elite" this season, such as Duke or North Carolina. I still thought that Boston College was showing something more than what they had against Massachusetts. Guess not.

My beef for the day is that the ESPNU College Basketball Podcast is stealing my thunder here. Their lead offs and final shots over the last two weeks have covered material you would have heard about first in the MRI by reading Games to Watch. Topics have been about Xavier, about the WAC, and some teams to keep an eye on for Selection Sunday that would come out of the smaller conferences. Just remember you heard it here first that the Colonial will be lucky to get two teams this year, and should be happy with a single berth. Just remember that you heard about Duquesne and the possible resurgence of the Atlantic 10. Just remember that you saw Drake in the Top 25 of the MRI during week 3 when they start to win a few games in conference later.

So with that, I am stealing one of their items which shouldn't be news. Davidson has long been a name to worry about when it appears on your schedule. They routinely put scares into the North Carolinas and Dukes of the world. They are in the upper echelon of teams which come from the bottom third of conferences.

In years past, they have done everything they can, including winning a few of those big name games, and going undefeated in the conference regular season. Still, if they slip up during the conference tournament in the Southern conference they lose out on a bid in the tournament, even though they might be better than the 7th team out of a power conference. So they year, they went out and scheduled the heck out of things. Look at the schedule to date: At North Carolina, At Western Michigan (probably one of the best MAC teams), at Duke, at Charlotte (surprisingly decent this season), at UCLA. That is a road warrior's nightmare schedule. Predictably, they lost all five of those games. And so Davidson has a very un-Davidson-like 2-5 record against Division 1 teams. They are still the class of the Southern conference though. They continue that season tonight, already with a win over Appalachian State under they belt.

The Citadel at Davidson
MRI Predicts: Davidson Confidence Factor: 91.96%

In other MRI action, we get a chance to see two teams without losses take a fall tonight.

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:10 AM | Comments (0)

December 12, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/12/07

The MRI went .500 last night, although you wouldn't know it from the games that I chose to point out yesterday.

Southern Illinois hosted an undefeated St. Mary's team which looked like it could do no wrong. Instead of the expected result, the Salukis practically blew the Gaels out of the gym. I guess that St. Mary's won't be ranked for long.

Bradley traveled to Ohio to face Wright State, and got an important road win for them. Bradley is going to be one of those teams (assuming they don't totally collapse in their conference season) that will get a long hard look from the committee. They are either a last one in or last one out at this point, at least from what I have seen from their early start. Joe Lunardi won't put out another Bracketology until next week, so we will all have to have a good look at that to see. Wright State was getting some hype from ESPN in their weekly watch, so this win should at least make a little ripple in the minds of those at the WWL.

And then there is Louisiana Tech, now #318 of 341 in the MRI. That is because they could not get well with a win over a SWAC team last night. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a team that has been among the worst teams of the last decade, pulled off a win over the Bulldogs, 61-49. This on its own could illustrate the plight of the WAC this season. Louisiana Tech, with this futility, won't be helping to raise the RPI of anyone. Seven of the other eight teams are either at .500 or worse against Division 1 teams. One bid and a #12 seed or worse seems likely for the winner from the former power conference.

So what is there to take a look at tonight? Hopefully better than a 7-7 record, but that is besides the point. First up, let's head out to the home of 5-way chili, Cincinnati.

Cincinnati at MRI #1 Xavier: This is probably one of the most under-rated rivalry games in college basketball. Every season, this game has had the ability to go either way. Xavier is one of the top teams you never hear about while Cincinnati was a power for a long time under Bob Huggins. Huggybear isn't coaching the Bearcats anymore and they seem to have fallen a bunch since their move to the Big East. Xavier meanwhile is the top team in the country according to my computer and they have showed it. As I said before, they are doing it with a strong team oriented approach which has only gotten better over the course of the short season so far. Drew Lavender is now averaging over 5 assists per game, and his shooting has improved to make him a serious 5th threat on the floor. Meanwhile, things just keep clicking. This is a rivalry so you can't rule anything out, but the X-factor should be strong tonight
MRI Predicts: Xavier Confidence Factor: 94.33%

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:10 AM | Comments (0)

December 11, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/11/07

Last night turned out pretty much as expected. VMI was able to take out the Builders from the Apprentice School. It took them scoring over 100 to do it, since they let Newport get 96, but they got it done.

And then there is the sad little story of NJIT who fell to 0-12 in Division 1 games with their loss last night against Stony Brook. I still have no idea why NJIT decided to try their hand in Division 1, but here they are, although only as an independent at this point, and without the ability to qualify for any post season tournaments. Not that they would be in line with a record like this. They are just another school with dreams of making it big in the top league which probably should have checked themselves in the mirror first.

Their location is probably the biggest issue. Here they are, firmly in the Northeast part of the country, yet they are surrounded by a number of conferences which are already bloated or full without hope of a easy expansion. What team would want to step into that, risking being on their own for so long? There is nowhere for them to hope to latch on to, when they might be finally eligible to do so. Instead they have to sit and wait it out, playing on the road more often than not, and scrapping away with the other unaffiliated teams.

That is not the way to live in Division 1, a decision that right now, probably doesn't look so good.

On to tonight. In honor of NJIT, let's start with another game that features two teams ranked in the 300+ range in the MRI.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Louisiana Tech: How do you bounce back from a crushing defeat like Louisiana Tech had against Texas Tech (42 -1 runs are not good for your health)? You play a team from the SWAC, of course. Can the Bulldogs turn it around to night? Well, playing at home can often cure many ills. And this is Arkansas-Pine Bluff after all.
MRI Predicts: Louisiana Tech Confidence Factor: 52.25%

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:00 PM | Comments (1)

December 10, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/10/07

Anyone else remember when Mondays used to be Big Monday on ESPN? Maybe it will be later in the season, but tonight, we get nothing of interest. Eight games on the slate and only five of those have two Division 1 teams in them.

One game that the MRI can not pick as it involves a non-D1 team, features what could be out "Little Sisters of the Poor" game of the year. VMI faces off against the Newport News Apprentice School tonight at home. I don't expect the Keydets to have any trouble with the school that sounds like a night school for metal workers. Turns out it is a school that teaches the shipbuilding trade. While the students do not earn degrees there, they can earn credits toward an associates degree from an affiliated school. Yeah, got to hand it to the tough scheduling done by the VMI athletic department.

And don't worry, I will give an update on that score tomorrow.

One game of note features our basement team, NJIT:

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 5:10 PM | Comments (0)

December 7, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/7/07

Friday nights are interminably slow and scanning tonight's slate, there is only one game worth watching. So let's spend most of today looking at last night's games.

First, let's look back at last night's watch game. Valpo did manage to hold Todd Brown of Wright State to 5 for 16 shooting and only 12 points. They weren't able to outrebound the Raiders, but they did manage to eek out a 5 point win in a tough road game. So the MRI got that one wrong, but it was 51-49 for Wright State, so I am not too upset on that one. Overall the MRI got about 80% right last night, a big up from earlier in the week.

In Philadelphia, the Big East/SEC Invitational continued. On Wednesday night, it was two games in Alabama, SEC country for sure, of which the Big East took home both. Last night, the series got a split, but it looked like having the "home court advantage" wasn't going to work out at all for the Big East. In the early game, South Carolina took out Providence, a team that started early, and has stumbled this week. In the late game, LSU ran out to a 21 point lead but couldn't hold on. Villanova stormed back in the final three minutes to win on a shot with about six seconds left.

I admit to giving up on Villanova in that one. I turned to the it during commercials of the Bears - Redskins game, and saw just how badly the Wildcats were playing. At one point, the Nova guards were shooting 4 for 30 in the game, and that was late in the second half. There was no reason to believe that a comeback was going to happen.

So count me as shocked when I woke up this morning and saw that Nova had come back to win 68 - 67. That is the mark of a team that knows how to win. It should be a scary sign for those in the Big East if Villanova can muster that sort of effort and give their all to win like that. Granted, this was against LSU, which is nowhere close to the LSU of the Final Four two years ago, but that is still a win that Villanova can look at and say "This is our season. We want to win."

And finally, in a game that sets back basketball about 50 years, Samford beat Jacksonville State, 41 - 34. The teams shot a combined 30% from the floor. There were only 27 baskets in the entire game! They should give the money back to the 1427 fans that actually came to the game.

OK, enough of that. On to tonight.

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

December 6, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/6/07

Last night's action was a mess of blowouts. West Virginia ran out to almost a 30 point lead over Auburn before the Tigers figured out how to shoot. Texas Tech rode a huge run from midway through the first half to midway through the second half to a 45 point lead against Louisiana Tech. The Red Raiders eventually won by 55 over the Bulldogs. Yes, this is the same Texas Tech team that lost to Centenary. I can't imagine what got into them other than Louisiana Tech is just not that good, which just plays back into the WAC's terrible MRI score for their conference. The former power conference is mired in 20th place, which leads me to believe that whoever comes out of that league will be lucky to get a 10 seed.

Some mid-major conferences start their league play tonight, which leads to some very uninteresting games. So I am only pointing to one tonight which you can attempt to watch if you can't get the NFL network and will miss the Bears - Redskins game.

Valparaiso at Wright State: Valparaiso, the former power of the Mid-Con conference, has moved from the conference now known as Summit to one known as Horizon. This new day for the Crusaders starts in earnest tonight as they face what could be their biggest foe for 2nd place in their new home. Valpo is off to a 5-1 start against Division 1 competition, but the loss came against the only real foe that they have faced yet, Vanderbilt. Wright State has a 2-1 record and their loss came against Marist, a team surprising early, out of the MAAC. So where does that leave us tonight? A tough game in middle America to be 2nd in line to Butler, the team likely to dominate the league. See if Valpo can shut down Todd Brown, Wright State's leading scorer, and force turnovers from the rest of the team, who seem to have ball control issues. For its part, Wright State will to stop Valpo's good ball rotation and find a way to overcome their size discrepancy. The MRI likes the home team in this one, but it could go either way.
MRI Predicts: Wright State Confidence Factor: 51.17%

MRI Stats:
Yesterday: 46 - 11
This Season: 291 - 113, 72.03%
All Time: 11978 - 4715, 71.75%

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:15 PM | Comments (0)

December 5, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/5/07

If you looked at the score of the Tennessee - Chattanooga game and thought that it should have been a bigger spread, you are probably right. However, the score probably should have been going in the other direction.

Tennessee, a team expected to take the SEC crown with only scant pressure from Vanderbilt, was out-rebounded by the Mocs, and shot a season low 36%. If they had not forced Chattanooga into 33 (!!) turnovers, you could have expected to be reading about another upset of a top ten team this morning.

On another note last night, you can look at Harvard's game against Boston University for one of the reasons Tommy Amaker was let go from Michigan. I know I thought he deserved a little more time with the Wolverines. However, you can't lose games that you are supposed to win. Now, I am not saying that Boston University should have been a "gimmee" win for Harvard, but the Terriers were only 1-6 entering the game last night. Add in that Harvard was coming off a big win against Michigan, no matter how bad Michigan is going to be this season. You have to ride that wave and take it to another victory, not lose all momentum. I can see the headlines on all of the Michigan blogs this morning: "Same old Tommy".

Looking out West, it was a bad night for the Mountain West conference. The two teams expected to be near the top of the league, New Mexico and Air Force, both lost games on the road against inferior opponents. New Mexico lost to in-state rival, and member of the lagging WAC, New Mexico State by 9. Air Force was taken down by the MAC's 1-6 (prior to the game) Northern Illinois. Repeating my statement from the Harvard game, you have to win the games you are expected to win.

One final note before looking at tonight. I should apologize for making anyone watch the USC - Memphis game last night. USC had a nice game plan, forcing everyone not named Derrick Rose to beat them. It worked for most of the game because they forced Memphis into terrible possessions which led to turnover after turnover. But that is not what I wanted to point out.

Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo are not ready for the NBA.

There, I said it. Neither one has a game developed enough to move to the next level. Neither of these guys is a Greg Oden, or a Kevin Durant, who came into college last year, and already had most of the skills they needed in order to succeed at the next level. While I thought Durant was undersized (he has been hitting the weights), and Oden needed a few more low post moves, they were ready.

However, Beasley and Mayo continue to confound me. Yes, I can see the talent that is there. However, it is too raw for the next level. I can't see coaches at the next level working to refine their game. It is going to take a miracle for them to step in and be ready. Just look at Mayo's shooting. The boy is a 20-year old freshman and he has terrible shot selection. He also struggles in man to man defense, not keeping an eye on the ball and the man at the same time. This actually allowed Memphis to get a couple of easier baskets last night (although nothing really came easy for them), because Mayo was just looking at his opponent's belly button the entire time. They need more time.

Do I have faith in the NBA scouts to notice this, or for people with smarts to tell them this? No. But it will definitely come as a shock to these two when they are sitting on the bench in the NBA next season, instead of starting, and improving, in the college ranks.

Let's look at tonight:

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

December 4, 2007

Games To Watch - 12/4/07

It has been a tough few days for the MRI. I can almost compare this to the battle in football this season, where the predictions had a two week run where it seemed like nothing went right.

That wasn't exactly the truth. The MRI in football actually got 71% right this season, despite all of the upsets that we saw throughout the year. It was a slightly better percentage than it normally did, so I take that as a good sign. However, there were a few dark weeks.

Let's just hope it doesn't go that long for the MRI in basketball, or you never know who you will see at the top.

A little note on last night, also with a little reference to football season. One of the knocks on Ohio State playing in the National Championship was that their schedule out of conference was terrible, and with the way that the Big Ten played, that their in-conference schedule didn't really have any "big" games on it. This is in comparison to the SEC or the Big XII, whose teams normally play difficult games out of conference, or have a conference slate that can help improve the full profile of the league.

In last night's action, we saw Indiana, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, all score easy wins in non-conference games. Outside of the ACC-Big Ten challenge, which saw the Big Ten look silly, there hasn't really been a team that has truly stepped up outside of league play except for Ohio State. Their grand total of wins in the big games (Syracuse, Texas A&M, UNC, Butler): 1, against Syracuse, probably the weakest of the four teams at this point in the season.

Yes, the teams may have a nice game or two on their schedule. Michigan State played UCLA. Indiana took on Xavier, and Southern Illinois. Michigan decided to get itself crushed by Georgetown and Butler, and they play Duke next. However, in each of the "up" games, they Big Ten has looked over powered and out matched.

This is supposed to be a down year for the league overall, but they haven't helped themselves with the scheduling or the performance in the few games that they have which could mean something come March.

Now they just have to wish that their performance then is better than what is expected out of the league when they square up in the bowl games. Only 2 of the eight bowl teams is favored in Vegas, and one of those is against a MAC opponent, the Big Ten's annual whipping boy when it comes to their non-conference slate.

One last thought before tonight's games. For those thinking that Memphis will run away with Conference USA this season and no other teams will have a chance to even play come March, don't get your hopes up. Tom Penders has Houston at 7-1, a nice start, and that loss was by only 1 to Virginia Commonwealth. The Cougars also have big games against Kentucky and Arizona which will look good if they can pull a win in one of them. Plus, they get two cracks at Memphis, which if they can score a win, almost locks them into a slot in the tournament with 20 wins. UAB and Marshall have chances at a sniff from the committee but Houston has the best hope for a slot in the field of 64.

Houston should have no issues with Toledo tonight which leads us to the rest of the MRI's thoughts:

Holy Cross at St. Joseph's: Two mid-majors (man, I still remember when the A-10 was relevant) who have a shot at coming out of their leagues, without the automatic bid, should things continue to go their way this season. This is essentially a playoff for the two if they are both on the bubble at the end of the season. Tim Clifford, at 6' 11", 260 is a force in the middle for the Crusaders, and the MRI thinks that gives them the slight edge in this one.
MRI Predicts: Holy Cross Confidence Factor: 54.72%

Kansas State vs MRI #13 Notre Dame: I can't help but wonder what Kansas State would be like if Bob Huggins had not left to take over at West Virginia. I am not doubting current Wildcat coach Frank Martin, but I know that Huggins would have been able to mold something special around Michael Beasley which wouldn't have Kansas State dropping all of the big games on their schedule. Maybe it wouldn't take anything more than passing the ball! and the team not standing around watching him. This one is in MSG as part of the Jimmy V Classic.
MRI Predicts: Notre Dame Confidence Factor: 70.57%

Continue reading "Games To Watch - 12/4/07"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:00 PM | Comments (0)

November 30, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/30/07

Last night was a bad night for the Colonial conference and any hopes they might have had for two bids from the league. While it could still happen, I think the only team with a reasonable shot at an at-large bid is George Mason, should they fail to get the automatic bid.

Why the pessimism? Virginia Commonwealth, the only other team in the Colonial with the name, schedule, or team, to run with the big boys come March went down to annual MEAC favorite, Hampton. The MEAC is currently the 30th ranked conference in the MRI. While Hampton is good, a team competing in the Colonial, with a chance to win the conference should not be losing to them. VCU already has lost their high profile games (Arkansas, Miami). This will just go down as another bad loss even if Hampton comes out of its conference. The only way to redeem this is to somehow beat Maryland on Sunday, something not so likely now.

More trouble? Towson goes down to Navy. Not that this isn't expected. Towson is growing in the Colonial and never really transitioned well into the bigger and tougher league. It was a big fish in the America East before the shift of Drexel, Delaware, Hofstra, Northeastern, and Towson, to the Colonial. Now, it is struggling to keep up.

Last, the way Drexel lost to George Mason. In order to prove your league deserves a second big, especially for those leagues right on the cusp, is to show that teams can compete with the top teams in the conference, and that it is not just a one team show. Drexel lost to George Mason last night, 85-38. 47 points was a new record for a win by George Mason over a conference opponent. The worst part of this is that Drexel was supposed to be the 3rd or 4th best team in the conference. When your upper tier teams lose this badly, that leaves you scraping for a single bid.

The best thing that could happen to the Colonial now is that George Mason loses in the finals of the conference tournament, still a few months away. No other teams seems to want to prove itself to be on the same level.

Duquesne vs. Cal State Northridge in Des Moines, IA: Duquesne hasn't had the hardest schedule yet, but undefeated they are. I think it is just nice to see them coming back from the shooting that marred last season. While I don't know if the Dukes can seriously challenge Xavier for the conference crown, winning early could give them momentum that would see them playing in March for the first time since 1977. A big reason for the early fire has been their shooting close to 50% from the field, a monster number over the first five games. Tonight's game against Cal State Northridge sees them facing another team with no losses. The loser of this game will have a major effect on the MRI scores of a number of teams (based on the formulas for MOV used). The MRI sees this one going to the Dukes.
MRI Predicts: Duquesne Confidence Factor: 66.54%

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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:30 PM | Comments (0)

November 29, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/29/07

The Big Ten couldn't shock the world last night by coming within a single game of the ACC. The final tally was 8 - 3 in favor of that league on the East coast. Ohio State looked very flat against North Carolina. Illinois couldn't pull off the same magic that they had earlier this year, and Michigan, the favorite in their game, was not playing like one in the second half.

So, once again, the ACC can lock the trophy up in their office. Is this another sign that the Big Ten is down? Maybe, but it is not a result that has ever been different, so it is hard to tell. Perhaps more telling is that the only games that the Big Ten won were by the two favorites for the conference title and one against what looks like the worst team in the ACC. No game matching middle of the conference teams went to the Big Ten, which could be a big headache for the league when it comes to those last bubble teams into the NCAA.

Time to move on to the rest of the country, where we are seeing some of the mid-major teams match up tonight. What teams can make a statement and continue towards a chance at a coveted at-large bid.

Drexel at George Mason: The Patriots still have a little of the team left that went to the Final Four two years ago. While they aren't overall as strong as that season, they have gotten out to a 5-1 record on the back of some strong shooting. They have scored wins over South Carolina and Kansas State already this season, and their single loss was against Villanova by 8. Drexel's resume isn't quite as strong, and they have some big losses from last season which was passed over for the tournament. Their single loss was against Virginia, which is nothing to be ashamed of this season. We all saw what they did to Northwestern. Still, Drexel is only a dark horse this year in the Colonial while George Mason is expected to push Virginia Commonwealth for the title. Tonight goes to the Patriots.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence Factor: 78.90%

Wichita State at Appalachian State: I know Wichita State was not supposed to contend for the Missouri Valley title this season, but they are playing stronger than expected. And I don't know if it is a hangover from the football craze around Appalachian State, but somehow, Wichita State is the underdog here. I know that the home team in the NCAA wins about 2/3 of the time, but a team from the MVC should not be an underdog to a team from the Southern conference, unless that team is named Davidson. This is going to come down to which team's forwards play the best, although guard PJ Couisnard could tip the scales in the Wichita State's favor overall.
MRI Predicts: Wichita State Confidence Factor: 54.60%

Continue reading "Games To Watch - 11/29/07"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

November 28, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/28/07

The ACC took a 5-1 lead last night, losing only the Indiana - Georgia Tech game, which almost looked like it was going to go to the Yellow Jackets, if it weren't for Eric Gordon. Noise out of the Hoosier faithful doesn't like the look of the team right now, even if they are winning. There is too much standing around and watching Gordon do his thing. Personally, the offense looks pretty balanced to me, although there is a little bit of the "Let's see if Eric can do it" first before others look for their shots.

That means the ACC needs just a single game tonight to win what has become their annual thrashing of the Big Ten in this contest. I am not exactly sure what they could do the change the format and perhaps change this trend. Maybe force all of the teams to play two games, one on the road and one at home? That would eliminate what is seen as the ACC always getting the "close games" at home, since the return game when it occurs the next year, always seems to happen during a down year for the Big Ten team in question. I am not sure that teams would be willing to give two non-conference games to a format like this. While it is a good spectacle for a single game and a three day run, I don't know if the attention could be maintained over a full week.

But before we give this year to the ACC, they still have to win one of the 5 games tonight. Let's look at the schedule this evening.

North Carolina at Ohio State: If four starters off the Ohio State team from last season weren't gone, then this would have been one of the premier games on the slate. That isn't what happened. However, Ohio State is still playing well. They were more than their starting line-up last season. They still weren't North Carolina. North Carolina returns almost everyone and is the strong favorite to win the ACC and at least get to the Final Four. This will be their first real test of the season. The MRI doesn't yet have North Carolina in the elite and Ohio State is just outside the top 25. The computer backs the Buckeyes, but then again, it liked Wisconsin last night.
MRI Predicts: Ohio State Confidence Factor: 52.55%

Illinois at Maryland: I spoke about the woes of Maryland this morning. Outside of the single game against Duke, Illinois has actually looked pretty good. They are a wild card in this year's Big Ten. They could be anywhere from a contender to a 7th place finish in the league which by all accounts is down. This will be a big win for Illinois if they can pull it off. Obviously the big key for the Illini will be turnovers, the one thing that they can definitely push the Terrapins on. I wonder if Illinois can rebound with the Maryland team, but this is another one that the MRI likes the Big Ten winning.
MRI Predicts: Illinois Confidence Factor: 54.54%

Continue reading "Games To Watch - 11/28/07"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:20 PM | Comments (0)

November 27, 2007

Games To Watch - 11/27/07

With the release of the new basketball MRI rankings, it is also time to start the MRI's picking of games for the season. It is quite a record to stand up to. The MRI has over the course of time, predicted 71.77% of games. That isn't just in 100 games. That is over 16000 games that the MRI has looked at.

Now, there is a line of accuracy, and I can tell you that when teams are evenly matched (by the MRI of course), it gets it right about 51% of the time. As the teams are further apart, the MRI does better and better. In all the years, there has only been one super upset.

Fittingly, that was Clemson losing at home to Elon.

What should we be looking for tonight? Why, the major kickoff of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. I wouldn't expect things to change much this year. The ACC should still easily win the event, now bloated to 11 games. They got off to a good start with middle of the pack Wake Forest easily taking down Iowa. There are a few very interesting games left in the tournament. Let's see what the MRI says about the projected winners tonight.

Georgia Tech at Indiana: Let's see what Indiana's Eric Gordon can do tonight against a real defense (no slight to Xavier). Indiana needs to bounce back from the loss to the A-10's likely champion and grab what could be a "good" win come tournament time. It is also likely one of the few wins that the Big Ten can get in the conference contest.
MRI Predicts: Indiana Confidence Factor: 82.67%

Minnesota at Florida State: Tubby Smith is winning with less than the best talent since moving North. However, the best win was against an Iowa State team which was only possibly a sleeper in the Big XII. They don't really have anything to write home about yet. Florida State is expected to actually be in the top half of the ACC again this year, and back to the NCAA tournament. A win over Florida, even if Florida isn't Florida is a big step. Losses to Cleveland State and South Florida are not. Time to get back in the hunt by beating another team they are expected to beat.
MRI Predicts: Florida State Confidence Factor: 50.89%

Continue reading "Games To Watch - 11/27/07"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:50 PM | Comments (0)

April 3, 2006

The National Championship, April 3rd, 2006

You can't blame the winners for making the games boring. If the losing team can't produce enough excitement to counter what the winning teams are doing, there is nothing that the top teams can do. So, don't blame UCLA and Florida for the lack of excitement generated by LSU and George Mason, respectively.

But, if all holds true, everything should be different tonight. A battle of wills is going to be waged on the court and the stronger team in terms of keeping control and momentum should hold serve.

Keys to tonight's game for UCLA:

Control the tempo: Don't let Florida consistently run the ball up court.

Rebound, rebound, rebound: One of the keys to Florida's victories have been their ability to get second chance shots consistently. UCLA needs to fight Florida on the glass better and hold them to one shot.

Shoot over 40%: No secret here. Florida has been brutal on defense for the tournament. If UCLA can crack the 40% barrier, it means they are getting good guard contribution outside the paint. While they will still need to challenge the big men on the interior, without a consistent outlet for Hollins and Mbah a Moute when they get in trouble, UCLA will sink as fast as George Mason did.

Keys for Florida:

Run: It worked on Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Get the big men for UCLA moving and force them to get back on defense quickly to help guard the boards and the break. Hollins and Mata can move, but past those two, the bench thins considerably for the Bruins. Trying to combat Noah, Horford, and the rest of the Florida front line could be trouble if they are worn down.

Exploit the three point line: Lee Humphrey was deadly from beyond the arc in the second half against George Mason. If he or Brewer can hit consistently, Florida can open a big lead early which will be difficult for the methodical offense of UCLA to come back against. Even if they are missing, the size and depth of the big men should allow them second chance points, provided that they are there to rebound. Just the threat should be enough to open up the inside just a little bit more for Noah.

Hold onto the ball: Turnovers have been happening for the Gators, but they haven't really affected them yet. The story in most of the games has been that they controlled the tempo, so losing the ball here and there usually was able to wash out in the extra possessions that the increased pace of the generated. UCLA is not going to speed through the game like George Mason tried to against Florida. The Gators need to control the ball longer, and not let their big men, especially Noah, lose them momentum by fumbling the ball away or taking too many steps.

Florida (3) vs. UCLA (2)
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 67.78%

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0)

April 1, 2006

The Final Four, April 1st, 2006

Sitting in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks are celebrating a second straight victory in the NIT. And while they are celebrating, the bigger championship is still to be decided. Playing for that championship are two teams that South Carolina knows well, LSU and Florida, currently seen as possible favorites for a finals rematch.

What does the MRI say about the Final Four?

Continue reading "The Final Four, April 1st, 2006"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:45 PM | Comments (0)

February 18, 2006

Bracket Busters, Part 3

The final five games of the Bracket Buster weekend feature some of the best chances for a big run come tournament time. What does the MRI say about the evening run of games?

Continue reading "Bracket Busters, Part 3"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

Bracket Busters, Part 2

There are 11 more games on the slate for Bracket Buster weekend. The MRI is encouraged by a great record after the first night so here are more predictions for the beginning part of the day.

Continue reading "Bracket Busters, Part 2"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:15 AM | Comments (0)

February 17, 2006

Bracket Busters, Part 1

With only 20 minutes until tip-off in two of the all important Bracket Buster games, the MRI is going to take a shot at projecting the winners early.

Continue reading "Bracket Busters, Part 1"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 5:38 PM | Comments (0)

April 4, 2005

Games to Watch - April 4th

One game to watch tonight, the only one we have been anticipating since the tournament started, the one the committee was probably hoping would be the final.

By now, if you don't know these two teams, well, I can't help you with my analysis, some of which I posted yesterday.

What you are really interested in is who is going to win.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - April 4th"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2005

Games to Watch - January 12th

Performed a little better last night in the predictions. Still, not a grand week so far for the MRI. I have to remain positive though. Conference season is sure to provide a number of games that will prove to be upsets. You have to factor in rivalries which are not as common during the non-conference slate. This will cause more upsets than you would figure. Hopefully after this week, things will even out and the MRI will continue its stellar performance so far this year. Gonna be a short night because of the top games of the year will be tonight, though you can say that about any match-up at the top of the ACC.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - January 12th"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:14 AM | Comments (0)

January 11, 2005

Games to Watch - January 11th

I will have to look under the couch. I think I dropped the real MRI back there. Last night, the MRI had its worst single day performance of the year. And yet, it had the Oklahoma win over Connecticut correct. Somehow Oklahoma had been under the national radar until this past week, just breaking into the polls this week and they performed like the very good team they had been all year in that win. I can look to the little conferences such as the Southwest Athletic Conference for the blame. Lots of poor playing teams were on the court last night, and some of the them played better than the other bottom feeders. So tonight, I look to turn this around.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - January 11th"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

January 4, 2005

Games to Watch - January 4th

Ok, really people, there is no basketball to watch tonight. Instead everyone will be watching the one game that matters.

The Orange Bowl.

See you on Wednesday.

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:43 AM | Comments (0)

January 3, 2005

Games to Watch - January 3rd

The new year has dawned and now conference season is upon us. Sure, some teams have played the token conference game here and there before now, but the next two months will be filled with rivalries and hard fought match-ups which should fill this column daily. Of course, I have been missing for the past few days. Not that I haven't been busy. Bowl season had me working hard on previewing football match-ups over at On The Field and my fingers can only take so much. As a result, look for a back up of game reviews to appear over the next few days here at Sitting Courtside. Also, for those interested, I am looking at a new format for MRISports.com, Sitting Courtside, and On The Field which may soon allow you to get all of your sports fun in one place. Hopefully, it will work out but I am being careful as I don't want to lose my archives of postings and stats. Look for it sometime near the end of the month of January.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - January 3rd"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:44 AM | Comments (0)

December 27, 2004

Games to Watch - December 27th

With three days and only one college basketball game which wasn't televised, it seemed like the world stopped. Sure, I had a single bowl game to keep my attention, or lack of it. The Hawaii Bowl, while high scoring, was not the best football game to watch. In fact, it looked like a junior league football game where there is a lot of offense and then everyone just chases the kid with the ball again and again. So, finally college basketball is back tonight. Unfortunately scheduling today left a little to be desired so there is only one match-up that I can recommend tonight.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - December 27th"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:50 PM | Comments (0)

December 23, 2004

Games to Watch - December 23rd

The MRI did much nicer last night though not without a scare in the SC State-South Carolina game. The Bulldogs took South Carolina to overtime before the Gamecocks could finish them off. Like I said yesterday, it seemed that an upset was in the making. It just didn't come true and the MRI finished the day 4-0 in the watch games while it went 53 for 62 overall on the night. That brings the MRI record to 7-5 in the games to watch this week and 125-24 for the week so far. Three games for your viewing pleasure tonight.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - December 23rd"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:11 PM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2004

Games to Watch - December 22nd

The MRI performed a little better last night in the games to watch, going 3-3 in the six matches. For the day, the MRI lost only 7 games, which makes it somewhat humorous that three of them were in the six games I chose to post. The .500 day puts the MRI at 3-5 on the week. Four games tonight for your viewing pleasure. While all are intriguing match-ups for different reasons, they all appear to be certain victories for the home team. Look out for an upset!

Continue reading "Games to Watch - December 22nd"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:19 PM | Comments (0)

December 21, 2004

Games to Watch - December 21st

Ouch. What looked to be a promising beginning to the week didn't turn out that way as the MRI lost both games yesterday. Still congratulations are in order for Oral Roberts who beat Georgetown by 18 points to keep playing out in Hawaii. Staying perfect isn't easy and doing it on a neutral court miles from home is even tougher. So, with my 0-2 record, we will go to today's games, and we have a big slate today of six. Percentages and predictions are based on numbers through Sunday's games.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - December 21st"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:21 PM | Comments (0)

December 20, 2004

Games to Watch - December 20th

Last week's games to watch didn't go so well for the MRI on Thursday and Friday, which was an anomaly in a week when the MRI got 80% of all games correct. The MRI went 5-3 in all published picks last week. This week, we are going for improvement. We are going to go for it all again this week, with a new post each day because there are so many great games this week because of the holiday on the weekend. We start off with two games without the big focus this week of a ranked team.

Continue reading "Games to Watch - December 20th"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:24 PM | Comments (0)

December 14, 2004

Games to Watch This Week

Get your TiVo programmer ready. There are a few games you are going to want to watch this week before a great day of Saturday basketball. And if they aren't on television, definitely pay attention to the results.

Continue reading "Games to Watch This Week"

Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:50 PM | Comments (0)