April 3, 2009

Penn State: The Improbable NIT winner

Penn State finished off Baylor last night 69-65 to take the NIT title. While some may mock the winner of this secondary tournament -- calling then No. 66 even though this title brings with it more prestige than dropping a first round NCAA game in an upset -- the NIT has been a stepping stone for many teams moving into the next season.

I wrote about this at Examiner, but here is a list of the teams that have turned recent NIT success into NCAA tournament glory the next season:

Ohio State turned last year’s championship into a No. 8 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament.

West Virginia, the 2007 champion, reached the Sweet Sixteen in 2008. The runner-up, Clemson, was No. 5 seed but ran into a hot Villanova team.

Two-time defending champ South Carolina started the 2007 season 10-3 before getting rolled by a hot SEC conference that ultimately produced NCAA champ Florida.

Ok, so Ohio State's tournament run didn't end with fireworks and parades, but they made the field. That should give Penn State a lot of hope going into next year, even with the loss of Jamelle Cornley.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about Penn State's run to the title is how improbable the whole thing was.

It might not have been as unlikely as Davidson winning it all as the computer predicted. The Wildcats would have had to win every single game of the tournament on the road or at neutral courts.

Yes, the NCAA tournament is played all at neutral sites, but winning in Greensboro, N.C., is a lot different than going into someone's bandbox of a gym and taking them out. Just ask Northwestern who had to travel to Tulsa, or Davidson for that matter who went down to St. Mary's in Moraga, Calif.

Penn State benefited from getting every NIT game at home until its quarterfinal game against Florida. Yet, the Nittany Lions were the underdog in the computer's mind for every single game.

The last time that a team made a run like that with the odds stacked against them so badly was George Mason, and even the Patriots were favored by the computer in two of their tournament games.

And those same Patriots almost ended Penn State's run before it started. It took a last second three-point shot for Penn State to tie George Mason and send the game into an overtime period that the Nittany Lions ultimately prevailed during.

That was the first round of the tournament. Penn State almost did get a chance to sniff at Madison Square Garden and the banner that will hang in their rafters.

To recap their run, here are the chances that Penn State had to win each of their games:

• Vs. George Mason: 48.33%
• Vs. Rhode Island: 48.31%
• Vs. Florida: 8.17%
• Vs. Notre Dame: 46.98%
• Vs. Baylor: 39.76%

You may look at that and say, "Well, there are three games there where the chances were almost 50 percent."

Sure, but the 8.17 percent chance that Penn State had against Florida on the road, and the less than 40 percent chance that it had against Baylor more than diminish the seemingly lofty chances of the Nittany Lions in the three toss-up games.

The total chance of winning was somewhere around 0.3 percent!

And remembers, two of those coin flips were home games for Penn State. Teams are rarely the underdog at home when the skill level is close.

So congrats to Penn State, who was on no one's radar to begin the season, and almost grabbed an NCAA tournament bid despite its horrid non-conference schedule.

You beat the odds and came out a champion.

The MRI Rankings are copyright 2009 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski is a freelance reporter, edits and writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. He also is the Northwestern Wildcats Examiner for Examiner.com. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 12:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 25, 2009

Northwestern Wildcats Examiner: Could Curry become a Wildcat?

Liberty’s season ended Monday, an 88-65 loss to the James Madison Dukes in the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament.

The future of the basketball program ended Tuesday.

Seth Curry, the high-scoring, little brother of Davidson’s Stephen Curry announced his decision to transfer in order to face tougher competition during his college career.

Frankly, the fact that Liberty had this kid for a year is a shock in itself.

Everyone watched the elder Curry light up the league in his freshman season, averaging almost 22 points per game. Then he turned it on for his sophomore campaign, almost leading the Wildcats to the Final Four.

At that point, coaches across the country should have been scrambling to recruit Seth. Even if he were a bust, given the play of his brother, it would have been worth the risk.

It is almost like watching Archie Manning play in the NFL and Peyton tear up the SEC, and then not recruiting Eli.

The family has the genes.

So Liberty got its season of glory, even if that glory ended in the fourth best tournament in the country.
Now where does Seth go?

Read the rest of this story here.

The MRI Rankings are copyright 2009 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski is a freelance reporter, edits and writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. He also is the Northwestern Wildcats Examiner for Examiner.com. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 28, 2009

Northwestern Examiner: Men look to exorcise demons against Indiana

The men's basketball team takes on Indiana tonight in Evanston, ... assuming that Tom Crean and company are able to get through the snow and to the stadium.

Northwestern is looking to exact some revenge on Indiana after the Hoosiers have beaten them in five straight games. It isn't the same players on Indiana now as then, but a win like this could go a long way to having Northwestern pointed in the right direction again.

Read the preview and then look for a game review later as MRISports and your Northwestern Examiner will be on the sidelines from press row for this one.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 21, 2009

Northwestern Examiner: Men hope 13 unlucky for Spartans

In my new role as Northwestern Examiner for Examiner.com, the Chicago Edition, I preview tonight's game for the Northwestern men against the Michigan State Spartans.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 7, 2009

Of Boards and Men

In the process of applying for a real job yesterday afternoon, I had to write a short article on a subject with a local angle.

That shouldn't be a problem when the subject is Northwestern sports.

So I wrote it.

Three hundred glorious words on why Northwestern men's basketball is struggling now that conference season has started because of rebounds.

Heck, I should just let you read it yourself:

The Northwestern men’s basketball team is no stranger to a 0-2 start in the Big Ten. It just doesn’t usually come after an 8-2 non-conference slate.

Yet that is the position that the only team in the six major conferences to never make the NCAA tournament finds itself in as it prepares for the next opponent in the Big Ten gauntlet, Wisconsin.

While victories out of conference over Florida State and DePaul had fans and the media thinking that history might be made, perhaps the celebration began a bit too early.

The truth was that Northwestern matched up fairly well against the Seminoles and Blue Demons. But once the conference season began, Northwestern was suddenly outsized by the upperclassmen at Penn State and Michigan State.

The result?

Northwestern got out-boarded 46-24 and 47-28. Even worse, both opponents hauled in more than 15 offensive rebounds.

It is hard to win when you can’t stop the other team’s second-chances.

Much of the same might be in store when the Wildcats take to the road against Wisconsin on Wednesday. While Northwestern has trailed in the rebound category, the Badgers have been beating opponents off the glass, including in its most recent victory against Penn State.

Explain how Northwestern is going to deal with Joe Krabbenhoft, who averages 6.8 rebounds a game – a better average than any Wildcat – despite not having anyone matching the Wisconsin senior’s combination of size and speed.

The road through the Big Ten is never easy, especially when you are Northwestern. But things get more difficult when you can’t match up against a bigger opponent.

All signs point to that equaling another 0-3 conference start for Northwestern, its third in a row and the fifth time this decade.

That wasn't my final submission. I made the article even more local looking at how influential John Shurna has been on the team.

Here was a kid who was not highly recruited but is starting as a freshman for a team in the major six conferences, even if that team is Northwestern. That is something to celebrate.

But the rebounding was still a factor in my final submission because the discrepancy is so egregious. And if Northwestern doesn't find a way to stop Wisconsin from outrebounding them, they are going to lose.

It doesn't get any more simple than that.

Apparently I wasn't the only one to pick up on this.

Look at the Chicago Tribune's headline from this morning: "Northwestern needs to improve rebounding ratio in Big Ten games"

And the discrepancy has not been lost on coach Bill Carmody as reported by the Trib:

"We basically showed them a lot of tape," Northwestern coach Bill Carmody said. "Situations, the box-outs, this and that, and then really emphasized it yesterday in practice, in the scrimmages and the half-court sets. Everything. Just every single play. We spent a lot of time on it."

So there you have it. Northwestern's next game -- and probably its season, since an 0-3 conference start is not easy to overcome -- all come down to improving on the boards.

I guess that No. 8 start for the Wildcats in the MRI was a fluke after all.

Ben Miraski is a freelance reporter, edits and writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 10:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 19, 2008

Big Props to Psycho T

Stop and take a look at the picture that accompanies this article.

Look how graceful Tyler Hansbrough seems as he lays the ball in.

Ok, now forget that image.

That is not the real "Psycho T".

No, the real Hansbrough worked his way into the low post and practically shoved the basketball toward the basket last night to score the points that made him the all-time leading scorer at North Carolina, breaking Phil Ford's 30-year-old record.

Think about that achievement. This isn't the top scorer at some no name school; this is North Carolina.

And this is not some shot-heavy guard that took away the mark, it is a tough center.

Hansbrough did it the way he made most of his now-career 2302 points -- hard-driving, muscle-ripping, and pounding.

That is the Hansbrough that has brought North Carolina back to the top of the basketball world.

It is also the Hansbrough that will probably drop in all the draft lists because he is not polished enough, he doesn't shoot from outside, and he hasn't got the finesse to play in the NBA.

That is all ridiculous scout nonsense.

This is a basketball player at his best. And if grit and determination aren't valued anymore, then so be it.

But, you would be hard pressed to count the number of basketball players who would have accepted the accolades that come with Hansbrough's achievement with as much humility as the senior did. In an era of 'Me, Me, Me', Hansbrough is all about team.

He looked as if he would rather forget the whole thing happened during the brief stoppage of play after the record basket. He wanted to get back to playing.

And some team in the NBA should reward that because they will get a player on their team that they never have to worry about giving 100 percent and not getting into trouble on off nights or after the game.

Congrats to Hansbrough for his achievement...

And for being a real class act in a sport that is severely lacking in that category.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 8, 2007

Kentucky Oops? Just Par for the Course

It is probably hard to miss these days. When a team from one of the smaller college upsets one of the big boys, on their home floor, none the less, it is big news. We saw it in football, with Appalachian State taking down Michigan.

Last night, we saw it in Kentucky as they lost to Gardner-Webb, 84-68. As far as we now, no one was calling Tubby Smith up in Minnesota to see if he would come back. The era of Billy Gillispie is off to a rocky start.

There are lots of moans on the message boards today about the state of the program. Some can't believe that Tubby Smith left the cupboard as bare as it looks. Some can't believe that Saint Billy wasn't able to turn the tide so quickly.

But should we really be worried? It is rare that a loss this early in the season will derail a team that should still make it to the NCAA tournament. And a loss this early is difficult to judge. While this is a huge win for Gardner-Webb - anytime you have a victory over Kentucky on your resume, it is a good thing - this isn't going to hold Kentucky back from success this season, if the team is really the 22nd best team in the country.

This is not a new thing. Last year, Butler (while not as low down the rankings as G-W) ran through to a pre-season NIT championship. Two years ago, Sam Houston took down Missouri, and Drexel made it through to the pre-season NIT Final Four and almost pulled upsets over both Duke and UCLA, programs which had pretty good seasons.

Probably the one that stands out most to me was in the 2004-2005 season. North Carolina lost their opening game to Santa Clara. That didn't stop them from winning the next 14 in a row on their way to beating Illinois for the National title.

So why are these things happening? The most obvious reason is that the big boys are no longer the big boys. Players in some cases are seeing kids from smaller schools get drafted. They would rather go to a smaller school, play for four years, and make an impact, rather than sitting on the bench for two years and not getting the chance to show what they can really do on a stacked team. Some of this dispersion of talent was due to scholarship restrictions which had been put into place and now have been relaxed. Part of it is the expansion of the internet and television to include many of the smaller conference which in the past would never see the light of day.

The second reason is the capping of the exhibition games which can be held. Teams can only get in two games which won't count on their schedule. While Kentucky played one junior college, and one worthy opponent in Seattle, they did not have the chance to play two or three more games like in years past where teams would play multiple traveling all-star teams in order to tune up. Those all-star teams were mostly ex-college players, a better test for a Kentucky than a game against a junior college.

Finally, games are starting earlier and earlier in the season. It seems like Midnight Madness was only two weeks ago. While this should be more than enough time to get ready for Gardner-Webb when you are Kentucky, it does cause trouble. Imagine preparing for three teams with less than the normal amount of film. Add to that being a rookie coach at the most passionate basketball school in the country where your margin for error is a little slim. Add to that having to convince players you didn't recruit that you are now the man that can take them to the next level.

It is a lot to deal with. Most teams couldn't do it. We saw Memphis struggle. We saw Connecticut struggle. And we have seen others in the past struggle too.

This loss won't mean a thing come tournament time. Here's hoping that Kentucky is in a 4-13 match-up with the winner of the Atlantic Sun conference.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 7, 2007

Over Expansion? You Bet

I made mention of it in the MRI Says article for today. There are now 341 teams ranked in the MRI for basketball.

This is the eight year of the MRI for basketball, and in that time, the list has grown from 320 teams in that first season. That is a 6.5% increase in the number of teams all trying to get a small piece of the pie which is the NCAA basketball tournament.

That is just the net increase overall. Remember we had that nice team from Birmingham Southern who came and left in a flash when after making it to Division I, the athletic department decided to head back to Division III and actually shut down their basketball program for a length of time. (The basketball program is back now. If you think you are good enough, you can fill out a questionnaire to be considered for the team.) It was strange timing. Birmingham Southern finished second in the Big South to Winthrop that season, and their coach was named the conference coach of the year.

Don't think this is going to stop in the years ahead. Over the next few years, expect to see seven more teams added to the list, including the return of Seattle University and Houston Baptist to the Division I ranks.

However, when the final seven finish their transition, there will be no more, at least for four years. The NCAA Division I committee was so worried about teams jumping into Division I for more exposure and more money, they suspended reclassification in August. They will not accept any more applications until 2011.

The MRI and my hands thank them. I don't have an issue with teams with success at the Division II level making the jump. That is Seattle University. That is UC Davis. I do have an issue when teams come from nowhere, without the same competition level and think that they can make it at the top level. There is a reason so many of them clump at the bottom of the MRI standings. They aren't ready.

At least until 2012 my prep for each season will take a little less time.

Posted by bmiraski at 5:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 19, 2007

I Thought Stanford Was One of Those Smart Schools

You need to be smart to get into Stanford, but apparently all those academics can fry your brain while you are there (well, academics, or the other stuff that is fairly prevalent in the San Francisco Bay area).

Case in point, sophomore center Brook Lopez. Last season, Lopez made the PAC-10 All-freshman team, after averaging 12.6 points and 6 rebounds a game for the Cardinal (18-12, last season).

However, earlier this month, Lopez was suspended from the team for failing to meet academic standards. He responded saying that he was taking full responsibility for this and apologized to his team and the school.

Apparently, sometimes these things don't sink in.

Lopez was suspended indefinitely today for skipping two days of classes and a practice during the last week.

I could be wrong, but usually you improve your academic standing by going to class. And here I thought Stanford was a smart school.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 17, 2007

Kelvin Sampson = Teenage Girl

Woah, a basketball story? Yes. In the middle of all those football upsets on Saturday, there was a small little event called March Madness.

And less than a few hours later, there was the first big shocker of the season.

Kelvin Sampson is apparently no better than a teenage girl, forever on the phone, forever talking when he should be doing homework. In case you missed the story, Sampson is being punished by Indiana for recruiting violations related to phone calls that he participated in, despite being under probation by the NCAA.

New details about the phone calls were released today, which slightly changes the initial story around Sampson's involvement. However, the $500K dent in his checkbook remains.

You have to look at Sampson and say, "What are you thinking?" to even come close to being involved in something like this. Sampson's own personal friends can't believe that a coach with this much experience, this much time under the NCAA system, would be so careless as to let him be caught for the same offense that got him in trouble at Oklahoma.

Yes, Sampson, can't stay off the phone, no matter what the consequences.

Reading the comments across the nation, there is a very divided camp within the Hoosier faithful. Some, who were wary when Sampson arrived are even more on edge after this. Those who stuck with Sampson even when there were question's about Eric Gordon's sudden change of heart from Illinois to Indiana, are even starting to wonder.

And then there is the faction which tries to pass off this repeated offense as no big deal. This is a group which believes that the media is just trying to stir things up and that those outside of the Indiana basketball community shouldn't even have the right to question the actions of the coach. We apparently don't understand Indiana basketball, so we can't understand this. I can't agree with that logic.

If that were the case, would you ever criticize your coach for doing something that would be, in the end, beneficial for the team? No, you would only ever say something when you were hurt. Sure, look the other way now, but when the sanctions come in, you will be the first to complain that he should have been fired when this first occurred.

You need an outside source to shed the light on what is going wrong inside your program. That's the media's job, and you should probably thank them in this case. Maybe now you won't be surprised when something else comes up which might make you question your support of the coach who finally managed to win again at Indiana. Now, you know how he did it, with a little tarnish on all those trophies in the display case.

I am not saying that this is the worst offense in the world, but it is one that Sampson himself called "sloppy".

Sloppy just doesn't cut it in big time college basketball.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 1:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 18, 2007

Thoughts on Saturday's Second Round

I didn't know we had to get through the first round for the excitement in the tournament. From the opening tip of the Ohio State-Xavier game, well into the night, we were treated to some close exciting games for a change. 4 Overtime periods; last second shots to tie or win; great, gritty basketball, leaving everything on the court.

These are the games we are used to seeing in the opening round as teams want to prove they are Cinderella. These are the games we take off work to watch. These are the games that make the tournament "THE TOURNAMENT." And we finally got them.

1. Every team that makes the Final Four, or wins a championship, needs a game that they struggle in and is almost an upset. This could be Ohio State's game. I give a lot of credit to Ohio State for not losing focus despite trailing in the game. Ron Lewis was magic with his game tying three point shot at the end of regulation. This is especially so since the entire Xavier team knew the ball was going to him. And then Ohio State did what it did quietly for the first ten games of the season - just win. Without Greg Oden that is. The Buckeyes almost looked more comfortable without him on the floor. Perhaps it was the release of the pressure of trying to get it to the large man inside.

2. One side note on Oden. Despite his size, I for one would like to see him play another year in college. While he has the size and the ability to make it in the NBA, I think he would very much benefit from another year of banging inside, fully healthy, against the Big Ten, a conference known for its physical basketball. Why do I say this? I think we could see that another big man on the floor can frustrate the large Oden. He is not used to having other players of size against him. And that will be a problem in the NBA where he will no longer be a man among boys out on the floor. A little polish to his skills, especially his movement in the post against a larger defender, will make him the sure fire success that everyone thinks he is.

3. So how about Butler? They have now likely set up a game with Florida, similar to the one back in 2000 which I am sure none of us will forget the ending on. Florida rode that victory in the first round to a National Title game appearance. They are "expected" to make another run like that this season. However, with the way Butler is playing, I think little David, albeit with a lot more respect this season, could stop them. This is especially true if Florida suffers from the line like Maryland did against the Bulldogs. Down the stretch was especially painful for the Terrapins. The other area where Butler can force the Gator hand? Turnovers which have been known to get Florida off their mental game. And finally, AJ Graves needs to have another game like on Saturday to take down what should be the heavily favored Florida.

4. I give Boston College a lot of credit. I didn't think they would be able to play at all with Georgetown. They stayed with them very well though. In the end it was Georgetown's significant size advantage that gave them the win. That size advantage should again help them against Vanderbilt, although they will need to come up with some good perimeter defense to stop the Commodores, who seem destined right now.

5. Vanderbilt was the team I said reminded me of West Virginia from the past two years, and they continue to live up to it. They struggled from three for the first half of the game against Washington State, but they picked the right time to get hot against the Cougars. The Commodores just kept knocking them down from the start of the second half, including a 9-0 run at one point to close the gap. And in overtime, it was Vanderbilt looking like Washington State with some tough defense that was the Cougars claim to fame over the season. Give a lot of credit to Derrick Low from Washington State, their leading scorer in the game, who refused to lose and made some key baskets to extend the game. I look forward to seeing this Vandy team take on the tough Georgetown next weekend.

6. I know we all wanted Virginia Commonwealth to be George Mason from last year. This was especially so after they pleased about 98% of the country by beating Duke. But the truth is that while Virginia Commonwealth had a lot of the attributes of the George Mason squad from last year, this was not the balanced team that the Patriots had put on the floor. There is no doubt that they gave Pittsburgh all they could handle. The tough defense that helped them win the turnover battle against Duke was still there, although it came on too late to get them the win. However, what really did them in was the lack of size to bang on the boards. That was something that George Mason was continually able to trot out last season. OF the teams left, do we have a George Mason type team? Maybe Winthrop, but they will need to be hot from long range in order to think that Craig Bradshaw and his size will be the difference.

7. "Psycho T" Tyler Hansbrough lost his mask for the game against Michigan State, and I think Michigan State was hoping later that it would come back. Give Tom Izzo credit. Playing with a team that was in most cases less talented, he game planned well for the big man and the rest of the Tar Heels. Say what you want about Michigan State's record, but this was a quality team that deserved its tournament place, and they performed very well all season. The problem is that they ran into the buzz saw that is North Carolina. I know there are a lot of UNC-haters out there, much like Duke-haters, and that North Carolina was the pick for most to be the first #1 seed to go down, but the computer really likes this team, and despite their youth, they have a chance to make a big story in this tournament. Back to Hansbrough though. You can't fault 33 points and nine boards. His shooting touch look much improved without the big plastic blinder on his head also. Everyone should root for Texas today so that we can see Hansbrough and Kevin Durant on the same floor next Friday in East Rutherford.

That's all for now. If I can come up with something interesting after that very sloppy game between Indiana and UCLA, I will throw that out there later. The only thing that sticks in my mind is that it was very reminiscent of the game between the Bruins and Memphis last season. Thank goodness that this one came a few rounds earlier, and was almost a side note on what was a great day of basketball.

Enjoy the games.

Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 9:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 17, 2007

Thoughts on Friday's First Round

Given the lack of non-chalk in the first day of the tournament, we had to hope for something on Friday to save our collective tournament watchability. Not that there haven't been games that made us fear for a while, but this season has severely been lacking in the gut wrenching first round endings.

By far, my favorite game of the day was watching Wisconsin get down big to scrappy little Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. As we were reminded again and again, this was a school that didn't even have an athletic program 8 years ago. And on Friday, they scared a good portion of the country as they jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Wisconsin and then were still hanging strong with a 27-19 lead at the half.

Of course, by that point, Wisconsin had adjusted and were on their way back, but it was nice to see the little school that no one thought could do it come close for a while. The announcers even over reacted at one point wondering if Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan should put in injured center Brian Butch to provide a little spark.

In the end, Ronnie Arrow and the Islanders couldn't do it, but it made for some great drama and some bracket scrambling among those watching.

Other thoughts on the day:
1. Memphis just toyed with North Texas. Anyone who thinks that Friday's game was proof that Memphis isn't that great and excels based on weaker competition doesn't know the Tiger team. Part of what ailed Memphis was early foul trouble for leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts. Losing him for the final 10 minutes of the first half gave North Texas some life, but it was obvious by the late flurry of scoring by Memphis that they were not going to let a little set back worry them. They are still the toughest out that no one is looking at.

2. Virginia was hot, which was key to them winning any game. Sean Singletary was at one point outscoring the entire Albany team. This should probably give Virginia some lift, but knowing that they are now going to be facing Tennessee who put up 121 on Long Beach State probably worries them a little bit.

3. UNLV was hot when they could actually be the "Running Rebels", but Georgia Tech was able to adjust and stop them in the end. I think Wisconsin's quick guards should be able to slow them a little bit. In addition, the already mentioned Badgers have to take advantage of size better and not get clogged up on the floor as they did against the Islanders.

4. Notre Dame, our upset defeat of the day, didn't take advantage of its combined size inside. While Winthrop does sport 6-10 Craig Bradshaw, Notre Dame should have had the personnel to deal with that. Sometimes just having the greater number of big men is what is important. Look at how much better Wisconsin played Greg Oden and Ohio State when they can put multiple big men on the floor at once against them. The same concept should apply here. And when the Irish big men got into foul trouble, that just opened the way for a long run by the Eagles.

5. Speaking of Winthrop, I think they are prime for a run to the Sweet 16, especially after watching how Oregon played against Miami (Ohio). The Ducks were totally hit and miss on defense and they won't be able to play that way against Winthrop. Oregon, whose run through the PAC-10 tournament made them a hot favorite for many entering this tournament have sure changed a lot of minds after Friday.

6. Dumb announcer moment of the day? Greg Gumbel, taking the nation to the end of the Creighton - Nevada game said "Creighton not yet ready to call it a game yet." At the time, Creighton was down by 3 with 30 seconds remaining in overtime. If the Blue Jays had given up at that point, I would have been shocked.

7. It is a shame that Creighton lost. One of the most explosive players, and important to his team, in the tournament is Anthony Tolliver who was again a stud against Nevada. It is too bad that we will not get to see him play one more game this season.

8. How difficult is preparation for a tournament game? Kentucky started freshman guard Dwight Perry instead of normal starter Bobby Perry because an assistant coach turned in the wrong line-up to the official scorer. Perry, the Dwight-version, fouled three seconds into the game so that he could be replaced by Perry, the Bobby-version. More funny was how relieved Dwight Perry looked once he sat on the bench.

9. Contrary to popular opinion, Miami (Ohio) head coach Charlie Coles is not the Crypt Keeper from Tales From the Crypt. He is only 65.

10. Despite Illinois's lead early in their 12-5 contest against Virginia Tech (no guaranteed upset in that game this year. There goes all those bracket rules, like Duke always wins their first game), you could tell they were headed for a little trouble. For starters, their defense was over-committing on every shot that Virginia Tech took. Brian Randle showed his "guns" on an early dunk, but then later couldn't hit a free throw which normally requires a bit less strength. One was even an air ball. The poor free throw shooting has been a trend in this tournament, and was the killer for the Illini.

11. Holy Cross and Southern Illinois may have set the progress of basketball back about 20 years based on their game Friday. I really thought Holy Cross had the ability to beat Southern Illinois, based on the similar style of play. Too bad the smaller team from the smaller conference tired down the stretch.

Enjoy Sunday, when these teams play again. Look for their winning percentage chances Sunday morning.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 16, 2007

Demise of Duke Overblown

It is no secret that Duke is hated across the country. Success breeds contempt and no one has had greater success even in down years than Coach K and the Blue Devils.

Last night's win by Virginia Commonwealth over Duke, therefore, was met across the country with numerous cheers. No, this wasn't the great Duke teams of old. This team had problems like almost every other team this season, but it was still a good team. And Virginia Commonwealth was not the easy first round opponent that Duke is used to facing. Truthfully, VCU probably got too low a seed for the success that they had this season, including a regular season and conference tournament victory in the CAA.

However, there is no reason to believe that Duke has collapsed like the headline which greeted us all on CBS Sportsline this morning:

Freeman: VCU exposes downfall of mighty Coach K Put a fork in the old Duke. The Rams add a little spice in what's a lackluster first round, handing the now-ordinary Blue Devils their first opening-round defeat since 1996.

Did I read that right? The downfall of the mighty Coach K? Coach K is destined to pass his mentor Bob Knight as the all-time wins leader in men's college basketball. He will likely be the first coach to pass 1000 victories. And yet, Mike Freeman thinks that Duke has lost its luster.

The real truth is that Duke hasn't lost its luster. This was just a down year.

No one outside of Lexington, Kentucky talks about the demise of the Wildcats (although they might when they lose to Villanova later today). No one spoke this season about the demise of Connecticut. They all gave the excuse that they were a young team. No one spoke of the demise of Syracuse, although the Orange had trouble winning at home for the first time in my memory (I spoke of it, but did anyone listen?).

So why does one loss signal the end of a Duke dynasty which will likely be right back on top next season.

Let's not forget that over the past four years, Duke has seen an exodus of players to the NBA unlike any it has seen in the past. Last year, the team had to count on JJ Redick and Shelden Williams almost exclusively when they should have still had players like Luol Deng still roaming the floor as a third option. You don't think it would have been nice to have a senior Deng this year? Or if Eric Boateng hadn't transferred, maybe Duke would have had a more flexible inside game?

The core of this team is still young. They managed to win games with a majority of their core team being underclassmen. They have great size coming in next season to help shore up the middle. So why should we worry about this Duke team?

The truth is we shouldn't. And we shouldn't exaggerate a single loss like Freeman did.

Embarrassing was the word of the night as this was one of the worst losses in modern Blue Devils basketball history.

One of the worst losses? They lost by two to a very good team that didn't get any publicity at all. They didn't play well, but there is no shame in losing to this VCU team who was in the final top 25 of the MRI for this season. Should Duke be embarrassed? Maybe, considering some of the play on the court, but not because of this loss, a loss to a team which was primarily built from the sweat of a former Duke player, Jeff Capel, now the coach at Oklahoma.

Here was Mike Krzyzewski getting thoroughly out-coached by Anthony Grant

No one out-coaches Coach K. His players might have been outplayed, but no one coaches a game more fiercely and intelligently today than Coach K. Period.

Now, the Blue Devils dynasty is officially done after suffering its first opening-round loss in over a decade. Goodnight, Dukies. You're not much better than Rutgers.

Rutgers? Really? I think Duke deserves a little more credit than Rutgers. And the dynasty is not over. Every dynasty has an off year here and there. The Chicago Bulls, the Green Bay Packers, and the New York Yankees all did. But no one called the end of their dynasties in their off years. And they came back to rise from the "ashes" just like Duke will.

The old Duke is dead. The new Duke is just another team.

No, this Duke team will be in the Top 10 next season, just like this year. The new Duke team will make a Sweet 16 run again next season. The new Duke team will not see another first round exit.

However, Mike Freeman should make an exit from his sensationalist journalism.

Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 12:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Thursday Thoughts

The tournament tipped off yesterday and I spent the better part of it perched on a stool watching every minute of every game that CBS felt fit to actually show.

And there wasn't much worth showing. Blowouts galore, only one true upset and for the most part the seeds held. However, that was to be expected on day one. The real action is tipping off now, and I imagine there are a lot of brackets out there which have a couple of double digit seed winners today.

I had a "beer mishap" before the later games, not of my doing so I have only limited notes on the day. However, here were a few thoughts that I took away from Tournament Thursday.

1. No one was at the game in Buffalo for Davidson - Maryland, which was a shame since that game was probably the best game overall until the late night slate.

2. I got a lot of crap for the MRI only liking 3 Big XII teams to make the tournament. After Texas Tech's pathetic performance, I would like everyone to take back what they said. They helped to prove that the league was Kansas, Texas A&M and Texas, and then everyone else. The league's only saving grace might be Kansas State making the final 8 in the NIT should they beat DePaul in the second round of that tournament. Bob Huggins has the coaching skill to do it, but I am not convinced he has the talent.

3. I still wish that the committee would have put together the Indiana-Texas Tech 7-10 match-up instead of the schlock we got.

4. Despite Texas Tech stinking up the floow, it wasn't like Boston College did much better. Georgetown should have no issues with them come Saturday.

5. The AT&T At The Half show is useless. They don't do anything. There was maybe one comment the entire day until dinnertime. It could be that Clark Kellogg made a big deal out of picking Stanford and then was stuck with his foot in his mouth the rest of the day. I don't know. But then don't insult my intelligence by thanking me for joining you when you didn't do anything at all but show me a live look at another game. Pointless. CBS's studio show might just be one of the worst out there.

6. ESPN actually had Digger and Dickie V make a pick in the UCLA-Weber State game. Did they use any brain power whatsoever to come up with the answer of UCLA in that one? Weber State was the 3rd worst team in the field. Although Texas Tech, George Washington, and Stanford tried to show us otherwise.

7. Anyone still think that Stanford should have been in the field? I got great joy out of standing and watching both Kellogg and the two studio guys on ESPNU pick the Cardinal and then having Louisville just run over them. I think the biggest lead I wrote down was 28 points. That was just pathetic. And those who think that Louisville got it easy by being at Rupp, I can guarantee that any real Kentucky fans there will cut Pitino and the Cardinals no slack.

8. I spent Wednesday night filling out my bracket and made the comment that Vandy reminds me of West Virginia from the last two years, only without all the size. That was my main reason for putting them through to the Sweet 16 despite the Commodores not having the MRI numbers that I normally like to have (This was the same with the Mountaineers in years past). Washington State will have its hands full.

9. I think four losses in their last 8 games, and a few scares made everyone forget how good Butler is. There really was no choice except to pick the Bulldogs. Old Dominion is good but not the 12-5 upset you were looking for. Putting my stake on two today: Illinois and Arkansas both win.

And that was when the beer came. I didn't even have time to scribble anything on the Duke game, although I think Paulus wanted to be J J Redick so bad that he forgot he has the rest of his team. But more on the Duke game in a bit.

I'll continue to be watching through Friday. Look for Sweet 16 revised percentages for tomorrow's games later.

Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 11:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 12, 2007

Opening Round Game Racism

You want outrage over seeding? Don't complain if you are Duke, or Notre Dame, or Kentucky. If you want to really complain, you need to go to MAAC champion, Niagara.

The opening round game which will be played on Tuesday is entering its seventh year of existence, ever since the old WAC conference split into the WAC and Mountain West and the committee moved to preserve the 34 at-large bids.

This year's game features Florida A&M, who upset the regular season winner in the MEAC conference, and the Purple Eagles of Niagara. Niagara's coach, Joe Mihalich, was not very happy with this decision, especially since the opening round game, or play-in game, is supposed to match the two worst teams in the tournament, usually rated by the RPI of the teams. Niagara's RPI was better than five other teams in the field, making their selection for the game an anomaly.

But apparently this was done on purpose.

On Monday, selection committee chairman Gary Walters basically admitted that the move was done to avoid claims of racism.

Racism? For real? This is the first I had ever heard of it. But apparently there have been claims that the play-in is a handicap for schools from historically black colleges and universities, most of whom play in the Southwestern Athletic Conference and Mideastern Athletic Conference. (And apparently these claims have been wide enough that the Wikipedia entry on the play-in game doesn't require a citation for the statement.)

That was specifically the language addressed in Walters's statement to the press. The committee was "sensitive to the historically black colleges." This is basically admitting that Niagara was placed in the game, rather than the 2nd lowest RPI team, the SWAC's Jackson State, so that there was no appearance of a racial bias. The committee did do Niagara a favor though. Rather than the winner of the play-in game having to face the overall #1 seed Florida in their next game, as should be the case since Florida is slated to play in a Friday site, the winner will get the #4 overall top seed, Kansas. So much for little victories.

But is the claim of racism really the case? The regular season winners of the SWAC and MEAC are usually among the worst teams in the field of 65. There should be no reason to expect a better seeding by the committee solely because of the history of their universities. More interesting though is that teams from these two conferences have never met in the play-in game, and I have never heard an "apology" from the committee chair in the past.

In 2000-1, the first season of the play-in game, the two teams playing were Northwestern State and Winthrop. Northwestern State was 18-12 overall and won the Southland's bid in a major upset. Winthrop was one of the worst 4 teams in the field and really could not complain. The MEAC champion that year was actually a very good Hampton squad, who pulled one of the only four 2-15 upsets ever beating Iowa State in the first round. The SWAC champion Alabama State did get a #16 seed, although there was no danger of both teams receiving that fate.

In 2001-2, the game saw Siena of the MAAC and Alcorn State of the SWAC play. Siena was an upset winner of their conference and was among the bottom two teams overall. Curious was the omission of Montana from that game who finished the season 14-14 against D-1 teams after winning their conference tournament. The MEAC champion that season was again Hampton, who again received a #15 seed, but couldn't duplicate their miracle against Connecticut.

In 2002-3, the committee was saved this hard decision when 13-16 UNC-Asheville won the Big South tournament. Both the MEAC and SWAC champions were among the bottom 4 teams into the tournament.

In 2003-4, we may have seen the committee make a subtle move, placing Lehigh into the play-in game. Lehigh was among the four worst teams in the field that year, but the MEAC champ (14-16 Florida A&M) and SWAC champion (Alabama State) were the two worst. However, since Lehigh was an upset winner in the Patriot league, very weak that season, they didn't have much room to argue.

In 2004-5, the committee was again saved as the 11-18 Oakland won the MCC conference title. They played SWAC champion Alabama A&M, at 16-13, the second worst team in the field. MEAC champion Delaware State was among the bottom four teams.

And last, in 2005-6, Monmouth and Hampton, two teams which were barely above .500, played in the game. The SWAC champ, Southern was an obvious 3rd worst choice, but Monmouth's record kept them in the game.

So would there have been any reason to believe that racism in some way has played a part in these 6 previous games? In almost every game, there has been a major upset winner from another conference keeping the pairing from being the MEAC and SWAC. So, this year, when clearly the worst two teams were from those conferences, could anyone really have complained?

That truly makes it exceptional that Gary Walters felt the need to call attention to the fact that the committee was sensitive to the historically black colleges. He then continued the argument by saying that the committee looked at the schools in the bottom part of the bracket that didn't win both their regular season league title and the conference tournament to fill the pairing for the game. Niagara finished second in the regular season despite winning the conference tournament. Funny thing is so did both Jackson State and Florida A&M.

I guess the real question should be for Walters and the committee. Clearly, Niagara deserved a better fate, most likely as a #15 seed in the bracket. Shouldn't we be sensitive to those kids, who won a tougher league, even though they finished the season 2nd going into the conference tournament? Shouldn't they get the benefit of the doubt over two teams in the same situation and be allowed to play in a true first round game as opposed to a game on Tuesday that almost no one will watch?

I think the answer this year is clearly yes, and that there is enough evidence to show that racism would have played no part in the decision to match what were the two worst teams, Florida A&M and Jackson State.

The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 11:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 7, 2007

Rebuttal

I should have seen this coming. The biggest danger is catching up to the rest of the world with the MRI is that now my bracket projections are current and everyone is scrutinizing them from the Bracket Project Website.

So, in order to respond to some of the comments you will undoubtedly see on the site, I have put together this full rebuttal.

Let's talk a few baseline topics first.

#1: If you look at the Bracket Project, you will notice that I have a number of seeds in difference to the rest of the projected brackets. There is a good reason for this in that I use a totally different methodology than the other brackets. Without having looked at all 30 of them, I would assume that most if not all are done by hand, by a human, with a brain crunching most of the hard numbers.

The MRI bracket projections are different. The MRI bracket projections, other than placing the teams into the regions according to the bracketing rules and automatically including conference tournament winners, are done by computer, using only computer numbers, and registering out a result based on the rankings of teams in the MRI. That's it. No grand scheme of all the top three teams from a major conference assumed to be in. No bias for or against a certain conference. Just computer numbers.

This means, despite some of the comments, there is no bias. There can't be. I have no human input into the numbers outside of entering them by hand into the spreadsheet which calculates the ratings.

Now you may say that the Dance Card site does the same thing, and projects with greater accuracy the seedings, the teams, etc. That is true, because the Dance Card formula looks at the metrics around a team as established by the tournament committee as things they look at for selecting teams to the tournament. They essentially built a model to represent the brains of the committee. The MRI doesn't do that.

The MRI uses its own factors and strength of teams to pick the field. That is what leads to baseline #2.

#2: While I "seed" teams and place them into nice little brackets because that is what everyone is used to seeing when they come look for projections, that doesn't mean that a seed in my brackets is saying the same thing as a seed in the bulk of the other brackets.

What a seed in the MRI bracket is saying is that the team, over the course of the season, has shown that they will, on average, perform at the expected level of a seed of that number in the tournament. That means any team seeded lower than #9 will be gone after the first day. Anything lower than #4 will likely be gone after the second round, and so on to where the #1 seeds are what the MRI sees as the likely Final Four teams.

That doesn't mean there can't be upsets, or changes based on actual match-ups.

For an example, let's take a look at George Mason from last season.

From about the middle of February to the end of the season the Patriots bounced around the MRI ratings hanging in the #15 - #18 range. They were up there earlier in the year too but didn't get the attention that their high rating did at the end of the year. The reason? I projected them for most of the month of projections as a #5 seed based on the numbers.

So what does a #5 seed in the MRI projections mean? It means that they have a good shot of winning their first round game and an outside chance of making the Sweet 16 based on actual match-ups. However, putting a mid-major team at that level, especially before the tournament starts, means a lot of push back from the masses at large.

You can only imagine the emails when the tournament bracket came out and GMU was a #11 seed, and not only a #11 seed, but likely one of the last 4 teams to get a place in the bracket. They were matched against Michigan State who finished at #22 in the final MRI (projected and actual 6 seed) and that made the likelihood of an upset a tough deal since the percentages would be in the 50-50 range. Still, I went with George Mason in the first round and they were a winner.

Now, facing a North Carolina squad in the second round is a different story, because this is when a projected #5 seed should be dropping out. North Carolina finished #9 in the MRI (a projected and actual #3 seed) and should have been expected to handle a #5 seed. George Mason went on to pull the upset which started the country talking.

Now, if you had followed the MRI all season, a team like George Mason getting to the Sweet 16 should not have been so shocking. Yet how many out there were talking about what a story GMU was even though I had been "talking" them up all year with their high overall ranking.

(As a side note, the final MRI rankings of last year's Final Four teams entering the tournament were 8, 10, 13, and 18. Not a bad cluster of teams especially since the tournament didn't see a single #1 seed make the Final Four last season.)

So why do I go into this much detail on George Mason? Because the Patriots have a lot in common with this year's highly rated mid-major Davidson (although don't look past Virginia Commonwealth, also of the Patriot league, and a likely 1st round winner). Davidson is currently, entering the final week when most of the major conferences have their tournaments, at #16, a projected #4 seed. While that may be shocking, and it semi is for me also since they have made huge leaps in the standings during their tournament, remember that they are done playing. And they are within the pack of teams which could change greatly based on the results of the conference tournament games, because of how closely stacked all of the MRI rated teams from about #10 to #40 are this season.

While Davidson could potentially have the ability to make it to the second weekend of the tournament, a huge coup for a team from the Southern conference, the ability for them to hang onto that seed in the final projection is much less. More likely: Davidson drops to a #5 or #6 projected MRI seed and wins their opening round game before being beaten in the second round.

This year is interesting for the simple fact that no team from a smaller conference, despite last year's huge successes, is projected to make it to the second weekend. There is no Gonzaga this year. There is no Kent State, and as of right now, the closest things we have to George Mason are Davidson and VCU, who are likely second round knock outs.

Again, to stress, a #4 seed in the MRI projections doesn't mean that I think a team will win it all. By far that is not the case. But they do have the ability to win not only a single game but maybe a second game in the tournament. That is all that a #4 seeding tells me. Ask yourself what you would expect for a #4 seed to do in the tourney. At best, if all seeds hold, you would see them going to the 2nd week of the tourney and being in the Sweet 16 but that is it. No final four, no championship. Just winning two games. So what does my placement of them at a #4 seed mean? It means the MRI thinks they have the potential to win 2 games. Not 3, not 6, just two.

And that is all based on the match-up they get because the committee could place them so they are playing one of the 15 teams rated above them at this point in the season and they could crash out in the 1st round. I will be sure to let you know if that happens come Selection Sunday.

So, as I have received comments and emails, I have made a list of the teams that right now are at the front of everyone's mind as to their placement in the MRI brackets. The teams are Davidson (covered above), Washington State, USC, and Virginia. There was some chatter about Texas A&M and Memphis being on the #1 line this week, but #1 vs. #2 line is very difficult to decide at this point, and giving the baseline above, all it means is that it could be possible (percentages holding) for those two to be playing into April.

What I find funny about the emails and comments I get are that they don't come with reasons why someone should be ranked higher other than "They are #2 in the PAC-10" which is only important if you think the PAC-10 was as great as everyone said they were, or "30 of the other 31 brackets have them in". It is nice to be the dissenter in the group. Maybe there is a reason for that dissent (think 12 Angry Men). But as I don't get a lot of argument back as to why they think the teams should be higher other than everyone else said so, I have to take a shot to explain the reasons why things are the way they are.

Remember, the MRI rankings and projections are different and shouldn't represent what you are used to thinking. Rather it should give you a different way to look at things.

So let's start with Washington State. And to talk about Washington State, let's look at another team which finished second in a Western Conference, UNLV of the Mountain West. Both teams finished at 24-6. So with record and conference standing overall being equal, who should get the higher seed?

In the latest edition of the Joe Lunardi brackets, Washington State is a #3 seed while UNLV is a #4 seed. In the MRI projections, UNLV was a #10 seed and Washington State a #13 seed and the last team "IN".

Washington State - SOS: 108, 8-4 on road, 4-0 neutral, Non-Con SOS 319, Non-Con RPI: 78, Conf RPI: 28, Conf SOS: 60, vs Top 25: 2-2, vs 26-50: 0-2, vs 51-100: 9-1

UNLV - SOS: 28, 8-5 on road, 1-0 neutral, Non-Con SOS: 34, Non-Con RPI: 11, Conf RPI: 20, Conf SOS: 78, vs. Top 25: 3-3, vs. 26-50: 1-0, vs. 51-100: 5-1

Looking at the numbers, who should be the higher seed? Other than a slightly better SOS for playing in the PAC-10 conference, almost every number is in favor of UNLV.

Let's also look at how Washington State actually performed on its schedule. I throw out that it would be difficult to point to one game on Washington State's schedule where they established themselves as a great team. They beat Arizona twice which are good wins, but the margin of those victories were 6 and 4. If they were that much better than the Wildcats, they should have beaten them by more than 4 at home. Obviously Washington wasn't as good as they were assumed to be at the beginning of the season, so does a 28 point victory over the Huskies at home or does the 4 point win on the road say more about Washington State?

Honestly, the Cougars haven't done anything to prove to me they deserve to be in the Top 12 teams in the country. They haven't won a signature game by double digits (No, Gonzaga and Washington don't count). The Cougars get out-rebounded by their opponents, something that will haunt them in the NCAA tournament and obviously did against UCLA this season. Given the schedule they played, they should not have a deficit in the rebound column. Their saving grace may be turnovers where they do have a substantial gain on their opponents.

If you look at UNLV in comparison, a team that played a tougher schedule overall, they were essentially even in rebounding with their opponents and they were about the same level in turnover margin as the Cougars. Where UNLV really excelled though was in their ability to put opponents away. They beat Nevada by 9, Air Force by 10, and Utah twice, once by 13. In general, the Running Rebels knew how to beat the opponents they were supposed to beat. They didn't struggle to put away lesser teams like Washington State. That said, UNLV didn't distinguish itself to be a #4 seed either, but overall performance should give way to UNLV being ranked higher than the Cougars.

USC: 21-10 SOS: 61, 4-6 on road, 2-1 neutral, Non-Con SOS: 185, Non-Con RPI: 66, Conf RPI: 36, Conf SOS: 50, vs. Top 25: 2-3, vs. 26-50: 2-2, vs. 51-100: 7-3 MRI: 74

I don't know what the fuss over USC is. Despite their 11-7 conference record (against a conference that I don't think was as strong as everyone thought), where do the numbers above lead you to think that they are an "IN" team? Their RPI is very low for a major conference selection as an at-large, albeit higher than Washington State. They have one of their conference losses against Arizona State, who has trouble getting out of its own way at times. They have absolutely no signature win despite beating Oregon and Arizona twice each (none by double digits). They beat Wichita State when everyone thought they were the next coming of Gonzaga, and then we later found out they weren't.

I am more concerned that they lost to Washington State twice, a team that the MRI has mired as one of the last 4 in. If the computer is placing Washington State in, it makes it difficult to put USC ahead of them into the field. Add in that USC has lost to Washington and Washington State as its last two games and that they need to really show something in the conference tournament since they are currently #74 in the MRI (despite being closer to being in prior to the last two losses). This is not to say that USC isn't a good team (much better than an average team), but they haven't really shown their ability to string together more than 2 wins in a row at times. That bothers me and it hurts their computer numbers overall.

Virginia: 19-9 SOS: 42, 3-6 on road, 0-2 neutral, Non-Con SOS: 165, Non-Con RPI: 80, Conf RPI: 22, Conf SOS: 32, vs. Top 25: 4-1, vs. 26-50: 2-2, vs. 51-100: 7-3 MRI: 63

Honestly, Virginia is the one team that I am going to have a hard time defending their placement in my rankings. Obviously their road/neutral record is not great, but that doesn't factor into the MRI. They didn't do wonderful in scheduling non-conference games, but they did a better job than Washington State. And honestly, their performance against the Top 100 is very respectable.

However, I contend that the Top 100 is a product of their conference. And within the conference, Virginia played one of the softest unbalanced schedules with the combined conference record of their opponents in the ACC actually being less than .500 (18 games under). They played all three bottom dwellers in the conference twice, while only playing UNC, Duke, and BC once. And combined in those five conference losses are defeats coming from Miami and Wake Forest. So despite a "tough" SOS from the their conference, they actually played the easiest schedule in the conference. Much of that conference SOS also comes from the decent overall records of their opponents and doesn't consider only conference games.

Virginia is actually the best positioned of those teams which aren't currently in my bracket but the world at large seems to think they should be. If they can win two tournament games and get to the tournament finals, the MRI will most likely have them moving into the field, but that might require wins against Duke, and either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. Neither of those are easy games given that Cavs have recently lost to Miami and Wake.

So, overall, there are the "crazy" teams that I am missing. Remember, I don't try to recreate what the tournament committee does. I do things differently and I don't use the same criteria to rank teams that the committee will ultimately use when they pick the field.

One thing to think about. Once the field is selected, my computer does a very good job of identifying which teams end up with too high a seed or too low a seed, and where the first round upsets will be. Last year, it was George Mason, and this year, we are all scrambling to figure out who will recreate the Patriots' run. And the MRI had GMU up there all season long and got flack for it. So this year, if the MRI has VCU or Davidson winning a few games, and they do, don't be surprised. You heard it hear first.

The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 9:35 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

December 20, 2006

Does Wichita State Warrant Their Ranking

Before I begin, let me say, I am of the mind that the Missouri Valley is the 7th best conference in the country. They deserve multiple tournament bids, and likely should get three or four this season. There is no doubt that from top to bottom, that is a tough conference to win in, and it can compete with the teams from the top 6 conferences. We have already seen wins this year to show us that. MIssouri State beat Wisconsin, Northern Iowa took out Iowa State and Iowa, Southern Illinois won against Virginia Tech, and Wichita State beat LSU and Syracuse.

Wichita State. They are one of five teams without a loss after beating Kennesaw State on Tuesday night. As a result, they have rocketed up the rankings to #8 in the country. I, however, am not sure the high praise is warranted.

Ken Pomeroy covered the Shockers earlier this week, looking at their schedule. To summarize, Pomeroy believes that Wichita State has one marquis win, coming on the road against LSU. The Tigers aren't as strong as everyone expected coming into the season, but they are still among the elite programs in the league and therefore, winning on their home turf is something to cheer about.

Other wins on the road that look good are Syracuse, George Mason, and Wyoming. Pomeroy dismisses the George Mason win, because they are definitely not the same team they were last season, and Wyoming is still coming back after a few off years. They may be 7-2 but they are not yet back to where they were a few years ago when beating Wyoming was a major win.

Syracuse is the one team that Pomeroy withheld judgement on. I think I might be ready to declare this less than impressive. The Orange lost to Drexel on Tuesday night. While I am excited that the Dragons managed their second Big East win of the year against Syracuse, it also came at the Carrier Dome. You have to wonder if the Orange have lost their mystique to drop two games now at a place that used to be an automatic loss for the visiting team, especially to teams like Wichita or Drexel. Since Carmelo Anthony left, they have not been the same team. Even that year, it took an amazing run in the tournament to get the title, something that was not expected from such a young team. Without Anthony though, the team struggled. With the Big East season still to come, it is doubtful that the Orange will end up in the top six of that league, and they will likely be scrambling to finish in the top half an be in position for a tournament bid.

Back to Wichita State, you have to wonder why they are getting so much attention then in the polls, given their schedule so far. Sure, going undefeated is a big feat, but to say that they are the 8th best team in the country might be stretching it.

Here are the other four teams without a blemish: UCLA, Clemson, Oregon, and Connecticut. Let's take a look at the computer rankings of those four teams.

UCLA - Pomeroy: 12, Sagarin: 1, Colley: 1, Massey: 1, MRI: 11...Avg: 5.2
Oregon - Pomeroy: 18, Sagarin: 5, Colley: 8, Massey: 10, MRI: 6...Avg: 9.4
Clemson - Pomeroy: 29, Sagarin: 6, Colley: 5, Massey: 7, MRI: 1...Avg: 9.6
Connecticut - Pomeroy: 7, Sagarin: 10, Colley: 26, Massey: 26, MRI: 4...Avg: 14.6

As to be expected, those four teams are at the top of the computer rankings. They may not be #1, based on how each computer determines strength of schedule, but they are all contenders on average. Now look at Wichita State

Wichita State - Pomeroy: 40, Sagarin: 8, Colley: 10, Massey: 8, MRI: 42...Avg: 21.6

They end up over #20 on average, and while some computers see them in the top 10, there are two here which do not. Without bias, I can say having the MRI agree with Ken Pomeroy at least means that the MRI is not too out of line on its view of the Shockers. Compared on average with the computer rankings, the human positioning of the Shockers just doesn't seem correct.

Now, it is no coincidence that the two computer rankings which have Wichita State out of the Top 25 are the ones that have their creators writing about the over reaction to the perfect record and the #8 ranking. Honestly, if Wichita State can get through the Missouri Valley Conference with only 2 or 3 losses, I think they definitely deserve their position in the top 10.

Every other team in a conference in the top 6 (read BCS) will have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to losing a couple of games in conference. However, we know that Wichita State will not be allowed that same leeway when it comes to losing, especially if the losses come against teams like Drake, Illinois State, or Indiana State. I do hope they can do it and manage to get a top 4 seed in the tournament, if only to see the look on Billy Packer's face when he has to announce the bracket.

But for right now, let's hold off on anointing Wichita State as a top 10 team. 40% of your computer friends feel very differently, and 60% have them barely in that position. Let's wait and see what happens when they play Missouri State, a team which is ranked higher in both the Pomeroy and MRI computers.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 6:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 5, 2006

The Jimmy V Classic

Today is my favorite basketball day of the year. No Championship is on the line, and no tournament berths are at stake.

Instead, the basketball world comes together for one night to celebrate the life of one its own, and help to save the lives of many more. Tonight is the Jimmy V Classic.

Jim Valvano lept into the spotlight when his North Carolina State Wolfpack defeated the Houston Cougars (of Phi Slamma Jamma) to win the 1983 NCAA Basketball Championship. Valvano ran around the court like a madman, just looking for someone to hug.

Jimmy V was stricken with cancer and less that 10 years after the celebration of his amazing victory, Valvano was fighting for his life. However, while cancer took away the life in his body, it never took away the life in his spirit or his drive and passion.

During his last few years, he dedicated himself to raising money for cancer research, not to save himself, but to help those that came after him. The Jimmy V Foundation was set up to do just that. When he announced the formation of the foundation, he was accepting the Arthur Ashe Award for Courage at the 1993 ESPY awards. This is probably my favorite speech of all time, at any event, anywhere, and you can read it at the Jimmy V Foundation website. (I would normally post it here, but the speech rights are owned by the foundation and there are no public domain videos of it. You can see a full length video here.)

It is rare that there is a charity where 100% of everything you contribute goes to research and the Jimmy V Foundation does just that. They recently received an endowment which allows them to give all of the donations to fight against cancer, not to pay bills. As I am sure is the case with many of you, a lot of people I know have been touched by cancer. Some have fought and won, others have fought and lost. I hope for a day when we can eliminate the second group and everyone fights and wins.

It is the holiday season and many of us are busy spending on gifts for our loved ones so there is probably not a lot of extra money to go around. If there is, please consider giving some to the Jimmy V Foundation.

I am sure Jimmy V would appreciate it.

"Don't Give Up, Don't Ever Give Up."

Posted by bmiraski at 5:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 30, 2006

Monson Resigns from Clemson

Apparently losing to Clemson by more than 20 is tough on a coach. However, it appears Dan Monson was less phased by the loss, than by the threat of a loss of money.

This story developed soon after I posted the ACC/Big Ten Challenge piece. Literally five minutes later, Monson was reported to be let go from his job, by his own choosing.

According to reports from ESPN's Andy Katz, Monson was given the choice earlier in the week whether to be fired or walk away. Walking away was guaranteed by the athletic director to give him more money.

And it did. Monson will be paid a little over a million dollars to leave, and will continue to receive his salary through March.

Monson took over at Minnesota after leading Gonzaga into the spotlight. I didn't think this was a good move when he did it. Minnesota was mired in controversy after Clem Haskins left. There were academic scandals, and I am sure there was more we never heard about. Monson had no chance, other than to make the program clean again. He did that, but couldn't get the Big Ten wins which would have saved his job.

Minnesota went from being a big name in the Big Ten to being an easy win under Monson. I think it will be some time before we see his name again in a big time coaching job.

He will be replaced by assistant coach Jim Molinari on an interim basis.

Posted by bmiraski at 8:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 24, 2006

Pre-Season NIT Final - Butler vs. Gonzaga

Last year was supposed to be the year of the mid-major. The Missouri Valley stormed into the NCAA tournament. The Colonial Athletic Association placed a team in the Final Four. Storied programs around the country struggled with their smaller foes all through the season.

And it looks early this season like the trend has continued.

Two schools which have been the poster children for small school success are set to take it to the big stage tonight as Butler and Gonzaga face off in Madison Square Garden. On the line, the Pre-season NIT championship.

Gonzaga rolled into the spotlight during the late nineties and never left. Over the years, they have been favored to get as far as the Final Four in the NCAA tournament. While the names in the jerseys change, the results stay the same. The Zags aren't going away anytime soon, and it continues to be a destination location for some of the best players from the West Coast, topping even some PAC-10 schools. Not bad for a little Jesuit institution that no one had heard of until current Minnesota coach Dan Monson marked them on the national collective conscious in 1999 with a huge run in the tournament.

Butler has not been as consistent over the years but have had their share of success. Competing in the Horizon league has made it difficult to win season after season, going up against Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Illinois-Chicago, and Detroit. However, Butler did make the tournament after the 1999-2000 season and was a breath away from a win in overtime over Florida. They went again under Thad Matta the next year and made the second round. They made the Sweet Sixteen a couple of years later, keeping the Bulldogs on the front of everyone's minds.

So who has the edge tonight in New York?

Well, it might be the underdogs from Butler once again based on the results this season.

Gonzaga might have the big names we remember in Derek Raivio, Jeremy Pargo, and the tongue twisting Pierre Marie Altidor-Cespedes, but Butler has the tougher defense.

The guard combo of A.J. Graves and Mike Green are averaging over four steals combined per game. And they are not the only pick pockets on Butler. Through the season so far, Gonzaga has had trouble holding onto the ball, turning it over almost as many times as they take it away. This will be a big advantage for Butler on the defensive end of the floor.

In addition, the Midwestern Bulldogs have enough depth in the front court to battle with Gonzaga's leading scorer Josh Heytvelt. The 6-11 sophomore has been averaging almost 18 points a game, against tough competition, including what will be former #2 North Carolina, and their star big man Tyler Hansbrough.

The real challenge for Butler will be rebounding the ball against the larger Gonzaga team. Drew Streicher comes off the bench for Butler and leads the team with five boards a game. At only 6-7, the junior will be undersized compared to the Zags who feature at least four players taller than him.

If Butler can play their tough style of defense and get a few runs like they managed against Indiana and Tennessee, the Bulldogs should be going home to Indiana a winner. Otherwise, the Zags will be talked about once again as ready to steal the show come March.

Both teams have been here before on the big stage. Now one of them has the chance to shine.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

November 15, 2006

Little Sisters of The Poor

There is the tendency come tournament time to make fun of teams with less that tough schedules. The most common saying is that the team got to where they were by beating up on the "Little Sisters of the Poor".

Well, Prairie View A&M, a team that probably won't be talked about come tournament time no matter who they play, may actually have decided to do just that.

On Tuesday night, Prairie View defeated the Southwestern Assemblies of God Lions 61-57. Not exactly the drubbing that they expected I am sure, but a win is a win, even if it doesn't count.

Speaking of wins, anyone seen what Savannah State has been doing this year? The infamous doormat of Division I is undefeated. Yes, you read that right, undefeated, and it isn't because they haven't played yet. They are 3-0 after defeating Clark Atlanta (DII), Jacksonville, and Mercer. The Tigers better not get too used to winning, even though they have two more gimmee games next on their schedule.

They travel to Illinois on November 21st. That should end whatever winning streak that Savannah State has at the time.

Posted by bmiraski at 5:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 14, 2006

The Mailbag is Open

My mail doesn't come like that pictured, but I usually try to address all the email that comes across. As we saw last February, I seemed to attract a lot of attention with my views on the seeding and placement in the tournament, and I spent a lot of the early year pleading my case. Of course, George Mason getting to the Final Four sure made the MRI look pretty smart with the #16 rating they had most of the season.

I was at dinner last night, and mentioned that I got my first letter of this basketball season. I figure it is a record. I had only made one post in order to get it.

It seems to follow a pattern. Football season goes quietly. I can say that a team is not that great, or is dragging, and nothing. However, as soon as basketball season begins, the flood begins.

So what began the flood is year? My article stating that Michigan State wouldn't amount to much this season because of their performance against Brown.

So, for the first email of the year, I present Mark, from Los Angeles, California:

"Brown plays a Princetonesque slow-down game that sucks the air out of the ball. I think you'll be seeing a lot of low scores against them. And you're absolutely right, you should be questioned for making a prediction after one game -- especially the first game. Should everybody be picking Michigan State to win the NC since in their second game they had 6 players score in double figures and wiped the court with a team who plays the kind of game 95% of the teams play, which is more indicative of how the season will go?

Btw, next time one team holds another team to a total of 35 points, don't try to spin it as a positive for the dominated team. It makes you sound like you have no idea what you're talking about."

Well, thanks Mark.

But honestly, I still think Michigan State is in trouble this year no matter what style of game they are facing. While they may be 3-0 to start the season, the record can be deceiving. But before I get ahead of myself, let me go back to Brown. In the second game of the regional, when they played Central Michigan, a team Youngstown State beat 74-50, they lost. And Central Michigan didn't score 45 points like the Spartans against that slow down game, they scored 71.

Plus, I think my point was that a team like Michigan State shouldn't be unprepared for a team like Brown, even if they play a different style. Tom Izzo had almost a month to prepare the team for the game. And he knows the type of game that Brown plays. This team is not ready for this season, no matter how much they dominated Youngstown State in their second game or The Citadel in their third.

And they should have dominated those teams. Last season, both teams went 6-21. No matter how great their recruiting, or how much improved their players may be over last season, they should not be able to compete with a team like the Spartans with better visibility and better ability to attract great players. These are teams picked to finish last in their conferences by everyone. If Michigan State didn't win like they did against Youngstown and The Citadel, then maybe the problems were deeper than I thought.

But maybe it is the messenger that is the problem here. Let me give you a man who knows this team even better than I do - the Head Coach, Tom Izzo.

During Izzo's press conference on Monday, his first statement was:

"We're a work in progress."

A work in progress which has struggled with a young lineup no matter how great their talent is. They are being out hustled on the floor by Izzo's own admission, which is unacceptable for a program of the caliber of Michigan State. They are turning the ball over way too much, even more than their opponents, opponents which we have already seen are not very good.

Coming back to the Youngstown State game, Michigan State did dominate, but part of that domination was the extra time to prepare. Again, Tom Izzo:

"We made Youngstown a big deal - the prep, the extra time, the walk through at seven in the morning - and I thought they responded very well."

It is not a good sign when you need extra preparation to get up to play a team like Youngstown State. The Penguins are not that great. Heck, I didn't even think they would get past Central Michigan like they did. It usually takes a few weeks for Youngstown to get their first win. They played The Citadel on Sunday, and won big again, despite the short time to prepare. But again Izzo was not pleased:

"If we play like this in New York, you guys will have a lot of time to hit the nightlife, because you won't have to write much. We have to improve drastically in the next couple of days."

Izzo now has 4 days to prepare to play one of the top young lineups in the game, in Texas. Texas's players are not making the mistakes that Michigan State is. Texas's team is more talented, despite being younger. Texas could honestly wipe the floor with Michigan State in New York on Thursday. And the schedule doesn't get easier from their with Maryland or St. John's the next day, Vermont after that, and a Boston College team, expected to be good, and that Vermont beat, two games later.

I am not saying that Michigan State won't be decent this year. I think they will improve over the season enough to maybe get into the 15 to 18 win range, but the Big Ten will again be a tough season. 15 to 18 wins is a step down from last season, and part of that is the losses from last season. I am not saying anything that we didn't already know about this team. Or that their coach didn't know about this team.

"We're a better basketball team than we were two weeks ago. The problem is we've got to get to be a lot better basketball team."

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 8:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 12, 2006

First "Big Game" of the Season?

It may not seem like it, but tonight's game between Arizona and Virginia could go a long way towards saying what the fate of these teams may be this season.

The Arizona Wildcats are coming off of one of their worst seasons under Lute Olson and despite a #10 ranking, have a lot to prove this year. They should be helped out by the recruitment of Chase Budinger, a 6-7 freshman who should give Arizona a major presence at small forward. Olson has called Budinger possibly the most talented recruit ever at Arizona which is saying a lot about the young wingman. Budinger was also the national high school volleyball player of the year last year, so you know that he can jump. He will be joining a strong line-up of Mustafa Shakur, Marcus Williams and Ivan Radenovic, to provide a high powered offense that may not have been seen in the desert since the 1997 championship.

The reason this is a big game though, is that they will be facing a Virginia team which could surprise this season. The Cavaliers return the top scoring backcourt in the country in Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds. The two alone could give defenses some headaches, but they also add some big time help inside which could make Virginia an all-around nightmare.

Chances are that Arizona will walk away with the victory tonight, but let's be honest. A big game from Virginia, possibly keeping it close or stealing a win, could say a lot about where the Cavaliers will end up in this year's ACC. They were picked pre-season to finish 8th, but that is by no means a given in the always tough twelve team league. They have enough talent to challenge not only for a top five finish but also a chance at a NCAA tournament bid for the first time in six years.

Keep an eye on Virginia tonight, and also look to see if Arizona is as good as everyone thinks they will be. Yes, this is a big game.

Posted by bmiraski at 5:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 10, 2006

Who Will Be This Year's George Mason?

The buzz is already starting. People are wondering who will show up and become the team that shocks the world this season. They are being tabbed "The Next George Mason".

ESPN tackled this issue on Wednesday night during their broadcast of the Maryland-Vermont game. The first to weigh in was Jimmy Dykes. I am not a huge Dykes fan. I have watched him the last few years on the late games on Monday nights and more than not I disagree with him.

So, I am not sure whether I should be happy or fearful of his pick for this year's George Mason as he revealed them.

His four picks, with his reasoning after:

Creighton - Why? Nate Funk and Anthony Tolliver

Winthrop - Why? 4 returning starters (Side note: Here I agree. Winthrop was this close last year to what would have been a huge upset of Tennessee in the first round of the tournament. My computer had them as one of the top Mid-Major programs in the nation, and they were under everyone's radar. Winthrop is for real, no matter what league they play in.)

Loyola-Chicago - Why? 5 Starters return from a team that won 19 games last year. (Side Note: The Horizon league better watch out. I was honestly hoping Loyola would get to the tournament last year. They should make it easily this time around, maybe even an at large bid?)

Drexel - Why? 4 returning starters, most importantly, Dominic Mejia

As much as I love seeing Drexel mentioned, I am not sure what I think about this. I think Drexel has what it takes to compete and win this season in the CAA, but I am not too sure if they have what it takes to win more than a single game in the NCAA tournament should they get that far. And I think Hofstra is the more talented team in the league. So to pick Drexel without picking Hofstra strikes me as a bit strange.

Tom Brennan, who knows a little bit about being a Cinderella in the tournament when he was the head coach of Vermont (and he can thank Taylor Coppenrath for that), agrees with me, selecting The Pride to make a little run. Doug Gottlieb went with Dykes's first pick, Creighton, specifically because of Nate Funk.

My four picks? Hofstra, as I mentioned is my first pick, if only because of their great returns in the backcourt. Only Virginia's starting backcourt returns more points per game. The Pride are my pick to take the Colonial, taking out George Mason and Drexel along the way. Second, Winthrop based on their returns and their experience last season in the tournament against Tennessee. Third, Wichita State. The Shockers were the Midmajor overlook last season since they ran into the George Mason buzz saw. Look for Wichita State to rebound and surprise. Last, the Dragons, despite what I said before (Hey, I picked Hofstra first). I have to go with my home team and Dominic Mejia. Look for Bashir Mason to get some pub near the end of the season and this team to overcome last year's defeats in the final five minutes to get to 20 wins.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 9, 2006

Two Days In - Two Teams Not to Watch

The college basketball season has started with the Coaches vs. Cancer classic, this year expanded into a very large tournament. One of the teams that will be playing in the semi-finals coming up is Maryland, who took care of their first two opponents, Vermont and Hampton, with less than a concern.

However, there are plenty of concerns for the Terrapins, who last season missed the NCAA tournament last year. The biggest concern I would have is what they have done to address their issues inside. Ekene Ibekwe is good, but he got beat up last season in the ACC and didn't give the Terps the power they needed on the interior. This season, I already see concerns with Maryland on the inside and this was against Vermont and Hampton. They will be overmatched again in ACC play and may struggle to make the tournament for a second straight season.

The other team that concerns me so far? Michigan State. Not much was expected this season for the Spartans, and if the game against Brown was any indication, I don't think much should have been.

Brown held Michigan State to 45 points last night. And it wasn't as if the Spartans shot poorly. They were over 40% from the field. But 45 points over 40 minutes should be very disturbing for Tom Izzo and the boys in green.

Their defense might have saved them. They held Brown under 30% shooting and yet they only won by 11. Had Brown been able to shoot better, I think we would have been seeing a very unhappy East Lansing today.

I am going to go out on a limb here this early in the season. Neither of these teams will be title contenders, and should they make the NCAA tournament, you are looking at two teams ripe for a first round upset.

Sure, projecting that from the first couple of games this season is dangerous, but I think in these two cases, I am safe.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 5:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 24, 2006

Richard Billingsley Has Had Enough

Do you know who Richard Billingsley is? You should.

Why? Because for the past 8-plus years, you have blasted him and a number of men like him.

They are the ones who developed the computer formulas used in the BCS. And Billingsley is, for one, tired of it.

In an open letter to not only the fans of the sport, but also to ABC and FOX, the college football expert reacts to the very harsh criticism which has been laid against him in the past week, corresponding with the release of the first BCS rankings.

Being one of those out there in the world with a computer ranking system for football (There are at least 75 others that you can see here), I have to say I agree with him.

I was shocked at the way that Craig James behaved on television this weekend. While John Saunders and Doug Flutie looked on and laughed, James held his laptop in the air and waved it at the camera as he spoke. He was blatantly antagonistic to those that spend a lot of time not only developing the ratings, but also updating them and keeping them current each week. As you can see from Billingsley's letter, James has never once attempted to learn the reasoning for the discrepancies between his own beliefs and what the numbers show. That ignorance to the work of not just one individual, but many, who have a very direct influence on the sport he covers is just uncalled for and Billingsley rightly attacks him for it.

On a personal note, I take great pride in what I do with regards to the rankings I generate, not only for college football, but also basketball, and a computer based "seeding" of teams for the NCAA tournament. It is the culmination of many hours of effort on my part and it is not without a great deal of thought despite being mainly driven by the numbers coming out of my computer.

I know firsthand the pain of the attacks that Billingsley is expressing. Last year, I was blasted repeatedly by fans of a few schools who were not rated highly in the MRI. I had them "out" of the NCAA tournament while many experts had guaranteed them as locks. These attacks came not only in comments here at MRISports.com, which I am sure many of you saw, but also in very harsh posts on message boards and other sites on the Internet. I am sure there were more that I didn't see, but those I did almost made me stop doing what I do. That's right. No more MRI, no more writing, no more MRISports.com.

Why? Because only one of the those making the comments made an attempt to understand what I had done, and understand how the MRI or the seedings were generated. And his understanding came not from one e-mail, but a long trading of discussion on the topic. In the end, we calmly agreed to disagree, but that peace was not achieved without some amount of learning on his part. The others, however, blindly spoke out without even trying to understand, or reading a disclaimer that I added into the bracket projections each week. More than anything, it made me sad that people were so blindly against another way of looking at things.

Last week, on FanIQ, I participated in a discussion which commented on how strange the computer polls looked in the first week. It was mentioned during that discussion that the computers do tend to look correct at the end of the season, and I applaud that realization.

So, before we totally dismiss the computers totally, I have a challenge for all of us, the Fans. I challenge us to take the higher standard that Billingsley asks us to in his letter. Let's work to understand those computers before we dismiss them as out of sorts or wrong. We all might just learn something.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 3:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

September 18, 2006

Duquesne Players Shot, Suspect Still At Large

It is not often that Duquesne gets any press in the MRI. They haven't finished in the Top 25 in my basketball rankings yet, and they most definitely haven't made the tournament since the MRI started.

And yet, it has been quite some time since we have had a tragedy like this one where multiple members of a single team are involved. The last one in my memory was the plane crash back in 1999 which took the lives of half of Oklahoma State's basketball team midway through the season.

Five Duquesne basketball players were shot coming out of a school sponsored party early on Sunday morning. The suspect fired into a crowd after approaching the players and then following them as they walked back towards the campus. The suspect is still on the loose. Shawn James, one of the injured players, relayed the story of shooting to Andy Katz of ESPN.com earlier today.

One player remains in critical condition while two others are still in the hospital. The other two players were treated and released.

Not that it is of any importance at a time like this, but basketball practice is set to begin on October 13. Given the nature of the injuries, it appears that Duquesne may be without the services of at least two of the players for a significant amount of time. Two of the injured players were transfers and would have had to sit out the season under NCAA rules.

Here's holding out hope for the remaining hospitalized players and that the police capture the shooter soon.

Posted by bmiraski at 6:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 1, 2006

The Final Four, April 1st, 2006

Sitting in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks are celebrating a second straight victory in the NIT. And while they are celebrating, the bigger championship is still to be decided. Playing for that championship are two teams that South Carolina knows well, LSU and Florida, currently seen as possible favorites for a finals rematch.

What does the MRI say about the Final Four?

George Mason(11) vs. Florida(3) -
For the casual fan, having George Mason in the Final Four is a surprise. Not so if anyone watched the preseason NIT earlier this year. Those fans remember the Drexel Dragons pushing Duke for 35 minutes before falling to the Blue Devils. Then the Dragons almost pulled off the upset against UCLA before mental errors in the final minute let the Bruins take the game. Drexel was predicted to finish in the bottom half of the Colonial conference, and they did. So, why should it be any surprise that the winner of the Colonial Conference, a conference that sported four twenty game winners, two of the final eight in the NIT and two bids in the NCAA tournament for the first time in over twenty years, should be able to compete at the top of its game?

Competing at the top of their game is exactly what George Mason will need to do if they want to continue their amazing run. The Gators have one of the deepest front lines in the game. Of course, so did Connecticut, the team that George Mason surprised to make its first Final Four appearance. But while Connecticut big men are deep, they don't run the floor like Florida. They don't have the ball handling skills like Florida. And they definitely don't have the tandem of Joakim Noah and Al Horford. The two were the keys to Florida's victory of Villanova to reach the Final Four and they will be the main key to Florida reaching Monday's championship game.

Noah and Horford have not only the post game, but they are able to handle the ball and pass as good as most guards in the league. The two will need to also step up their defense against Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Noah has been a consistent shot blocker all tournament long and his skills against Lewis and Thomas will both be pressed to score inside against him. Horford will provide the tough second defensive option inside to truly clog the middle and force the Patriot guards like Tony Skinn to beat them.

On the offensive side, Florida will also need a big contribution on the outside from Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey. Humphrey hits some big threes for the Gators down the stretch against Villanova and will be needed against the tough George Mason defense.

While the country is starting to come over to the George Mason side, including picking them second behind LSU for the championship, there is just too much athleticism on Florida to believe that the Patriots can pull off another upset. Of course, that is what everyone was saying back when George Mason was set to go against Connecticut. And we all know what happened there. The Florida Gators are turning forward the clock to midnight, turning Cinderella's magic ride back into a pumpkin.
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 79.00%

LSU(4) vs. UCLA(2) -
Many of the tournament games have been decided inside, especially those when LSU has been involved. Other than a last second shot which they needed to beat Texas A&M, LSU hasn't needed to worry too much about their guard play. Instead they have been living inside on the play of Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas. With Thomas jumping to the rafters and Davis holding off the lane, no one has been able to move inside against the Tigers.

So what makes the game against UCLA any different? It could be the play of Ryan Hollins, the seven foot tall center for the Bruins that has been holding off the middle all tournament long for them. Or maybe forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, the hero of the Gonzaga game. He certainly hasn't looked like a freshman throughout their four games to this point.

Chances are that the inside games of both of these teams are so evenly matched that the guard play is what will matter.

That is where UCLA should worry. They have been coming off some terrible shooting games when the ball has been more than two feet away from the rim. Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo might finally have to start hitting shots. Especially Afflalo, the Bruins' leading scorer this season who has been held in check for most of the tournament. Memphis's poor shooting was certainly talked about a lot, but the winners always get to write the history books. That is why a lot of people won't remember how poorly UCLA shot from the field and the free throw line in what was a closer than needed game between the two tops seeds in the Oakland Region.

You might think this is a good sign for LSU, but they haven't really needed top shooting from their guards in their games either.

So this may come down to the defense that UCLA and LSU put on the court and anything can happen. Garrett Temple's play against both Duke and Texas should be enough to have everyone believing in the Tigers but no one should be forgetting Farmar and the rest of the Bruins who shut down both Gonzaga and Memphis.

This game can go either way, and as the night cap, should be a fitting lead-in to the final game on Monday night.
MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 59.98%

Posted by bmiraski at 1:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 26, 2006

Clock is stopped at 11:59, Cinderella Still Dancing

Oh my! Oh my! Oh my!

George Mason pulls off what was an unbelievable upset. The Patriots will be making the trip to Indianapolis thanks to their overtime victory over the Connecticut Huskies.

Rashad Anderson couldn't make magic this time as the game ran out. The lead for George Mason, yes the lead, was too much for Connecticut to overcome in overtime with just Anderson's magic.

Marcus Williams tried all he good to will back the Huskies. Rudy Gay disappeared once he had four fouls. Hilton Armstrong and Josh Boone were beaten by the smaller Patriot team on the boards.

Lamar Butler, Will Thomas, Tony Skinn, Jai Lewis, and coach Jim Larranaga, keep on dancing. You've definitely earned it.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

MRI Predicts the Final Four - Sunday

The MRI is still stinging from yesterday. Two 80% confidence games, two losses.

Things to learn from that?

1. There is no way that Texas can win when LaMarcus Aldridge can't hit a shot from within 10 feet of the basket.
2. Even though they tried, Memphis can't win while Rodney Carney is in foul trouble and they only hit two three point baskets on the night.

It was painful as anything to watch the UCLA-Memphis game. Both teams were shooting terribly and UCLA didn't make it any better with their foul shooting.

So what does the MRI have to say today, to make up for yesterday's losses?

Washington Region: Connecticut (1) vs. George Mason (11)
MRI Predicts: Connecticut Confidence factor: 72.80%

Minneapolis Region: Villanova (1) vs. Florida (3)
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 59.93%

All I can say is Go Gators! Enjoy the games.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 25, 2006

MRI Predicts the Final Four - Saturday

The MRI is celebrating being correct on seven of the eight Sweet Sixteen contests.

With only seven games left in the tournament, the computer still has a chance to get all seven correct as it predicted them before the tournament started.

As for round by round, the computer is excelling even more.

So who will be the first two participants in the final four?

Atlanta Regional: Texas (2) vs. LSU (4)
MRI Predicts: Texas Confidence factor: 79.16%

Oakland Regional: Memphis (1) vs. UCLA (2)
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence factor: 79.16%

As a sneak peak to the Sunday games, the MRI is predicting Connecticut and Florida to move on for now. Tune in tomorrow for the exact percentages.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 24, 2006

Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Friday

I am still trying to catch my breath. The highlights keep rolling on ESPN, repeatedly showing the last few seconds of the final two games from Thursday.

Kenton Paulino deftly catching the pass from AJ Abrams with his left hand and in one motion stopping his rush up the court and jumping from about three feet beyond the arc. Swish! Game over. Texas advances.

Jordan Farmar steals the ball from over JP Batista's head in the back court and tosses it to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for an easy two points. Derek Raivio rushes up the court with the ball, harassed by the UCLA defense. The ball is knocked from him and Mbah a Moute dives to the floor to cover it up forcing the tie-up. Arron Afflalo manages to hit one free throw after getting fouled on the inbounds pass, keeping hope for the Zags alive. Gonzaga has one last heave down court to Batista. Clunk! Game over. UCLA survives and Adam Morrison collapses to the floor in tears.

Within about the game space of about a minutes, two No. 2 seeds survive what were amazing games.

Not to take anything away from the earlier two contests, but the second two were games that rival the finishes of last season's Regional Finals. And there is no reason to suspect that they won't lead to great games on Saturday making us recall last year's games once again.

So, with Thursday's games done and Saturday's games set, the MRI takes a look at Friday's schedule and who should still be playing on Sunday afternoon.

Washington Region: George Mason (11) vs. Wichita State (7)
Unless you have been sleeping for the last week, you have heard all there is to know about both George Mason and Wichita State. You have watched how these two teams that many didn't give a chance have advanced to be on the verge of making history. Not that history hasn't already been made. The Colonial Athletic Association doesn't put teams into the Sweet 16. The Missouri Valley doesn't put two teams into the Sweet 16. But the basketball landscape is changing, and these are the pioneers of that change.

And the Pioneers of George Mason might have the best shot to make history of the two teams. Earlier this season, Tony Skinn nailed a three point shot to beat Wichita State. And now he has another chance. Skinn was suspended for the opening round game against Michigan State. His team fought to the win.

Skinn's game against North Carolina was forgettable, but not the result -- another win for the Patriots. And now, Skinn has the chance to relive the glory of the earlier game when he scored 23 points against the Shockers.

The battle inside between Jai Lewis of George Mason and Paul Miller and Kyle Wilson of Wichita State will be something to watch. Lewis may not have shot well against the athletic Tyler Hansbrough, but his 275 pounds sure disrupted the North Carolina big man. Miller and Wilson have dominated the inside in their games against Seton Hall and Tennessee. Last time around, they had trouble containing Lewis. They must be better prepared now.

And George Mason better be prepared for the shooting talent of Wichita State. Sean Ogirri took a while to get going against Tennessee, but he was key to the first victory over Seton Hall. PJ Couisnard took over in the Tennessee game with two late three point baskets to seal the win. Both will need to shoot better than last time around when they were 2-11 from three point range. Given the way things have gone so far in the tournament, that stat should definitely improve.

This one is almost too close to call, which should be obvious after the close result of the Bracket Buster game. Given the tougher road that George Mason has taken to this point and the game's location in D.C., I am going to lean towards the Patriots, but there is no reason that the game can't go the other way. Most of the country will dismiss this game because of the names in it, but it should provide some of the best action of the night.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence factor: 59.89%

Washington Region: Connecticut (1) vs. Washington (5)
Connecticut, against everyone's predictions, has stumbled into the Sweet Sixteen. Not that anyone thought that Connecticut would be home by now. It was more that they thought they would easily blow through the competition until this point. That wasn't the truth as they struggled against the #16 Albany and then against Kentucky. Now they have a rolling Washington team that wasn't expected at all to be in this game.

The Huskies were discounted by everyone, with some going so far to believe that Utah State would be playing against Illinois in the second round. Brandon Roy and Washington survived though, living through repeated comebacks by Illinois and now they have to take down the East coast Huskies.

Roy has now scored almost 50 points in the first two contests which is good for Washington and bad for them also. Good because it means their best player is rolling into the game with Connecticut on a hot streak. Bad because it means that Washington isn't getting a contribution from anyone else to help spread the Connecticut defense out.

Yes, Justin Dentmon and Jamaal Williams have been contributing, but just not in the surprising way that you look for in the tournament. They haven't led the team in scoring. They haven't come from nowhere to become the next great name. They are in the shadows of Roy and that means that Connecticut should have one singular focus -- stopping him.

Connecticut's defense is the best in the league when they are concentrating. Hilton Armstrong was the easy choice for the Defensive Player of the Year in the Big East. He swats away anything that comes even close to him. In the Kentucky game, the blocks weren't coming, but if a scare doesn't get the defense focused for Washington, I don't know what will. And even if Armstrong is out, Josh Boone, Rudy Gay, and Denham Brown will be patrolling around the basket with one of the deepest big lines in the country.

The key in this game will be focus. There is no doubt that Connecticut can stop the scoring of Washington if they are into the game. And if Marcus Williams is playing as well as he has been lately, and Rashad Anderson can add his very timely threes, Connecticut should be unstoppable with all their weapons.

I just don't see Washington pulling another upset to get past the Huskies. Connecticut should roll into Sunday.
MRI Predicts: Connecticut Confidence factor: 67.74%

Minneapolis Region: Villanova (1) vs. Boston College (4)
Craig Smith and Jared Dudley are going to have a field day inside against the Wildcats. Seems like an obvious statement. Too bad it won't be true. Arizona thought it was going to have that field day and look what happened to them. The four guard line-up that the Philadelphia Wildcats had been dragging out to the court all season suddenly wasn't the story. Instead it was Will Sheridan and Dante Cunningham. The two big men in the eternally small line-up were contributing more than they had ever been needed before. And it paid off for Villanova. They are still playing.

Sheridan and Cunningham will need to give little bit more if Villanova is to keep playing until Sunday. Their guards will score. Their guards will defend Louis Hinnant and Tyrese Rice. They just need the big men to do their job inside. It is that simple. Villanova is too strong around the perimeter for that to be a factor. Boston College is going to need to get the ball into the post. And the amount that they are able to do that will determine if the Eagles will be soaring Sunday, or if they will only be soaring back to Massachusetts.

Randy Foye and Allan Ray will most likely go for about 50 points combined in this one. Their mid-range shooting will be called into action here. They won't be able to drive to the basket in this game. If West Virginia can live by shooting from deep, then Villanova will have to live by shooting from 15 feet. If Boston College can keep the Wildcats under 70, they may have a chance in this one. Otherwise, they are going home.
MRI Predicts: Villanova Confidence factor: 72.77%

Minnesapolis Region: Georgetown (7) vs. Florida (3)
If you like to watch the big men battle it out inside the paint, this game is for you. And this one should be simple for the Gators in terms of strategy. Wear out Roy Hibbert. The Georgetown big man is carrying around almost 300 pounds. And no one runs like the Gators.

Billy Donovan has always had fast teams, but not many have been this fast and this big. His bench is deep with big men that he can trot out against Hibbert. It won't be two men and done like Ohio State. It won't be outmatched inside like Northern Iowa. This is team that has the size to compete with Georgetown's version of the Great Wall of China.

The Gators will also need to get the contribution from Taurean Green, something that has been lacking during the first two rounds. The announcers from CBS made it clear. Green had been walking through the first two games in a daze. Flashes of brilliance, yes, but a daze for the better part of the tournament so far. They haven't exactly needed him so far. The fast big men like Joakim Noah have made sure to cover for the back court leader. However, with their hands full in this one, they are going to need Green's contribution on the shooting front. Only 14 points in the first two games combined for a player that almost averages 14 a game for the Gators won't be enough for Florida.

Of course, if Hibbert is forced to foul and foul early against Noah et al, Green might not be needed. The Florida front line can easily take it inside against Georgetown's Jeff Green and Brandon Bowman. Not that these Hoyas aren't great defenders. It is that they improve when the offense of the other team has to worry about the seven footer in the middle in addition to them.

So there is the plan for Florida, a team running right now like a freight train with no conductor and no dead man's switch. Keep running. Wear out Hibbert. The rest should take care of itself.
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 79.14%

Posted by bmiraski at 1:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 23, 2006

Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Thursday

8 games, two days, getting us to what last year was the most exciting two days of the season.

Not to take anything away from the championship game last year, or the Final Four, but it was all downhill after the Regional Finals.

So who is going to make it to the Regional Finals this year and try to live up to last year's buzzer beaters, comebacks and shockers?

Let's see what the MRI has to say about Thursday's games.

Atlanta Regional: Duke(1) vs. LSU(4)
The further that Duke goes in the tournament, the more dangerous they normally get. This year, that is a little scary. The Blue Devils certainly seemed to have some weaknesses late in the season. JJ Redick's shooting was going downhill earlier that usual. Shelden Williams seemed to not have any help inside despite the improving play of DeMarcus Nelson and Josh McRoberts. And then the ACC tournament hit and all that trouble went out the window. Their play improved, Redick shooting came back, Williams was the landlord of the paint once again. This has carried over into the NCAA tournament and they are winning their games by the second largest margin in the field. And yet, it still scares me to see this team, this team with so many acknowledged flaws, ready to make another run to the Final Four.

Add to my fears that they are playing a dangerous young team in LSU. The Tigers are showing everyone why I think they are ready to make a Final Four run next season. Their margin of victory hasn't been that impressive. They aren't blowing people away in the tournament. They are winning with good shooting and a great inside game led by Glen Davis.

Despite all that, I think that the experience of the Blue Devils will win out out in this game. Williams has grown enough over his four years to learn how to be tough inside without being in foul trouble all the time. McRoberts is turning into the good inside player that Coach Krzyzewski recruited. He should provide enough help to Williams whether they are sharing the court or he is subbing for him. This should be enough to take away the advantage that Davis has provided LSU inside. The X-factor will be the shooting of Greg Paulus and Redick, who have both done much better over the two games of the tournament. It must be a relief for Redick that he no longer has to carry the shooting load outside of the paint by himself.

Duke is turning into an actual team as opposed to two players with a supporting cast as they were for most of the season.

Count this one for the Devils, though it will probably be a lot closer than Duke's other games so far and most people expect.
MRI Predicts: Duke Confidence factor: 72.82%

Atlanta Regional: West Virginia (6) vs. Texas (2)
They played earlier this year. Texas played terribly for most of the game, turning the ball over too much, missing open shots, but they were still in it. And when you are close with the game on the line, it should be up to your best player to do something to take it over the top and LaMarcus Aldridge did just that. Aldridge made a shot with 3.9 seconds remaining and then scored a big block to save the game for the Longhorns.

And that was early in the season. Texas didn't look like the team they are now. This team doesn't give the ball up 24 times. This is not the team that Duke sent to the showers with a 31-point defeat. This is a team that has come into its own.

I keep talking about the importance of Brad Buckman. Remember, it was he who was missing for most of the game against Duke. Before he left the floor, the game was close. After he was gone, Texas had nothing. He only scores nine a game. He only gets about seven rebounds. He isn't flashy, but he is a complement to Aldridge on the floor. Buckman helps to clear the other team's big men out of the inside to give more room to Aldridge to work. Unlike most teams that have only one larger man to set screens up high, or in the post, Texas has two. They don't lose the lane when Buckman moves up to the top of the key to give the guards a little room. They still have Aldridge in the paint to receive a pass for the easy lay-in.

That said, Buckman is not the only key to this game, but he is a big part especially against the undersized West Virginia. Kenton Paulino will need to make his passes, Aldridge will need to make his shots, Daniel Gibson will need to add his almost 14 points a game.

Texas is built to beat a team like West Virginia. They have the big presence inside. If the Mountaineers can only get one chance at a longer shot, Texas will control the ball for long periods of time. Their guards are pesky enough to force West Virginia into turnovers.

The line from last game had Mike Gansey scoring 28 points. The rest of the team had only one man over 10. I have to believe a focus of the defensive effort for Texas is going to be stopping Gansey from doing it again. PJ Tucker will most likely be outside to try and stop the smaller forward. If Buckman and Aldridge can stay home, Gansey won't be driving past Tucker to get to the rim.

Texas has to force West Virginia to shoot long shots and not allow the offensive rebounds. Yes, a good number of the shots will fall in, but the secret will be keeping West Virginia from the long boards.

If Texas can do that, as they did last time, and not allow Gibson to turn the ball over nine times, this game should go the Longhorns' way much easier than the previous match.
MRI Predicts: Texas Confidence factor: 92.45%

Oakland Regional: Memphis (1) vs. Bradley (13)
When I told you a few weeks ago that Marcellus Sommerville's college career story was yet to be written, you probably didn't believe me. When I recommended that you might want to take a shot on Bradley in the first round against Kansas, I am guessing many of you left it out of your brackets.

When Bradley won their first two games of the NCAA tournament, I am guessing many of you were still shocked.

The truth is that Bradley has a very good basketball team, underrated, and under-seeded by the committee. This team proved over the last third of the season that they were just as good if not better than the most of the Missouri Valley conference. And now they have a chance to shock the country again if they can beat the Memphis Tigers.

According to the MRI numbers, the chance of Bradley winning back to back games against Kansas and Pittsburgh when they did, on a neutral floor, was something close to 1 in 15. The chances of them beating Kansas, Pittsburgh, and Memphis, in a row is less than 1 in 100. And yet, you still can't count them out.

They are bringing in Sommerville, who has averaged 19 points in the last two games. They have Patrick O'Bryant, who sure made a name for himself against Pittsburgh, averaging 18 points and 9 rebounds. It is not as if they were doing this against poor competition either. It is probably a given that these two can do well for the Braves. The real question will be what other member of the team steps up to shoot along with them.

In the game against Kansas, it was Daniel Ruffin and Will Franklin. Against Pittsburgh, it was Lawrence Wright. This team has the talent to compete. But can they stop the Tigers?

Memphis won't allow them to get away with turnovers. They will run over them too quickly if that happens. Memphis is too fast in the transition game for Bradley to keep up with them long in a running match.

While the Tigers may not be as tall inside as Bradley, Rodney Carney is also no slouch when it comes to scoring inside or out. There is a good chance Sommerville will get the task of guarding Carney and that could signal a quick foul problem for Bradley. Carney has too much speed for Sommerville to match up consistently with him and it could be that we see him driving past Sommerville every chance he gets. This means that O'Bryant will either have to come off his man to help, leaving open the easy pass and basket, or Sommerville is going to get caught trying to keep up and be forced to foul Carney or give the easy hoop.

While I can't totally discount the Braves, they are overwhelmed by the talent on Memphis and that should be enough to give the Tigers the edge. The speed of Memphis combined with the chance for Bradley to make too many mistakes now that the eyes of the nation are on them should be too much. There is no counting on foul trouble from all the Memphis big men as there was in the game against Pittsburgh. There won't be the turnovers to give the ball back to Bradley consistently as there was against Kansas. John Calipari won't let that happen.

Still, something in the back of my head still tells me that a story is coming here, despite what the numbers say. Don't be surprised if Memphis is the first No.1 seed to go down, and Bradley is the first No. 13 seed to play for a chance to go to the Final Four.
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence factor: 85.85%

Oakland Regional: Gonzaga (3) vs. UCLA (2)
If you aren't already exhausted from watching the Duke and LSU game, this one should be a treat, if only to see which way UCLA is able to shut down Gonzaga.

The Zags have been lucky so far. They survived Xavier, though I think it shocked them that they were pushed to the limit by that team. They survived Indiana, despite Morrison's dreadful shooting night and Vaden's 20 points. They won't be so lucky with UCLA.

I should apologize for telling people to overlook Indiana in the first round. I was unaware that Vaden would be playing. And wouldn't you know that it would be his three point shot with about three seconds to go that would do in the Aztecs for good. And I really thought that San Diego State would have what it took to take out Gonzaga in the second round for another season. Well, so much for that pick.

So, we will be putting our faith in the Bruins to do the task and it shouldn't be a surprise when they do.

I have consistently railed on the need to not stop Adam Morrison, because only he can stop himself, as he has a few times this year. His shooting wasn't on against Indiana and it may have something to do with a flu bug that he has caught and may not have shaken by the time the game begins tonight. The real secret to stopping the Zags is in making sure they have no second option.

There is no doubt in my mind that Jordan Farmar can stop Derek Raivio. That means that this battle, like most in the tournament will be won with the inside game. Can Luc Mbah a Moute, Ryan Hollins, and Alfred Aboya, stop JP Batista? The answer here is a resounding yes.

Xavier's bigger team held him to 18 points, and only eight rebounds. UCLA's big men are better.

Indiana let Batista get 20, and let Sean Mallon total 15 on them. They didn't have the help for Marco Killingsworth that UCLA does.

And yet despite their deficiencies, both Xavier and Indiana both just missed beating the Zags. UCLA, on paper, should have better luck against Batista, and given Morrison's health, potentially both of them.

Arron Afflalo has been semi-silent through the tournament so far. I would look for him to take advantage of Adam Morrison's less that spectacular defense in this game and start to come alive for the Bruins. He better do it now, as they will need him against Memphis in the Regional Finals.
MRI Predicts: UCLA Confidence factor: 72.82%

Posted by bmiraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

Will He? Won't He?

There are conflicting reports this morning around the Kansas State job. According to some sources, Bob Huggins, the embattled ex-Cincinnati head coach will be heading to Manhattan to take the Wildcats job. According to his agent, Huggins hasn't signed a contract. According to the school, no press conference has been scheduled even though the Kansas City Star thinks there is one this afternoon.

So much for taking their time and going through an exhaustive search if this is true.

I guess this also means that Mark Turgeon is out of the picture.

Don't get me wrong. I like Bob Huggins as a coach. I think he did phenomenal things at Cincinnati and he grabs talent from all over the country, from the unlikeliest of places. He would do the same thing at Kansas State and the Big XII will be a different place with him. Of course, we said the same thing about Bob Knight when he went to Texas Tech, but don't let anyone tell you that going to Lubbock is different than it used to be before he got there.

Still, a part of me is hoping that Howard Richman shows up for the news conference in Manhattan and is the only guy in the room.

Posted by bmiraski at 7:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 22, 2006

Raiding the Missouri Valley

In case you missed it, Iowa State hired Northern Iowa coach Greg McDermott to lead the Cyclones next season. McDermott has led the Northern Iowa Panthers to three straight appearance in the NCAA tournament.

Iowa State is plucking their coach from an in-state school in an up and coming conference, one that I feel might over the next few years, shed the label of mid-major. This despite living under the footprint of two well established major conferences in the Big Ten and Big XII.

This begs the question, where might the coaches of other successful Missouri Valley teams end up, given the coaching vacancies that have been arising.

It has been rumored that Dana Altman, the head coach at Creighton might be headed to Missouri, or at least part of the search. His ties with Norm Stewart, the coach before Quin Synder, make him a likely candidate for the position - that and his record over the past 12 years at Creighton.

Here is a thought for you. Think back to the mid-major schools you heard a lot about five years ago and still hear about today. There should be about two names on that list: Gonzaga and Creighton. Altman had Creighton in the running for an NCAA bid until a first round loss to Bradley in the Missouri Valley Tournament did them in. Still, the Bluejays were off to the NIT, marking the ninth year in a row that they have gone to a post-season tournament, including six times in the big dance. If that isn't success at the Division I level, I don't know what is, especially when you presume that he is doing it with less that the best of talent.

The only piece missing on Altman's resume might be more post-season wins. There is no doubt that he can win the Missouri Valley tournament, capturing five titles in 12 years, not all from the top position in the league. But on the big stage, or the second biggest stage, the Jays have only won three times, with one of the losses coming as a No. 6 seed in 2003. Overall, that makes his Creighton tournament record 3-9 with no appearances past the second round in either the NIT or NCAA tournament.

The other snag in the "Altman to Missouri" campaign has been the emergence of a man who was believed to be headed elsewhere. Steve Alford is apparently not going to be interviewed by Indiana. This is not surprising since my belief is that Indiana should want someone who can win in the tournament, not just during the regular season. Sources claim that Indiana is only interviewing two candidates and with a list that short, and the belief that Indiana will hire someone close to the school, there are few names that can fit in both circles.

With Alford off the list at Indiana, that leaves him open to pursue the job at Missouri. This would be a curious fit for Alford although he did coach at Missouri State before going to Iowa. The one thing it does do that Indiana could not is relieve him of the pressure of having to go against Iowa every year during the regular season, as he would if he took the Indiana job.

So that leaves Altman free to pursue other venues if he desires. And what better place than Iowa if he was looking to remain in the Midwest.

So, with McDermott gone and Altman appearing to be destined for another level, does that mean that the Missouri Valley is tapped out?

In some ways, yes. Some of the coaches with great years in the Valley are probably at their schools to stay, at least for the time being. We won't see Jim Les leaving the Bradley Braves where he was both a player and now the coach. Southern Illinois' Chris Lowery is most likely staying for at least another season where he was a player and now the head coach.

And there is probably a second caveat to one of the coaches leaving. It is likely that the coaches from the Missouri Valley would end up coaching somewhere close to where they are now. Other than rare cases where a coach has ties to another program, it is doubtful that they will leave their base recruiting area of the Midwest.

Looking at the list of openings right now, that narrows our list down to one program outside of the Missouri or potentially, Iowa jobs - Kansas State.

As if it wasn't an obvious choice, there might be no one better qualified that Mark Turgeon, current head coach of the Wichita State Shockers. Turgeon played basketball for the University of Kansas during the mid-80s and also served as an assistant under Roy Williams. Now, in six years at Wichita State, Turgeon has led the Shockers to four straight post-season appearances, including three NITs in a row and now a Sweet Sixteen appearance in the NCAA tournament with still a chance for the Elite Eight.

The Kansas State administration fired Jim Wooldridge because they believed that their team was good enough to make a post-season tournament. It was put to Wooldridge during the season that if the team didn't get a berth anywhere, he was gone. When the team didn't get selected to the NIT after falling in the first round of the Big XII tournament, Wooldridge was shown the door.

With his recent tournament experience, Turgeon would seem then to fit the mold perfectly for the case put forth by the administration.

He has shown that he can take a team, rebuild it, and then make it better every season. His success in the Missouri Valley over the past few years shows that. And now, he has both the NIT success and NCAA success to back up a job at a higher level.

With the Kansas ties, Turgeon is familiar with the Big XII conference and also with the state, having grown up there, played there, and now coached there. He has recruiting success not only at Wichita State, but also at Oregon where he served as an assistant.

The Kansas State administration is said to be taking its time in making the decision, but that might be only a formality until Turgeon and the Shockers end their NCAA run.

Posted by bmiraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 21, 2006

What? No Coverage?

I am sure the number of hits on my site has been down over the last week. No one is looking for tournament projections. No one is looking for how to fill out their brackets. No one is trying to figure out how I can have omitted Marquette and West Virginia from my field. I can't tell for certain though because the stats program that is supposed to run on the site hasn't worked since February 11th, and I was a little preoccupied to get a ticket in to get it fixed. Needless to say, I am probably well shy of the 1,000,000 unique hits that are necessary to qualify for an internet media pass to the Final Four, but that doesn't mean I don't like to try.

For those looking for coverage of the first two rounds, sorry, it's not here. But that doesn't mean that I don't have something planned about the tournament. I spent four straight days watching basketball. Other than running, sleeping, and eating (and even sometimes while doing that), I was watching the tournament from various locations from Thursday at tip-off until Sunday Night when the final points were scored in the Arizona-Villanova game.

My hand was cramped from note taking. My eyes were bloodshot. My legs felt like they had atrophied to nothing. Writing was the last thing on my mind.

Somewhere, I got it into my head to take as many notes as possible on the first 48 games and I did. And something will be coming from them. More research needs to be done, but they will see the light of day on these pages.

A couple of things to hold you over until the Sweet Sixteen preview:

• Here is Scoop Jackson's article after he did the same thing I tried to do. His experience sounds much different from mine.
• The MRI got 24 of the 32 first round games correct. Teams not making the MRI field were 3-5 in the first round with one of those wins being guaranteed (Alabama vs. Marquette), and the other thanks to San Diego State forgetting how to play over the final three minutes. The second round saw Indiana and Alabama bow out which took away two more of the MRI-hated. That leaves, for the second year in a row, West Virginia, thanks to Iowa totally blowing a game against Northwestern State that they had in hand with silly defense, turnovers, and missed free throws. With ten minutes left in that game, I made the comment in my notebook that Iowa was letting Northwestern State take as many three point shots as they liked. At the time, the Demons weren't hitting them. And when the shots started to fall, Iowa continued to stay with the big line-up and let the threes rain on them. I even wrote as the 17-point lead was cut to five: "Is Alford going to blow it?" And he did. So Northwestern State provided an easy opponent for the Mountaineers, instead of the giants that Iowa would have thrown at them. Now West Virginia gets Texas, who barely woke up in time to beat West Virginia earlier in the season. Let's hope they are more focused this time around. So final results over four days for the MRI-hated: 4-7. Not terrible and better than I expected, but still nothing to make me think that any of the teams, potentially outside of West Virginia, deserved a bid.
• Notable upsets the computer picked: Bucknell over Arkansas (Arkansas was Ken Pomeroy's sleeper pick), George Mason over Michigan State, Texas A&M over Syracuse
• Notable upsets that came out of nowhere: Northwestern State over Iowa, Montana over Nevada
• Biggest upset of the first two rounds, by the numbers: Bradley over Kansas by a small margin over the Demons' upset. That doesn't mean I didn't tell you to pick it though. And the Braves' win over Pittsburgh in the second round was the biggest upset for that slate of games too.
• Picked before the tournament, the MRI still has nine teams in the Sweet Sixteen and can win all but the Wichita State vs. George Mason contest. Every Final Four team for the computer is also intact.
• If the MRI was allowed to pick over starting at the second round, and including the results from the first round and the NIT in the formula, the MRI would have selected 11 of the Sweet Sixteen.
• Missouri State is showing that they got hosed by the Selection Committee with their performance in the NIT. Oh, and don't forget about the two Colonial teams that are still going strong, Old Dominion and Hofstra. This might be the mid-majors' year to get a final four team in the NIT and potentially a champion. For more information on the Hofstra run towards New York City, check out Josh Stewart in the Long Island Press. He even uses the F-word!

More to come folks, stay tuned.

Posted by bmiraski at 6:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 15, 2006

Tournament Musings: Lines 5 through 8

Now that you have the inside track on the top lines in the bracket, what are you going to do on the tough match-ups, the games anywhere from the 5-12 to the 8-9. We all know there are some trends but what do the rules from the first part tell us about the other games?

Let's keep looking at that first round.

The five seeds are what we all know as legend. They always go down to the No. 12, usually once or more per tournament. So which No. 5 is in trouble this year? Well, it is not Pittsburgh, despite how down I was on the Panthers going into the Big East tournament. Their performance through the gauntlet in that mini-NCAA type tournament was definitely enough to let me know that they are ready. And not only ready, possibly poised for a long run into the tournament. I would imagine that Pittsburgh has what it takes to beat not only Kansas, thanks to the Jayhawks youth, but also the Memphis Tigers. All seven feet and 270 pounds of Aaron Gray are going to give teams coming into the middle plenty of trouble. Plus, between Gray and Carl Krauser, Pitt has the scoring ability to hang with anyone. The only issue for the Panthers is depth and while it won't kill them in the first round, later rounds are going to be an issue. Kansas could go down to Pitt and so might Pittsburgh, but UCLA will be much tougher.

While you are at it, you can move Washington through. Utah State was one of the MRI misses, and thanks to the rules, MRI misses are more than likely to lose in the first round. Very few get past that point at all, and even fewer are going to make any run to the Sweet 16. The only two teams to embarrass the MRI completely were Missouri a few years back and West Virginia last season. That pretty much guarantees that Utah State is a first round loss.

Nevada doesn't play an MRI miss - the MRI actually had Montana over Northern Arizona for the Big Sky title - but it does have Nick Fazekas and Montana doesn't. The big man in the middle for the Wolf Pack has great help along the perimeter and inside. Nevada is also a sleeper pick for the Sweet 16. Look for them to challenge Boston College with the same make-up as the Eagles. Don't be surprised if Nevada can duplicate the run it had under Trent Johnson.

So, that leaves everyone's Big East tournament Cinderella, Syracuse. Can I be serious? The Orange going down to one of the last teams in, Texas A&M? Yes. Syracuse's run in the tournament came with a lot of luck. They needed a few saves from Gerry McNamara and it could be that they have used up all of their magic to get to this point. Don't forget that they also played 4 games last week against very good competition. It is not like they are rested for the start of the tournament and the tiredness did show a bit at the end of their Big East run. So can Texas A&M end it all for the Orange? Yes. A&M had been playing better than most teams headed into their Big XII tournament. They humiliated Colorado and they gave Texas everything they had for the second time in two weeks to continue their life in tournament. There is no doubt that the Aggies can play with anyone. The real question will be if it carries over into the NCAA tournament and I think the answer is yes. I don't think the Orange are going to have what it takes to slow down Acie Law and the defense of the Aggies has been very good over the past few weeks. And all that will lead them to the first round upset.

At the 6-seed, we have two more automatic exits thanks to MRI misses. Indiana is going to try and send Mike Davis out a winner, much to the chagrin of the administration, but I don't think it will happen. Possibly without Robert Vaden, they are going to be without one of their top scoring threats and that is not something you want in the tournament. San Diego State has Marcus Slaughter inside to help shut down Marco Killingsworth and that should give the Aztecs enough of an edge on the defensive side of the ball to score with the Hoosiers. As long as nothing happens to Slaughter to cause him to miss too much of the game, they should pull the win. And don't think that San Diego State will stop there. Given their roster, they should prove a tough test for Gonzaga should the Zags get past the larger Xavier team.

The other 6-seed without hope is West Virginia. Yes, I would have said that last season also, but this year I mean it. I have said before that any team with a decent inside presence and some great guard defense has a great chance of stopping the Mountaineers. I think Southern Illinois has enough of that to stop the 3-point shots from raining down on them. Everyone loved Pittsnogle last season. This year, they will lament selecting him deep into the tournament bracket.

Michigan State should move through a little easier. While George Mason got a lot of love in the MRI this season, they will be without their second leading scorer who is suspended for the game.

And that leaves Oklahoma. The Sooners haven't been playing well lately, but Wisconsin-Milwaukee won't be making the run that they did either. Taj Gray and Kevin Bookout should be too much for the Panthers to deal with inside and that should keep Wisconsin-Milwaukee only playing one game this year.

So, if the six line was so easy, is the seven line the same way? Well part of it is. Both Cal and Marquette were teams that the MRI didn't pick. I think that Cal is definitely out in the first round. They have only one weapon and watching how easily UCLA took care of them, I can't be convinced that they will be going on to the weekend. Meanwhile, Marquette is a different story.

The Golden Eagles will be playing Alabama, another of the MRI's misses, much as the committee plans it each season. So, despite all of the critics I have faced, take Marquette. Steve Novak should be too much for Alabama, and considering that 'Bama has been playing even worse than Oklahoma over the last few weeks, it should be an easy win. They meet UCLA most likely in round two, so they better enjoy the 40 minutes they have against the Tide. They won't be getting past the Bruins.

The other two games should be of great interest as we will find out a lot about the top teams in the Missouri Valley. Wichita State is the only team from the Valley to get a high seed in the tournament and that has often been good news for that conference. And they are playing an MRI miss. What more could you want? The Shockers have a balanced scoring attack and don't need to rely on only a few players to get the production they need. I have Wichita State moving past Seton Hall, and then, no matter if Winthrop pulls the upset or not, the Shockers will keep playing all the way to the second weekend. Sweet sixteen has never been so good as when it comes to rub it into the face of all the naysayers of the Valley out there.

Northern Iowa did not get as lucky with its draw. Ben Jacobson and Grant Stout will have their hands full with the Georgetown Hoyas. Roy Hibbert is a monster inside for the Hoyas. He is listed at 7'2" and 283 pounds. That is a lot for a team that doesn't have a player over 6'10" to move around. And that player doesn't even start. Plus, the newest version of the Princeton offense with a little more style is not like anything in the Missouri Valley. The Hoyas should take this, but I would expect this game to be tightly contested. Either way, this winner is not getting past the Buckeyes in the second round, no matter how big they are.

And now for the fun lines, the 8-9 game. This is more often won by the No. 9 team and this year should be no different. The only No. 8 team I would count on is George Washington. It looks like Pops Mensah-Bonsu will be playing and that is not good for the Colonial conference champs, UNC-Wilmington. The Colonial Athletic Association was hoping to make a statement in the tournament this year. They were hoping to show that they had what it takes to warrant two bids each season. They certainly had the numbers during the regular season. But they don't have a Pops and that will keep their tournament to only 40 minutes.

Now the No. 9 seeds. I don't know about you, but Bucknell is too good to pass up. They won last year against a much better Kansas squad and no matter how good Arkansas had been playing of late to show the committee what I had been saying for two months, you have to go with the Bison. Bucknell earned a spot in the MRI top 25 before the season was done and that should be enough for me to pick them in this game. But also to remember is that this team took down Syracuse this season. They have their veteran line-up returning and they have the experience of winning the game. Arkansas... not so much.

If you want to talk about experience, there are no two better teams to talk about than Wisconsin and Arizona. Ever since the revival at Wisconsin about 10 years ago, the Badgers have been a staple of the tournament. And Arizona, they have been there for almost as long as Lute Olson has been coaching. The Wildcats had some trouble this year. Having one of the toughest schedules in the league, they definitely had their share of struggles. And off the court, they had plenty of distractions to keep them occupied also. I don't think this team has the focus this year for a deep run. Too much has happened to them this year.

Wisconsin may not be playing their best basketball either, but they always seem to find a way to turn it on in the tournament. The Badgers have the one of the best inside games and they should not have a problem out rebounding Arizona. They will need to control the tempo and keep it very slow. If the Wildcats run out on them, they will need one of the Illinois style comebacks from last year's tournament to get to the second round. I think they have the shooters to do it, but that is not how they like to play. I have the Badgers surprising a lot of people thanks to their superior match-up against not only Arizona, but Villanova (lack of big men), and Nevada (too much size over the Wolf Pack). Will Wisconsin make the great run? I think so, and it will be another banner year for the Big Ten if they do, facing Ohio State in the Regional Finals.

One last first round game: UAB against Kentucky. UAB knows how to play defense and that should be enough in this game to take out the Wildcats. Why? Because Kentucky can not hang onto the ball. No matter what line-up that Tubby Smith will put into the game, they just have trouble with keeping the ball with the shirts in blue. By now we all know Squeaky Johnson's name. He averages almost 3 steals a game. There isn't much more you can say about that. The Blazers need to concentrate on not only forcing the turnovers but keeping the ball away from the Randolph Morris. If UAB can accomplish that, much as they have all season, they will take out the inconsistent Kentucky team.

There is your first round with a little glimpse into what I did later in the brackets. If all holds true, the winner of the tournament will most likely come from the top 10 teams in the MRI. That means no Iowa, no UCLA (though I like them as a sleeper), no Ohio State, and most definitely no Gonzaga.

This is a very interesting tournament and one of the hardest ones that I have yet tried to pick my way through. Once the tournament begins, I will post a link to my brackets somewhere on a website so you can follow my progress and that of the MRI through the rounds. Enjoy the games and enjoy the dance.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 14, 2006

Tournament Musings: The Rules and the Top 4 lines

People think that just because I have a rating system, I always pick the games strictly according to the numbers.

Some of that is true, but a lot of that is not. The best brackets I have always have a bit of knowledge soaked into them to complement the numbers.

So what is that knowledge? I'll tell you. Let's look at the 2006 bracket and make some picks.

First things first. Place the No. 1 seed in every region into the second round. This isn't the year things are going to change, not with the 1-seeds that we have and the lack of strength in the 16-seeds. If this one fails you, you are free to send me your requests for your entry fee back in whatever pool you are in.

Now, we are getting to the first bit of knowledge. Each year, no matter what, there is always one region that goes crazy. Every rule you have ever heard for filling out your bracket fails in that region. It is as if the laws of physics don't apply anymore just for teams in that regional. Now that the "pod system" is in place, you could even have one set of teams at a first round location follow all the rules, while the other set just seems to be playing under a cloud. This year, I think this will be in the Minneapolis region. There are too many really good teams there for the region to hold true to form.

The next bit of knowledge is that you must have a strong big man to help carry your team through the games. The tournament is about stamina, and a team that is busy trying to travel and shoot and live up to media expectations is not going to survive long. That is why last year's West Virginia team is still such a shocker. They did most of their damage from behind the three point arc. Does that mean that a shooting team can't win a game or two? No, of course not. In fact, that is the other piece of the game that you have to have in place.

You can't just throw the ball inside to the big guy and hope that he will win you the ball game. You have to have the shooters who can get you the big three, or have the ability to receive the kick back from the centers and forwards and knock down the open jumper. Syracuse had Carmelo Anthony, and even more now, Gerry McNamara, UConn had Ben Gordon, and North Carolina had just about everyone else on their team other than Sean May.

Right now, you are probably thinking, "Great. Tell me something I didn't know." Well, if you knew it then why are you picking Boston College to go far? How about the same West Virginia team from last year, again in this year's tournament? The fact is, you have to look for balanced teams to fill the deep lines on your brackets. That is where the money is, not that we advocate gambling at all.

So, these are the criteria we are going to look at in the tournament games.

Got your pencils ready? Good.

We already talked about the No. 1 seeds. They aren't going to lose.

The No. 2 seeds need a little bit of analysis though. Not all of them. Just one. Tennessee.

Yes, I know ESPN is hyping up Bruce Pearl's team because Pearl is using the backlash over his team's placement as blackboard material. Uh, Bruce, last time I checked, the No. 2 seed didn't need blackboard material, at least to get out of the first round. Maybe later in the tournament, but not right away. Are you telling us you are scared? Well he should be, because he is facing Winthrop.

Here come the screams. "Winthrop? The 15-seed? We should be scared?" I know. They barely survived the conference tournament final against Coastal Carolina, a team they lost to twice this season. And they lost to Liberty during the regular season, a loss that they avenged by beating the Flames by 41 in the Big South Tournament. But against tournament teams, they performed a lot better. They beat Marquette on the road early in the season in a shocker. They barely lost to Alabama, the team that Marquette will be playing the first round. They were only 10 points away from the #1 seeded Memphis Tigers, and while I hate to bring up past tournament performance (Nantz and Packer, pay attention), Winthrop gave Gonzaga every thing they had last season in the first round before falling by 10.

The Eagles have the right amount of size inside, including 6'10" Craig Bradshaw to go up against Tennessee. The only question will be around speed. If the Vols can run the ball like they have in their meetings with Florida, the Eagles will tire quickly and be done. However, I still think that Winthrop has the right combination to pull off the upset in this one, especially since the Eagles may be seeded too low and the Vols too high. If this were a 4-13 game, I would say to pencil in the Eagles. The 2-15 match-up scares me, if only for the numbers next to the names. I don't think that the Vols have enough depth on the inside to go far in the tournament. They are going to have to rely on running and shooting and keeping Major Wingate and Andre Patterson out of foul trouble. One game could be easy to pull over on them. If you want to take the chance and your pool has any points based on seed of the winner, pick the upset. You won't be hurting for long if you are wrong.

Moving to the 3-14 match-ups, I am pretty confident that these will hold form also. In fact, three of these names will be coming up a lot as we move forward through the bracket -- Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida.

Yes, I know that Steve Alford hasn't exactly had Iowa ready to shock anyone in the tournament in the past, but then again, they have never been the three seed under him either. The Hawkeyes have the recipe for a big tournament run, just like most Big Ten teams and this year, and they have the depth to finally pull it off. They will not be the underdog after the first game either like their were the last time they won a game in the tournament. I would venture that of all the teams on the three line, Iowa matches up the best with both teams seeded above them, Texas and Duke.

North Carolina is young, but there are still players on that team that experienced the Championship season last year. Every team is going to have its bobble game in the tournament. This is the game that is way too close and scares every amateur bracket maker until the final buzzer. North Carolina will have theirs early and after that, they should be a scary team. Once they learned how to win at the beginning of the season, considering many of them didn't have many minutes or points at the college level, there was very little that stood in their way, including Duke.

We will get to Florida later, but South Alabama should not pull the shocker. That much I can be sure of.

The only question mark is Gonzaga. The Zags have enough questions around them to fill an entire article. The most interesting part about Gonzaga is that ever since they have become a favorite, they haven't made the Sweet Sixteen. The first two years of their current run in the tournament were all made from the bottom part of the bracket. As soon as the number were next to their name during the season, at some points putting them as high as #4 or 5 in the nation this season, expectations seemed to take away their chances. And this is probably their most dicey year yet with the high seed.

If you look at the previous years for Gonzaga, you can see the pattern even more.

1998-9 Pre-MRI, Get #10 seed, Make Elite 8 before losing to Connecticut

1999-2000 Pre-MRI, Get #10 seed, Make Sweet 16 before losing to Purdue

2000-1 #41 MRI pre-tournament, Get #12 seed, Make Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan State

2001-2 #11 MRI pre-tournament, Get #6 seed, Lose first round to Wyoming (They did get hosed on seeding this year)

2002-3 #23 MRI pre-tournament, Get #9 seed, Lose second round to Arizona

2003-4 #3 MRI pre-tournament, Get #2 seed, Lose second round to Nevada

2004-5 #20 MRI pre-tournament, Get #3 seed, Lose second round to Texas Tech

2005-6 #31 MRI pre-tournament, Get #3 seed.

The only benefit they have is that they have actually fallen in the MRI over the last three seasons, which if you look at the only good season they had since the MRI, they might make the Sweet Sixteen. But more than the numbers, the scary thing is their performance of late.

Anyone who watched any of the games in the West Coast Conference tournament saw Gonzaga consistently play down to the level of their opponents. It didn't matter how many points Adam Morrison scored. It didn't matter how big JP Batista and Derek Raivio came through. The fact was that the mighty Gonzaga was challenged every night. So what makes me so sure that Xavier won't challenge them, especially considering the run by the Musketeers in the Atlantic 10 tournament? The truth is I am not sure.

Sure, Xavier took a big drop over the last month of the season. They lost their leading scorer, Brian Thornton. They had their point guard and senior leader, Dedrick Finn, dismissed from the team for a violation of team rules. They were in disarray. Still, they managed to get it together for the Atlantic 10 tournament and win four games straight. This game is not going to be about stopping Adam Morrison. This game is going to be about stopping JP Batista. If Justin Doellman and the other big men for the Musketeers can do that, Morrison will be all alone on the floor and will be much easier to take care of.

So who am I picking? Despite all that, I have Gonzaga penciled in all the way to the Sweet Sixteen to meet UCLA. If they go out in the second round again this year, it wouldn't surprise me. If they lose in the first round to Xavier, it would surprise me a little, but not as much as it will everyone else.

Last for now will be the No. 4 seeds. These are usually the teams that can cause the most damage to a bracket, being the most likely to knock out the No. 1 seeds later on in the Sweet Sixteen. This year, LSU, Illinois, Boston College, and Kansas, and taking that yoke on their backs. If you look at the teams, you have the makings of what could be next year's Final Four participants in two squads, Kansas and LSU. Both are young, both have inside strength, and both are getting the experience they need this year to make the run next year. That doesn't mean that neither has a shot to get their this season, it just more likely to come with another year of playing under their belts. That said, LSU should get by Iona with no problem and Kansas should survive Bradley.

If there is any team that is more of an enigma, it could be the Braves, who can keep their nickname with an outstanding appeal to the NCAA. Bradley came from nowhere in the conference to put on a brilliant late season run and make it all the way to Conference Tournament finals. A month before the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, Bradley was an afterthought. Now, they are one of the final teams in and got what could be a favorable match-up. Remember that Bradley is a team with a lot of upperclassmen. They are big in the middle with Patrick O'Bryant and Marcellus Sommerville (see, I told you his story was yet to be told...). They have some shooters and an experienced guard who can distribute the ball in Daniel Ruffin.

The experience of the Braves is countered by the youth, but dangerous youth, of the Jayhawks. Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Julian Wright, these are the names that we should be paying attention to next year (as for a couple, it may be their last in college). I think this game will come down to how well Chalmers has really matured as the leader on the offensive side of the ball. He will be controlling the action for Kansas. They made it through to capture the Big XII title and that was a great boost to their confidence. They have experience against a bigger inside team because of their play against Texas and Oklahoma. They should be ready for this game.

But again, they are young, and Bradley is hungry to show to that they were not incorrectly placed into the field. This may be yet another of those games, where if you get points for the seed that wins in an upset, you might want to take Bradley. They have what it takes to win in the tournament and Kansas or Bradley will have its hands full with Pittsburgh in the second round.

As for Illinois and Boston College, you can move them both through with no problem. Illinois should take care of an Air Force squad which received what I think was a gift from the committee. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Boston College is facing a Pacific team that knows how to win in the tournament and that could be trouble, but I think the Eagles learned a lot about themselves playing in the ACC tournament. After the terrible start to their first season in conference there, they righted the ship and almost took their inaugural season championship in the tournament. Don't fret on the size of Christian Maraker. Boston College should contain him well with Craig Smith and Jared Dudley helping John Oates down low.

Did you get all that? A few potential upsets in the top four lines and some sleeper picks for you if you get bonus points. Stay tuned for lines five through eight where anything can and will happen.

Posted by bmiraski at 8:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Tournament Backlash

I wasn't particularly pleased seeing Air Force and Utah State pop up on Selection Sunday. Don't get me wrong, they were teams that were definitely worthy of playing in the post-season, just not in the NCAA tournament. And while my numbers didn't exactly have Marquette, West Virginia, Seton Hall or Indiana in the field, I can understand their selection to the dance.

What I can't understand for the life of me is the reaction by Billy Packer and Jim Nantz on Sunday night during their interview with Tournament Selection Committee chair, Craig Littlepage. Even after brow-beating the man for 10 minutes, they wouldn't let him congratulate the field. It was as if they thought the field was wrong, so none of the teams deserved any praise from the man who chose them.

If you think that Littlepage walked away without saying anything, you would be wrong. He spoke out on Monday, coming back at CBS, and saying that the network owed the Tournament Committee more respect and that the two partners in presenting what may be the second greatest show in sports should work together better in the future.

He also criticized Packer for his insane comments that the tournament selection should partially be based on the past performance of the teams and conferences in the tournament. Someone should remind Packer that this would mean leagues like the Pac-10, which often scores numerous bids and don't fair well, would be on the same side of the page as the little leagues like the Missouri Valley who are lucky to get their extra bids and fight tooth and nail to possibly win a game.

Pat Forde's column on the matter highlights what may be the main flaw in Packer's argument:

It's abundantly clear that teams from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC have done better than teams from the Valley, Colonial and other allegedly lesser leagues. But what Nantz and Packer left out was the fact that the best teams from those leagues always start out with higher seeds and weaker opponents.

Sure, the last six Valley entrants in the NCAAs have only won one game. They've also been seeded seventh, 10th, 14th, ninth, 11th and sixth in that time. Valley teams went 1-1 in games where it had the higher seed during that three-year span, and every loss was by single digits. If Southern Illinois losing by a point in 2003 as a No. 11 seed and by a point in '04 as a 9-seed reflects poorly on the Missouri Valley, that's a fairly merciless standard to apply.

And if Nantz-Packer had gone back to 2002, they'd see that the Valley went a combined 3-2 in the dance with teams coming from No. 11 and No. 12 seedings. (All three victories came against higher-seeded teams from power conferences, by the way.)

I would challenge Nantz and Packer to assemble the list of teams that have made deep runs from the lower half of the bracket. They will likely see that the teams come from all sorts of conferences. Think about why we first got to know Gonzaga (10-seed). Or how about Kent State (10-seed) in 2002? You can even count Temple (11-seed in 2001) in this list. Sure, Missouri as a No. 12 or LSU as the magical No.11 in 1986, show up, but the list is pretty balanced.

As I listened to Colin Cowherd's radio show on ESPNRadio during my drive into work on Monday morning, I was reminded of one fact. You aren't going to get a team from the bottom half of the bracket that wins the whole thing. The only team lower than a 6-seed to win the title was Villanova with an 8-seed. Only once has a team with lower than a 8-seed made the Final Four. So, when we complain about the last four or five teams into the tournament, are we really thinking that just getting them in would get them a tournament title. Why not give the last four slots to teams like a Bradley, or a George Mason?

Let the little guy have his shot of breaking history. The first weekend, as Cowherd also pointed out on his show, is about the little guy. No one would care if Michigan had gotten Bradley's spot and beat Kansas. However, when Bucknell beat Kansas last year, what was everyone talking about? I guarantee there is a good portion of America putting Bucknell into the second round match against Memphis solely on that game from last year. And why shouldn't they? Everyone loves to root for the underdog.

So when I look at the teams I got wrong this year, should I be upset? No. The teams I didn't have in the tournament are seeded on lines that have won exactly one tournament final and that was way back in 1988 (Kansas). So, should I care that Utah State and Air Force are in? Nope. History tells me that they will lose in the first round, much like most MRI misses.

What about Marquette or Seton Hall? Seton Hall at the 10 is finally getting a taste of what Wichita State would normally need to go through -- being the underdog. Wichita State has a good chance to make the Sweet Sixteen should take out the Pirates. And my good friends at Marquette? You get the distinct honor of playing another the MRI's misses, Alabama, in what I have determined is a secret plot by the committee to make one of the non-MRI predicted teams win a game each year. Yes, I am picking Marquette to win its first round game. However, you will be saying goodbye in round two.

The only two misses that have a chance historically then are Indiana and West Virginia. Given last year's run by the Mountaineers, I am convinced that there is some mountain man who has mastered a magical spell that gives West Virginia not only its berths in the tournament but its clutch 3-point shooting ability. And it scares me that they will do the same thing again this year. However, this year's seedings have not been so kind though to either squad. Indiana will be going against a San Diego State team built much in the manner of a Big Ten squad - big power inside and at least one deadly guard on the perimeter. Look at the successful Big Ten teams and tell me that they do not have the same make-up. They have to. The entire conference pounds its way out inside, game after game. Illinois had more shooting threats last year, and this enabled them to do more when the post was clogged. Indiana doesn't have that, especially with Robert Vaden a question mark for the game. West Virginia gets a scrappy Southern Illinois squad making their fourth straight tournament appearance - how many schools in the tournament can say that? Southern Illinois showed in their game against Bradley for the Missouri Valley title that they have the ability to hang outside with the best teams. They also were outrebounding a taller and stronger inside team. While Southern Illinois is not the prototype for the team I see beating West Virginia (and likely second round opponent, Iowa, is), there is no counting them out in this game, and I will be putting an 11 on the second round line.

So, here's to the little guys -- the San Diego States, the Bradleys, the Bucknells, and George Masons. Let's all hope that they show Packer and Nantz that slogging to a mediocre record in a power conference doesn't warrant inclusion in the field. Playing your way in, and setting us up for a magical Cinderella run does.

Posted by bmiraski at 8:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 6, 2006

Performance Problems, But This Isn't the Cause

I would normally say that this is the reason for the Tennessee slide as of late, but these players barely appear on the court.

Two Vols were arrested on possession of crack cocaine with intent to sell and one of the pair added a charge for possession of marijuana.

Than again, maybe they needed all this to help them stand sitting on the bench watching as their season slowly slips away from them. No worries about that now as both have been suspended.

Tennessee has lost three of its last five games heading into the SEC tournament which begins this Thursday in Nashville, TN.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 2, 2006

People Go to College to LEARN?!?

Wednesday marked the first release of the NCAA's newest attempt to keep an eye on their athlete's education. The Academic Progress Rate, or APR, is based on a formula which gives a school credit for having athletes who maintain their grades and also do not transfer or drop out of school. The NCAA then measures this performance against their standards and will begin assessing penalties for schools who do not make the grade.

No offense to athletes in other sports, but the real revenue generators in athletics departments across the nation come in the form of big time Men's Basketball and Football. And by big time, I mean those schools that compete at the Division I level in basketball and the Division I-A level in football.

Take a guess at how many of the programs that we have come to expect to dominate the headlines were among the first offenders of the APR system.

The answer: None

No school that will be competing for the BCS crown, no school that has a shot at the Final Four in the next few years.

Zero.

Instead, the APR is going to be penalizing teams like Temple football, as if they weren't already hurting enough. Kicked out of the Big East conference and now a provisional MAC team after playing last year as an independent, winning a grand total of zero games, you wouldn't expect things could get worse. They finished next to last in the MRI, just being beaten for the worst spot by winless New Mexico State, who managed to squeeze in that twelfth loss to Temple's eleven. Yes, those same Temple Owls are going to be without 9 football scholarships next season. This won't help them be competitive in their new league.

Or will it? Among the football teams affected by the release are four other MAC teams, including conference leaders Toledo (6 scholarships) and Northern Illinois (2 scholarships). Without Bruce Gradkowski, the Rockets are probably not going to be the same team, but without the means to add players to its roster, they definitely won't be. Though, if you think that the positions that are going to be hurting will be the skill ones, you are probably mistaken. Most likely, there will be less 3rd string kickers available on the sidelines, you know, just in case.

In basketball, the trend is the same, though the penalties are a little more harsh - with a maximum of 13 scholarships, teams could be losing as many as two. Dave Leitao left behind the DePaul basketball team for Virginia. He also left them as they transfer into one of the toughest leagues in America, the Big East, with a huge deficit. The Blue Demons will be without one scholarship next year, the only school from the six so-called Power Conferences to be affected.

Of the other names on the list, only three even have a likely shot to win their conference tournament this year and make the NCAA field of 65 - Kent State of the MAC (2 scholarships), Hampton of the MEAC (2 scholarships), and Louisiana Tech of the WAC (1 scholarship). All of the others will be tuning into Selection Sunday merely to fill out their brackets correctly - not that there is any gambling in college athletics...

According to the AP article, there were 350 teams in danger of sanctions last season while only 99 made the final cut. What happened to the others? Is this a case of Jim Harrick-like classes (interestingly, Harrick's profile is still available on the Georgia athletics site) where students are pressured with difficult questions like "How many points is a three point basket worth?"

Most likely, no. But anyone who tells you that there is no pressure on teachers at major universities to pass athletes in danger of losing eligibility is not paying attention. While there have been a few high profile athletes forced to sit out part of this season at schools in the major conferences (See James Mays at Clemson), I have to believe there was some pressure to avoid any school with a major profile from being named in this first release.

As a side note, several schools have yet to present their data to the NCAA (Exactly how long does this process take? There are only two questions and they have yes or no answers): Arizona State University; Northern Arizona University; San Diego State University; San Jose State University; Texas A&M University, College Station; University of Arizona; University of Kansas; and Tulane University

Do I expect any of the school on that list to come up short? Ask me a few years ago and I might have said the two Arizona schools would be in trouble, but not today. Instead, the two schools that are most likely to be hurt are San Diego State and Tulane. Tulane, suffering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina, may now be subject to the loss of scholarships purely because so many of their student athletes transferred. San Diego State falls in that category of good, but not good enough to provide extra help like some other schools.

Will the APR solve the academic problems among student athletes? Probably not. First, the formula is overly simple and there are ways to control at least half of the equation, the academic eligibility. Second, instead of solving problems, it will make some schools better at hiding them and others will just have to come up with money in some way to afford extra tutoring or forever live on the edge. And where does that money come from? Perhaps the cutting of other athletic programs, or the loss of some non-athletics related activities. The bigger problem for those schools named may be that consistent appearances on the list by a team could lead to the loss of NCAA recognition, something none of the schools can afford if they expect to keep their athletic programs in place (although Temple might want to think twice if their football program is really worth it).

Pat Forde has what may be the simplest solution to the whole mess: make administrators wake up about where their schools truly fit in the athletic world.

It should be said that this issue cuts both ways. If some of the lesser schools were more realistic about their place in college athletics, they wouldn't be in this predicament.

I'd love to have someone show me the payoff for moving up to Division I-A football at Louisiana-Lafayette ($3.1 million in the red in 2003-04) and Louisiana-Monroe ($2 million in the red). They haven't even made it to the Sun Belt's sole postseason tie-in, the New Orleans Bowl.

If more of these schools knew their true place in the college sports hierarchy, the budget problem might not be so pronounced. And there might be more in the coffers to pay for academic support.

Does moving up to Division I really make that big of a difference for your school if you are consistently at the bottom of the league? Ask Savannah State's head basketball coach if his team loves losing almost every game by double digit points. Ask Idaho how well they have done in football since moving to Division I-A (even if I think that Dennis Erickson might be reason for optimism). The list of schools who have found success after the jump is very short - Boise State and South Florida in football and if hard pressed, I still couldn't tell you a single program in basketball that has seen major success. If schools would evaluate the move with their head instead of with the dollar signs in their eyes (which may not materialize), we may not see them having to compete with the Tennessees of the world, who have boosters that build academic centers specifically for athletes. Instead, these schools should be facing competition with the same resources they have, and providing a more level playing field overall.

Its probably no coincidence that over the weekend, a newspaper feature was released speaking to the ills of high school athletes who get special treatment academically in order to get them into colleges. The same is most likely happening across the nation now, just with less scrutiny at the college level. What is the solution that is being discussed? How about a return to the days when freshman weren't allowed to play. That would make sure that those reaching the college level were serious about doing college level work and weren't just there because someone in high school did them a favor. Sure, the college favors will still be there, but the college favors are a lot harder to come by when you aren't between the lines once or twice a week for 4 months at a time.

This is only the first release of the report and future releases should be telling. I know one thing. Just like steroids in baseball, no major school in either basketball or football wants to be the first team to appear on the list (Sorry, DePaul, you haven't been major for a long time) and have what happened to Rafael Palmeiro happen to them.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

March 1, 2006

Pop(s) Goes One Bubble

According to ESPN.com, the injury Pops Mensah-Bonsu sustained to his knee during the George Washington game against La Salle is more serious than originally thought. It will now require surgery to remove a piece of cartilage in the knee and that will keep Pops sidelined through the Atlantic 10 tournament.

This leaves the door open for a team from the Atlantic 10 to steal the automatic bid for the conference and potentially add that elusive second bid for the league.

The Colonials were able to survive the first three games of the season without their senior forward, but those games were against Kennesaw State, Norfolk State, and St. Francis (PA) - not exactly the caliber of teams in the Atlantic 10. George Washington won their first game without Pops in conference on Saturday when they beat Fordham. The only likely regular season test for the Colonials will be against Charlotte in the finale.

However, the Atlantic 10 tournament could have them matching up against teams like Temple and St. Joseph's. Temple had been getting some at-large buzz until a loss to Saint Louis last week, while St. Joe's is now a winner of four straight games and potentially five when they take on Duquesne in their last game of the season.

I would venture that we will see one potential bubble team see their hopes go down the drain because of a stolen bid in the Atlantic 10, a league that probably would only have sent George Washington to the tournament had Pops not been injured.

Pops Mensah-Bonsu is currently averaging 13.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. He has 37 blocks on the season, 7th in the Atlantic 10 conference.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

2001 Illinois All-State Basketball Team

The Peoria Journal Star runs an article every day in the sports page highlighting sports moments occurring 5,10, 25, and 50 years ago. This weekend, the interesting fact in the five year section was the selection of the Associated Press Class AA all-state basketball team in Illinois.

The winners of that honor:

• Peoria Central's Marcellus Sommerville - Currently a senior at Bradley after transferring from Iowa and Southwestern Illinois college. Recently named to the Missouri Valley's all-conference second team, the only Bradley player making the list. Leads the team in scoring with 15.8 points per game, 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference.
• Chicago Crane's Will Bynum - Played at Arizona for a year and a half before transferring to Georgia Tech. Led the Yellow Jackets off the bench in their run to the finals in 2003-4, scoring the winning basket in the National semi-final game. He was signed by the Celtics after being undrafted. He was then waived after four exhibition games.
• Joliet's Roger Powell - The Reverend played for Illinois, averaging 12 points a game in his senior season to help lead the Illini to the National Championship game against North Carolina. Undrafted, Powell tried out with the Seattle Supersonics but was waived in October. Powell is currently playing for the Rockford Lightning of the Continental Basketball Association. He is 5th in the league in scoring.
• Chicago Manley's Luther Head - Also a member of the Illinois's near championship run, Head averaged almost 16 points per game and finished his Illinois career with 1295 points. Named to the all-Final Four team and recipient of numerous other honors for his senior season, Head was drafted #24 in the first round by the Houston Rockets. He is currently averaging 8 points and 2.5 assists in 26.7 minutes per game for Houston.
• South Holland Thornwood's Eddy Curry - Drafted #4 in the first round by the Chicago Bulls straight out of high school. Despite high expectations, his first two years with the Bulls were full of frustration on a team that was consistently at the bottom of the standings. During 2002-3 led the NBA in field goal percentage. Finally maturing over the past two seasons, Curry was a major part of the Bulls run to the playoffs in 2005 before being sidelined with a heart ailment. After refusing to take a DNA test to see if the ailment was genetic, Curry was traded to the New York Knicks. He is currently averaging 13.7 points and 6.4 rebounds a game for the last place New York Knicks. His 53% shooting percentage is currently 4th in the NBA.

An interesting group of 5. Outside of Sommerville, the four players selected with him have received a great deal of press over the last year. Bynum for his tournament run two years ago and Georgia Tech's attempt last season. The two Illini players were on the tips of everyone's tongues and it is good to see both Powell and Head playing somewhere. Curry, until his injury, was finally receiving some love from the Chicago fans, which he quickly lost after refusing the DNA test.

Sommerville's story may yet be written. Bradley is making a hard run at the NCAA tournament and with the way the Missouri Valley conference is playing this season, anything can happen.

So here is a salute to the tops of the Illinois Senior Class of 2001. You have certainly given us much to talk about.

Posted by bmiraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

NIT Clinchers

UPDATED: March 12, 2006

Thanks to a new rule for the NIT allowing all regular season conference winners bids to the NIT, the following teams have already clinched themselves a place to play in March, no matter what happens over the next two weeks. Probable NCAA teams are noted with asterisks.

NIT'ing it:
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big Sky: Northern Arizona
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
Southern: Georgia Southern
MAAC: Manhattan
MEAC: Delaware State

Clinched NIT if not in NCAA:
Atlantic 10: George Washington*
Big XII: Kansas*, Texas*
Big East: Connecticut*, Villanova*
Big Ten: Ohio State*
Colonial: George Mason*
MVC: Wichita State*
SEC: LSU*
Southland: Northwestern State
SunBelt: Western Kentucky(*?)

Regular Season Winners clinched NCAA tournament:
ACC: Duke
America East: Albany
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Colonial: UNC-Wilmington
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: UW-Milwaukee
Ivy: Pennsylvania
MAC: Kent State
MCC: Oral Roberts
Mountain West: San Diego State
OVC: Murray State
PAC-10: UCLA
Patriot: Bucknell
SWAC: Southern
WAC: Nevada
West Coast: Gonzaga

Posted by bmiraski at 8:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 20, 2006

Three Coaches and a Record

The departures of Quin Snyder, Eddie Sutton, and Mike Davis had been written on the wall for a while. Sutton had already placed his son on the bench beside him, priming him to take over when the venerable coach had finished his reign. Missouri had been sliding down a long hill for the past few years, receiving accolades they weren't due and building a large file in the NCAA offices. Indiana never seemed to embrace Mike Davis, despite his National Championship loss to Maryland in 2002. All three will be absent from the bench soon, though there are some lingering questions in the air.

Missouri doesn't make anyone's A-list in terms of choices. Take for instance the highly publicized naming of their basketball facility after a major donor's daughter who didn't even attend Missouri. That lasted all of a week before the University wisely changed its mind and named the arena something a little more appropriate. Snyder's time in charge at Missouri was just as troubled.

If you go back in time to before Snyder, Norm Stewart didn't do anything to help the reputation of the school. Bringing in a coach from a well respected institution like Duke should have solved all that. Instead, it just made things worse. While the first few seasons under Snyder were happy, with the team winning and going to the NCAA tournament, the core of the program was still rotten. Snyder was secretly committing NCAA violations from the start of his time at Missouri and they all surfaced during the Ricky Clemons investigation. That is not the sort of thing that you would expect from someone who cut their teeth under Coach K. Amazingly the school survived without being banned from the post-season and while the season began with some great hopes, things quickly fell apart for the Tigers. They won't be going anywhere when the season ends, no matter what the sanctions.

Based on MRI numbers, Missouri was unfairly rewarded in two of Snyder's years with NCAA berths. Sure, they won a few games under Snyder in that tournament, but in two of those wins, they also beat teams that the MRI did not think deserved to be there. Missouri got by on reputation and now that reputation is gone.

It will be interesting to see who is brought in to replace Snyder. In the aftermath of his resignation, stories have surfaced which made it sound like he was strong armed out of the job before the season ended by the administration. Whoever comes in will have to deal with a hostile environment and will most likely lose some of the players on the current roster. There is a good chance that the program will not keep Melvin Watkins on once the season ends. Watkins is the interim coach in the wake of the Snyder debacle. With the state of the program and the way things were handled under Snyder, Watkins and the rest of the staff will most likely be looking elsewhere for jobs.

If you look at mid-major programs that have amassed a good record over the last few seasons, a number of the the top coaches have already been stolen away. One school that comes to mind where the coach has been doing well since 2002, is UNC-Wilmington.

Brad Brownell has one of the top programs in the Colonial conference, a conference that this year may receive two NCAA bids, including one for his own team. He has to recruit against some of the biggest programs in the country when he looks at his own state. Brownell may not be ready to go anywhere, but his is one name to keep an eye on for the job.

Things were a little different for Mike Davis at Indiana. He isn't ready to leave just yet. He still believes in his team and their chances for the tournament - at least, a tournament.

Indiana did nothing to help their tournament chances over the past week, losing to both Penn State and Illinois, to extend their losing streak to five games. Davis and his squad will be lucky to hold on for the NIT.

Davis has been troubled since he took over the program. Never the administration's first choice after the firing of Bobby Knight, Davis has battled to be welcomed ever since. The welcome never came. Kept on to finish the season with the team after the Knight firing, it was only because of the urging of the players and potentially a secret agreement between Knight and the University. Davis was then promoted to the full time coaching position, but only after a high profile search yielded no candidates with either the interest of the resume. And so Davis struggled on.

Living in Chicago, you can't help but hear the groans during an Indiana basketball season the last few years. Each game was another reason to add to the mounting list of why Davis was not right for the job. The Hoosiers might not win by enough points against a lower opponent. The Hoosiers might lose a game to a top team, one they might have had a shot in. The Hoosiers will lose a big lead down the stretch, failing to close out games and making games more exciting than they needed to be. This year, after star DJ White when down with an injury that totally ruined the team chemistry, it was again the fault of Mike Davis. These grievances and more followed Davis everywhere, including during the 2001-2 season when Davis led his team to the National Championship game, only to lose to Maryland.

One of the most prestigious jobs in college coaching will be open at the end of this season. None of Davis's staff will be considered for the job - the University will not want to make a repeat of what they see as their latest mistake. According to Davis, Indiana would do well to choose one of its own to replace him. The real question is how many of these coaches will be willing to leave their current situation. A number of them have already removed their names from consideration for the post.

One of the top names who has not is Steve Alford. While he won't discuss the job right now and has stated that he will only take the job if he is the only candidate considered, he has not ruled it out. Alford may be an Indiana legend but he would do well to think about staying at Iowa. The pressure on Alford would be greater than anything he has seen with the Hawkeyes, and even there, he has not done particularly well. With little success in either the Big Ten or the NCAA tournament, Indiana and Alford may be getting themselves into a poor situation.

So who could Indiana turn to? It could be a long shot, but it might be worth a call to someone who has previously turned around two programs in the state of Indiana, once as a player and once as a head coach. The tall blond boy from French Lick, Indiana, could be the one that Indiana is looking for. Why Larry Bird? He single handedly led Indiana State to a chance at a National Title. He turned around the Indiana Pacers when the stands were empty and no player wanted to go there. He could do the same at Indiana. What high school shooter wouldn't relish the chance to play under Larry Bird? He would have the greatest recruiting draw ever in just his name. It would be a dream match-up, one that Indiana fans may never get to see.

While Missouri and Indiana will be looking for head coaches at the end of the year, Oklahoma State won't. But they will need to know if they should promote their now interim head coach Sean Sutton to the top post. Eddie Sutton left the school in a small bind when he went on medical leave following both his car accident and entry into rehab.

The elder Sutton has battled alcoholism before, most dramatically at Kentucky where he was let go after his addiction interfered with his ability to run the program. Now, it has returned to plague him as his body slowly fights against him staying on the sidelines. Chronic back pain has harmed the head coach this season and led to his being absent from the bench often. His age led him to place his son on the bench as his top assistant for just such occasions when he couldn't go, and the younger Sutton has done well backing up his father.

Now Sean steps into the vacancy, at least only temporarily for now. Eddie Sutton believes that he can recover and return to Oklahoma State to continue pursuing his quest for 800 wins. While numbers are important in basketball, just as in any other sport, this number may not be worth the price. The pursuit is obviously hurting Sutton's health and now has caused him to slip backward in his fight against alcoholism. No number is worth the damage that could do to him and his family.

He had made all the correct decisions in the past by placing his son behind him and lining him up to take the job when he thought it was time. Now all that remains is for Eddie Sutton to acknowledge that it is that time now. His career will still be great, his numbers will still stand out. Now is the time for Eddie to give something back to Oklahoma State like that has given him so much.

Quick Hits for the week:

• Congratulations to J.J. Redick who set the all-time Duke scoring mark with 30 points against Miami. Redick passed his assistant coach, Johnny Dawkins, who stood and cheered after a Redick three point shot earned him the record. Redick is now 30 points behind the all-time ACC mark, currently held by Wake Forest alumnus, Dickie Hemric. He will have his shot to pass Hemric on Wednesday when the Blue Devils take on Georgia Tech. This will be the only meeting of the year between the two teams unless they meet in the ACC tournament.
• Earlier in the weekend, the NIT announced that they will invite all regular season conference champions who do not make the NCAA tournament to the NIT. This is a great way to celebrate the success of those teams who triumphed over two or three months of conference play and not just a single weekend in March. While this sounds like a great idea to fill about five or six spots (an average number of upsets in the conference tournaments which do not also make the NCAAs) of the 40 with the conference winners, this may not give the best teams in the country to the chance to compete. You may say that the best teams are already in the NCAA tournament, and I would agree, but the best thing about the NIT tournament may be that it gives younger teams who excelled a chance to play a few more games against good competition before next season. It has consistently been the proving grounds for teams that the next year have excelled. While some of the teams that will get spots definitely deserve to go, would you still say the same thing if a team like Southern from the SWAC or Delaware State from the MEAC ended up getting a spot?

  The NIT also decided to waive their previous rule that all teams had to have a .500 record overall. This leaves open the door to fill out the field with sub-par major conference teams instead of the mid-major teams that have had their chances in the past.

  The NIT had previously rewarded great play in a conference season and there was no need to expand that rule to include many of the lower conferences where the level of play is just not the same. Changing the .500 rule hurts those mid-major teams from the next level of conferences beyond the top 6. These teams deserve the chances they have been given in the past, in lieu of teams that couldn't break even during the year. Hopefully, the committee will still do the right thing come tournament selection time and give the most deserving teams a spot.

• Back when Savannah State was winless, I mentioned that the formula I use to generate the confidence factor for the MRI had a point where no team had ever lost a game. And that came to an end last week. Norfolk State lost to Morgan State at home, a game that had a rating over 14 in the confidence scale and caused the first loss in the range. Of over 10,000 games rated, only 100 had ever been in that range, and now, only one has ever been predicted wrong. I guess you have to count on one of those upsets in every 10,000 games. In a few years, maybe this will be the 1-16 game in the tournament.
• While the MRI didn't fare so well in that game, the MRI did go 12-1 in predicting the televised Bracket Buster games from the weekend. There was no way I was going to be able to guess all 50 games that were scheduled, but the televised ones sure did a good job of battling the MRI system.
• I ran the tournament simulation that I used last year on this week's projections. Each region was run 25 times with the two best Elite Eight teams moving on. Then the final eight were run 50 times. The winner? Memphis, who won 17 of the 50 trials and finished second in seven more. Second best was the current MRI leader Duke who won 12 times and finished second nine times. Most surprising was #1 seed Connecticut who failed to win any of the 50 trials despite making the final game 10 times.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:00 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack

February 18, 2006

Bracket Busters, Part 3

The final five games of the Bracket Buster weekend feature some of the best chances for a big run come tournament time. What does the MRI say about the evening run of games?

Louisiana Tech(89) at Southern Illinois(55)
Louisiana Tech has come from nowhere to suddenly be close to the top in the WAC, behind only Nevada. Three losses in their last five games though have the Bulldogs wondering if they can compete. Two of those losses have come against the conference leader and in a small conference, it won't be long before they see them in the conference tournament. If Louisiana Tech can't pull off a win in a potential third meeting, they will most likely be going to the NIT. Southern Illinois still has a chance to cash in on their tournament dreams. As we have seen, the MVC has a great shot at multiple bids this year and Southern Illinois is near the top of the list for that honor. The Salukis though are currently struggling on the court and in the MRI. They have, like Louisiana Tech, lost three of their last five, including their last against Bradley, a team that has quickly been coming on in the Valley. Southern Illinois needs this win to keep them in the running and avoid being passed or replaced by another Valley team for that dance bid. The latest MRI projection had Southern Illinois as one of the last teams in the tournament and there is no room for more slips like that at this point in the season.
MRI Predicts: Southern Illinois Confidence factor: 79.13%
MRI Result: Loss

George Mason(15) at Wichita State(28)
Both of these teams should be going to the tournament no matter what happens to them in their conference tournaments, at least if I had my way. George Mason and Wichita State are currently leading their respective conferences and both those conferences have definitely shown that they can compete this year. The Colonial entry in this game has been flying through their conference schedule. They haven't lost since late January and their final two games in the conference should be wins for the Patriots. George Mason will most likely be matching up against UNC-Wilmington at the end of the Colonial tournament and both of those teams should be dancing. Another win against a projected tournament team can only make that more secure. All five starters for the Patriots score in double figures and four of those are shooting 45% or better. Senior forward Jai Lewis leads that crowd and will probably get at least one chance to alley-oop from Tony Skinn in this game. While George Mason has been dominating in the Colonial, Wichita State has been scrapping away in the MVC. The Shockers have four losses in the conference and all of those have come against the other teams that are projected as going to the tournament, the only one of the contenders that can say that. Wichita State is led by senior Paul Miller, both on the the scoreboard and the back boards. He will have a great fight inside against Lewis. This is the one game on Saturday that you can not afford to miss if you want your bracket to look correct in March. Expect the tournament committee to be watching for some seeding recommendations.
MRI Predicts: George Mason Confidence factor: 51.76%
MRI Result: Win

Samford(105) at Ohio(128)
Samford is currently three games behind Murray State for the Ohio Valley lead and barring an upset will not be dancing in March. Ohio was expected to repeat this year in the MAC and that will not happen either at this point. The leading scorer for Samford, Robert Merritt, is shooting close to 50% from three point range so look for him to be deadly from outside. Leon Williams and Mychal Green should tag team the scoring for the Ohio Bobcats.
MRI Predicts: Ohio Confidence factor: 51.43%
MRI Result: Win

Northwestern State(103) at Utah State(69)
As recently as last week, the MRI is still projecting the Southland leader, Northwestern State, as a #16 seed in the tournament. That is if the Demons can make it. This game could go a long way towards improving that seed should they pull the upset against Utah State. The Demons are led in scoring by Clifton Lee, averaging over 17 points per game. They also have four players who average more than a steal a game, including Tyronn Mitchell at 2.2, so Utah State will have to concentrate on holding onto the ball better than they have been known to do. Utah State is caught in their own battle with Nevada and Louisiana Tech in the WAC, since moving from the the Big West conference this season. During their time in the Big West, Utah State was consistently one of the teams that the MRI rated highly come tournament time. They were the perfect example of a team that was good enough to move up in conference and doing so has been tough but the Aggies have proven they are up to the challenge. There is still a shot for Utah State to make the tournament as an at-large, but they definitely need to win this game and a few in their conference tournament to do that. Look for a few rejections in this game as Nate Harris, the co-leader in scoring for the Aggies, averages 0.9 blocks and his inside partner Cass Matheus averages 1.6.
MRI Predicts: Utah State Confidence factor: 79.13%
MRI Result: Win

Fresno State(162) at Creighton(46)
Far be it for me to criticize the ESPN programming gurus, but placing this game at midnight Eastern time might not have been so kind to the home team. An 11 PM start in Nebraska coupled with playing a West Coast team could definitely give some advantage to the visiting squad. Well, it isn't like Creighton hasn't been the underdog before. The Bluejays should be assured of their place in the tournament at this point but two straight losses were not on the plan going into this game. I have a sneaky suspicion that the selection committee is looking for any reason to reduce the number of teams from the MVC going to the tournament. A loss here for their third straight will move Creighton from "In" to "On the Bubble" once again. Look for Anthony Tolliver to be tough inside for the Jays and give the smaller, faster Bulldog team a tough time. Fresno State won't be going anywhere in March thanks to sanctions they placed on themselves. They are instead playing for pride here, including knowing that they may have stopped one of the mid-major darlings from going to the dance.
MRI Predicts: Creighton Confidence factor: 92.72%
MRI Result: Win

Posted by bmiraski at 11:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Bracket Busters, Part 2

There are 11 more games on the slate for Bracket Buster weekend. The MRI is encouraged by a great record after the first night so here are more predictions for the beginning part of the day.

Bucknell(31) at Northern Iowa(30)
Both of these teams look like they have their place in the tournament secure, but it is never too late to get one more quality win added to their resume. Bucknell hasn't slowed down since their shocking upset of Kansas in the first round of last year's tournament and is currently one of the last undefeated teams in conference play. Wins against Syracuse, DePaul, and St. Joseph's, have helped to increase their tournament resume. The Bison are the first team from their conference to be ranked and look to improve that number next to their name with a win against the Panthers. Northern Iowa is locked in a tough battle in the Missouri Valley. After being ranked themselves earlier this year, they have dropped 3 of 5 in the conference, including two tough ones in a row against Missouri State and Indiana State. The Panthers could use this game to stop the slide and lead them into their final two conference games before what should be a very interesting MVC tournament.
MRI Predicts: Northern Iowa Confidence factor: 59.88%
MRI Result: Win

Buffalo(112) at Iona(49)
Here is another game where one of the teams didn't fair as well lately as they should have. Buffalo has lost five of their last six, including three against the co-leaders of the MAC West, Akron and Kent State. As a result, Buffalo is no longer going to be jumping in as a second bid from the MAC, though the chances were slim in the first place. They will have their hands full yet again with Iona, the team that right now is leading the other MAC, the MAAC. The Gaels haven't run away with the conference this year like they have in years past and there is still a chance for some upsets out there in the conference tournament for them. Their leading scorer, Steve Burtt throws in 24.6 points per game, almost J.J. Redick-like numbers, and will be interesting to watch if you tune in on-line. Neither team is going to steal any bid away from the big boys come March, but Iona, should they make the tournament, could cause some fits.
MRI Predicts: Iona Confidence factor: 82.86%
MRI Result: Win

Butler(65) at Kent State(51)
If you want two teams with a lot to prove, here you go. Butler has slowly come back twice after bad starts this season. They began their run 2-3 and finished their non-conference run at 7-5. Then conference season began and suddenly, the Bulldogs were near the bottom of the conference after another 2-3 start. Things have changed though and Butler has climbed to within a half game of league leading Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Horizon league doesn't figure to get two bids, but that doesn't mean that Butler can't turn some heads and get people thinking with a good performance here. Kent State, meanwhile, is trapped in its own race atop its conference and right now, the MRI expects them to take home the MAC trophy. They are going to need it to make the NCAA tournament since, as we have talked about, the MAC is only going to get one. Kent State didn't fair very well outside of conference this season and could use a win against another quality team before March.
MRI Predicts: Kent State Confidence factor: 72.42%
MRI Result: Win

Missouri State(19) at Wisconsin-Milwaukee(39)
The MRI loves Missouri State. They had a Top 5 start in the MRI and have hung in or near the Top 25 ever since that. Playing in the Missouri Valley has also been good to them, facing them against high quality opponents night after night. While they aren't the tops in the conference, they are the current MRI leader and are slowly getting noticed by the rest of the world. Going into the game, a number of projections other than the MRI have the Bears on the outside looking in at this point, but just barely. As a result, a win against a team projected in the tournament from outside their conference could really help. The Bears are the MRI's surprise pick in March, so now it is just a matter of them getting there. Meanwhile, Wisconsin-Milwaukee needs this win for other reasons. They are still the leaders in the their conference, but they have fallen back to the pack lately after three losses in their last five. They have only one conference game remaining after their bracket buster game and a win could help them start a streak as they head into the conference tournament. The Panthers proved themselves well last March and will be looking to surprise again. Last year's version did its damage after finishing at 50 in the regular season MRI. If this year's mark is any indication, the surprise might be even bigger this year.
MRI Predicts: Missouri State Confidence factor: 51.76%
MRI Result: Win

Northern Arizona(132) at Western Kentucky(47)
Every time that Northern Arizona is brought up, I check the MRI. And the MRI still tells me that they lag behind conference foe Montana. So, do I smell an upset brewing in the conference tournament? Possibly. Montana had the more impressive non-conference wins, including one against Stanford, while Northern Arizona limped into conference season. And conference season has been a struggle itself. All the Lumberjack wins have been by ten or less points, so they haven't blow anyone out of the gym. That is one reason why their game today against the Hilltoppers might be even more difficult. Other than South Alabama, Western Kentucky has had no real competition in the Sun Belt so far this year. Sure, they had that one game like everyone where you just don't show up mentally, and that stopped them from being perfect in the conference so far. Otherwise, the Hilltoppers are rolling so fast, they could roll their bus right into a first round tournament location. Western Kentucky is strong on the boards but will need to hold on to the ball a little better than they have. A win here could improve the Western Kentucky seeding should they hold true to form and make the NCAA tournament.
MRI Predicts: Western Kentucky Confidence factor: 86.02%
MRI Result: Win

Marist(94) at Old Dominion(67)
Marist has slowly been pulling themselves back into the conference race in the MAAC after a painful start with losses against both the teams ahead of them in the standings. They have gotten their revenge, winning both the rematches and now sit in third as the conference tournament looms. While they are not going to do any bracket busting by stealing a big, the Red Foxes can continue their roll into the conference tournament with a win against a strong team from one of the top mid-major conferences. Look for junior Jared Jordan to make a lot of plays on the floor. He leads the team with an average of two steals and 8.6 assists per game. He also leads the team in scoring. If Marist makes the tournament, he will certainly be a star. Old Dominion was projected to be leading the Colonial conference and leading the charge for two bids from that league. Things haven't gone quite so well for the Monarchs and they have struggled into 4th in a very tough league. Their only shot at the tournament is to run through the Colonial tournament and that will not be easy with the way that George Mason and UNC-Wilmington are playing. The Monarchs need this win to keep focused and their size advantage should give them the advantage they need.
MRI Predicts: Old Dominion Confidence factor: 73.64%
MRI Result: Win

Posted by bmiraski at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 17, 2006

Bracket Busters, Part 1

With only 20 minutes until tip-off in two of the all important Bracket Buster games, the MRI is going to take a shot at projecting the winners early.

Albany(123) vs. Virginia Commonwealth(82)
With Virginia Commonwealth struggling, losing three of four, and Albany leading one of the lowest rated conferences in the league, there may not be much bracket busting for either of these teams. Albany is the leader in the America East conference and is the current projected winner of the conference tournament by the MRI. That still slots them in one of the four #16 seeds though in the MRI's latest tournament projection. As a result, their only hope to bust a bracket is to do something that has never been done before, beat a #1 seed in the first round. VCU's road to the tournament is going to have to be through the conference tournament and right now, no one looks good enough to beat either UNC-Wilmington or George Mason. With both those teams currently projected as "IN" the tournament by the MRI, maybe all VCU can do is knock one of them out.
MRI Predicts: Virginia Commonwealth Confidence factor: 79.13%
MRI Result: Win

Akron(62) vs. Nevada(44)
Nevada's stumbles in mid-January kept them from running away with the WAC title and have left them sitting on the bubble for an at-large bid. That was something that was not expected from Nick Fazekas and the rest of the Wolfpack at the beginning of the season when they were ranked. Now, they face an surging Akron team and a loss here could seriously jeopardize at-large hopes for coach Mark Fox and Nevada should they fail to win the WAC tournament. Akron is currently tied in the standings with MRI conference leader Kent State in the difficult MAC East. Unfortunately for the Zips, the Western side of the conference hasn't held up their end of the bargain this year and it looks to be a one-bid league. Tonight's match-up certainly has them in the role of spoiler though some television exposure for the team could have everyone talking about leading scorer and rebounder Romeo Travis should the Zips get through the MAC.
MRI Predicts: Nevada Confidence factor: 72.42%
MRI Result: Win

Posted by bmiraski at 5:38 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 1, 2006

AP Editors Sleeping

I am sure I have made plenty of mistakes in my writing over the past five years, so this may be a case of me throwing stones when I live in a glass house.

However, there is a certain level of quality that we should expect out of the AP. The Associated Press provides stories to so many news outlets and websites that it is safe to say that almost half of what we consistently read at ESPN.com or in the paper is written and edited by the AP. So, when there is a rash of mistakes, it tends to get noticed. There have been two that I have noticed since Thursday, and probably more lurking in the wings.

Dateline: Thursday, January 26, 2006

Drexel loses to Old Dominion by seven after blowing a halftime lead and giving up a run late in the ball game to the Monarchs that they never recovered from. The AP covered this story with less than great enthusiasm. In fact, their article ran all of seven sentences. Over about 200 words, you would imagine that very little could go unnoticed, but you would be wrong.

Let's look at that run a little more closely. The AP writes that a free throw by Dominick Mejia tied the game at 52. In the next sentence, well, let's let you read it for yourself.

Isaiah Hunter capped a 10-0 run for Old Dominion, putting them up 63-52 with 3:27 to play.

I was no math major but even a group of 5th and 6th graders could point the error in that statement.

Maybe the editors had one bad night. It is not like this game was covered nationally and there were probably few that even read about it on Yahoo's site other than the people who will read this article and link over. So, let's just mark that one down as bad luck.

Dateline: February 1, 2006

Apparently former Tennessee coach Don DeVoe has joined the selection committee for the NIT. This should be good for the NIT. He has a lot of former experience and replaces Gene Keady, the former Purdue head man.

The AP did a nice job of covering that on ESPN with this article in their typical sparse style of writing.

Most interesting thing about the article? DeVoe's resume.

DeVoe won more than 500 career games at five Division I schools -- Virginia Tech, Wyoming, Tennessee, Florida and Navy. He coached two years at Wyoming in the 1976-77 and 1977-78 seasons, compiling a 29-25 record.

He also served as an assistant coach at Army in the 1960s and won the 1973 NIT title with Virginia Tech in 1971.

But he was best known for his stint at Tennessee, where he led the Volunteers to seven NCAA tournament appearances in 11 seasons.

Did you catch that?

He apparently won the 1973 NIT in 1971. Someone get in touch with this man and get the plans for his time machine.

There can be no forgiving this one. Looking on the NIT's official website, DeVoe won the 1973 NIT in, amazingly enough, 1973. It looks like the editors may even have been a bit overzealous in their editing on this one. The official press release from the NCAA mentions that DeVoe began his coaching career at Virginia Tech in 1971. Perhaps an editor, in their great wisdom, chose to remove that little detail, leaving us the wondrous time anomaly.

Great work once again AP. I look forward to your crack reporting on future basketball happenings. But next time, let's wake up the editors and get them more coffee and math tutoring.

Posted by bmiraski at 6:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 17, 2006

Couch Musings - January 17, 2006

It is halftime of the Illinois-Indiana game and already I am starting to worry about my article from Monday. Why is it that nothing can actually go the way that I think it will? A couple of thoughts on last night's contests.

• At least Gonzaga won last night, which is nothing new. What is new is that they had huge contributions from JP Batista and Derek Raivio to beat Loyola Marymount soundly. The Zags are starting to get the contributions from the other players to support the play of Adam Morrison. I am not ready to give them the Final Four like some ESPN announcers just yet, but this is a good sign for a team that I am skeptical of.
• I guess we saw last night which way the Kansas season is going to go. They shot terribly for long stretches of the game and the freshman problems are more evident than they are hidden. First, you have to make your free throws. Shooting only 60% from the line is not going to win you games and in this case, it probably cost them the game. Early in the contest against Missouri, they were leading by a slim margin. At the time, they were 2 for 8 from the free throw line. Now, imagine just hitting a few more of those free throws. All of a sudden, a four point lead is an eight point lead. That is a major difference in terms of perception for a Missouri team that needed that win just as much as Kansas did. Of course, the most obvious missed free throws were at the end of regulation when Christian Moody missed two shots when making just one would have secured the win for Kansas. Second, the late game ball management by Brandon Rush was atrocious. With time running down in overtime, Rush threw the ball away after driving to the hoop. This was not the only time that Rush mishandled the ball in the overtime and more than anything players need to know their roles late in games. He should know that he is a shooter and not a fancy play maker. He is not a ball handler and should not be dribbling more than required to get close to the basket. If anything you can blame that second point both on the players and the coaching staff. Coaching is paramount late in games, especially when your team's season may hang in the balance. This was a misstep by the Kansas coaches, one they may not have a chance to get back.
• Despite the poor play of Kansas both at the free throw line and late in the overtime, let's take nothing away from Missouri's Thomas Gardner and Jimmy McKinney. Both players made huge contributions for their team and helped to lead the comeback by the Tigers and even get them to overtime. Gardner finished with 40 points, a career high, and was the focus of the Tiger offense all evening. McKinney contributed when needed to take the heat away from Gardner and give the Kansas defense a second target to concentrate on. McKinney finished with 19 including 5 during a very key stretch in the second half. Missouri took this game away from Kansas and these two were the keys.
• Connecticut is beginning to scare me. They look good and proved it last night in the victory over Syracuse even if the final numbers don't show the domination they had in the game. 16 blocks are nothing to laugh at. 19 assists are nothing to laugh at, including 11 from Marcus Williams, playing in only his 5th game this season. This wasn't Savannah State that Connecticut was playing. This was Syracuse, winners of 12 straight games. What scares me the most is that this team looks a lot like Syracuse, just not Syracuse of 2005-6. They look like Syracuse of 200-2-3 who won the National Title. What do I mean? Look at the domination inside. Early in the season that year, I commented on how tough the Orange were going to be to beat because of the zone and the size they boasted inside. Now look at Connecticut with Hilton Armstrong leading the way and tell me that the Huskies don't have they same look. Look at the great court presence from the point and a strong forward. Back in Syracuse's season, it was Carmelo Anthony and Jerry McNamara. Now we have Rudy Gay and Marcus Williams. And just like Syracuse that season, Connecticut just can't seem to climb in the MRI and that is a scary sign. The only difference between their seasons? Connecticut is getting love in the polls and won't be a surprise if they take it all this season.

Posted by bmiraski at 6:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 16, 2006

Injuries and Returns

Injuries have begun to plague teams trying to compete this year. UCLA, Indiana, and Duke have all been hit. Some of them actually thought they were going to get their injured players back, only to see them go back down again, some for good. While all this is happening, Randolph Morris came back to Kentucky. Not that it did them any good.

You would think that a team needing inside help would have welcomed back the inside presence of Morris with open arms. Tubby Smith contended that nothing was wrong with his team to begin with and that Morris would only make the Wildcats better. It is too bad the results have shown differently.

Prior to Morris's return, the leading rebounder for Kentucky was guard Rajon Rondo. Rondo is 6'1" and is lucky if the 171 pounds he is listed at is true. This is not the kind of Wildcat team we were used to seeing. They lost at Kansas, which really exposed the inside problems and totally took away any scoring effort from the Cats. In the loss at Kansas, Smith had in one year, the two worst losses of his career as a coach.

Morris should have been a godsend. 6'10", the middle should have finally been secure with the guards left to roam the outside and fire at will.

"Bring Vanderbilt to town. They can't win at Rupp Arena. Sure, they are improved from what we would expect from a Vanderbilt team, but this is Kentucky. This is Rupp Arena. We have back our inside man."

And yet, the unthinkable happened. Vanderbilt won and almost shut out the inside game that Morris was supposed to provide. Other than his 10 points and seven boards, the Wildcats looked lost, leading Smith to have to pull the entire starting line-up early in the game.

"No worries though. Alabama is coming. We can beat Alabama. We usually beat them at home. This shouldn't be a problem."

However, it was a problem. Smith started a larger lineup including Morris and managed to win a contest on the boards. It was too bad that the defense left a lot to be desired. For only the fourth time in 82 games, Kentucky allowed a team to shoot over 50% from the field and that ultimately did them in. Not even 19 points from Morris was going to be enough to compete with that.

So what does this mean for Kentucky? No longer ranked and for good reason, there is a lot wrong in Lexington that hasn't been wrong there is a while. The conference season is just starting and Kentucky has not been lucky with the draw so far, but losing both games at home is a scary trend. They can overcome 0-2. The SEC is down enough this year that there are wins there but their road has gotten tougher. They now have to get back that win against Vandy at Vandy. They don't play Alabama again and that should have been a win at home.

Their next game is against Georgia on the road. Late last season, the Wildcats had to struggle to beat a Georgia team with a lot less talent than Kentucky. Georgia is playing well this season at 11-5 and despite a 1-2 conference record, they may have had the toughest run so far, playing Florida and at Tennessee. Levi Stukes and the rest of the very good guards for the Bulldogs can give Kentucky fits. If Morris can be stopped inside, this could come down to a game of who shoots better from the floor. And even then, if they let Morris score, we have seen from the Alabama game that Kentucky can be taken.

Kentucky can still make a season of this. At 10-6, they don't have the resume that they normally have to be considered an easy run to the tournament. The SEC season is going to make or break this team for the first time in a long time and there is a possibility for the first time in a while that Kentucky may not break even in conference. The conference is going to treat Kentucky like sharks treat blood in the water. They are going to zone in and take advantage any way they can. Don't be surprised to see an 0-3 start for Kentucky and at some point to see them 6-6 in conference. Given the end of the conference schedule, that might be as good as it gets.

Quick Hits for the Week:

• I am not yet sold on Gonzaga. For the first time in the last few years, this is not a team. It is Adam Morrison surrounded by four guys who make less mistakes than the other team. Sure, some of those players step up, maybe one per game. The team still remains focused around Morrison and without him, they are going to struggle and there are ways to beat them. And they have been beaten this year. Teams are not going to be surprised by the Zags any longer. The game against Santa Clara last Monday was almost a shocker for Gonzaga and the Broncos gave them a game by removing J.P. Batista from the mixture. Before the Zags get to the NCAA tournament (and they will because they should win their conference), they need to find a way to win on a night when Morrison doesn't lead the team. It will happen. We have seen it happen before -- Tim Duncan and Wake Forest, The Kenyon Martin-less Cincinnati team. Morrison will have a target on his back and chances are, teams in the tournament are going to have pretty good aim.
• I was almost ready to welcome Kansas back to the Top 25 this week in the MRI. And then they stumbled against Kansas State... at home! The same home court that they soundly defeated Kentucky on a week earlier. I am not sure what to think of the Jayhawks yet. They are a young team but the youth has started and played half their season together. This should have been a team coming together, not a team that is on the verge of coming apart. Tonight's game against Missouri should go a long way towards saying what the season will be like in Lawrence the rest of the way. Maybe we should prepare early for a Kansas-Kentucky match in the NIT...
• Indiana is without D.J. White indefinitely and that should cause concern. With him, he provided a second option inside to take away some of the pressure from Marco Killingsworth. Killingsworth is good but he can not patrol the inside all by himself and it was evident against Michigan State in the Hoosier loss. Michigan State was able to rotate a solid set of big men inside against him and despite his 27 points, he was neutralized inside. He finished with one rebound which came early in the game and the pressure inside caused him to turn the ball over 5 times. Granted Michigan State has a deeper bench inside than most teams that Indiana will see in the Big Ten. They will still find trouble when a team can post two good big men against Killingsworth. Look for Illinois to cause them some problems on Tuesday.
• Speaking of Indiana, there are two things that are starting to bother me about coverage of games and both happened in their game against Michigan State.
  
  • The first I blame on coaches. That is letting injured players be interviewed during a game. DJ White was interviewed by the sideline reporter during a timeout and then the interview continued on into the game action. While it was obvious that White was not going to play, this can only be a distraction to a team and the other players. This leads me to believe in a lack of discipline by the coaching staff. Notice that you don't see this allowed at most of the top programs in the country. Coach K would never allow an injured player to be interviewed. I guarantee you that Jim Boeheim wouldn't. Yet, for some reason Mike Davis did allow this. Maybe the Hoosier alumni are right to call for his departure.
  • The second item is projecting teams as locks for the NCAA tournament. Both Michigan State and Indiana were projected as locks for the tournament by the game's announcers. At the time, Michigan State was 0-2 in conference and with the strength of the Big Ten, they were looking at a long road. Indiana had just lost one of their top players for who knows how long and we had no idea how the team was going to respond. Projecting any team as a lock this early in the conference season is a mistake. We have seen teams who have great pre-conference runs, such as Iowa, and then totally blow up when it comes to Big Ten play. Last season, Michigan was looking like a lock until they forgot how to play for the final third of their season. No team is a lock right now and no team will be a lock until half of the conference season is over. Until that time, announcers and writers should remember that there is a lot of basketball left to play and stranger things have happened.
• I thought this would be the last week for Missouri State in the MRI Top 25, especially after their crushing at the hands of the Shockers of Wichita State. Yet, they remain. Since the MRI started, only one team that was in the MRI Top 25 on Selection Sunday has not made the tournament. That bodes well for the Bears if they can stay there. The MVC definitely is playing like they deserve multiple bids this season, maybe three should the play remain as good as it has been. Missouri State may very well lead that group.
• Last, it took a 15-2 record before Syracuse got ranked this season. Good to know that the polls are still up to their craziness.

Posted by bmiraski at 5:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

April 3, 2005

You Get What You Asked For

After an amazing Elite Eight series of 4 games which saw 3 games in Overtime, one a double affair, it is no wonder that the two Final Four games failed to be as exciting. Two fairly even first halves, including a Michigan State lead, gave way to what many had been anticipating all season. Illinois and North Carolina asserted their dominance with defense and talent and pulled away from their respective foes setting up a final which could be talked about for years.

The hype surrounding this game will be intense. The NCAA tournament hasn't seen the top two teams in the polls facing one another since the mid-70s. In the meantime, there have been epic battles in the final game of the season, but somehow, none seem to have the draw of this one. Illinois and North Carolina tore out ahead of the rest of the league and established a standard that others failed to meet. Kansas tried, Boston College tried, Oklahoma State tried. None succeeded.

Given that the Illini almost fell at the hands of Arizona, and North Carolina got its scare during the Sweet Sixteen against Villanova, it was entirely possible to imagine a scenario where neither of these teams was in the Finals. Both have struggled at times to display the talent and potential which is inherent in both squads. Illinois consistently pulled games out after it appeared they had been lost, winning its share of close ones throughout the season to reach this point with only one loss. North Carolina, for its part, has disappeared in some of its matches. The talent goes away, frustration sets in, they look ordinary, their opponents take advantage.

Through it all though, no one is denying that this is the match-up we want. Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Dee Brown, Rashad McCants, Luther Head, Jackie Manuel, Roger Powell, Jawad Williams, James Augustine, Sean May. Add in first bench players Marvin Williams and Jack Ingram. If these two teams went to the NBA right now, they could win the Atlantic Division.

The fabulous guard play for Illinois will need to be on. Throughout the season, a strong inside man would give Illinois fits. Sean May is not going to roll over for the Illini. At the same time, North Carolina is going to have to get him help on the outside and not throw the ball away. Poor passing was a problem for North Carolina in the first half of the game against Michigan State. Nine turnovers in the first 20 minutes, including four by point guard Felton could have done them in. Michigan State was able to convert the turnovers into a lead at half time, but no further as North Carolina got it together in the second period. Illinois will not relent in its defensive pressure. Despite forcing only 5 turnovers on Saturday, you can guarantee that it will be the focus of the Illini to take away the ball from UNC before it gets in deep to May. Augustine gives up 30 pounds to the big man and that is a hard pounding to take for 40 minutes. Ingram and Nick Smith will need to do their part to spell Augustine with minutes to keep him fresh for the final stretch.

This season deserves a fantastic finish. We have seen fabulous games all season, close match-ups which ended in a great final plays and shots. No one is going to forget Salim Stoudamire in the final minutes against Oklahoma State, or Deron Williams when he got on against Arizona. The fabulous play of LSU forward Brandon Bass to tie the SEC semi-final. The last second shots by Charlotte's Brendan Plavich and Ohio State's Matt Sylvester. One can only hope that we are going to have something in the final reminiscent of these performances and that will be talked about alongside Christian Laettner's turn around jumper against Kentucky, Michael Jordan's final shot against Georgetown in 1982, or Lorenzo Charles's finishing dunk to give North Carolina State its improbable title in 1983.

Bring it on, Illinois and North Carolina. The country is watching and waiting.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

March 13, 2005

6 Games

Six games. That is all that remains between us and the field of 65. Twelve teams, some playing just to get into the field, others playing for a better seed. The winner of the SWAC can pretty much be assured of playing on Tuesday. The winner of the Southland game will know that they have to face one of the top 8 teams in the country, and would have to do something that only 4 teams have ever done. The other games, those are the gravy. Match-ups with teams playing for a banner, a seed a little higher, and the glory that comes with a championship season.

4670 games ago, the players stepped onto the floor, and the season began, and I can't remember a season that has been more dizzying, more heart stopping, more exciting. Teams from the top to bottom of major conferences, all very good. The Top 25 all season was as close as close can be. The MRI has never had more teams vying for spots three through seventeen. Every week, games coming down to the buzzer. Shots flying from half court, some going in, some not. This only intensified in the conference tournaments. Yesterday may have been the greatest day of basketball all season. Every game provided those stand up and cheer moments, and some weren't even finals.

A lot is on the line today for Duke and Oklahoma State. It is entirely possible that the most impressive winner of the two today, if they can even win, will capture a #1 seed. For Illinois, no matter if they win or lose, they will be slotted up at #1. And as for Kentucky and Florida, there would be no more perfect match-up in the finals, especially with the way Florida came back from a shaky start at the beginning of the year to come only a few points away from the regular season conference title.

I sit. I wait. I watch. The bracket is coming...and then the real fun will begin.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:27 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 14, 2005

Week 10 Commentary

The emails have started again. You know the ones I am talking about. They are the ones that consistently question how an undefeated Illinois team could possibly be listed below a North Carolina team with 3 losses, including a loss that came this week. There are a couple of responses to this. First, the loss earlier in the week did cause North Carolina to actually lose rating points for the week as a whole. Illinois, therefore, did gain on them in the rankings while pulling even further away from the #3 team, which was Kansas (though that will change again after Monday night's loss to Texas Tech). Second, the performance of Illinois in its wins against Michigan and Wisconsin was not something that shouted out the praises of the team. Sure they came from behind in the Michigan game and yes, they beat a Wisconsin team bent on revenge, yet Illinois was not the dominant team that they had been just a few weeks before which begs the question if they are getting tired.

Another factor in this question is the age old battle about who has the better conference, top to bottom, the ACC or the Big Ten. The MRI has consistently had the ACC as the better conference on average. Looking at the ACC-Big Ten challenge earlier this year, the ACC was the dominant league. The Big Ten has a core of 3 very good teams, and then there are 4 teams which teeter on the edge before you hit the bottom four which have truly been terrible this season. Everyone thought that the ACC would turn in the same mediocre league this year with the additions of Miami and Virginia Tech. Instead, the new additions have shocked everyone and Miami is actually riding its time on the bubble, sitting just out of many predictions for the NCAA tournament with just four weeks to play. The league from top to bottom is better than the Big Ten and with the addition of Boston College next season, the disparity could get even bigger.

So for all of you out there that wonder about the formula and my sanity, let's just wait a few more weeks. The good news for Illini fans is that I did predict that all teams would win a game before the last team lost a game. Well, Savannah State finished their season oh-fer, meaning that for my prediction to hold up, Illinois would need to run the table. Consider me on the band wagon.

The second week of the tournament predictions proved somewhat more difficult than the first though I was able to find some information which made the job a little bit easier. Oklahoma State is able to play in Oklahoma City as the Big XII is the official host at the site. This made the pod system a little easier to assemble this week. In addition, my placement of DePaul in the Chicago Region last week was not allowed as they are the host team. Someone should explain how they still are the host team when they play their home games at the Allstate Arena and the tournament is held at the United Center. The same goes for Davidson, who plays in a tiny gym in North Carolina while the tournament games will be held at the Charlotte Coliseum. Granted, fan base for these teams would be a lot greater than normal in these cities, but tell me that wouldn't be the same truth for Oklahoma City and the Cowboys or Chicago and Illinois.

Some thoughts and remember that there are still four weeks left:

• Only a few teams either gained or lost spots this week though some are definitely trending their way out of the tournament. Minnesota's two losses this week dropped them from a seven seed in the first week to an eight this week. While that seems like a small drop, it moved them closer to a large pack of teams closely ranked in the MRI. This could signal a big drop out of the dance is coming. At-large teams dropping out of the dance this week: Only New Mexico, who was replaced by Pacific from the Big West.


• Pacific, you shout? They are ranked in the Top 25 overall in the polls. How are they a bubble team? Through the magic of the rankings, the MRI still believes that Utah State is the best team in the conference. Pacific has won both regular season meetings between the two teams. There is a cliche that it is very difficult to beat the same team three times in one season. This myth was actually proven false by the folks at ESPN during the football playoffs this year. I would tend to believe the same would hold true for college basketball. The first two meetings were home and home and Utah State battled well on its home court. It remains to be seen what will happen when they potentially meet in the Big West finals, this year held in Anaheim, CA.


• The Missouri Valley conference fills out 4 dance cards again this week. With still plenty of basketball left, I am counting on at least two of these tickets falling to other conferences in the final weeks. SW Missouri State and Northern Iowa are barely clinging to their time on the bubble. All it will take is one impressive win by an ACC or Big East school to knock them out. If they do continue to hang on though, it won't be without precedent. Last season, Wichita State was able to be ranked in the final MRI tournament numbers and was left sitting at home. The Missouri Valley has definitely taken a step up in recent years to warrant a look for more than just 2 bids. This comes at the expense of the Atlantic 10, a once powerhouse conference who has lost its luster. The only hope for a second bid is if George Washington would lose in the conference tournament finals. Otherwise, it may only be the conference winner in the NCAA.


• There is hope for the A-10. Charlotte will move next year and join the conference, adding a team which can compete year in and year out. A couple of more wins on their resume and they are quickly closing on the Top 25 in the MRI. Look for Charlotte to make one of those Sweet Sixteen runs even when everyone else has counted them out.


• Boston University took care of business over the course of the week and took out Vermont. That was Vermont's first loss in the conference and it gives the Terriers the big win that they were looking for. It won't hurt their chances to make a big run and not lose until possibly the conference tournament championship game. Boston University is definitely deserving of the look.


• Just a reminder that the regions will be "seeded" at the beginning of the tournament. That means in my scenario that the regions meeting in the final four would be East vs. West, and Midwest vs. South. This leaves open the possibility that
  UNC and Illinois could meet in the final that everyone is looking for.


• I ran my simulation on the brackets as I produced them and once again chose 40 runs as a good representation for the run. The teams to make the final four the most often were the #1 seeds in each bracket. They were not without upsets. North Carolina had the easiest time by far in its bracket. It only missed the Final Four fifteen of the 40 times and those times were split among 6 other teams. This week their main competition was Michigan State who scored a 6. No bracket had 10 teams make the Final Four like last week. The South battled it out among 6 team with a fairly even distribution between Kansas, Louisville, Connecticut, and Florida. The best performance of a non #1 team was by Wake Forest this week. They won the simulation in their conference 11 times to Oklahoma State's 19.


• So who will win? I entered the Top 8 teams based on the 40 round sim that could possibly meet in the Regional Finals. I ran the simulation 50 more times and kept track of just the winners. And the answer: North Carolina. The Tar Heels triumphed 21 times to Illinois's 12, which shows that Illinois is gaining a little from last week on the Tar Heels. All of the eight teams won at least once and the winner of the East-West Final Four game won 29 times, meaning that the toughest test may come earlier in the tournament for those teams.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

February 7, 2005

Week 9 Commentary

It has been quite a couple of weeks since the MRI last graced the pages of Sitting Courtside. The one thing I can say is true is that no team is immune to a lapse right now. North Carolina has been beaten, not in the last two weeks, but they have been beaten. Illinois has had some scary moments when they have looked less than the #1 voted team in the land. In the land of the major conference teams, the bottom has consistently been knocking on the doors of the top teams and coming hard at them, winning some, losing some, but playing hard and upsets are bound to happen.

All this means that we are most likely in for one of the best tournaments in the last few years. With all the teams very close, it will become harder and harder to predict the outcome of all, let alone half, of the tournament games.

However, this week, I endeavor on my task as I do each year and attempt to pick the field of 65. This year, it will look a little different. I did not go straight down the numbers this week, but rather attempted to place the one-bid conference winners a little more strategically. I still placed all at-large winners based on the numbers, but some highly ranked conference leaders were placed lower in the bracket than they would have been when I did this in the past.

And what was I left with are the projections for the first week. It may look like some teams are getting a real big benefit but that is how the numbers stack up at this point. Right now, there are a lot of teams looking in from the outside and they are all just one big win away from getting over the hump and in.

Some thoughts:

• The tough Missouri Valley conference really hasn't gotten the attention that it has in the past few years. Based on the numbers, a whopping four teams would make the tournament field this week, edging out some conference leaders (by record) such as Pacific. I have no beliefs that all four teams will make it in but the Missouri Valley has played well enough as a conference within season and out to have consideration for more than one team in the tournament. It will be a big test to see if they can get three.


• Boston University benefits from the strength of a team like Vermont. It is conceivable that Vermont has played impressively enough that they would be considered for an at-large bid should they lose in the conference tournament. The team that is most likely to pick them off would be Boston University. BU is still playing well on its own and could warrant some consideration from the committee. They need to keep winning though. Their losses have come against some good teams, including a strong Holy Cross team which is looking to make history and warrant consideration for a Patriot league team to win an at-large bid if an upset occurs. Their other losses have been Boston College (undefeated), Massachusetts (upset city), Vermont (conference leader), and an up and coming Northeastern team. The Terriers can definitely do themselves some good with a win against Vermont later this week when they get the Catamounts at home.


• I seem to do this every year. Somehow, I stick Texas Tech and Bobby Knight somewhere where he is going to be at a distinct disadvantage. Some years, they were set to face Indiana in the tournament. Other years, like this one, I have Texas Tech placed to go to Indianapolis for their first round game. Don't get me wrong. There are still people in Indiana that love Bobby Knight. Still, it is difficult to go home again and chances are that if Knight's team plays like it did against Iowa on the road, they are in for a long day that first round against Vandy.


• Just a reminder that the regions will be "seeded" at the beginning of the tournament. That means in my scenario that the regions meeting in the final four would be East vs. West (Potential Duke v. North Carolina Round 4), and Midwest vs. South. This leaves open the possibility that UNC and Illinois could meet in the final that everyone is looking for. It also means that Louisville has the chance to sneak up on everyone and pull a big shocker should they get that far.


• I ran my simulation on the brackets as I produced them. I figured that 40 times would give me a good representation, at least for the first run. The teams to make the final four the most often were the #1 seeds in each bracket. They were not without upsets. North Carolina had the easiest time by far in its bracket. It only missed the Final Four fifteen of the 40 times and those times were split among 5 other teams. That said, the biggest competition then for the Tar Heels were Kansas (5) and Florida (6). Meanwhile, in the South, 10 teams were listed on the Final Four line in the simulation. Louisville was the team only 15 times and met stiff competition from Arizona and Kentucky. Before you rule out a Cinderella, Vermont was able to make the last line in the region twice. The best performance of a non #1 team was by Washington. They won the simulation in their conference 11 times to Duke's 17.


• So who will win? I entered the Top 8 teams based on the 40 round sim that could possibly meet in the Regional Finals (For example, Arizona had 7 wins, but will meet Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen and so was not in the final sim). I ran the simulation 50 more times and kept track of just the winners. And the answer: North Carolina. The Tar Heels triumphed 23 times to Illinois's 11. All of the eight teams won at least once and the winner of the East-West Final Four game won 33 times, meaning that the toughest test may come earlier in the tournament for those teams.

Keep on reading and watching. If you want to complain, just drop a comment or an email to bmiraski at mrisports dot com.

Posted by bmiraski at 10:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

January 24, 2005

Week 7 Commentary

Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, I have been missing lately. No games to watch, no musings. Not that those things haven't gone on. I just haven't had the chance to write about them.

Well, all that is changed. I am back with a vengeance, and the first thing I have for you in my triumphant return is the review of Week 7.

• Kansas lost to Villanova by a huge margin. I am first shocked that Kansas was playing at full strength. If they were going to lose, you would have thought it would have come when Wayne Simien was out hurt. If it didn't come then, you might have expected that when Keith Langford was hurt with a concussion. Yet, none of these things happened. In fact, they looked better playing without Simien than they have since he has returned. The MRI almost foreshadowed the downfall, consistently marking Kansas down, though in the past two weeks, they had begun to make a run for the top. This week changed that with the big loss. At the same time, you have to admire the play of Villanova this year. They handed West Virginia their first loss of the season by a big margin. This sent the Mountaineers into a downward spiral that included a loss to three win Marshall and they have yet to recover. The Wildcats then lost three of four, which almost made the win streak they were having look like a fluke. In those losses, though, they were in every game. Notre Dame is definitely still a contender, despite the last second loss to Georgetown on Saturday. Boston College is undefeated and Nova came close to upsetting them also. Georgetown turned the tables from the 1985 championship loss and won by the same score as the famous Cinderella game. And now, Nova bounces back with a huge win against a Kansas team which has been in everyone's Final Four. Villanova deserves a great deal of credit for hanging in the tough games this season. If they can add two more big victories to their plate and continue this play, they may well return to the dance.
• While the Big East is all bunched up, they may want to look down the East Coast to the ACC to get a glimpse of what life will be like next year. When the Big East expands, adding Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Marquette, and Depaul, they will become the new basketball powerhouse in America. Sure, they will lose a Boston College team, which over the past few years has been as good or better than both Connecticut and Syracuse. In return, they are adding some of the top teams, and most overlooked teams, in the country. Just look at where Cincinnati and Louisville are in the MRI, both in the Top 15. DePaul is now consistently putting together tournament caliber ball clubs, and Marquette is finding ways to win, even without the talent they once had. Add in that teams like Villanova and Georgetown will get older and even better and scrappier than this year's version and you are looking at a conference which will field at least 8 teams which can compete for the championship. They best watch that ACC though. Virginia Tech and Miami, both picked to finish at the bottom of the standings, are hanging in every game. They are getting wins and finding ways to make the ACC conference appear that every team could be 8-8 at the end. The teams at the top beat each other up, and the teams at the bottom are picking off what they can. No one is safe in the ACC this season, and no one will be safe in the Big East or ACC next year.
• When Illinois takes to the floor tomorrow to face Wisconsin, they will be looking to end the longest home winning streak in the country. Ohio State couldn't do it. They were plagued by cold shooting all game. Michigan State almost did it. Somehow, they thought the game ended about four minutes earlier than it actually did and they gave up the big lead at the end. Now Illinois gets its chance. Don't expect it to be easy, but they may have the best shot so far to do it. The real question will be if some combination of James Augustine and Nick Smith can contain Mike Wilkinson inside while Illinois's guards chip away at the Badgers from the outside. One of the biggest keys may be getting the Wisconsin big man out of the game and hoping that the Wisconsin shooting can't compete with the tough Illini defense. Illinois will need to hope that Badger leading scorer Alando Tucker doesn't return to the form he was displaying before he went down with the injury that kept him out of the Ohio State game. He hasn't been the same since his return and a big game against the #1 team in the country may be just what he needs. Right now, give the Illini a 67.37% chance of staying undefeated and ending the Wisconsin hold on their home court.
• I have already mentioned how Cincinnati and Louisville will take their Conference USA dominance to the Big East next season. Left behind in all the movement is a very good Charlotte team. With each game, the 49ers continue to make their case for a tournament berth by adding wins to their resume. Earlier this week, they were soundly defeated by Cincinnati, but this can be forgiven. On Saturday, they bounced back to win against a ranked Marquette team, who continues to win without the talent of previous seasons. In that win, Charlotte looked nothing like the team that was embarrassed earlier in the week. The loss to Cincinnati ended a nine game win streak which stretched back to their last loss, a one point, three overtime thriller against Alabama. Charlotte has what should be two easy games against TCU and East Carolina before they get a chance at revenge on the Bearcats, this time at home. A win against Cincinnati in the rematch should secure a dance ticket for Charlotte. The rest of their season is such that they only have two potential losses after the Cincinnati game, those coming against DePaul and Louisville. Look for the 49ers to cause some havoc in the conference tournament and then in the big dance that follows.
• Whether Mike Davis gets to keep his job at Indiana beyond this season may depend on the performance of his team over the next two weeks. While the Hoosiers have tuned up against the bottom of the Big Ten, they now face their toughest challenges. This week, they take their show on the road. The first stop is against a surprisingly good Minnesota team which is looking for their first chance at the dance since an academic scandal ended what looked like a return to glory for the Gophers. After that, a trip down the road to Iowa greets them to face a Hawkeye team which almost dethroned Illinois. They get to return home to face Penn State the next week before traveling to Champaign and taking on Illinois. It is not hard to believe that Indiana could go 1-3 through this four game swing. If they can somehow change that into a 3-1 record, Davis might be safe, provided he can at least get Indiana into the NIT. Should anything worse than that find its way into their record books, Mike Davis better start looking for a home buyer in Bloomington.

In other news, I am hard at work on a new look for the site which will allow you to get all of Sitting Courtside, On The Field, and the MRI rankings at one site. Stay tuned, I promise it will be worth it.

Posted by bmiraski at 11:07 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

January 12, 2005

Wilkinson Badgers Buckeyes

When you win 36 games in a row and 51 out of 53, you have to have some breaks go your way. When Wisconsin took to the floor on Tuesday night, they were hoping for just that. Earlier in the day, it was decided that leading scorer and second leading rebounder Alando Tucker would be sitting out the game against Ohio State after an ankle and foot injury he suffered on Sunday during practice. Without Tucker, they were losing almost a quarter of their offense.

Instead of Alando Tucker, the Badgers had Mike Wilkinson. Wilkinson was the second leading scorer for the team going into the game and left it after scoring 29, a new career high. Wilkinson was repeatedly fed the ball inside and was very effective thanks to the foul trouble by Ohio State's Terence Dials. With Dials on the bench, Matt Marinchick was unable to contain the faster and more aggressive Wilkinson.

Wilkinson added 10 rebounds to his total but by far, the most important board of the game was grabbed by Clayton Hanson with less than a minute remaining in the ball game. On Wisconsin's previous possession, Zach Morley drew a foul, but missed both shots from the free throw line. On the second shot, Hanson grabbed the rebound as Wilkinson blocked out the bigger Dials. Hanson was fouled and went to the line where he hit both shots. The next possession for Ohio State resulted in a turnover as Brandon Fuss-Cheatham threw the ball over the head of the running Dials. Wisconsin made 5 more free throws in the last thirty seconds while Ohio State was only able to counter with one basket of its own.

Despite leading for most of the first half, Ohio State was consistently cold shooting the basketball, especially from three point range. The Buckeyes started the game 2 for 10 from the arc and finished 7 for 23. Tony Stockman, who hit 5 of 7 from three in the Ohio State win against Iowa was especially off from long range and the rest of the floor. He finished 4 for 17 shooting including only 1 of 9 from long distance. Bo Ryan commented after the game that "it was a combination of both" Ohio State missing the open shots they were given and good pressure by the Badger defense.

Still, the best thing that Wisconsin did all night was to take Dials out of the game. He still managed 15 points and 8 rebounds, but it came in only 24 minutes as he repeatedly had to go to the bench, including the last six minutes of the first half when Wisconsin was able to grab the lead from Ohio State and extend it to 5 by the break. Dials picked up his third foul a little over a minute into the second half and was a non-factor on defense especially after he received his next one just 3 minutes later. Without Dials, and given the poor shooting of the Buckeyes, they continued to fall behind. When the shots finally did fall, they were down by 11 and Wisconsin was able to keep ahead just enough to outlast them. J.J. Sullinger and
Matt Sylvester were big in the run that Ohio State tried to make, but it was just not enough.

Not everything Wisconsin did worked. When Wilkinson went out of the game, he was replaced by red shirt freshman Brian Butch. Butch had sat out last season to get stronger and was effective in keeping the Buckeyes in check at the defensive end. Where he still needs to work is in his shot selection. He took two three point shots late in the first half while Dials was sitting on the bench. This was the time when he should have been getting the ball down low as he had the advantage over the Ohio State players. You can be sure that Ryan reminded him of this during a time out after the second shot refused to fall.

With the win, Wisconsin extended its home winning streak to 37 games. Asked about the streak after the game, Ryan was nostalgic for a bit, referring to streaks he had while at Wisconsin-Platteville earlier in his career. Still, Ryan was all business. "I really haven't talked about [the streak]," said Ryan. "This right here, when you have a team coming in the next night...that's all we concentrate on." Ryan will need to have the team concentrating. Their next game is Sunday against Michigan State, who will try and counter Wilkinson with Paul Davis. Wisconsin will be looking to extend the winning streak to an NCAA-leading 38.

Ohio State's next game is a non-conference match against 6-5 LSU.

Posted by bmiraski at 11:21 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 24, 2004

You Have Learned Well Grasshopper

Tuesday night was the fourth meeting between Bobby Knight and Steve Alford on the basketball court, and the first triumph for the Alford led team. The Iowa Hawkeyes soundly beat Texas Tech 83-53 at the United Center in Chicago to continue their season with only a single blemish coming against North Carolina. Earlier in the year, I commented on how Alford needed this season to be fantastic if he hoped to continue holding onto his job at Iowa. If Tuesday night was any indication of how Iowa will play in the Big Ten, then Alford's team will not only see the NCAA tournament, they will be in the Sweet 16, and Alford will keep his job.

Apparently Alford learned something from Bobby Knight along the way when he was at Indiana. Iowa plays almost the exact same offense that Texas Tech does and many of the principles that Alford uses in his coaching style come from Knight. When it came down to it on Tuesday, Iowa was just better at executing at both ends of the floor.

While Pierre Pierce again had a solid game for the Hawkeyes, he was not the driving force in the win. Without looking around the net, I am sure that 6'11" center Erik Hansen was given big credit for the victory and deservedly so.

Hansen had 6 blocks in the game, and he probably got his hand on at least 5 other shots without getting credit for the deflection. He added 9 points mostly coming in the second half when Iowa was safely in the lead. His biggest contribution on the offensive end was 6 offensive rebounds which let Iowa keep possession of the ball for multiple shot attempts. Obviously, because of the big presence inside, which Texas Tech had no answer for, Hansen was dominant at the defensive end. Together with Greg Brunner, they clogged up the lane using a combination of a strong 2-3 zone and man to man defense. The 2-3 zone was killer for Texas Tech in the first half. They had no way to get the ball inside and time after time down the floor they would be forced to pass around the outside and attempt to stay clear of the big men. This caused an abnormal amount of turnovers for the Red Raider team, many of them coming on traveling calls as Texas Tech players tried to get separation from the tough defense. They ended the first half with 16 turnovers which led to 12 Iowa points and a very red faced head coach.

If you want the driving force on offense, it wasn't Mr. Pierce either. That would be Adam Haluska. Haluska started the offense for the Hawkeyes by grabbing their first 8 points of the game and jetting them to a 10-3 lead on Texas Tech. The first six minutes of the game totally belonged to him. He was able to get free when Pierce was well covered and either dish the ball away or score. Had Haluska not picked up his second foul about nine minutes into the game, Iowa would have put the game away in the first half. It was obvious that the offense just ran slower without him on the floor. Pierce was their sole focus and Texas Tech was able to concentrate on him. It wasn't that there weren't other options on offense. Jeff Horner had some nice drives from the baseline but was terrible shooting from elsewhere on the floor. Brunner also contributed when he could. By far though, Haluska drove the offense and shot 7 for 9 including 3 for 3 beyond the arc. Add in four free throws and he had himself a 21 point night.

My player to watch for future games is Alex Thompson. Thompson came into the game with 7:40 to play in the first half to rebound off some Texas Tech free throws. Thompson looked a little rough around the edges, but that can be expected for a freshman. At 6'9", he will be a force to come for the Hawkeyes inside and if he is ever on the court at the same time as Hansen, opposing teams better hope they have some three point shooters. Thompson needs some work on his passing which was not as crisp as you would want from the big man as he feeds it back outside to the shooters. He did have a nice look boarding the ball and reigned in 5 over his 11 minutes. Coming out of Ames, Iowa, it is amazing that Iowa State didn't get this guy. If Tim Floyd or Larry Eustachy were still the coach for the Cyclones, you know that Thompson would have been wearing red this season and maybe Haluska might not be on the Iowa team.

Sure it is only one game, but this is one game that Texas Tech will want to forget. Despite playing well for most of the game on the defensive end, being competent at keeping Iowa on the outside and shooting from long distance, they did not have the same success at the offensive end. Freshman guard Martin Zeno looked like a freshman on the floor. He had 4 turnovers and only two assists. He constantly was forcing the ball inside and then would get beat back on defense. At the same time, Jarrius Jackson was the only offensive option on the floor for the Red Raiders who could accomplish anything. By the second timeout of the game, it was clear that if he didn't touch the ball, the Texas Tech team was not going to score. It took them 9 minutes to finally get a man solidly in the lane, and he was called for a three second violation.

The highlights for the Red Raiders were few. Devonne Giles outbattled 3 Iowa players to get an offensive rebound at one point. There were times when Ronald Ross's defense was enough to frustrate the taller and faster Pierce. Zeno did throw some nice feeder passes. Jackson did manage a great drive through the middle of the lane to the hoop, but it came in the final minutes when most of Iowa's main players were already on the bench watching the walk ons play. Bobby Knight has a lot of work to do before Wednesday night's game against Georgia State. Maybe he can call Steve Alford and get some tips on running his offense.

Posted by bmiraski at 12:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 23, 2004

Omission Mission

Oops. Leave it to me to forget the one thing I wrote in my notebook last night. Shavlik Randolph, one of the few Duke big men, is out indefinitely with mono. This can not be a good sign for the Blue Devils. While Randolph has not been as effective as Sheldon Williams this season in Duke's games, he was still another inside presence. Without him, Duke is very small. They will have to rely on freshman David McClure who was not the freshman that impressed me so far this season. The shooting of JJ Redick and Daniel Ewing will now be key for Duke if they want to continue winning this season. When the shots stop falling, you will have to wonder what Duke will be able to do. Look for them to lose a few games that they should have won, and would have won with Randolph. The first real test will be NC State on January 13th, but they should not overlook Temple on the 8th. John Chaney may have a way to take down the Blue Devil machine.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 20, 2004

Week 3: Pride of the Illini

Illinois managed to move into the #1 spot this week in the rankings after just missing edging Georgia Tech last week. A big win over Valparaiso on Sunday combined with Gonzaga beating the Yellow Jackets set the Illini firmly on top of the standings. Clemson and Florida join the Top 25 this week, and Texas moved into the Top 10 despite a loss to Wake Forest. Dropping out were Marquette who lost to Arizona, and Wichita State, who is still undefeated. The Shockers played a close game with Tulsa and came out with the win, but it was not enough to keep them in the blue numbers of the Top 25.

I was away from sports for the weekend, so this edition of the MRI will just be my...

Quick Hits:

• Joining Texas in the Top 10 is Ohio State, who had a big win for the program by defeating Texas Tech on Thursday last week. Thad Matta has the Buckeyes playing well in non-conference. They haven't had the marquis win yet, but Texas Tech is still a pretty good team to beat to prove you can compete. Ohio State may shock some teams in the Big Ten season and have the authorities at the school wishing they hadn't pulled the team out of tournament possibilities this season.
• Rick Majerus chose to return to ESPN and not take the coaching job at USC on Saturday. This was the same guy who a couple of days earlier was saying he would ride the horse into the football stadium if they needed him to. I don't know why Majerus will be leaving USC, and no one may ever know the true reason but Majerus himself. Rumors have hinted it was a disagreement with current interim coach Jim Saia, that Majerus's health isn't what it should be for him to be coaching, and that Majerus was unhappy with the amount of work that would be needed to get the team to where he thinks it should be. Either way, USC's loss is ESPN's gain. I will continue to enjoy Majerus's broadcasts of college basketball. As I have said before, he is one of the best analysis guys you could have on the microphone but I will always wonder about his decision, just as I to this day wonder about Dan Marino leaving the Dolphins three weeks into his office job.
• As mentioned before, Gonzaga beat Georgia Tech to knock the Yellow Jackets from the #1 spot in the MRI. That leaves Gonzaga with only one loss, that being to Illinois, a team which has proven itself to be better than every opponent by a big margin. Now that Gonzaga has its own marquis wins against Georgia Tech and Washington, it begs the question of who they would have to lose to no longer continue this run as the best team not from a major conference. First, they lost their head coach, Dan Monson, to Minnesota a few years ago. Player after player have left, from Casey Calvary and Dan Dickau to Blake Stepp and Cory Violette. Still, the Zags returned a good core of players including Ronny Turiaf, who is one of my favorite big men in basketball. Give Mark Few credit for the work he has been able to do the last 5 years since Monson left in keeping the team on top.
• Perhaps that game against Indiana on Louisville's floor did help Kentucky this weekend. The Wildcats were able to come back from 16 down at halftime to beat Rick Pitino and the Cardinals. This was only the second loss for Pitino when facing one of his old assistants or players, both to Tubby Smith. The Wildcats got a great game from Kentucky native Patrick Sparks, who transfered from Western Kentucky this season. Sparks had 25 points including the three crucial free throws with less than a second remaining when he was fouled on an attempt as the clock wound down.

Enjoy this next week with expanded coverage.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 16, 2004

For the Basketball Fan Who Has Everything

It's December 16th. There are, counting today, only 9 shopping days until Christmas. I know you are all done with your shopping like good Santa's helpers. If you have been a bad elf this year, it is time to get cracking.

Kyle Whelliston, who runs a very detailed blog called the Mid-Majority, and is also on a quest to attend 100 College Basketball games this season, offers up a few suggestions.

Personally, I am partial to the stuffed Big Red.

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Batman vs. Two-Face

Last year, Depaul made the NCAA tournament and defeated Dayton in the first round before being run over by eventual champion Connecticut to the tune of a 27 point loss. The MRI didn't think that Depaul deserved to go to the tournament despite tying for the Conference USA title. Thanks to the tournament committee, Depaul got a friendly match-up against Dayton, another team the MRI didn't think deserved to be there. Anyone who watched the game between those two could see that neither team displayed the type of play that proved they should be there.

This year's Depaul season is beginning to look a lot like last year. A team with a good deal of talent, but when they show up for games, they act like Two Face from the old Batman comics. The good side came out against Notre Dame on Saturday, leading them to a great win on the road. The bad side came out against Northern Illinois and Bradley, two games that Depaul should have won but didn't. The real question going into last night's game at Northwestern was which side of Two Face's coin would show at the opening tip.

Bill Carmody, the Northwestern coach and last year's Big Ten coach of the year, had the perfect item on his Utility Belt to counter the Two Face Depaul, the Princeton game. Before coming to Northwestern 4 years ago, Carmody was either an assistant or head coach at Princeton for 18 years. During that time, he studied and implemented Princeton's patented slow down game. Last night, Northwestern was able to execute to perfection, leaving the final score of the game in the low 50s and frustrating the talented Blue Demons.

Time after time down the court, Depaul struggled to get any rhythm on offense. Several times, drives by Sammy Mejia and Drake Diener were stalled. Depaul was forced to live off of 12 foot jumpers just outside the lane and when they stopped falling in the second half, that was all that Northwestern needed to take the lead, and the win. Diener was also not on with his game last night. After scoring 19 on a 7 of 10 shooting performance, including 3 for 5 from beyond the arc, against Notre Dame, he went cold coming back to Chicago. He could manage only 2 points against the Wildcats. Quemont Greer was the lone bright spot for the Blue Demons, but success with getting the ball inside to him stalled out in the latter part of the game when Northwestern was able to clog the lane and not give him the open look. Greer had one run midway through the second half but stalled out with 20 points and didn't score in the final 8:30.

Northwestern was helped by 6'10" Duke transfer Michael Thompson, appearing in his first game for the Wildcats. The offense ran through him on Wednesday night, leading to a 12 point and 5 rebound performance by the McDonald's All-American. Depaul tried to double Thompson with some success. After the game, Thompson was surprised by the tactic. "I definitely did not expect that my first game back. I didn't think they knew," Thompson said. "They were getting frustrated, though, because if anyone doubles down, Vedran or somebody out top makes them pay for it." Vedran is Vedran Vukusic, who had 4 points in the final 90 seconds to help seal the win and 17 overall. Vukusic and Thompson led the slow deliberate drive to the finish for Northwestern.

Depaul coach Bill Leitao will have a big job over the next few days before the Blue Demons take on the UIC Flames on Saturday at home. "I don't forget about any game, everything has to be analyzed," said Leitao after the loss. We will see Saturday if he found a way to get the good side of the coin to come down for his Two Face team.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:58 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack

December 15, 2004

Leather and Swift Strike Again

Just in case you thought I missed it last night, Terrence Leather again displayed his shooting skill in South Florida's game against South Carolina. Leather shot 10 for 13 from the floor and scored 24 points for the Bulls in the 72-70 loss. Combined with Brain Swift's 13, together they again generated over half of the South Florida offense. They came very close to getting the win but two shots by Swift in the final moments of the game refused to fall for the Bulls. Leather is quickly making a case for All-Conference honors in a league dominated by great guard play (Think Louisville and Depaul). It is a shame he won't be around one more year to help the Bulls inside against a much bigger and tougher Big East next season.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Welcome to my Home

There are several givens in life. We all die. Most of us pay taxes. 16 seeds don't win the first round games in the NCAA tournament. Duke doesn't lose at home against non-conference opponents. Read that last one again. Duke doesn't lose at home against non-conference opponents. Since Mike Krzyzewski took over the program, they are 176-8 against non-conference teams playing at Cameron Indoor Stadium, including 160 of the last 163.

Tuesday night, the latest team to test the Blue Devils at home was Illinois-Chicago. They should have suspected they were in for a long night when the security guard who let them into the visiting team door closed it behind them, locked it, and then walked away with a cackle only heard in horror movies. Still, they took the floor, took their licks, and went out with their head held high.

Watching the first 10 minutes of the game, you wouldn't have expected the final score to be as lopsided as it was. The Flames were able to run with Duke up and down the floor, preventing the Blue Devils from breaking out on more than one transition basket in the first half. Duke struggled to get the ball inside enough to Shelden Williams, and when they did, he was either fouled before the shot or had to pass it back out. UIC was shooting the ball well, and Duke was able to answer with some 3 point shots, but never enough to pull away. Most trips down the court, Duke was only able to manage one shot and a lack of rebounding was hurting them on the scoreboard.

All that changed with a little less than 9 minutes remaining in the half. At that point, Daniel Ewing stole the ball and ran down the court, passing the ball up in the air to himself before dunking it down. Normally you would count on this to start one of the patented Duke runs. Down by six before that basket, they needed a spark to help them get over whatever was plaguing them in the first few minutes. The run came, but not how you would expect. While causing UIC to turn the ball over 5 times in the next three minutes, Duke gave it back three times. They were only able to string 9 points together before the Flames' Jovan Stefanov ended the run with a great inside basket and hit the foul shot to keep the game tied at 25.

By far, the biggest lapse of the first half for the UIC defense happened with just over 4 minutes remaining. Lee Melchionni hit two three point basket within one minute and both times, the UIC defense backed off him. Yes, Melchionni is a forward, and normally forwards don't shoot three pointers. However, any scout for UIC would have told them that last year he shot 36%, which while not the tops on the team, was still pretty good. This season, so far, he had been better, shooting 36.8% on 7-19 shooting. Why then would the UIC players consistently back off of Melchionni as he caught the ball beyond the 3 point arc and assume he would miss? All combined, it served to give Duke a seven point lead at the half.

From my standpoint, the first half MVP was Ewing. He may not have led the team in scoring. He may have been only 3 for 9 from the floor. However, he was the catalyst for everything that Duke did in the final ten minutes of the half. Over the course of the game, Ewing added 5 steals to an already gaudy 18 from the first six games. He also tacked on 5 assists to go with a number of lane driving baskets which helped to spark the offense.

UIC's one bright spot from the first half was Stefanov who scored 15 of their 31 points. As their only offense, he helped to keep the game close. This could be the main reason why in the second half, they lost touch with the Duke team. Stefanov didn't score for the rest of the game and Cedrick Banks, the all-time leading scorer at UIC, wasn't able to even match Stefanov's 15 points from the first half, finishing with 12 points, 7 of which were scored in the first 6 minutes of the game.

Duke just poured it on during the second half, and Williams emerged as the star of the second half. It almost seemed that Ewing tagged him at half time and said, "You are IT!" Williams began the second half with an 8-0 run of his own helping Duke to a 21-0 run over seven minutes spanning the first and second half. UIC was finally able to get on the board with an inside shot by Elliott Poole but by that point, Duke was up for good.

UIC did a nice job of keeping the intensity level up throughout the game despite the score, but it was just too much to overcome. Even though they were overmatched in this game, they still have what it takes to make a run in the Horizon league and take on Wisconsin-Milwaukee for the conference title.

On Duke's side, they had a number of bright spots in the game. Once again, their three point shooting was right on throughout and they finished 9-23 from beyond the arc. They were able to more consistently take the ball inside to Williams and Ewing is starting to resemble a real point guard, creating offense both with the pass and on his own, driving the basket. They had a nice solid contribution from Freshman DeMarcus Nelson who played 22 minutes and scored 9. Nelson was the all-time leading scorer in high school in the state of California, so he can only improve what is already a great shooting team. Last, their pressure defense was enough to wear down a UIC team that normally holds onto the ball very well. They caused 23 turnovers, almost double what UIC was averaging going into the game. The defense also set a Duke record for blocked shots in a game with 18, seven of them by Williams. Overall, a very solid performance by the Blue Devils. They will need to improve on the way they begin games because they will not be able to spot ACC opponents a good lead like they have in their last two games against Toledo and UIC. Other than that, very solid overall.

It may not be as flashy as it once was, but it got the job done. And it continued what is now a common theme in life: Duke does not lose against non-conference foes at home.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 13, 2004

Week 2: The Cream Rises to the Top

The top teams in the league were able to pull themselves to the top of the ratings this week in the MRI. Illinois made a big jump with an impressive win over Oregon. This should quiet those who felt that last week's rating was too low for them. However, Illinois does not lead. That honor goes to the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech this week. Many believe that this team is playing better than they were at the end of last season when they went to the championship game.

With 18 teams still without a loss, and 24 teams still without a Division 1 victory, a lot could change on a daily basis in the ratings. A loss or win by any of these 42 teams could change a number of teams' standings. Look for changes to be small over the next few weeks as a number of teams have finals and will not play as often as you would expect. This could lead to many changes in the rankings for those teams who have played a great deal to this point to get in the games they can before taking a break.

Quick Hits:

• Kentucky's game against Indiana took place on Louisville's home floor. This may be Kentucky's way of trying to gain an advantage when they take on the Cardinals on December 18th. Seeing the highlights from the Kentucky-Indiana game, is there a more good looking super-tall man than Sophomore Shagari Alleyne. Alleyne doesn't even need to jump more than 2 inches off the floor to dunk the ball, and he put some powerful baskets home on Saturday. He will be one to watch in SEC play to see if he can keep his power a force inside against opponents with imposing centers of their own.


• Congratulations to both Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski and Arizona Coach Lute Olson. Coach K reached 700 Division 1 coaching wins on Sunday with a win over MAC conference opponent Toledo, becoming the second youngest to reach the mark. The only one to reach it faster was Krzyzewski's old West Point coach, Robert Montgomery Knight. While this milestone number didn't come in a game with as much meaning as wins #500 (against UNC) and #600 (ACC tournament), it was still an impressive plateau to reach. All that makes Coach Olson's achievement even more amazing. Olson reached 1000 victories at any level with his team's win over Utah on Saturday. Olson's career started at a small high school in Minnesota and has taken him to the big time of the National Championship. Congrats again to both coaches. Not only are they great role models for their players on the court, but also off the court in the way that they run their programs. With all the bad news that goes on in college athletics, think about how you have never heard these two coaches' names associated with it. These guys win the right way, with class making their achievement of these numbers a great thing for college sports.


• The best game I didn't watch this weekend was Utah-Arizona. Utah led the entire way until the last two minutes of the game. As I said, this ended up being Olson's 1000th win which would have been interesting to see. The game was on FOX Sports Net. It is a good thing I didn't know or I would have had three games to flip between early in the day.


• They say you can't go home again. Someone should tell that to Iowa guard Adam Haluska who faced his old team Iowa State on Friday night. Haluska transfered last season after starting for Iowa State as a freshman in 2002-3. He led the Hawkeyes with 20 points and shot 50% from 3 point range to help lead his team to a hard fought victory, 70-63 over the Cyclones. These are the victories that Steve Alford is going to need to get his team where everyone is expecting this season.


• I was going to write something about the UMass player who hit the go ahead basket against Connecticut and then practically ran into the stands with 4 seconds still remaining in the game. However, the subject has been run into the ground this week by the rest of the media, so I will let it go. I just wish that someone on UConn had been able to hit that final three for the win.


• The MRI predicted 178 of 240 games this week for a percentage of 74.17%. It correctly predicted the winner of both games I discussed earlier in the week when responding to the question about George Washington, who incidentally moved into the Top 25 this week at #25. If the MRI can keep up this performance level all season, it will surpass last year's numbers which finished at 72.57%.

Enjoy this week's ratings and mail me if you want to argue.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Saturday Afternoon: Lounging with the Big Ten

Saturday afternoon, two college teams invaded the home stadiums of their closest NBA franchises. One drew a crowd which hadn't packed the stadium since the glory days of the franchise during the mid-90s. For their game, they put on a show belonging in the NBA, with high flying dunks and crisp play. The other team played a tough inside game reminiscent of older teams which used to play in the arena, all the while wearing flashy silver uniforms which seemed to belong in the NBA.

The two teams are Illinois and Michigan State, the consensus #1 and #2 teams in the Big Ten. Unfortunately for Michigan State, there is a wide gulf separating the two which was definitely apparent on court this weekend.

Illinois walked into the United Center in Chicago on Saturday, and played like they belonged in the arena all the time. The senior heavy team has finally adapted to coach Bruce Weber's motion offense and it has given them a spark over their opponents not seen since the Final Four team of 1989. In evidence on Saturday afternoon was also the strength of the defense. Illinois was consistently able to cause turnovers which led to some highlight filled transition baskets causing the crowd, very much clad in orange all around, to go crazy. The main man leading all of this pressure on defense was Dee Brown, whose play has improved by leaps and bounds since last year. Several times he created steals which he was able to push up the floor and create with. The most punishing of these happened with less than a minute to go in the first half. Brown stole the ball with a great play and dished a fabulous alley-oop pass to Luther Head who finished the play. With this, the Illini crowd went nuts and didn't stop screaming until the start of the second half.

Overall, Illinois was impressive. I was most intrigued by the play of James Augustine at center. He has definitely matured since last season. His play is more crisp and he is making more confident passes to his teammates. This has helped him to be more aggressive inside with his shooting and become a real force on defense. His improvement is much needed as I am still not sold on Senior Nick Smith. Smith has displayed that he still doesn't get it. Maybe he was too much of Bill Self's type of player but his attitude just doesn't seem to fit with the rest of his team. This was in evidence on Saturday when, with the game well at hand, Smith was called for a silly foul and in disgust whipped the ball down the court. This led to a technical foul and the immediate benching of Smith. In a closer game, displays like this could cost Illinois and therefore Smith will be one that needs to be watched closely by the coaching staff.

It wasn't all Illinois on Saturday, but at times it seemed that way. One bright spot for Oregon was freshman Malik Hairston. Hairston hails from Detroit and all of the schools in the state of Michigan should be ashamed of themselves for not being able to keep this talent at home. No, he wasn't Mr. Basketball in the state, but he sure seems a lot more poised at his young age that Drew Neitzel has for Michigan State. Hairston showed amazing court vision, shooting, and speed, against the Illini. This was even more impressive when you consider that he was doing it against a very mature and experienced Illinois team. According to Hairston's father, Ernie Kent was able to impress Malik and his mother enough to make him choose Oregon. Tom Izzo and Tommy Amaker could only wish they had made such a good impression.

Izzo's team was the other Big Ten team in action on Saturday at it's nearest NBA home. Sporting a strange set of silver uniforms and cheered on by the "Green Man Group", Michigan State showed off its inside strength against Stanford, a team which has been lacking on the boards this year. The first half was very much in Michigan State's favor as they fed the ball inside to Paul Davis, something that worked very well for them against Duke in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. They went into half time leading by 9, both on the scoreboard and the backboards.

The second half was more of the same though Michigan State started to improve in other aspects of its offensive game. Shannon Brown stepped up with a great drive through the lane six minutes into the half, finishing with a powerful dunk. Two minutes later he followed with another dunk after a baseline drive. Stanford was able to break up an alley-oop attempt by the Spartans soon after, but a rebound and great feeder pass inside to Davis led to him drawing a foul and making the free throws. The varied offensive attack will only help Michigan State getting into conference play as they will not be able to rely on Davis and only Davis all game. At this point, Ager and Brown are the two best candidates to step up and contribute on the offensive end.

Stanford did have some highlights in the game and there is some there for Trent Johnson to work with, especially with another down year in the PAC-10. Stanford was able to get the ball inside a few times against the Spartans and this led to some nice baskets for the Cardinal. Unfortunately, Stanford was not always that patient on offense and this held them back, leading to turnovers and missed rebounding opportunities.

One last note on Neitzel. With a little over four minutes remaining the game and the Spartans leading by 16, Drew Naymick made a great block at the defensive end. Neitzel ended up with the ball in his hands and tried to make a fancy alley-oop play which was broken up easily by the Stanford defense. His better play would have been to bring the ball back outside and slow it down, drawing time off the clock, and looking for the inside pass for an easier basket. As a freshman, this mistake is understandable, but with someone who will be looked upon to provide a lot of early leadership on this team, it was the wrong choice. Izzo told him as much 20 seconds later when he took him out of the game, but did it by teaching, not yelling, something that will only help Neitzel as this season moves on.

Michigan State outrebounded Stanford 28-24, something that was going to be key for them going into the game. Improved shooting helped them to the 25 point win which was definitely missing in their game against Duke where they were definitely outshot from the outside.

While impressive, Michigan State has a bit of ground to make up on Illinois before the two meet on February 1st. They still have too many weaknesses to exploit while Illinois seems a fully formed team. I have no doubt that Illinois will lose a game before February, and the game between them and the Spartans may again come down to the rebounding battle. Right now though, the Spartans would find themselves getting run out of their own gym.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 12, 2004

Saturday Morning: Flipping Channels

With the regular season over in football, and most schools either finishing finals or not starting yet, there were close to 100 basketball games on Saturday to match Division 1 teams. With so many games going on though, there were a few match-ups that kept me with my finger on the remote control buttons and switching the channel every few minutes.

The toughest choice on Saturday was the early game. Rick Pitino and a Louisville team with high expectations traveled into Gainesville to take on Pitino's protege, Billy Donovan and his Florida squad. Last years battle saw Louisville roll all over the Gators and help to make sure that a team which had just been named to the #1 position earlier in the week would suffer its second loss of the week, keeping Florida winless all time when they are leading the nation. Neither team was ranked as highly this time, but it doesn't mean the game didn't mean much to both teams. Florida is trying to prove they still have what it takes to compete at the top as they have in the past few years. This year, the talent level is not the same in Gainesville but the expectations are still there. Louisville is still battling back from its opening loss to Iowa out in Maui. They have won every game since and while Pitino thinks the team is still not at its full potential, that doesn't mean they shouldn't play better than they have.

It is conceivable that this game would have been enough to keep me interested, but over on the ESPN Full Court plan was a very close game between South Florida and Michigan. Michigan is coming off a win in the NIT last year and hoping that momentum can carry them into the NCAA tournament this year. However, Michigan was not the story of the game. Rather, that fell to a 6'9" Senior out of Tampa, Florida, named Terrence Leather. Leather towered over the court, leading his team at every opportunity. Every time he touched the ball, he drew the defense to him, and yet, each time he was able to score. He shot inside, laying it off the glass. He would step back and drop in twelve footers over the defenders. He would drive to the basket, playing as hard as he could every minute he played the game.

No one expected Leather to amount to much after his first two years with the team. Something happened to him last year when he averaged 15.5 points a game and became their threat inside. He has carried it over into this season and put on a show in this game. The only thing that kept him from totally dominating, and possibly kept his team from winning, was Leather getting himself into foul trouble. Despite being on the bench for much of the game, with about 15 minutes left in the second half, Leather had 23 of his team's 43 points and they were only down two to Michigan. At that point, Leather got his fourth foul and was sent to the bench. With him out of the game, Michigan was able to take advantage and pull a little further ahead, slowly increasing the lead over the next 5 minutes to 9 points. It would have been worse had South Florida Senior guard Marlyn Bryant not made a massive block inside just before Leather re-entered the game. While he was out, the only player able to do anything for the Bulls was their 5'10" point guard Brian Swift.

Leather coming back into the game was able to provide a small spark and allow the Bulls to once again close the gap as he scored 5 more points. They did not take advantage of him coming back though and feeding him the ball inside did not happen as often as it should have. Instead, South Florida continued to try and live on the outside, a tactic which was not working against Michigan's defense. Down 8, four minutes after returning, Leather fouled out of the game. Once he was out, Swift tried to keep the game close, but he couldn't do it on his own. The Bulls ended up losing by nine. Swift and Leather combined for 41 of the team's 62 points. Not much is expected from South Florida this season after last year winning only one game in Conference USA, but Terrence Leather will definitely put on a show where ever he goes. I know he kept me watching him throughout the game on Saturday.

In between watching Leather's performance, I was taken back in time by watching the Louisville and Florida game. Billy Donovan's clubs have always been known for speed, running their opponents up and down the court and gaining advantages not with superior shooting but penetrating guard play. Rick Pitino wins in a similar way with great guard play, but adds on a pressure defense which is hard for most teams to handle. His attempts to use this in the NBA have never met with much success, but you can't argue with his success on the college level. He seeks to take his third team to the Final Four and this year looks to be the team that can do just that.

Watching both teams on Saturday, I was impressed by how much these teams resembled their teams of the past. Late in the first half, Florida was able to capitalize on their speed and cause turnovers which led to some easy transition baskets. However, you could see the youth of this Florida team, especially Corey Brewer and Taurean Green. Poor shot selection and letting their speed get ahead of them led to a number of turnovers the other direction and allowed wide open shots for the star guards of Louisville, Francisco Garcia and Taquan Dean.

Early in the second half, Garcia was well along the way of taking charge of his team. Within 30 seconds, he hit a three pointer, stole the ball twice and followed that up with another basket, all resulting from the tough press defense which Louisville successfully used to keep Florida from running on them.

It wasn't that Florida didn't try to stay in the game. I was very impressed by David Lee, who has lost a great deal of weight from last season. He looks like a totally different player out on the court. His mobility has improved and this has directly led to him becoming a more productive player for the Gators. Down six with ten minutes remaining, Lee drove the basket in transition and was fouled. The foul was questionably called intentional and Lee hit both free throws. Florida scored on the possession and cut the lead to two.

Swings like this are often enough to get a team back into the game. Listening to the crowd in the O'Connell Center, you would have thought that the Gators had taken the lead or extended it and were ready to pull off the win. Unfortunately for the fans, the team was still down and whatever influence they had, it seemed to drive the Louisville guards even more. Garcia and Dean consistently were able to answer Florida runs and silence the crowd. That is just what happened after this sequence, with Garcia scoring on a pass from Dean. 5 minutes later, it was a Dean three pointer which silenced the Gator crowd.

Florida was able to keep the game close throughout, including a sequence in the final minute when sloppy play by Louisville with Garcia out of the game let Florida have a chance to win. Fully expecting the game to be over with a minute left and the Cardinals up five, Florida was able to rebound a bad three pointer by Dean, taken with 25 second left on the shot clock, and turn it into 2 points on the other end after a foul. A turnover on the next possession by the Cardinals was run down the court by Florida. Strangely, David Lee took a three pointer which hit nothing and fell into Louisville's hands. With their top three point shooter, Anthony Roberson, on the floor, there is no reason that Lee, who didn't hit a three all last year or this year, should be taking that shot. That sealed the game for Pitino. Louisville never trailed the entire game, but still has some work to do to make teams worry about players other than Dean and Garcia. Still, those two were able to lead this team to a win again.

There are days that don't have games with this much appeal, and I was able to watch two at the same time with the rest of Saturday still to follow. Still, I feel sorry for the "Last" button on my remote. At least it will get a break the rest of the week.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 8, 2004

The Jimmy V Foundation

In case you live in a hole and didn't watch basketball last night, or you were so put off by the first 5 minutes of the Pittsburgh-Memphis game that you didn't stick around or pay attention, last night was the Jimmy V Classic.

I wouldn't normally make this plea, because I am not a big charity drive type of guy. Don't take that the wrong way. I give to a few charities which mean something to me and if someone I knew asked me to contribute, I would definitely put some money forward. I just don't like hitting people up for money. The only time I have was for my first 5K run which was sponsored by the Arthritis Foundation. I asked for money for the charity, but the idea was to support the fact that I had made some major changes in my life to get to that point.

Each year, ESPN puts on the Jimmy V Classic. For those that don't know, Jim Valvano was the coach of North Carolina State back in the 1980s. He was a great friend of a lot of the broadcasters on ESPN and he was a fun coach to watch. He was very animated on the sidelines and when he stopped coaching, he was very animated when he called games. If you have ever watched college basketball, you can't help but remember seeing him run wildly around the court after his team won the National Championship, in 1983, as he looked for someone to hug.

Jimmy V lost his life less than 10 years after that to cancer. During the last few years of his life, he dedicated himself to raising money for cancer research, not to save himself, but to help those that came after him. The Jimmy V foundation was set up to do just that. When he announced the formation of the Foundation, he was accepting the Arthur Ashe Award for Courage at the 1993 ESPY awards. This is probably my favorite speech of all time, at any event, anywhere, and you can read it at the Jimmy V foundation website.

It is rare that there is a charity where 100% of everything you contribute goes to research and the Jimmy V Foundation is about the closest thing you will find. A lot of people I know have been touched by cancer. Some have fought and won, others have fought and lost. I hope for a day when we can eliminate the second group and everyone fights and wins.

It is the Holiday Season and many of us are busy spending on gifts for our loved ones so there is probably not a lot of extra money to go around. If there is, please consider giving some to the Jimmy V Foundation. I gave mine last night.

You can link here to their site. Please do what you can to help this fight.

Posted by bmiraski at 3:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Defending the MRI #2

Those of you who read my articles in On The Field will recognize the title of this post. This will be one of the series of articles where I answer reader emails which complain about the position of their team in the rankings. I had one email from an Illini alumnus but I am choosing to answer a different email instead in this column.

The question was posed to me where George Washington was in the rankings:

"Let me offer up my first question: where's George Washington? With victories over 2 top 25 MRI teams I'd have guessed them to make it..."

Ok, that is a good question. With their performance so far, George Washington is near the top of the MRI. As of Monday morning, George Washington was 30th. Between them and the Top 25 were Florida, Oregon, Texas, and Arizona. I pointed out to the reader that at this point in the season, with so many undefeated teams, so many teams playing well, and still very few games played, it is not uncommon for a good team to be out of the Top 25, but close to getting in.

That prompted this response:

"Yes, but OBVIOUSLY if Mich St already has 2 losses and GW beat them head to head, then GW is playing better ball than Mich St and should be ranked higher. Who's Mich. St. beaten that has any credibility? GW has only beaten, oh let's see, Mich. St. AND Maryland."

Mind you, this email writer did not attend Michigan State or George Washington.

My response to all this:

There is a rule within the MRI that teams within 9 MRI points of each other are fairly well balanced in terms of skill. On a neutral court, two teams that close in my ranking system would be fairly well matched and the game could easily go in either direction. This 9 point rule was developed using statistics from the past 4 years analyzing the MRI performance in picking the winner of a game. The first question you have to ask yourself then is: "Are Michigan State and George Washington more than 9 points apart in the rankings?" Michigan State had an MRI of 70.21 while George Washington was at 66.12 so that answer is "No", which means that at this point these teams are pretty similar. After taking into account the results of Monday night's games, the two teams were even closer.

Two statistics which are key in the MRI are rebounds and turnovers. Where does Michigan State shine? On the boards. Somehow, they have out-rebounded their opponents by 9 per game. This isn't the best differential in the league, but is above average and puts the Spartans in the 90th percentile range. This should come back to earth as they play more teams with strong big men inside since they can only afford to play one of theirs at a time.

George Washington has meanwhile been average in those categories. Yes, they have beaten two of the Top 25 MRI teams, but what have they done when not playing those foes? They lost to Wake Forest in the first game of the year and that loss was by 21. They beat Morgan State, Fairfield, and Mount St. Mary's. Those are not exactly teams which strike fear into the hearts of the major conference opponents. They should have dominated these games, but did they? No. They may have won on the scoreboard, and in some cases by bigger margins, but in terms of rebounds and turnovers, they were average and didn't distinguish themselves from their opponents in any way.

Meanwhile, in Michigan State's wins, they dominated the other teams, both on the scoreboard and the backboards. It is interesting to note that in Michigan State's two losses, they got out-rebounded both times. This would be an interesting trend to keep up on.

The point is that at this time in the season, there is not much difference between Michigan State and GW based on their MRI numbers. There is also a lot of basketball to be played which should clear things up. Let's see how each performs in their next games. Michigan State plays Stanford at home on Saturday. Stanford is not a good rebounding team so far this year and of all the teams that ended the year in the Top 25, they have fallen the farthest. If the Spartans win the battle of the boards, let's chalk that up as a win, but at the same time, they have to show that they are better than a down Stanford team by a good margin. At the time of writing this, Michigan State should have a 87% chance of the win including their home court advantage. George Washington plays at St. Francis (PA) on Saturday. This is again, a team they should dominate, however, the Red Flash are a pretty decent team this year. They are picked anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the Northeast Conference and feature consensus all-conference guard, Junior Darshan Luckey who was their top scorer last season. Add in that they are playing at home and you have the recipe for an upset. Let's see if George Washington can show they are the better team, something they haven't done other than on the scoreboard against the lesser opponents. Chance of winning: 54% when you include the Red Flash home court advantage.

Posted by bmiraski at 2:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 7, 2004

Revenge of the Mid-Majors

The MRI numbers first filtered through the spreadsheet last Thursday which was exciting and scary at the same time. It is always tough to tell what the first numbers will look like before they happen. Part of the reason is that the numbers are based on league averages in certain categories and because of this, I can't even see the league average until everyone has a first game under their belt. The second reason is that so much changes from day to day over the course of the first few weeks of the season that one moment, a team could be destined for the #1 spot and the next they are in 39th place. Still, it is exciting to watch as the blue numbers run down the spreadsheet and the first teams are highlighted for the Top 25.

And yet, it is scary. I am always worried that some team that is clearly undeserving will end up at or near the top. I am always worried that there will be some fluke team who manages to destroy the system I have built the last four years and will continue to work with in the future. It didn't happen this year, but the fear is still there.

The opening #1 team: Boston College. That thump you just heard was all of the Illinois and Kansas fans out throwing a shoe at their monitors. Boston College will have a lot to prove to stay there, but they did make a big stride by beating a previously undefeated UCLA team which may just have what it takes to get the Bruins back to the NCAA tournament. If it makes Illinois fans feel better, one of the teams that was ahead of them, Virginia, lost on Monday night this week and their win against Chicago State moved them up a little more.

The thing I am most excited about in the opening rankings is not who is #1, but rather the number of Mid-Major teams in the opening rank. Three teams -- Old Dominion, Wichita State, and Gonzaga -- all managed rankings within the Top 25. The only other time this happened was 2002-3 which was a big year for Mid-Major teams getting to the tournament. If that trend holds true, we may see a lot of disappointed major teams come March. It is not just the numbers that are supporting these teams. It has been their play on the court which must be witnessed. The gap between the top teams and the next tier is closing. As more and more basketball gets broadcast on television, smaller schools are able to recruit better players because these guys don't feel the need to necessarily go to a Duke, North Carolina, or Kansas. They feel they can get a better experience at a smaller school, starting, and playing with what might be the next up and coming coach. Plus, the exposure of schools like a Gonzaga have shown that it is possible to build a small program into something that can contend with whoever they play. I hope that one of these schools can stay in the rankings and that more join them to be in the Top 25 at the end of the season. Maybe we will find the next Kent State this year.

Before I close this week, I just wanted to point out the official mascot team of the MRI, Wofford, has won two games so far this season and is very close to overtaking Purdue and not being last in the "Other" category. That is a big improvement over previous years. At some point this season, I will buy a Barking Brigade tee-shirt.

Posted by bmiraski at 2:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 1, 2004

Big Ten-ACC Challenge

This post is the recreation of an email discussion I had with a friend of mine. He started this whole thing before last night's game but after the opening game between North Carolina State and Purdue.

Going down 1-0 for the Big Ten on opening night didn't bode well for the Big Ten cagers.

"Arguably the biggest game of the year so far: Wake Forest @ Illinois tomorrow night... Mich St @ Duke could be a really good one as well. Big Ten-ACC is always fun, though I think that ACC is undefeated in the series history" - My friend's email

I will add my email response to that in a moment. I would tend to agree that Wake Forest-Illinois will be the biggest game so far, though the Wake Forest-Arizona match-up could have been prior to tonight. Because North Carolina missed the shot at playing Louisville in the Maui Invitational, we didn't get to see the two teams that a lot of people are touting for the championship this year face off. For a second, think back to what a match-up tonight's UNC versus Indiana game would have been a few years back. It is too bad that Mike Davis's team won't be able to handle the Tar Heels tonight, and you can quote me on that.

"ACC is undefeated though some years they have won 5-4. Usually they win the big games and lose the ones lower down. This year, it may be the opposite but I have the feeling the ACC will dominate again and possibly sweep. Illinois gets no love in this thing. For years, they played Duke and now Wake? The mean people at ESPN who put together this made for TV matchup must really hate the Illini." - Me

Ok, so after last night, it is clear that the ACC won't sweep. Maryland losing to Wisconsin guaranteed that, but the ACC might still go 7-2 which is about as close to a sweep as you get these days in college matchups like this. As for my second comment, well, I got hit for it in his recap of the game from last night.

"What's with the Mich St. players (specifically Ager) constantly slapping the floor at Cameron Indoor? You just can't do that. I'm sorry. And even if you do it, the whole thing about slapping the floor is that you do it once (MAYBE twice) towards the later stage of the game when you really need to pick up the defensive intensity and you sense a momentum change - gets the crowd and the team involved. You don't do it on every friggin' play for 20 minutes straight! Think "Boy who cried wolf" thing. What do you mean that Illinois gets no love? I'd say it's the opposite. Every year they've tried to match it up with "Best Big 10" against "Best ACC" and so on down the ladder. Illinois has consistently been perceived as one of the better Big 10 teams (a compliment to them), and thus they've had to play Duke (twice, and both were very very good games) and I think Maryland and now Wake. If I were Illinois, I'd rather have to play a tough early season game like this than to have a more cupcake game against, say, Clemson. I'd argue it's much better for them in terms of setting themselves up for the heart of season and postseason." - My friend's email

All of this was addressed by my points below:

1. This was the classic inside/outside matchup. Duke relied on the outside shot while Michigan State, for the first 13 minutes of the game, constantly tried to push the ball inside. While it didn't work early for the Spartans, they were able to go on a run where it was working and working well. Paul Davis was scoring and scoring at will. Even when he got blocked on one shot, he was able to get his own rebound and take it back strong. Shavlik Randolph and Sheldon Williams had no answer for him. Duke was probably lucky that Michigan State can only play one big man at a time as their team doesn't have the depth to field two. If they could have had two guys inside, they would have won with this strategy...BUT
2. With 7 minutes left in the first half, Davis was called for a charge on a play where he took the ball inside and slammed it down. The defensive player (who I didn't note but I think was Williams) got over just in time to get the charge call. When this happened, Michigan State changed their game and stopped feeding the ball inside to Davis.
3. About the same time, Duke's pressure outside defense started to work better. They prevented passes inside to Davis and they caused a number of quick turnovers in succession which gave them the momentum. These all led to fast break chances which earlier in the game they just weren't getting. The chances were turned into easy lay-up baskets instead of the outside jumpers which they had been living on up until that point. Is it any wonder that J.J. Redick and Daniel Ewing had 58 points combined? They were lofting threes and long range jumpers the entire game. Twelve of the first 17 points that Duke scored came via the three.
4. You have to give Michigan State credit. They stayed in the game. Their outside shooting was just good enough to keep up with Duke who didn't get the ball inside enough. I have watched teams live on the outside. It isn't pretty. When Malik Rose graduated from Drexel, they tried to become a shooting team. Your heart sticks in your throat every time they come down the floor because you wonder where the shot is going to come from. Now, granted, Duke has better shooters than Drexel ever did, and according to the broadcast last night, it seems that they have been really working on their shot (including either Sean Dockery or Ewing, though I think it was Dockery, taking 1000 jumpers a day, and Redick improving his conditioning and shooting to where he finally shoots at the top of his jump). You just can't live on a game like that and their inside guys are going to get murdered against teams like North Carolina who have two big men and a great point guard in Raymond Felton who will get the ball inside to them. Now, does Duke get a little lucky? Yes. Why? The ACC doesn't have the big inside man domination that it did starting about 7 years ago and working forward to last year. Most of the star players are the guards so the ACC may be more of a shooting conference this year. However, if North Carolina stays healthy, Georgia Tech's Luke Schenscher stays out of foul trouble, and Wake Forest's Vytas Danelius steps up again this year to his true form, Duke will have a tough time against those teams. Now, is it any wonder they were picked 4th in the league and could fall as far as 6th?
5. When Michigan State went back to feeding the ball inside, it was when Duke was in foul trouble. They just didn't do it enough. They needed to keep the pressure on Williams who was struggling to play any defense at all with 4 fouls.
6. The final dagger was Ewing hitting a 3 pointer with about a minute left in the game. That put Duke up 5 and Michigan State was just dying on the free throw line. They missed 5 free throws within a 90 second span that would have had the game tied. Instead, they were down five and looked dejected every time they ran down to the Duke end.
7. Slapping the floor is annoying. It was cute the first time Wojo did it, but only because the boy is like 3 feet tall and it really got the crowd into it. Now everyone does it. Maurice Ager should not be doing it when playing away though. And what is with coaches doing it now? Quin Snyder did during Missouri's game against Murray State on Saturday. He was so animated, his hair flopping all over the place. I am sorry, but if you need to slap the floor for your team, especially when playing against Murray State at home, your team has issues. My guess for the end of the season, Snyder will be FIRED!
8. As for the no love, yes, Illinois has been consistently one of the best teams in the Big Ten over the past 6 years. However, at the same time, they don't necessarily need the big game at this point in the season. They normally play a decent enough schedule to where another Top 25 game will not be that much of a deal. Plus, a tough game like this one (and a loss most times) can be killer. Look at Michigan State's schedule last season and how trashed they were. They went 6-8 in their non-conference games before going 12-4 in conference (in a very down year for the Big Ten). They were beat up before the conference season and then worn out at the end of conference season. They went into the tournament against a very good Nevada team and only had a 22% chance of winning the game (based on the MRI). Illinois just needs a break. They obviously weren't going to get it this year against the ACC no matter who they played, but every once in a while, a game against the 7th best team like Virginia would be nice. Or maybe even a matchup with North Carolina State which at least would have given the Big Ten a chance to win more than 3 games this year. Honestly, I don't care either way on Illinois as they are not my team. When this was first started, these were the best two conferences in the country, though the Big Ten didn't put its best 9 teams into the event every season. As it has gone forward, the ACC has gone so far beyond the Big Ten that they should change the conference that they play. The ACC should begin taking on the Big East next season and really determine who the best conference is. The Big Ten should have a consolation challenge with the SEC.

Whew. If you are still here after all that, thanks for sticking around. Have fun watching tonight's Wake Forest-Illinois game, called the Brawl in the Hall over at the Big Ten Wonk. I am personally hoping it will give me as much to think about as last night's feature match.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 24, 2004

Basketball as Life

Think for a moment about something that you excel at. Something that you might have spent the last 26 years of your life involved in. Think about that one thing defining so much who you are that without it, no one would know you. Now think about Steve Alford.

Alford turned 40 years old on Tuesday night, the night that his Iowa Hawkeyes were set to play Texas in the semi-finals of the Maui Invitational. For the past 26 years, and most likely longer, basketball has defined Steve Alford's life. As a high school student, he played on a team coached by his father Sam. He was named Mr. Basketball in the state of Indiana his senior season and recognized by two publications as the top prep player in America. At college at Indiana, Alford started for Bobby Knight all four years. He played on the 1984 Olympic team with Michael Jordan and Patrick Ewing, capturing the Gold Medal. In 1987, as captain of the Hoosiers, he led the team to a National Title. Alford was MVP of the team all four years and left as the all time leading scorer for Indiana.

After 4 years in the NBA, Alford went on to a coaching career, beginning in Division III and working that into a spot at Southwest Missouri State. Along with his father, who coached alongside him, Alford impressed at SMS and was given the job at Iowa. Entering his sixth season as coach, Alford has had basketball at the center of his life. This season, it may be in jeopardy of being taken away from him if his team doesn't produce something it has only done once under him. Iowa hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since an amazing run in the 2001 Big Ten tournament winning 4 games in 4 days gave Iowa the automatic bid. NIT appearances aren't enough to satisfy the Hawkeye fans who were promised big things when Alford took over as head coach. Suddenly, a team picked 5th or 6th in the Big Ten is being asked to produce miracles.

Hopefully for Alford, those miracles began to happen the last three days in Maui. Hawaii is a mystical place, home to islands shrouded in myth and mystery. It has also been home to some of the more miraculous basketball games in history. A #1 Virginia team led by Ralph Sampson walked into a tiny gym in 1982 and was beaten by host school Chaminade in what has been called the Greatest Upset in History. More recently, Ball State made an amazing run in 2001, beating #4 Kansas and #3 UCLA before losing to #1 Duke in the finals of the tournament. Ball State was able to translate that run into a 19-11 regular season and a place in the NIT. They managed to make it to the final 8 teams in that tournament, one win away from a trip to Madison Square Garden.

Iowa isn't Ball State. They play in the Big Ten and attract a talent level above anything that Ball State could hope. Yet, Iowa does have one thing in common with Ball State. They weren't expected to make a run to the finals of the Maui Invitational. Going into Wednesday night, they had done just that.

Iowa began their run with a back and forth game against Louisville. Louisville coach Rick Pitino had tried everything to give his team the edge. He flew out to the islands early and let his team warm up against BYU-Hawaii. He restricted taping of the game, one that his team ended up winning after a late scare, so that Iowa couldn't scout his team. It didn't make much difference. Before the game, Pitino commented that he felt that Iowa may be better than his team at this point in the season. This is Louisville, a team picked to finish in the top 4 by many publications and even to win it all in some. Yet, Monday night, Pitino was right and his Cardinals were taken down by the Hawkeyes.

The win placed Iowa into a game against Texas, another team ranked in the top 15. Texas defeated Chaminade in the opener, in a game where they easily cruised to victory. Their game against Iowa proved to be anything but easy. The game was close throughout. Up by nine midway through the second half, Texas just wasn't able to put it away. Iowa fought back from that deficit and then overcame a five point lead with only a minute left to play. When the buzzer sounded, Iowa had given their coach his 40th birthday present, a win.

Iowa won the Maui Invitational in 1987 and standing in their way of repeating that feat was North Carolina. Going into tonight's game, much had been made of UNC's season opening loss to Santa Clara. Whatever the Broncos did to North Carolina in that game, it inspired the Tar Heels to play like the Top 5 team they are predicted to be. Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants led their team in a game where the opponent looked more like Santa Clara than Iowa. Iowa never led and after being behind by 1 four minutes into the game, they were systematically put away by the strength of North Carolina. Pierre Pierce, who had carried his team to victories in the first two games, was again impressive but played the entire night in the shadow of what Felton was able to do. Playing with a sore wrist, Felton scored 13 points almost effortlessly. He added 9 assists and his tiring defense generated 4 steals. He cut through Iowa's defense again and again, in leading his team to the 14 point victory and a tournament MVP title for his shelf. The result left Iowa looking much like Ball State did at the conclusion of the tournament in 2001, on the short end of a win by a much better opponent.

However, for Iowa, an NIT appearance like Ball State's is not going to be enough. The play of his team in the three games of the tournament should give Steve Alford some hope though for the rest of his season. Despite the loss on Wednesday, his team still scored 92 points and shot over 52% from the field. They will have to improve on their defense, especially when they get to the hard nosed Big Ten season, but all signs point toward an improvement over last year's 16-13 record.

If Alford hopes to keep basketball at the center of his life, those signs had best be correct.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 15, 2004

More on Longwood

Ken Pomeroy is a man with a few more contacts than me. He adds to the discussion of the four new Division 1 teams by interviewing the coach from Longwood. You can check out his interview here.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Communism is Upsetting

I found this article while surfing through Yoni Cohen's College Basketball blog. I chose to link to it not for the reason he did, the banning of the Rock n Roll Part 2 Cheer at Maryland, but because of the last paragraph.

Meanwhile, the 4,000-seat student section that rings the Comcast Center court will be known as "Garyland." Last year's designation — the Red Army — was withdrawn after alumni objected it referred to the Soviet Union.

Yes, and nothing else in college basketball has ever been offensive before. Now, someone is upset about the Soviet Union? And to add to the thought, you are telling me that with all the students who go to that school, they couldn't come up with a better name for the section than "Garyland"? Personally, if I was an opponent, I would feel a little more intimidated by "The Red Army" than something that sounds like a theme park in some guy's backyard dedicated to himself.

Sorry, Maryland, you got this choice very wrong.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 13, 2004

Mississippi State Survives

He came back, but he hasn't played yet. Mississippi State All-Everything forward Lawrence Roberts came back to school this year to play out his Senior season. If the first two games without Roberts are any indication, the team is going to be very glad that he did.

Roberts sat out the team opener against Fairfield, serving a one-game suspension by the NCAA for an issue with a paid try-out when he was considering making the jump to the NBA. The team struggled to beat the Stags by 4. Fairfield is picked to be near the top of the MAAC, but this should be a team that Mississippi State should handle even without Roberts.

Flash forward to game number two against Birmingham Southern, a team that two years ago was an Independent. Ignore the fact that they are picked by almost everyone to win the Big South this year. Roberts again sat out this game, nursing a broken nose. Again his team struggled without him, barely winning again, this time by 7. Birmingham Southern even led at one point during the second half in this game.

Roberts will return against Syracuse when the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament moves to Madison Square Garden. Let's hope he returns with the form that earned him SEC Player of the Year honors last season. If not, his team will definitely be overmatched against any decent opponent. Without him in the line-up, there will be no hope for the Bulldogs to repeat as SEC champs.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Breathe Deep, It Begins

Can you smell that? I do. It is the smell of a new leather ball being rolled out onto the court. The smell of new sneakers (Thank goodness they haven't been worn yet). The smell of a college field house. The smell of popcorn and hotdogs and stale pizza being reheated.

It is college basketball season, and it has begun again. The MRI will be tracking all the Division 1 teams again this year, for the fifth time. And just to make things more difficult for me, the league added 4 new teams this year bringing the total to 330. When I started five years ago, there were 317. Where do these teams come from?

This year's answer to that question may be the strangest yet. This year, the four new teams the MRI will be tracking are Northern Colorado, UC Davis, Longwood, and Utah Valley State.

Northern Colorado is not a new opponent for many Division 1 teams. They have been playing teams for a couple of years, but this is the first year that they play a full slate of Division 1 games. So far, with two games under their belt this year, they have shown that they have a long way to go in the league. Their opening game of the season saw them lose by 50 to Syracuse. They followed that up by losing by 13 to Bucknell. That second game might have been closer had Northern Colorado scored more than 9 points in the first half.

UC Davis will be playing in the Big West starting in 2007. That means 3 seasons as an Independent unless something changes early as has happened many times, most recently with Georgia State moving up their schedule. UC Davis was previously a big name in Division II. UC Davis has a non-D1 game against UC-Santa Cruz before opening their Division 1 season against Utah State on November 27th (barely making it before the opening MRI stats are to be released).

Longwood, located in Virginia, doesn't have a destination picked out in Division 1 yet, and they have a lot to prove before anyone will pick them up. Undersized and without much experience at the D-1 level, Longwood will be struggling to win many games this season, their first out of Division II. They will tip off their season on November 19th against Columbia.

And here is the one that will leave you scratching your head. Welcome Utah Valley State to Division 1. Where are they from? Utah Valley State was a Junior College last year. Yes, last year, they battled other 2-year colleges for supremacy and this year will be facing teams such as Nebraska, Weber State, and Oral Roberts. At least they have senior guard Ronnie Price to lead the team. Price was picked by Street and Smith as the top player in among the eight Independent teams. It may not be much, but when you consider where the team is coming from, it is saying something. Good luck to Utah Valley State. They will be hard pressed to win anything against a Division 1 school this year, but lucky for them, a big group of their games are against the other Independent teams. They begin their inaugural season on November 19th against Weber State.

The tracking has begun, the numbers are calculating. Close to 4500 games left to go before the champion is crowned. It will be another fun ride. I'll be watching.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack