April 6, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Finals Edition
For as poorly as the MRI did at predicting the NIT, it did amazingly well at predicting the NCAA tournament so far.
With one game to go (that the computer cannot win), the MRI was at the 73rd percentile at ESPN, having been helped by a number of upsets along the way. The computer needed the help because it landed just one of its Final Four teams predicted prior to the tournament beginning.
Its solid standing is better than a number of the personalities who get paid the big bucks to spout on about sports on a daily basis at ESPN. The computer is ahead of everyone at PTI, a solid three-quarters of Around the Horn, and is hanging in there against the Editorial staff.
Not bad.
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Finals Edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:49 PM | Comments (0)
March 24, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: NIT Edition
Everyone has been down on the SEC this season, and for good reason. A bunch of mediocre teams, who failed to win even small games during the non-conference season, doesn't make for exciting basketball.
When you add in that the "normal" names failed to impress, no one was watching.
And no one is watching the SEC anymore, at least in the NCAA tournament. As the second weekend gets set to begin, all three teams from the South have already packed their gear away for the off-season.
But those fans might want to flip the channel from CBS to ESPN. The league that everyone though was way down has actually impressed in that other tournament, the NIT.
Of the eight teams remaining, three are from the SEC, and all three should be favored in their games to get to Madison Square Garden.
Imagine that. We aren't talking about three teams from the supposedly very deep Big East -- it could have happened. We aren't talking about Big XII. And we aren't talking about the little guys breaking through, although at least one of the Final Four spots will be taken by a team with a little chip on its shoulder.
Nope, this is the SEC that is running through what has actually been the more competitive tournament when you look at how fairly matched the teams have been.
As always, let's see what the computer says about who should be headed to MSG on March 31.
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: NIT Edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:03 AM | Comments (0)
March 23, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Second chances
Inevitably, the question around the office this morning is “How’s your bracket?”
Most people at this point are probably feeling good. That’s because once again, chalk has dominated the competition.
And there is no surprise in that. The computer was confident that there were four teams better than all the rest. All four of those are still alive and the only team that is starting to look like they could challenge them is Connecticut.
But then again, most of that is thanks to their record-setting victory over what was the worst MRI-rated team in the tournament, Chattanooga.
If you are keeping track of your bracket at ESPN, a ten-point difference at this point is worth over 400,000 spots in the standings, which makes the computer situation a little tenuous at this point.
You see, the computer has 500 points over at ESPN. After 24 correct first-round picks, the computer swept through the second round, getting all but one game correct that it could. That leaves the computer with 13 of its original Sweet Sixteen picks.
The MRI can still win seven of eight games on Thursday and Friday and three of its Final Four are still alive.
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Second chances"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:09 AM | Comments (0)
March 21, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: 2nd Round
Sure your bracket is busted. I know the MRI's bracket is. The MRI had West Virginia running to the Final Four.
That didn't work out so well.
If it had happened, along the way, the Mountaineers would have needed to win two 50-50 games against Kansas and Louisville. That is tough no matter who you are.
But it couldn't even win its first game, and that is going to make it very interesting as the tournament goes forward. That's because the MRI is usually right in it until the end. The breaking point of the pre-tournament picks doesn't usually come until later in the rounds.
Then again, maybe it was to be expected. The MRI got 24 of 32 games correct in the first round. It was only expecting to correctly pick 25 of the 32 (add up the percentage and you get the expected win numbers for those statistically challenged).
Not too shabby.
That has the computer in the 77.7 percentile on ESPN's Bracket Challenge. So even with the upsets, the computer is beating two-thirds of the country.
We'll see how that goes the rest of the way missing a key piece of the puzzle. I can't imagine it will go well.
So on to the second round, for those of you who are maybe placing friendly wagers. I know that many people also have second-chance Sweet Sixteen brackets, so don't fear, we will give you a sneak peek at who you should be expecting to be in that.
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: 2nd Round"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:10 AM | Comments (0)
March 17, 2009
Projecting The Tournament: Official Bracket Edition
Enough messing around with half-cocked predictions based on Joe Lunardi. Come on, the guy only got 64 of the 65 teams correct this year. How can you actually trust someone who isn't right 100 percent of the time?
Of course, I kid.
But the MRI does not kid. It gives it to you straight, albeit with some nice percentages attached to cover its silicon behind.
So what are the chances of your precious school making it all the way through to compete in Detroit (by the way, maybe the NCAA should look more closely at its scheduling. Is Detroit really a "destination location" for anything these days? Even the auto show might be in danger.)?
Well, the MRI can't exactly give you that... at least not yet. That is an off-season Excel programming exercise. But for right now, we can tell you what the computer picks for every game in the NCAA tournament. (NIT picks for the first round are here.)
How is that for a compromise?
Let's go to the brackets. Each team will be listed in the round it goes out (up to the Final Four) with the chance of them LOSING the game. It is simple math to get the chance of them winning.
After each round, we will post updated editions with the chances for the rest of the tournament.
Continue reading "Projecting The Tournament: Official Bracket Edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:26 PM | Comments (0)
March 2, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: March 2 Edition
Ok, so earlier today, I said that Oklahoma wouldn't make the Final Four. But a lot depends on the seeding...
And it appears that Joe Lunardi decided to prove me wrong and seed Oklahoma as the best team in the South. No team that the computer has better than Oklahoma is in that region, which is a shock since so many teams from the Big East are up there.
So Oklahoma proves me wrong and wins the South to get to the Final Four.
Thanks Joe.
I think the most interesting part of today's outcomes is the fate of all those bubble teams.
Choose any of them that you think is close to making the tournament.
Then look for that team in the "One and Done" category; I almost guarantee it is there.
It just goes to show you that no matter how much arguing and complaining you do, most of those teams on the bubble don't belong in the tournament in the first place.
Of course because I wrote that we will have a "George Mason"-like run this season now.
Enjoy the brackets
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: March 2 Edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:54 PM | Comments (0)
February 17, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 17 edition
If Duke's recent failures haven't harmed them in the MRI (yet), they certainly are starting to feel sting in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology (Through games of Sunday, Feb. 15).
The Blue Devils have fallen to a No. 3 seed. And if that wasn't bad enough, they are in the East region with two other top 5 MRI teams: Connecticut and Memphis.
As a result, Duke goes from being a team playing in the finals last Friday, to a team that is eliminated in their Sweet Sixteen game. That is quite a ways to fall, and it doesn't help that they continue to slip in the MRI rankings.
There is only one 12-5 upset this projection, an Arizona win over Ohio State.
The Buckeye loss doesn't bode well for the Big Ten. Even with six teams in the tournament, only one, Michigan State, manages to make it to the second weekend of the tournament.
But you can check it all out in the latest bracket prognostication.
On to the brackets:
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 17 edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:00 AM | Comments (0)
February 13, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 13 edition
Joe Lunardi's latest projection is up which means another MRI projection.
As with Lunardi's bracket, the MRI numbers used for the projections includes all games through 2/12/2009.
To the Bracket:
One and Done:
Midwest: Morgan State, South Carolina, Washington, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Vermont, Arizona State, Jacksonville
West: Alabama State, Princeton, Virginia Tech, Purdue, North Dakota State, UNLV, Weber State, Florida State, Cal State Northridge
South: Morehead State, Miami, Boston College, Western Kentucky, Butler, Robert Morris, Kentucky, VMI
East: Holy Cross, Dayton, Ohio State, Buffalo, Arizona, Northeastern, Minnesota, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 13 edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:38 PM | Comments (0)
February 10, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 10 edition
Joe Lunardi has gone to twice-weekly predictions so we are going to step up our predictions of the tournament winners also. It is a little scary how close the MRI is to predicting the same teams into the tournament as Lunardi this season.
Either the MRI is improving in its ratings of teams, the league is just that balanced that almost anything can be correct, or Lunardi has gone off his rocker.
Whatever reason you choose, it is always a fun prediction.
Let's go to the brackets (Using Lunardi's Monday, Feb. 9 bracket and the MRI through games of Feb. 8):
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 10 edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 6:37 PM | Comments (0)
February 5, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 5 edition
Well, this feels a little strange, considering how badly the projected championship team lost last night.
Duke picked such a great night to have only the second-worst lost ever under Coach K. The only loss that was worse was one to a talent-heavy UNLV team in the finals of the NCAA tournament.
That loss could be forgiven, but a loss to a fellow ACC team like this? No, that one can't be forgiven which is why Coach K said that the team better not forget this loss.
So it is with a sense of irony that I post this week's tournament projections, which still have the Blue Devils capturing the title in Joe Lunardi's latest bracket.
On to the projections.
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Feb. 5 edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:02 PM | Comments (0)
January 28, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: Jan. 28 edition
It is time to look at the NCAA tournament again, as projected by Joe Lunardi.
For those that might think I am making fun of the Bracket-master by doing this, that is not true, even when I have a 5- or 6-seed going to the Final Four. It is not like it has never happened.
More true is that I am looking at where the teams are seeded versus where they measure up in the computer rankings. It is a way at looking at how disparate two views of the same data can be.
For example, did I really think that West Virginia was a Final Four team last week? Well, why not? They are a great team. So what if they were seeded low. Bob Huggins has gotten more out of less more than any other coach that I know of. Maybe this was going to be the breakthrough year for Huggy-bear.
I believe this could give a lot of fans some insight into what will happen come March given what has already transpired.
And now to the Brackets:
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: Jan. 28 edition"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:07 AM | Comments (0)
January 23, 2009
Projecting the Tournament: New methodology, new ways to rip the MRI
In an attempt to please the insightful commenters who just love my tournament projections (read: repeatedly flame me left and right), I will be changing the format this year.
Since last year led to a slight ... let's say hiatus, for the projections, look at this as a way to make a fresh start for the MRI.
How will it work this year? Welcome to the Bracketology edition of the MRI tournament projections.
Each week, we will use Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology and project out the tournament based on the current MRI ratings.
Right now, we will likely see many of the games be straight-up chalk, but as the season wears on, I expect us to see more and more upsets come into play.
From the MRI's perspective, this is the best possible circumstance: It can't be wrong!
So each week, get ready to read who is one and done, and who are the favorite for the Final Four.
And if I get enough response, perhaps I will bring back the full scale tournament projections. It definitely drove traffic.
So now, to the brackets, using Lunardi's 1/19/09 bracket:
Continue reading "Projecting the Tournament: New methodology, new ways to rip the MRI"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:49 PM | Comments (0)
April 2, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Championship
I am sure there are those who disagree with the MRI so far and how it has done.
No matter.
Tonight, the human elements should in most cases agree with the computer.
If you think Greg Oden is the most defensively dominant player on the floor tonight, you might be right. However, Florida throws a good amount of offense against him including several big men, a strategy which will force Oden to commit and potentially have to recommit and cause early fouls.
If you think Ohio State's guards are talented, you are short changing Florida's guards who could easily play both outside and as small forwards on most teams.
If you want depth, there are few teams in the country that can throw more talent at you than Florida off the bench.
I am looking straight out to the country at large and saying Florida will repeat...
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Championship"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:30 PM | Comments (0)
March 31, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Final Four
And so the magic that was the first part of the tournament crumbles. It could have been expected. The top teams, despite the percentages the MRI put out, are all good, and they know how to win. Otherwise, I wouldn't have thought that 7 of the eight teams that were remaining were in that group. Unfortunately for me, the numbers didn't hold.
If you listen to the ESPNU podcast on college basketball, you know that last week, Jay Bilas and Andy Glockner backed off making predictions on the show. As Glockner said, when Bilas, or Dick Vitale (ok, Vitale's picks have a little bias in them towards teams that wear blue), or any expert give predictions, they do it based on percentages, just like the MRI. And so when they are wrong, it wasn't like they were wrong. The analysis can show that one team has the better chance of winning. However, things don't always go right. Memphis got into foul trouble which stopped them from taking advantage of Greg Oden's time on the bench. North Carolina decided that the rim was smaller than the size of a basketball. And Kansas forgot they could run.
And that is how the MRI ended 1 for 4 in the Elite Eight. Despite that (and going ice cold in the NIT predictions), the computer is still at 75% for the tournament.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 8 for 8 overall (2 over the expected value of wins - 6)
Elite Eight: 1 for 4 overall, 0 for 1 in upsets (2 below the expected number of wins - 3)
Tournament overall: 45 for 60, 75%
Let's go to the Final Four Numbers.
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Final Four"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:40 PM | Comments (0)
March 24, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Elite Eight Saturday
Another sweep in the MRI for Friday night. That means the MRI perfectly predicted all eight games in the Sweet Sixteen. The way the tournament stands with 8 teams left feeds directly into my theory before it began that there was an elite group of teams, though with their flaws, and everyone else. We have seen the flaws judging by the close scores in the games, but we have also seen 7 of those elite ten teams advance to the Elite Eight. The one outsider: Oregon. And Oregon is a team that was one a roll coming into the tournament, much like Florida was last year. Can Oregon beat Florida and continue looking just like the Gators? We have to wait until Sunday for that.
One other side note. For those that are curious, the MRI was entered as an expert into the bracket contest on FanIQ, using the bracket based on the results in the first Tournament Projection article post-Selection Sunday. As it currently stands, the MRI is the 3rd best expert in the field, and 83 overall out of 827 entries. Not bad a bucket of chips. Should North Carolina win the tournament as predicted by the MRI, the computer will not only have a chance at being the #1 expert (which it will likely be as the entries above it have Ohio State as the champ), it also has a chance to be the #1 overall entry into the pool. How about them apples?
OK, let's not get ahead of ourselves. There are still seven games remaining in this tournament and anything is possible, especially with the group of teams we have remaining.
For now, let's look at the numbers for Saturday and the updated statistics.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 8 for 8 overall (2 over the expected value of wins - 6)
Tournament overall: 44 for 56, 78.6%
And Saturday's numbers...
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Elite Eight Saturday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:00 AM | Comments (0)
March 23, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Sweet Sixteen Friday
Four more game on Friday await. The MRI got a huge lift with Ohio State coming back from 17 down at halftime to make the computer perfect in the four games Thursday. I can't say I am shocked, but I am very surprised that Ohio State had that kind of comeback in them, especially after they had to battle back against Xavier. That is one heck of a halftime adjustment. Friday's games look to be a little bigger margin for the favored team.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 4 for 4 overall
Tournament overall: 40 for 52, 76.9%
Let's go to the numbers for Friday:
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Sweet Sixteen Friday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:00 AM | Comments (0)
March 22, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Sweet Sixteen Thursday
Only 15 games left, and the MRI is still proving to be a fair indicator of teams that deserve to be playing for the National Title. Not only that, the MRI is also proving itself well, in its prediction of that other tournament, the NIT, having hit over 75% of the games until this point.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Tournament overall: 36 for 48, 75%
How does the MRI see Thursday looking? Let's go to the numbers.
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Sweet Sixteen Thursday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:00 AM | Comments (0)
March 18, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Second Round Sunday
Saturday was a decent day for the MRI. We weren't perfect, but perfection wasn't expected. In fact, the expected value of wins for yesterday was just over 6 so we were on target with our predictions from that standpoint.
Updated statistics so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 6 for 8
Tournament overall: 31 for 40, 77.5%
How does Sunday's slate look? Let's go to the percentages.
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Second Round Sunday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:00 AM | Comments (0)
March 17, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Second Round Saturday
We are into the first weekend of games, and already a couple of upsets on the books, though not as many as last year.
So far, the MRI is 25 of 32 correct for a percentage of 78%. In games where the MRI predicted an upset of the higher seeded team (including a nine over an eight), the MRI is 2 for 6, or 33%. Friday was not a good day for the upset predictions as the computer managed to blow all three predicted.
So what does the MRI have for Saturday?
Continue reading "Playing the Percentages: Second Round Saturday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:00 AM | Comments (0)
March 13, 2007
Tournament Predictions - MRI Style
It is time to predict the tournament using only the MRI. This year is especially strange since most of the games have the higher seeded team as the actual higher ranked team in the MRI.
Unlike in years past though, the teams matched in many of the games are very close in the MRI rankings which means that no one has an "easy" road to the Final Four or the Championship.
So, the following are the percentage chances for each team to come out on top in their games, based on only the rankings at the end of the season. Percentages are based on 4 years of actual game date. Note that the MRI becomes less accurate as the tournament goes on, if only because it relies on all available game data to predict. Therefore, for example, the prediction for Notre Dame-Oregon in the second round could change based on the performance of the teams in the first round. However, the game will still be very close and likely a 50% toss-up. When the percentage designates a toss-up, that will be noted with no winner. Basically, you could just flip a coin for the winner.
Percentages shown are based only on the teams that are predicted to win the previous round's game. It is assumed that the percentage chance will be greater should there be an upset in the previous round.
And with that, let's look at the Midwest Region:
Continue reading "Tournament Predictions - MRI Style"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:35 PM | Comments (0)
March 10, 2007
MRI2006: "Computer" Tournament Projection #8
This bracket is based on the MRI, a purely computer-generated ranking system that does not allow for the ‘human factor’. Therefore, what a human may ‘believe’ about the quality of a particular team does not factor in; only the numbers are relevant. Thus, as a purely statistical view of the college basketball landscape, it is by definition impartial and unbiased.
That's right. We are back to disclaimer land, especially since I am sure this bracket will cause some fervor. This bracket is based on the results through Friday night, with reference to a game on Saturday (America East Final).
And so what is new to get upset about? Washington State: OUT, Southern Illinois: OUT, USC: still OUT, Virginia: still OUT. Meanwhile, still in: Connecticut, both Florida State and Clemson, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. Who knew? I think Mississippi State did a lot for its image winning a tough game against Kentucky in the SEC tournament, but not making the finals is going to weigh on them with the committee, even with the good win. Arkansas is meanwhile shooting into the SEC Final, which should prove an interesting game against an again streaking Florida.
Virginia, meanwhile, didn't do anything to help itself by bowing out to North Carolina State, the 10 seed in the ACC tournament. Washington State squeaked a win against Washington, but then folded against USC. Southern Illinois, despite their great record, just doesn't have the super win that might have pushed them into definitive tournament strength by MRI standards, and not playing anymore probably means that they will be a missed team this year because there are a number of teams ahead of them that have finished their season and will not be able to drop behind the Salukis.
So, with that, time to bring on the computer tournament projection.
Continue reading "MRI2006: "Computer" Tournament Projection #8"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:17 PM | Comments (0)
March 6, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #7
Tournament Projection is through games of Monday, March 5. This does not include Wright State's victory on Tuesday evening.
The upsets are starting to happen.
That is really causing issues with the seedings, especially throwing in a few teams which just last week were on the outside looking in.
Speaking of seedings, I am starting to get some notice from The Bracket Project, now that my site is up to date. One of the big issues this season seems to be the lack of teams from the PAC-10, a conference which was #6, and last, of the power conferences in the MRI. Specifically, the low seeding of Washington State and the missing USC are bringing issue. I will have more comments on that tomorrow, but let's leave you with a thought on Washington State's seeding. There are 337 teams that the MRI ranks in Division 1. Washington State's non-conference SOS of 320th of those 337 teams. How can that at all justify a #3 seed like in Joe Lunardi's bracket?
No matter how well you play in conference, especially one where very few teams are playing tough non-conference schedules, you can't warrant a high seed just by finishing in the top 3 of one of those power conferences.
Ok, more tomorrow on that.
Check out all the seedings in the 7th MRI Tournament Projection.
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #7"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:49 PM | Comments (5)
February 27, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #6
It finally happened. The Missouri Valley managed to squeak another team into the field. With their conference tournament starting this week, can they get three or more teams in? We will have to see who makes it to the finals.
Meanwhile, Massachusetts has staked a claim to a bid in the tournament, making two teams for the Atlantic 10. I still believe that the Minutemen will need a berth in their conference championship game to earn that right, but they have hung around after a good start to their season.
Losing ground quickly are teams from the Big East and ACC. The large groups which have been "IN" week after week haven't shown the same stuff as of late and their numbers are close to dwindling for good, especially as the conference tournaments start. The teams that are MRI bubble teams will need to make deep runs to ensure they have a spot in the real field.
One thing to keep an eye on this season. You will see a good number of teams from the major conferences making the tournament with double digit losses on their seasons. That is definitely something that we are not used to seeing in the tournament. It is unfortunate for the mid-major conferences that they had such down years in the non-conference slate because this would have been a prime year to squeak in multiple teams with the way that the major conferences were down in terms of how they stacked up.
One important note here. Notice that ACC co-leader Virginia and SEC 2nd place Vandy are not in from the MRI view. This speaks volumes about the schedule they played out of conference and also who they were matched with in the unbalanced schedules within their conference. I think we will see more and more, teams that have good conference seasons left out of the tournament because they only beat up on the bottom half of the league and didn't achieve against the other conference leaders.
Check out all the "seedings" in Week 6 of the MRI Tournament Projections.
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #6"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:14 PM | Comments (1)
February 20, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #5
Yet another tournament projection from the MRI.
The Big East is back to 10 teams, and the MVC is still hanging with one, even though Southern Illinois keeps trying to edge closer. It is saying something about the drop in the league this year that a team which has 20 wins and only 5 losses, and leads the conference is struggling to get into the MRI consideration for the tournament.
The Colonial and Mountain West still look to be the only two mid-majors with multiple bids in their pockets. The Mountain West is holding strong with 3 and San Diego State is charging hard to make it four. Is it possible? Yes, but unlikely. Drexel is also making a case for a third team from the Colonial, but would need to win out, and probably make the finals of the conference tournament at this point to warrant inclusion. All that despite the best non-conference profile of any team from that league.
Check out all the seedings in Week 5 of the Tournament Projections.
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #5"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:13 PM | Comments (0)
February 13, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #4
The Big East lost one if its spots this week, dropping them into more pedestrian single digits. At the same time, it was the Big Ten's gain, pushing Purdue up into the mix after their crushing defeat of Michigan State. The loss knocked the Spartans down again the rankings again and making their claim on a protected top 4 spot all but over.
The Colonial almost seems like a lock for two spots at this point. Both Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth could be sitting in the Top 25 MRI spots after the season ends given their relative profiles. It is interesting since the qualitative numbers would lie more in Drexel's favor for pulling the second spot out of the conference, but Old Dominion and VCU are leading the conference race, so it is theirs if they can play well enough and grab it.
Check out the full bracket in Week 4 of the MRI Tournament Projections.
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #4"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:00 AM | Comments (0)
February 6, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #3
It's the third projection and a month left in the season. The Big East still is holding on to 10 spots, but that grasp at history is tenuous at best with Syracuse and Louisville barely keeping a hold on their spots.
The ACC picks up their 8th bid this week, although they may not have it for long. They do this at the cost of the Big XII who can only manage 4 spots this week. And for all of you looking for Oklahoma State, you won't find them here, even though their neighbors in Norman appear.
The Mountain West and the Colonial conference both make statements this week, with multiple bids (3 and 2 respectively). It would be a coup for the Colonial to get multiple bids again this year after the success of George Mason last season. However, the way that Old Dominion and VCU are playing, it would be tough to keep either of them out at this point.
Check out the full bracket in week 3 of the MRI tournament projections.
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #3"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:40 PM | Comments (0)
January 30, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #2
What does the number 10 mean? It is the number of Big East teams that would qualify for the tournament according to the MRI. When last year, there was huge talk of the conference finally breaking the 8 team barrier, this year, the teams are getting the benefit of a very soft bubble in the MRI to sneak 10 in as of the end of January.
What does the number 1 mean? It is the number of Missouri Valley teams that are currently in the MRI bracket. How can the #7 conference in the land get only one bid while the Mountain West is slated for three times that? The Missouri Valley teams are very good, but the conference is so good from top to bottom that the top teams can't break away from the bottom of their league. They get upset, and not just at the top of the standings, but all the way down to the Drakes and Illinois States. As such, they are getting one team in although there are a number of teams on the outside who can make a big run and get those other tournament spots. It seems amazing that a conference which should have received 5 bids last season can barely scrape up 1 this year.
Check out all of Tournament Projection #2
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #2"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:15 PM | Comments (1)
January 23, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #1
Just thinking of posting this worries me. After last year's mess with Marquette, I can only imagine the craziness that this year's posting will bring out. First of all, remember, this is only through the games of January 21st. That means that all the losses that Duke has taken aren't in here. The losses that Oklahoma will take over the next two games after that point are not in here. Oklahoma State has yet to recover after a few tough losses, and the Missouri Valley is still an enigma that we are are trying to deal with.
Let me give you a different way to look at this projection, which will likely not jibe with any of the other projections will you will find on the Internet. Remember last year when I had George Mason as a 4 or 5 seed for most of the projections? Basically, the MRI was projecting that George Mason would behave as a #4 or #5 seed in the tournament based on how they had performed to date. That didn't mean the committee would honestly give them that seed (their actual seed was much lower), but it meant that they might surprise and perform to a #4 or #5 level. Now, it is always dependant on who they are slotted to play in the tournament. I didn't have them better than a North Carolina, or a Connecticut last season. So, in actuality, when the bracket came out, I had them going out in the second round. It didn't mean I didn't think they were still worthy of a #4 or #5. It just meant that I thought North Carolina was worthy of more like a #3 or #2 seed last season.
So, I know that won't quiet the critics, but I also know that the MRI managed to get 75% of the tournament games correct last season, which is more than most of the nation got right if ESPN is any indication. And picking round by round, well, that is an even better number. Just a thought.
With that said, here are the first round of tournament projections, and remember, that as of this posting, it is 3 weeks to the old.
Continue reading "MRI2006: Tournament Projection #1"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 6:20 PM | Comments (0)
April 3, 2006
The National Championship, April 3rd, 2006
You can't blame the winners for making the games boring. If the losing team can't produce enough excitement to counter what the winning teams are doing, there is nothing that the top teams can do. So, don't blame UCLA and Florida for the lack of excitement generated by LSU and George Mason, respectively.
But, if all holds true, everything should be different tonight. A battle of wills is going to be waged on the court and the stronger team in terms of keeping control and momentum should hold serve.
Keys to tonight's game for UCLA:
- Control the tempo: Don't let Florida consistently run the ball up court.
- Rebound, rebound, rebound: One of the keys to Florida's victories have been their ability to get second chance shots consistently. UCLA needs to fight Florida on the glass better and hold them to one shot.
- Shoot over 40%: No secret here. Florida has been brutal on defense for the tournament. If UCLA can crack the 40% barrier, it means they are getting good guard contribution outside the paint. While they will still need to challenge the big men on the interior, without a consistent outlet for Hollins and Mbah a Moute when they get in trouble, UCLA will sink as fast as George Mason did.
Keys for Florida:
- Run: It worked on Jai Lewis and Will Thomas. Get the big men for UCLA moving and force them to get back on defense quickly to help guard the boards and the break. Hollins and Mata can move, but past those two, the bench thins considerably for the Bruins. Trying to combat Noah, Horford, and the rest of the Florida front line could be trouble if they are worn down.
- Exploit the three point line: Lee Humphrey was deadly from beyond the arc in the second half against George Mason. If he or Brewer can hit consistently, Florida can open a big lead early which will be difficult for the methodical offense of UCLA to come back against. Even if they are missing, the size and depth of the big men should allow them second chance points, provided that they are there to rebound. Just the threat should be enough to open up the inside just a little bit more for Noah.
- Hold onto the ball: Turnovers have been happening for the Gators, but they haven't really affected them yet. The story in most of the games has been that they controlled the tempo, so losing the ball here and there usually was able to wash out in the extra possessions that the increased pace of the generated. UCLA is not going to speed through the game like George Mason tried to against Florida. The Gators need to control the ball longer, and not let their big men, especially Noah, lose them momentum by fumbling the ball away or taking too many steps.
Florida (3) vs. UCLA (2)
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 67.78%
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0)
April 1, 2006
The Final Four, April 1st, 2006
Sitting in Columbia, South Carolina, the Gamecocks are celebrating a second straight victory in the NIT. And while they are celebrating, the bigger championship is still to be decided. Playing for that championship are two teams that South Carolina knows well, LSU and Florida, currently seen as possible favorites for a finals rematch.
What does the MRI say about the Final Four?
Continue reading "The Final Four, April 1st, 2006"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:45 PM | Comments (0)
March 26, 2006
MRI Predicts the Final Four - Sunday
The MRI is still stinging from yesterday. Two 80% confidence games, two losses.
Things to learn from that?
- There is no way that Texas can win when LaMarcus Aldridge can't hit a shot from within 10 feet of the basket.
- Even though they tried, Memphis can't win while Rodney Carney is in foul trouble and they only hit two three point baskets on the night.
It was painful as anything to watch the UCLA-Memphis game. Both teams were shooting terribly and UCLA didn't make it any better with their foul shooting.
So what does the MRI have to say today, to make up for yesterday's losses?
Washington Region: Connecticut (1) vs. George Mason (11)
MRI Predicts: Connecticut Confidence factor: 72.80%
Minneapolis Region: Villanova (1) vs. Florida (3)
MRI Predicts: Florida Confidence factor: 59.93%
All I can say is Go Gators! Enjoy the games.
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:30 AM | Comments (0)
March 25, 2006
MRI Predicts the Final Four - Saturday
The MRI is celebrating being correct on seven of the eight Sweet Sixteen contests.
With only seven games left in the tournament, the computer still has a chance to get all seven correct as it predicted them before the tournament started.
As for round by round, the computer is excelling even more.
So who will be the first two participants in the final four?
Atlanta Regional: Texas (2) vs. LSU (4)
MRI Predicts: Texas Confidence factor: 79.16%
Oakland Regional: Memphis (1) vs. UCLA (2)
MRI Predicts: Memphis Confidence factor: 79.16%
As a sneak peak to the Sunday games, the MRI is predicting Connecticut and Florida to move on for now. Tune in tomorrow for the exact percentages.
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:30 PM | Comments (0)
March 24, 2006
Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Friday
I am still trying to catch my breath. The highlights keep rolling on ESPN, repeatedly showing the last few seconds of the final two games from Thursday.
Kenton Paulino deftly catching the pass from AJ Abrams with his left hand and in one motion stopping his rush up the court and jumping from about three feet beyond the arc. Swish! Game over. Texas advances.
Jordan Farmar steals the ball from over JP Batista's head in the back court and tosses it to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for an easy two points. Derek Raivio rushes up the court with the ball, harassed by the UCLA defense. The ball is knocked from him and Mbah a Moute dives to the floor to cover it up forcing the tie-up. Arron Afflalo manages to hit one free throw after getting fouled on the inbounds pass, keeping hope for the Zags alive. Gonzaga has one last heave down court to Batista. Clunk! Game over. UCLA survives and Adam Morrison collapses to the floor in tears.
Within about the game space of about a minutes, two No. 2 seeds survive what were amazing games.
Not to take anything away from the earlier two contests, but the second two were games that rival the finishes of last season's Regional Finals. And there is no reason to suspect that they won't lead to great games on Saturday making us recall last year's games once again.
So, with Thursday's games done and Saturday's games set, the MRI takes a look at Friday's schedule and who should still be playing on Sunday afternoon.
Continue reading "Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Friday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:00 PM | Comments (0)
March 23, 2006
Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Thursday
8 games, two days, getting us to what last year was the most exciting two days of the season.
Not to take anything away from the championship game last year, or the Final Four, but it was all downhill after the Regional Finals.
So who is going to make it to the Regional Finals this year and try to live up to last year's buzzer beaters, comebacks and shockers?
Let's see what the MRI has to say about Thursday's games.
Continue reading "Tournament Musings: Sweet 16 Thursday"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (2)
March 15, 2006
Tournament Musings: Lines 5 through 8
Now that you have the inside track on the top lines in the bracket, what are you going to do on the tough match-ups, the games anywhere from the 5-12 to the 8-9. We all know there are some trends but what do the rules from the first part tell us about the other games?
Let's keep looking at that first round.
Continue reading "Tournament Musings: Lines 5 through 8"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:00 PM | Comments (0)
March 14, 2006
Tournament Musings: The Rules and the Top 4 lines
People think that just because I have a rating system, I always pick the games strictly according to the numbers.
Some of that is true, but a lot of that is not. The best brackets I have always have a bit of knowledge soaked into them to complement the numbers.
So what is that knowledge? I'll tell you. Let's look at the 2006 bracket and make some picks.
Continue reading "Tournament Musings: The Rules and the Top 4 lines"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:00 PM | Comments (0)
March 11, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #6.5
Another tournament projection to bring the wrath of Marquette and West Virginia fans everywhere. Nope, they still aren't in according to the MRI.
And neither is Alabama, who even CBS is now calling a bubble team.
And yes, Clemson is still there, much to the dismay of many people across the country.
But Louisville is gone. And Cal and Indiana are climbing quickly. It will all come down to the final few games left in the conference tournaments to see who the MRI will miss this year.
Check out this special mid-week projection based on results through Friday.
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #6.5"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:55 PM | Comments (2)
March 6, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #6
I may be the most hated man in several parts of the country after last week's tournament projections. Specifically, Milwaukee natives and those in the West Virginia are not too happy with me.
So at the risk of further beatings, here are the tournament projections for MRI #6. Yes, Clemson is still there. So are Louisville, Syracuse, and probably at least three other teams that will get some yells and screams. And don't even talk to me about seeding if you don't read the disclaimer. I know what these seeds mean and so do those who have done their MRI research. Either way, enjoy this for what you will.
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #6"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:00 PM | Comments (22)
February 27, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #5
It never fails. There is always at least one team that sneaks in that even I know has no business being in the Tournament projections. Last week, that team was Oklahoma State, thanks to its massive win over what, at the time, was MRI #1 Texas.
This week, Clemson is the team with no business being around. They have hung around just out of the tournament once they fell like a stone in conference. The loss of James Mays left them without a definite inside presence and the rest has been history (Before you shout "Akin Akingbala", Mays is still the Tiger's leader in rebounds per game despite not having played in the last 16 contests). However, a big win over tournament hopeful Virginia, and the Tigers are right back in it. Exactly how dominant was the win? Clemson was rolling up numbers that they haven't reached since 1969 and won the game by their largest margin against an ACC foe since 2000.
But how does a single victory like this propel the Tigers into the field? Better ask the other bubble teams who continue to struggle with no one team asserting itself. The only team that has made a big move from out to in over the past weeks has been Bradley and they have shot up the rankings to the Top 25. Teams like Seton Hall, UTEP, UAB, and Miami, have all lingered, never winning by much to distance themselves from the pack. All that is prime for a big move like Clemson's. Can they hold on? Most likely, the answer to that is no, and in all likelihood, Clemson would need an improbable win in the ACC tournament to actually make the field. However, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are both winnable games. Chances are that they will not win both and will drop back down in the MRI. The real question will be what other MRI bubble team replaces them.
Check out all the field of 65 in the fifth MRI Tournament Projection.
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #5"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 7:30 PM | Comments (21)
February 20, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #4
A number of changes this week in the tournament projections thanks to some bad play by teams that just barely made it in last week. The Big Ten, ACC, and Missouri Valley, all lose a bid this week. Those dance tickets were picked up by the Big 12, SEC, and Conference USA.
Two of the last four teams into the tournament come from the Big East. Could they be ready to give up one of their eight bids for good?
Check it all out in Week 4 of the MRI Tournament Projections.
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #4"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 7:00 PM | Comments (4)
February 13, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #3
A third week and a new slate of #1 teams as Connecticut moves up to round out the top four teams in the country. Meanwhile, the bubbles gets a little bigger for some teams. Movement by mid-major leaders expanded the field down to a ranking of 52 in the MRI, lower than last year's cut-off for the actual tournament.
A few teams are hanging on but the cliff is very steep. Kentucky learned that the hard way this week, falling from the last team in to far back. Meanwhile, there are a number of teams still climbing and a string of a few wins could propel them into March. Cal and UTEP are just some of the names that a big push could move from NIT to a fancy dance ticket.
With one month remaining until selection Sunday, anything could happen, and will. Just four weeks to get that resume in order, and never a better time than the present to make that move. Check out all the brackets in Week 3 of the MRI tournament projections.
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #3"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:15 PM | Comments (1)
February 7, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #2
Another week, another tournament projection for you all to laugh at. The Missouri Valley conference posts 5 bids again, but one of the bids is not who it was last week. The ACC steals two bids from the Big XII to make it 7 for the top rated conference in the MRI. The Big East still scores the mother lode with eight bids, which would be the most ever for a single conference.
Between the Big East, Big Ten, and ACC, 22 of the 65 bids are taken. Will the other 43 teams have something to say come tournament time to stop one of the powers from the monster conferences from taking home the golden ball? We will see...
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #2"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)
January 30, 2006
MRI2005: Tournament Projection #1
The first edition of Tournament Projections for the year are released and there are some notable absences. West Virginia (discussed in this week's MRI), Kentucky, Wake Forest, and UAB, are all on the outside looking in at this edition. It doesn't mean they won't get there, but over the next month, they have a lot to prove or they might be looking at a different type of tournament. As always, this pretty much follows the MRI numbers straight down with some adjustments on the lower conference bids. Enjoy the projections and remember: There is a long way to go to Selection Sunday.
Continue reading "MRI2005: Tournament Projection #1"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:45 PM | Comments (0)