April 2, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Championship
I am sure there are those who disagree with the MRI so far and how it has done.
No matter.
Tonight, the human elements should in most cases agree with the computer.
If you think Greg Oden is the most defensively dominant player on the floor tonight, you might be right. However, Florida throws a good amount of offense against him including several big men, a strategy which will force Oden to commit and potentially have to recommit and cause early fouls.
If you think Ohio State's guards are talented, you are short changing Florida's guards who could easily play both outside and as small forwards on most teams.
If you want depth, there are few teams in the country that can throw more talent at you than Florida off the bench.
I am looking straight out to the country at large and saying Florida will repeat...
...which probably means they will not.
But the computer agrees with me.
(1) Ohio State vs. (1) Florida: Florida - 66.44%
Updated statistics for the computer this tournament:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 8 for 8 overall (2 over the expected value of wins - 6)
Elite Eight: 1 for 4 overall, 0 for 1 in upsets (2 below the expected number of wins - 3)
Final Four: 2 for 2 overall
Tournament overall: 47 for 62, 75.80%
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 31, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Final Four
And so the magic that was the first part of the tournament crumbles. It could have been expected. The top teams, despite the percentages the MRI put out, are all good, and they know how to win. Otherwise, I wouldn't have thought that 7 of the eight teams that were remaining were in that group. Unfortunately for me, the numbers didn't hold.
If you listen to the ESPNU podcast on college basketball, you know that last week, Jay Bilas and Andy Glockner backed off making predictions on the show. As Glockner said, when Bilas, or Dick Vitale (ok, Vitale's picks have a little bias in them towards teams that wear blue), or any expert give predictions, they do it based on percentages, just like the MRI. And so when they are wrong, it wasn't like they were wrong. The analysis can show that one team has the better chance of winning. However, things don't always go right. Memphis got into foul trouble which stopped them from taking advantage of Greg Oden's time on the bench. North Carolina decided that the rim was smaller than the size of a basketball. And Kansas forgot they could run.
And that is how the MRI ended 1 for 4 in the Elite Eight. Despite that (and going ice cold in the NIT predictions), the computer is still at 75% for the tournament.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 8 for 8 overall (2 over the expected value of wins - 6)
Elite Eight: 1 for 4 overall, 0 for 1 in upsets (2 below the expected number of wins - 3)
Tournament overall: 45 for 60, 75%
Let's go to the Final Four Numbers.
(2) Georgetown vs. (1) Ohio State: Ohio State - 66.41%
(2) UCLA) vs. (1) Florida: Florida - 73.29%
Expected wins for Saturday: 1.4 rounded down to 1
Enjoy the games.
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 24, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Elite Eight Saturday
Another sweep in the MRI for Friday night. That means the MRI perfectly predicted all eight games in the Sweet Sixteen. The way the tournament stands with 8 teams left feeds directly into my theory before it began that there was an elite group of teams, though with their flaws, and everyone else. We have seen the flaws judging by the close scores in the games, but we have also seen 7 of those elite ten teams advance to the Elite Eight. The one outsider: Oregon. And Oregon is a team that was one a roll coming into the tournament, much like Florida was last year. Can Oregon beat Florida and continue looking just like the Gators? We have to wait until Sunday for that.
One other side note. For those that are curious, the MRI was entered as an expert into the bracket contest on FanIQ, using the bracket based on the results in the first Tournament Projection article post-Selection Sunday. As it currently stands, the MRI is the 3rd best expert in the field, and 83 overall out of 827 entries. Not bad a bucket of chips. Should North Carolina win the tournament as predicted by the MRI, the computer will not only have a chance at being the #1 expert (which it will likely be as the entries above it have Ohio State as the champ), it also has a chance to be the #1 overall entry into the pool. How about them apples?
OK, let's not get ahead of ourselves. There are still seven games remaining in this tournament and anything is possible, especially with the group of teams we have remaining.
For now, let's look at the numbers for Saturday and the updated statistics.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 8 for 8 overall (2 over the expected value of wins - 6)
Tournament overall: 44 for 56, 78.6%
And Saturday's numbers...
West Region:
(2) UCLA vs. (1) Kansas: Kansas - 73.34%
South Region:
(2) Memphis vs. (1) Ohio State: Memphis - 70.76%
Expected wins for Saturday: 1.4 rounded down to 1
Enjoy the games.
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 23, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Sweet Sixteen Friday
Four more game on Friday await. The MRI got a huge lift with Ohio State coming back from 17 down at halftime to make the computer perfect in the four games Thursday. I can't say I am shocked, but I am very surprised that Ohio State had that kind of comeback in them, especially after they had to battle back against Xavier. That is one heck of a halftime adjustment. Friday's games look to be a little bigger margin for the favored team.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Sweet Sixteen: 4 for 4 overall
Tournament overall: 40 for 52, 76.9%
Let's go to the numbers for Friday:
Midwest Region:
(5) Butler vs. (1) Florida: Florida - 86.00%
(7) UNLV vs. (3) Oregon: Oregon - 59.30%
East Region:
(6) Vanderbilt vs. (2) Georgetown: Georgetown - 82.61%
(5) USC vs. (1) North Carolina: North Carolina - 93.93%
Expected wins for Friday: 3
Enjoy the games.
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 22, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Sweet Sixteen Thursday
Only 15 games left, and the MRI is still proving to be a fair indicator of teams that deserve to be playing for the National Title. Not only that, the MRI is also proving itself well, in its prediction of that other tournament, the NIT, having hit over 75% of the games until this point.
Updated statistics for the tournament so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 11 for 16 overall, 1 for 2 upsets (Only 1 off the expected value of wins - 12)
Tournament overall: 36 for 48, 75%
How does the MRI see Thursday looking? Let's go to the numbers.
West Region:
(4) Southern Illinois vs. (1) Kansas: Kansas - 91.88%
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (2) UCLA: UCLA - 50.83%
South Region
(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 70.74%
(5) Tennessee vs. (1) Ohio State: Ohio State - 78.71%
MRI's expected wins for Thursday: 3 wins
Enjoy the Games!
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 18, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Second Round Sunday
Saturday was a decent day for the MRI. We weren't perfect, but perfection wasn't expected. In fact, the expected value of wins for yesterday was just over 6 so we were on target with our predictions from that standpoint.
Updated statistics so far:
1st Round: 25 for 32 overall, 2 for 6 upsets
2nd Round so far: 6 for 8
Tournament overall: 31 for 40, 77.5%
How does Sunday's slate look? Let's go to the percentages.
Midwest Region:
(9) Purdue vs. (1) Florida: Florida - 85.97%
(11) Winthrop vs. (3) Oregon: Oregon - 70.65%
(7) UNLV vs. (2) Wisconsin: Wisconsin - 73.50%
West Region:
(9) Kentucky vs. (1) Kansas: Kansas - 85.97%
(5) Virginia Tech vs. (4) Southern Illinois: Virginia Tech - 54.41%
East Region:
(5) USC vs. (4) Texas: Texas - 73.50%
South Region:
(5) Tennessee vs. (4) Virginia: Tennessee - 70.65%
(7) Nevada vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 85.97%
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 17, 2007
Playing the Percentages: Second Round Saturday
We are into the first weekend of games, and already a couple of upsets on the books, though not as many as last year.
So far, the MRI is 25 of 32 correct for a percentage of 78%. In games where the MRI predicted an upset of the higher seeded team (including a nine over an eight), the MRI is 2 for 6, or 33%. Friday was not a good day for the upset predictions as the computer managed to blow all three predicted.
So what does the MRI have for Saturday?
Midwest Region:
(5) Butler vs. (4) Maryland: Maryland - 70.70%
West Region:
(11) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (3) Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh - 73.44%
(7) Indiana vs. (2) UCLA: UCLA - 73.44%
East Region:
(6) Vanderbilt vs. (3) Washington State: Washington State - 66.51%
(7) Boston College vs. (2) Georgetown: Georgetown - 82.55%
(9) Michigan State vs. (1) North Carolina: North Carolina - 91.86%
South Region:
(9) Xavier vs. (1) Ohio State: Ohio State - 73.44%
(6) Louisville vs. (3) Texas A&M: Texas A&M - 78.68%
Enjoy the games
Copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
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March 13, 2007
Tournament Predictions - MRI Style
It is time to predict the tournament using only the MRI. This year is especially strange since most of the games have the higher seeded team as the actual higher ranked team in the MRI.
Unlike in years past though, the teams matched in many of the games are very close in the MRI rankings which means that no one has an "easy" road to the Final Four or the Championship.
So, the following are the percentage chances for each team to come out on top in their games, based on only the rankings at the end of the season. Percentages are based on 4 years of actual game date. Note that the MRI becomes less accurate as the tournament goes on, if only because it relies on all available game data to predict. Therefore, for example, the prediction for Notre Dame-Oregon in the second round could change based on the performance of the teams in the first round. However, the game will still be very close and likely a 50% toss-up. When the percentage designates a toss-up, that will be noted with no winner. Basically, you could just flip a coin for the winner.
Percentages shown are based only on the teams that are predicted to win the previous round's game. It is assumed that the percentage chance will be greater should there be an upset in the previous round.
And with that, let's look at the Midwest Region:
Midwest Region:
(1) Florida vs. (16) Jackson State: Florida - 97.29%
(8) Arizona vs. (9) Purdue: Arizona - 59.35%
(5) Butler vs. (12) Old Dominion: Butler - 52.36%
(4) Maryland vs. (13) Davidson: Maryland - 52.36%
(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Winthrop: Notre Dame - 70.75%
(3) Oregon vs. (14) Miami (Ohio): Oregon - 86.06%
(7) UNLV vs. (10) Georgia Tech: UNLV - 52.36%
(2) Wisconsin vs. (15) Texas AMCC: Wisconsin - 82.48%
2nd Round:
(1) Florida vs. (8) Arizona: Florida - 82.48%
(5) Butler vs. (4) Maryland: Maryland - 66.38%
(6) Notre Dame vs. (3) Oregon: TOSS-UP !!!
(7) UNLV vs. (2) Wisconsin: Wisconsin - 73.38%
Sweet 16:
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland: Florida - 78.64%
TOSS-UP vs. (2) Wisconsin: Wisconsin - 70.75%
Elite Eight:
(1) Florida vs. (2) Wisconsin: Florida - 70.75%
Final Four Entry: Likely Florida
West Region:
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Niagara: Kansas - 93.89%
(8) Kentucky vs. (9) Villanova: Villanova - 52.36%
(5) Virginia Tech vs. (12) Illinois: Illinois - 54.38%
(4) Southern Illinois vs. (13) Holy Cross: Southern Illinois - 52.36%
(6) Duke vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth: Duke - 59.35%
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (14) Wright State: Pittsburgh - 86.06%
(7) Indiana vs. (10) Gonzaga: Indiana - 54.38%
(2) UCLA vs. (15) Weber State: UCLA - 94.13%
2nd Round:
(1) Kansas vs. (9) Villanova: Kansas - 82.48%
(12) Illinois vs. (4) Southern Illinois: Illinois - 66.38%
(6) Duke vs. (3) Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh - 66.38%
(7) Indiana vs. (2) UCLA: UCLA - 73.38%
Sweet 16:
(1) Kansas vs. (12) Illinois: Kansas - 82.48%
(3) Pittsburgh vs. (2) UCLA: TOSS-UP !!!
Elite 8:
(1) Kansas vs. TOSS-UP: Kansas - 73.38%
Final Four Entry: Likely Kansas
East Region:
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Eastern Kentucky: North Carolina - 99.39% (1 in 163 chance of upset)
(8) Marquette vs. (9) Michigan State: Michigan State - 59.35%
(5) USC vs. (12) Arkansas: Arkansas - 70.75%
(4) Texas vs. (13) New Mexico State: Texas - 73.38%
(6) Vanderbilt vs. (11) George Washington: George Washington - 59.35%
(3) Washington State vs. (14) Oral Roberts: Washington State - 66.38%
(7) Boston College vs. (10) Texas Tech: Boston College - 66.38%
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Belmont: Georgetown - 86.06%
2nd Round:
(1) North Carolina vs. (9) Michigan State: North Carolina - 91.84%
(12) Arkansas vs. (4) Texas: Texas - 59.35%
(11) George Washington vs. (3) Washington State: Washington State - 59.35%
(7) Boston College vs. (2) Georgetown: Georgetown - 78.64%
Sweet 16:
(1) North Carolina vs. (4) Texas: North Carolina - 91.84%
(3) Washington State vs. (2) Georgetown: Georgetown - 78.64%
Elite 8:
(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Georgetown: North Carolina - 82.48%
Final Four Entry: Very Likely North Carolina
South Region:
(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Central Connecticut State: Ohio State - 94.13%
(8) BYU vs. (9) Xavier: Xavier - 59.35%
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Long Beach State: Tennessee - 73.38%
(4) Virginia vs. (13) Albany: Virginia - 66.38%
(6) Louisville vs. (11) Stanford: Louisville - 73.38%
(3) Texas A&M vs. (14) Pennsylvania: Texas A&M - 86.06%
(7) Nevada vs. (10) Creighton: Nevada - 59.35%
(2) Memphis vs. (15) North Texas: Memphis - 93.89%
2nd Round:
(1) Ohio State vs. (9) Xavier: Ohio State - 73.38%
(5) Tennessee vs. (4) Virginia: Tennessee - 66.38%
(6) Louisville vs. (3) Texas A&M: Texas A&M - 78.64%
(7) Nevada) vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 86.06%
Sweet 16:
(1) Ohio State vs. (5) Tennessee: Ohio State - 82.48%
(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 70.75%
Elite 8:
(1) Ohio State vs. (2) Memphis: Memphis - 70.75%
Final Four Entry: Likely Memphis
Final Four:
(1) Florida vs. (1) Kansas: TOSS-UP !!!
(1) North Carolina vs. (2) Memphis: North Carolina - 70.75%
Championship Game:
(1) North Carolina vs. TOSS-UP: North Carolina - 73.38%
Likely National Champion: North Carolina
The MRI Rankings are copyright 2007 by MRISports.com. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 11:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 10, 2007
MRI2006: "Computer" Tournament Projection #8
This bracket is based on the MRI, a purely computer-generated ranking system that does not allow for the ‘human factor’. Therefore, what a human may ‘believe’ about the quality of a particular team does not factor in; only the numbers are relevant. Thus, as a purely statistical view of the college basketball landscape, it is by definition impartial and unbiased.
That's right. We are back to disclaimer land, especially since I am sure this bracket will cause some fervor. This bracket is based on the results through Friday night, with reference to a game on Saturday (America East Final).
And so what is new to get upset about? Washington State: OUT, Southern Illinois: OUT, USC: still OUT, Virginia: still OUT. Meanwhile, still in: Connecticut, both Florida State and Clemson, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. Who knew? I think Mississippi State did a lot for its image winning a tough game against Kentucky in the SEC tournament, but not making the finals is going to weigh on them with the committee, even with the good win. Arkansas is meanwhile shooting into the SEC Final, which should prove an interesting game against an again streaking Florida.
Virginia, meanwhile, didn't do anything to help itself by bowing out to North Carolina State, the 10 seed in the ACC tournament. Washington State squeaked a win against Washington, but then folded against USC. Southern Illinois, despite their great record, just doesn't have the super win that might have pushed them into definitive tournament strength by MRI standards, and not playing anymore probably means that they will be a missed team this year because there are a number of teams ahead of them that have finished their season and will not be able to drop behind the Salukis.
So, with that, time to bring on the computer tournament projection.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | OVC: Eastern Kentucky | ||
| #8 | Kentucky | #9 | Old Dominion | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | BYU | #12 | Connecticut | ||
| #4 | Michigan State | #13 | PATRIOT: Holy Cross | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #3 | UCLA | #14 | Wright State | ||
| #6 | Georgia Tech | #11 | Massachusetts | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #7 | Illinois | #10 | Tennessee | ||
| #2 | Pittsburgh | #15 | ATLANTIC SUN: Belmont | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | MAAC: Niagara | ||
| #8 | Villanova | #9 | Purdue | ||
| Winston Salem, NC | |||||
| #5 | Oregon | #12 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| #4 | Duke | #13 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Xavier | #14 | New Mexico State | ||
| #6 | UNLV | #11 | Arkansas | ||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #7 | Louisville | #10 | Clemson | ||
| #2 | Texas A&M | #15 | NORTHEAST: Central Connecticut State | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | MEAC: Delaware State | ||
| #8 | Nevada | #9 | Indiana | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | MAC: Akron | #12 | Syracuse | ||
| #4 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | #13 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Georgetown | #14 | BIG WEST: Long Beach State | ||
| #6 | Texas | #11 | Creighton | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | Arizona | #10 | Virginia Tech | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | AMERICA EAST: Albany | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #1 | Kansas | #16 | play-inSWAC: Mississippi Valley State vs. BIG SKY: Weber State | ||
| #8 | Butler | #9 | Missouri State | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Virginia Commonwealth | #12 | Florida State | ||
| #4 | Notre Dame | #13 | George Washington | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Maryland | #14 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| #6 | Air Force | #11 | Gonzaga | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Marquette | #10 | Mississippi State | ||
| #2 | Ohio State | #15 | SUN BELT: North Texas | ||
| East plays South, West plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 10 (6), SEC (5), Pac-10 (3), Big 12 (3), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (3), MVC (2), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), WAC (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Syracuse | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Arkansas | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Syracuse, Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida State | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Southern Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Washington State | |||||
| Toughest Region: West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Easiest Region: Midwest (Saint Louis, MO) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 3:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 6, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #7
Tournament Projection is through games of Monday, March 5. This does not include Wright State's victory on Tuesday evening.
The upsets are starting to happen.
That is really causing issues with the seedings, especially throwing in a few teams which just last week were on the outside looking in.
Speaking of seedings, I am starting to get some notice from The Bracket Project, now that my site is up to date. One of the big issues this season seems to be the lack of teams from the PAC-10, a conference which was #6, and last, of the power conferences in the MRI. Specifically, the low seeding of Washington State and the missing USC are bringing issue. I will have more comments on that tomorrow, but let's leave you with a thought on Washington State's seeding. There are 337 teams that the MRI ranks in Division 1. Washington State's non-conference SOS of 320th of those 337 teams. How can that at all justify a #3 seed like in Joe Lunardi's bracket?
No matter how well you play in conference, especially one where very few teams are playing tough non-conference schedules, you can't warrant a high seed just by finishing in the top 3 of one of those power conferences.
Ok, more tomorrow on that.
Check out all the seedings in the 7th MRI Tournament Projection.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | OVC: Eastern Kentucky | ||
| #8 | Nevada | #9 | Kentucky | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Air Force | #12 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| #4 | Davidson | #13 | Michigan | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Pittsburgh | #14 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| #6 | Butler | #11 | Creighton | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | MAC: Akron | #10 | Oregon | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | ATLANTIC SUN: Belmont | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Texas A&M | #16 | MAAC: Niagara | ||
| #8 | Old Dominion | #9 | Purdue | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Georgia Tech | #12 | Syracuse | ||
| #4 | Notre Dame | #13 | PATRIOT: Holy Cross | ||
| Winston Salem, NC | |||||
| #3 | Duke | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Villanova | #11 | Southern Illinois | ||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #7 | Illinois | #10 | UNLV | ||
| #2 | Florida | #15 | SUN BELT: North Texas | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | Big Sky: Northern Arizona | ||
| #8 | Louisville | #9 | Tennessee | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Arizona | #12 | Florida State | ||
| #4 | Xavier | #13 | Washington State | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Georgetown | #14 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| #6 | Texas | #11 | Virginia Tech | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | BYU | #10 | Mississippi State | ||
| #2 | Ohio State | #15 | NORTHEAST: Central Connecticut State | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #1 | Kansas | #16 | play-inSWAC: Mississippi Valley State vs. MEAC: Delaware State | ||
| #8 | Clemson | #9 | Missouri State | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Virginia Commonwealth | #12 | Connecticut | ||
| #4 | Michigan State | #13 | West Virginia | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Maryland | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Marquette | #11 | Gonzaga | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Indiana | #10 | Massachusetts | ||
| #2 | UCLA | #15 | BIG WEST: Long Beach State | ||
| East plays South, West plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (9), ACC (7), Big 10 (7), SEC (4), Pac-10 (4), Big 12 (3), Mountain West (3), MVC (3), Colonial (2), Atlantic 10 (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Louisville, UNLV, Connecticut | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Akron, Purdue, Southern Illinois | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Southern Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, Washington State | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Arkansas, Washington, Missouri, Providence | |||||
| Toughest Region: West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Easiest Region: South (San Antonio, TX) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 10:49 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
February 27, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #6
It finally happened. The Missouri Valley managed to squeak another team into the field. With their conference tournament starting this week, can they get three or more teams in? We will have to see who makes it to the finals.
Meanwhile, Massachusetts has staked a claim to a bid in the tournament, making two teams for the Atlantic 10. I still believe that the Minutemen will need a berth in their conference championship game to earn that right, but they have hung around after a good start to their season.
Losing ground quickly are teams from the Big East and ACC. The large groups which have been "IN" week after week haven't shown the same stuff as of late and their numbers are close to dwindling for good, especially as the conference tournaments start. The teams that are MRI bubble teams will need to make deep runs to ensure they have a spot in the real field.
One thing to keep an eye on this season. You will see a good number of teams from the major conferences making the tournament with double digit losses on their seasons. That is definitely something that we are not used to seeing in the tournament. It is unfortunate for the mid-major conferences that they had such down years in the non-conference slate because this would have been a prime year to squeak in multiple teams with the way that the major conferences were down in terms of how they stacked up.
One important note here. Notice that ACC co-leader Virginia and SEC 2nd place Vandy are not in from the MRI view. This speaks volumes about the schedule they played out of conference and also who they were matched with in the unbalanced schedules within their conference. I think we will see more and more, teams that have good conference seasons left out of the tournament because they only beat up on the bottom half of the league and didn't achieve against the other conference leaders.
Check out all the "seedings" in Week 6 of the MRI Tournament Projections.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | Big Sky: Northern Arizona | ||
| #8 | Akron | #9 | Kentucky | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Texas | #12 | Providence | ||
| #4 | Air Force | #13 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Pittsburgh | #14 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| #6 | Davidson | #11 | Massachusetts | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | Missouri State | #10 | Florida State | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | NORTHEAST: Central Connecticut State | ||
| #8 | Louisville | #9 | Oregon | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Old Dominion | #12 | Syracuse | ||
| #4 | Maryland | #13 | Patriot: Holy Cross | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Michigan State | #14 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| #6 | Butler | #11 | Mississippi State | ||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #7 | Clemson | #10 | Connecticut | ||
| #2 | Texas A&M | #15 | ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | OVC: Austin Peay | ||
| #8 | Georgia Tech | #9 | Indiana | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Villanova | #12 | Washington State | ||
| #4 | Xavier | #13 | Oklahoma | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Georgetown | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Illinois | #11 | Boston College | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Nevada | #10 | UNLV | ||
| #2 | UCLA | #15 | BIG WEST: Long Beach State | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #1 | Kansas | #16 | play-inSWAC: Jackson State vs. MEAC: Delaware State | ||
| #8 | BYU | #9 | Virginia Tech | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Arizona | #12 | Purdue | ||
| #4 | Notre Dame | #13 | WCC: Gonzaga | ||
| Winston Salem, NC | |||||
| #3 | Duke | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Marquette | #11 | Southern Illinois | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Virginia Commonwealth | #10 | Tennessee | ||
| #2 | Ohio State | #15 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| East plays South, West plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (9), ACC (8), Big 10 (6), Big 12 (4), SEC (4), Pac-10 (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2), MVC (2), Atlantic 10 (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Connecticut, Providence | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Oregon, Boston College | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Boston College, Purdue, Washington State, Oklahoma | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: West Virginia, Georgia, Missouri, Michigan | |||||
| Toughest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) | |||||
| Easiest Region: Mid-West (Saint Louis, MO) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 2:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 20, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #5
Yet another tournament projection from the MRI.
The Big East is back to 10 teams, and the MVC is still hanging with one, even though Southern Illinois keeps trying to edge closer. It is saying something about the drop in the league this year that a team which has 20 wins and only 5 losses, and leads the conference is struggling to get into the MRI consideration for the tournament.
The Colonial and Mountain West still look to be the only two mid-majors with multiple bids in their pockets. The Mountain West is holding strong with 3 and San Diego State is charging hard to make it four. Is it possible? Yes, but unlikely. Drexel is also making a case for a third team from the Colonial, but would need to win out, and probably make the finals of the conference tournament at this point to warrant inclusion. All that despite the best non-conference profile of any team from that league.
Check out all the seedings in Week 5 of the Tournament Projections.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | Big Sky: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | Nevada | #9 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Notre Dame | #12 | Missouri | ||
| #4 | Michigan State | #13 | Syracuse | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Pittsburgh | #14 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| #6 | Butler | #11 | Boston College | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Kentucky | #10 | Purdue | ||
| #2 | UCLA | #15 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | NORTHEAST: Central Connecticut State | ||
| #8 | Texas | #9 | Illinois | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Clemson | #12 | WCC: Gonzaga | ||
| #4 | Villanova | #13 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #3 | Duke | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | BYU | #11 | West Virginia | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Missouri State | #10 | Providence | ||
| #2 | Ohio State | #15 | Big West: Long Beach State | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | OVC: Tennessee Tech | ||
| #8 | Connecticut | #9 | Oklahoma | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Marquette | #12 | Tennesssee | ||
| #4 | Maryland | #13 | PATRIOT: Holy Cross | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #3 | Air Force | #14 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| #6 | Old Dominion | #11 | Florida State | ||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #7 | Indiana | #10 | Oregon | ||
| #2 | Texas A&M | #15 | ATLANTIC SUN: Belmont | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #1 | Kansas | #16 | play-inSWAC: Jackson State vs. MEAC: Delaware State | ||
| #8 | Akron | #9 | Louisville | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Xavier | #12 | Virginia Tech | ||
| #4 | Arizona | #13 | Mississippi State | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Georgetown | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Virginia Commonwealth | #11 | Washington State | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | Georgia Tech | #10 | UNLV | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| East plays West, South plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (10), ACC (8), Big 10 (6), Big 12 (5), SEC (4), Pac-10 (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Missouri, Gonzaga | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Syracuse, Mississippi State | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Mississippi State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Missouri | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Southern Illinois, Massachusetts, Alabama, Georgia | |||||
| Toughest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) and Mid-West (Saint Louis, MO) | |||||
| Easiest Region: South (San Antonio, TX) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 4:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 13, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #4
The Big East lost one if its spots this week, dropping them into more pedestrian single digits. At the same time, it was the Big Ten's gain, pushing Purdue up into the mix after their crushing defeat of Michigan State. The loss knocked the Spartans down again the rankings again and making their claim on a protected top 4 spot all but over.
The Colonial almost seems like a lock for two spots at this point. Both Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth could be sitting in the Top 25 MRI spots after the season ends given their relative profiles. It is interesting since the qualitative numbers would lie more in Drexel's favor for pulling the second spot out of the conference, but Old Dominion and VCU are leading the conference race, so it is theirs if they can play well enough and grab it.
Check out the full bracket in Week 4 of the MRI Tournament Projections.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | Northeast: Robert Morris | ||
| #8 | Illinois | #9 | UNLV | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Missouri State | #12 | Gonzaga | ||
| #4 | Villanova | #13 | Washington | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #3 | UCLA | #14 | Patriot: Holy Cross | ||
| #6 | Connecticut | #11 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | Oklahoma | #10 | Florida State | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | Big West: Long Beach State | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | play-in: MEAC: Delaware State vs. SWAC:Jackson State | ||
| #8 | Old Dominion | #9 | Virginia Tech | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Notre Dame | #12 | Michigan | ||
| #4 | Air Force | #13 | MAC: Akron | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #3 | Duke | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Butler | #11 | Texas | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #7 | Michigan State | #10 | Washington State | ||
| #2 | Pittsburgh | #15 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #1 | Kansas | #16 | BIG SKY: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | Georgia Tech | #9 | Nevada | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Xavier | #12 | Purdue | ||
| #4 | Marquette | #13 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #3 | Arizona | #14 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| #6 | Kentucky | #11 | Providence | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | BYU | #10 | Boston College | ||
| #2 | Ohio State | #15 | OVC: Tennnessee Tech | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State | ||
| #8 | Oregon | #9 | West Virginia | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #5 | Indiana | #12 | Arkansas | ||
| #4 | Clemson | #13 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Georgetown | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Virginia Commonwealth | #11 | Louisville | ||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #7 | Maryland | #10 | Tennessee | ||
| #2 | Texas A&M | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| East plays West, South plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (9), ACC (8), Big 10 (7), Pac-10 (5), SEC (4), Big 12 (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Boston College, Providence | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: UNLV, Washington State | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Washington, Arkasnas, Purdue, Michigan | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Georgia, Southern Illinois, ALabama, Syracuse | |||||
| Toughest Region: South (San Antonio, TX) and West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Easiest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) and Mid-West (Saint Louis, MO) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 10:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 6, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #3
It's the third projection and a month left in the season. The Big East still is holding on to 10 spots, but that grasp at history is tenuous at best with Syracuse and Louisville barely keeping a hold on their spots.
The ACC picks up their 8th bid this week, although they may not have it for long. They do this at the cost of the Big XII who can only manage 4 spots this week. And for all of you looking for Oklahoma State, you won't find them here, even though their neighbors in Norman appear.
The Mountain West and the Colonial conference both make statements this week, with multiple bids (3 and 2 respectively). It would be a coup for the Colonial to get multiple bids again this year after the success of George Mason last season. However, the way that Old Dominion and VCU are playing, it would be tough to keep either of them out at this point.
Check out the full bracket in week 3 of the MRI tournament projections.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | OVC: Tennessee Tech | ||
| #8 | Illinois | #9 | Texas | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Kentucky | #12 | Syracuse | ||
| #4 | Georgetown | #13 | Southern: Davidson | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #3 | Wisconsin | #14 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| #6 | Connecticut | #11 | WCC: Gonzaga | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Maryland | #10 | Old Dominion | ||
| #2 | UCLA | #15 | Big West: Long Beach State | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | play-in: MEAC: Delaware State vs. SWAC:Jackson State | ||
| #8 | Florida State | #9 | Nevada | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #5 | Michigan State | #12 | MAC: Akron | ||
| #4 | Notre Dame | #13 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #3 | Duke | #14 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| #6 | Butler | #11 | Louisville | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #7 | Oklahoma | #10 | UNLV | ||
| #2 | Pittsburgh | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Texas A&M | #16 | Big Sky: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | BYU | #9 | Georgia Tech | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #5 | Virginia Commonwealth | #12 | Alabama | ||
| #4 | Marquette | #13 | Patriot: Holy Cross | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #3 | Arizona | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Missouri State | #11 | Arkansas | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | West Virginia | #10 | Boston College | ||
| #2 | Ohio State | #15 | NORTHEAST: Robert Morris | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State | ||
| #8 | Providence | #9 | Xavier | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Indiana | #12 | Washington State | ||
| #4 | Clemson | #13 | Tennessee | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #3 | Air Force | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Oregon | #11 | Virginia Tech | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Villanova | #10 | Michigan | ||
| #2 | Kansas | #15 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| East plays West, South plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (10), ACC (8), Big 10 (6), SEC (5), Pac-10 (4), Big 12 (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Boston College, Michigan, Alabama | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Nevada, Xavier, Virginia Tech | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Tennessee, Syracuse, Washington State, Virginia Tech | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Kansas State, Southern Illinois, Purdue, Georgia | |||||
| Toughest Region: MidWest (St. Louis, MO) | |||||
| Easiest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) and West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com
Posted by bmiraski at 3:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 30, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #2
What does the number 10 mean? It is the number of Big East teams that would qualify for the tournament according to the MRI. When last year, there was huge talk of the conference finally breaking the 8 team barrier, this year, the teams are getting the benefit of a very soft bubble in the MRI to sneak 10 in as of the end of January.
What does the number 1 mean? It is the number of Missouri Valley teams that are currently in the MRI bracket. How can the #7 conference in the land get only one bid while the Mountain West is slated for three times that? The Missouri Valley teams are very good, but the conference is so good from top to bottom that the top teams can't break away from the bottom of their league. They get upset, and not just at the top of the standings, but all the way down to the Drakes and Illinois States. As such, they are getting one team in although there are a number of teams on the outside who can make a big run and get those other tournament spots. It seems amazing that a conference which should have received 5 bids last season can barely scrape up 1 this year.
Check out all of Tournament Projection #2
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | Big Sky: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | Texas | #9 | Arkansas | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Georgetown | #12 | WCC:Gonzaga | ||
| #4 | Air Force | #13 | MAC: Akron | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #3 | UCLA | #14 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| #6 | Providence | #11 | Louisville | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Michigan | #10 | Missouri | ||
| #2 | Memphis | #15 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | play-in: MEAC: Delaware State vs. SWAC:Jackson State | ||
| #8 | Georgia Tech | #9 | Nevada | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #5 | Arizona | #12 | A-10: Xavier | ||
| #4 | Marquette | #13 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Ohio State | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Villanova | #11 | Washington State | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #7 | Virginia Commonwealth | #10 | Syracuse | ||
| #2 | Duke | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #1 | Pittsburgh | #16 | OVC: Austin Peay | ||
| #8 | Missouri State | #9 | Illinois | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Maryland | #12 | Alabama | ||
| #4 | Oregon | #13 | Patriot: Holy Cross | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Michigan State | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Kentucky | #11 | Washington | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #7 | Virginia Tech | #10 | UNLV | ||
| #2 | Kansas | #15 | NORTHEAST: Robert Morris | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Texas A&M | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: East Tennessee State | ||
| #8 | Butler | #9 | Florida State | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #5 | Indiana | #12 | BYU | ||
| #4 | Notre Dame | #13 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #3 | Clemson | #14 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| #6 | Connecticut | #11 | Georgia | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | West Virginia | #10 | Oklahoma | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | BIG WEST: Cal State Fullerton | ||
| East plays West, South plays Midwest in Final Four | |||||
| Conferences with multiple bids: Big East (10), ACC (7), Big 10 (6), SEC (5), Pac-10 (5), Big 12 (4), Mountain West (3) | |||||
| Moved Down for placement requirements: Connecticut, Missouri State | |||||
| Moved Up for placement requirements: Maryland, West Virginia | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams In: Alabama, BYU, Washington, Georgia | |||||
| Last 4 At-Large Teams Out: Oklahoma State, LSU, Boston College, Tennessee | |||||
| Toughest Region: MidWest (St. Louis, MO) | |||||
| Easiest Region: East (East Rutherford, NJ) and West (San Jose, CA) | |||||
| Copyright 2007 MRISports.com | |||||
Posted by bmiraski at 4:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
January 23, 2007
MRI2006: Tournament Projection #1
Just thinking of posting this worries me. After last year's mess with Marquette, I can only imagine the craziness that this year's posting will bring out. First of all, remember, this is only through the games of January 21st. That means that all the losses that Duke has taken aren't in here. The losses that Oklahoma will take over the next two games after that point are not in here. Oklahoma State has yet to recover after a few tough losses, and the Missouri Valley is still an enigma that we are are trying to deal with.
Let me give you a different way to look at this projection, which will likely not jibe with any of the other projections will you will find on the Internet. Remember last year when I had George Mason as a 4 or 5 seed for most of the projections? Basically, the MRI was projecting that George Mason would behave as a #4 or #5 seed in the tournament based on how they had performed to date. That didn't mean the committee would honestly give them that seed (their actual seed was much lower), but it meant that they might surprise and perform to a #4 or #5 level. Now, it is always dependant on who they are slotted to play in the tournament. I didn't have them better than a North Carolina, or a Connecticut last season. So, in actuality, when the bracket came out, I had them going out in the second round. It didn't mean I didn't think they were still worthy of a #4 or #5. It just meant that I thought North Carolina was worthy of more like a #3 or #2 seed last season.
So, I know that won't quiet the critics, but I also know that the MRI managed to get 75% of the tournament games correct last season, which is more than most of the nation got right if ESPN is any indication. And picking round by round, well, that is an even better number. Just a thought.
With that said, here are the first round of tournament projections, and remember, that as of this posting, it is 3 weeks to the old.
| Teams proceeded by their conference names in all caps are the current MRI leaders of the teams remaining alive in those conferences projected to get one bid. | |||||
| East Region – East Rutherford, NJ | |||||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #1 | North Carolina | #16 | OVC: Morehead State | ||
| #8 | Arkansas | #9 | Illinois | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Marquette | #12 | A-10:Xavier | ||
| #4 | Air Force | #13 | WCC: Gonzaga | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Pittsburgh | #14 | IVY: Pennsylvania | ||
| #6 | Kentucky | #11 | Texas Tech | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #7 | Maryland | #10 | West Virginia | ||
| #2 | UCLA | #15 | MAAC: Marist | ||
| South Region – San Antonio, TX | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Florida | #16 | play-in: MEAC: Delaware State vs. SWAC:Jackson State | ||
| #8 | Butler | #9 | Syracuse | ||
| Sacramento, CA | |||||
| #5 | Arizona | #12 | Boston College | ||
| #4 | Michigan State | #13 | SOUTHERN: Davidson | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #3 | Kansas | #14 | AMERICA EAST: Vermont | ||
| #6 | Villanova | #11 | Washington State | ||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #7 | Missouri State | #10 | Tennessee | ||
| #2 | Clemson | #15 | BIG WEST: Long Beach State | ||
| West Region – San Jose, CA | |||||
| New Orleans, LA | |||||
| #1 | Texas A&M | #16 | ATLANTIC SUN: Belmont | ||
| #8 | Florida State | #9 | Virginia Commonwealth | ||
| Columbus, OH | |||||
| #5 | Michigan | #12 | SUN BELT: Western Kentucky | ||
| #4 | Connecticut | #13 | MAC: Akron | ||
| Buffalo, NY | |||||
| #3 | Ohio State | #14 | SOUTHLAND: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | ||
| #6 | Providence | #11 | UNLV | ||
| Winston-Salem, NC | |||||
| #7 | Alabama | #10 | Texas | ||
| #2 | Duke | #15 | MCC: Oral Roberts | ||
| Midwest Region – St. Louis, MO | |||||
| Lexington, KY | |||||
| #1 | Memphis | #16 | BIG SKY: Idaho State | ||
| #8 | Georgetown | #9 | Virginia Tech | ||
| Spokane, WA | |||||
| #5 | Indiana | #12 | Missouri | ||
| #4 | Oregon | #13 | BIG SOUTH: Winthrop | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #3 | Notre Dame | #14 | PATRIOT: Holy Cross | ||
| #6 | Georgia Tech | #11 | Nevada | ||
| Chicago, IL | |||||
| #7 | Oklahoma | #10 | LSU | ||
| #2 | Wisconsin | #15 | NORTHEAST: Robert Morr | ||