September 1, 2010
Heisman Watch 2010: 25 candidates or more? Try 5 at best
There are Heisman lists and then there are Heisman lists. MRISports has never been shy about having a long list, but it has never listed 25 players, even if it is a preseason list.
ESPN though has no qualms about this. The World Wide Leader decided to have 25 players on its Heisman Hype list, a list that apparently only appeared on the mobile website, as I couldn’t find it on the normal website. The list they chose to post there had just 20 players in a slideshow. Even better, the list was different.
So ESPN has apparently identified more than 25 players who they think might have a chance to be the best player in college football this season. The sad part is that they are dead wrong.
There won’t be 25 players who even have a sniff at the award. At best there are five players who even have a shot, and that is after Mark Ingram went down with his knee injury. (By the way, does anyone not believe in the Heisman jinx now? If you come back, you are destined to have something happen that derails your season.)
Here is the list of who the MRI will be watching as the season opens Thursday with the biggest drawback to their candidacy for the award.
The Contenders:
Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) - Mallett is likely the most polished quarterback in college football. He has the arm and the smarts to succeed in the NFL which doesn’t always lead to success. However, Mallett was smart enough to get out of Michigan when the writing was on the wall and he has placed himself in the best situation for his future. To start the season, I believe he may be the best candidate for the award, provided his team helps him. Demerit: Arkansas is one of those “On the Verge” teams. If they stumble early, or Mallett doesn’t perform against the better teams on the schedule (even in a loss), he can say goodbye to the award.
Terrelle Pryor (QB, Ohio State) - Pryor is the latest in the line of Ohio State quarterbacks that all basically look the same. That works in his favor because Troy Smith was able to win the award using that skill set. Pryor will need to be perfect to win the award, but just running through the Big Ten schedule should be enough to get him to New York. Demerit: Troy Smith won with the same skill set, and that was after an undefeated season that took Ohio State to the title game. Ohio State got embarassed in that game, which showed that Smith wasn’t as good as it appeared. That could stand in the way of the voters picking another Buckeye quarterback without some huge numbers.
DeMarco Murray (RB, Oklahoma) - In the mold of Adrian Peterson, Murray will be running all day for Oklahoma. Because Oklahoma will also be running for the title all season long, he will also get a lot of attention from the voters thanks to the miracle of television. Demerit: Murray hasn’t been the most sturdy of backs in his career, somewhat like Peterson. Look for an injury or two to derail this campaign.
Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) - Moore is supposed to lead the Broncos to the title game. Everyone is dreading that in the BCS era, saying that Boise couldn’t possibly compete if they were in another division. What they are really saying is that Moore will put up some stats against some less than stellar competition, and stats are what a lot of voters will base their decision on. Demerit: That Boise State after his name will cause a lot of people to steer clear. You have to go back to 1990 and a very different era and BYU team to find a winner who came from a conference outside the big six.
Jake Locker (QB, Washington) - If you listen to Mel Kiper, Jake Locker is a … well, lock, to succeed at the next level. He has been on a series of less than great teams in his career but that could change this season. If Washington can contend for the PAC-10 title, Locker will be in the running here. Demerit: Locker will be playing most of his games after everyone is either buzzed or asleep. That won’t help him very much outside of the West region.
Five others who have the best chance of displacing the true contenders (In alphabetical order): Matt Barkley (QB, USC), Noel Devine (RB, West Virginia), Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama), Jerrod Johnson (QB, Texas A&M), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB, Oregon State)
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:45 PM | Comments (0)
November 19, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 12
If Tim Tebow stays for a fourth year, and plays the way he is playing now, we will have our second repeat Heisman winner. I don’t see how it can’t happen.
Tebow personally rededicated himself after Florida’s one-point loss to Mississippi and it has shown in his performance – and his team’s – on the field.
There is a problem this year in his candidacy. His statistics are not eye-popping. Compared with the Big XII triumvirate, they are downright disappointing.
He is at least 1000 yards behind them passing, his touchdowns are 11 back of the nearest signal-caller, and he isn’t the leader in rushing.
In short, Tebow isn’t Superman this season.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 12"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:11 PM | Comments (0)
November 11, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 11
What do you know? The system quarterback is the one that most people think deserves to win the Heisman Trophy.
Hard to imagine that just a year ago, Colt Brennan didn’t get respect for his numbers. Under June Jones, Hawaii produced too many big-number passers for Brennan to be appreciated.
He still got votes, but he couldn’t beat Tim Tebow and his two-pronged attack.
Graham Harrell has almost reached the numbers that Brennan had last season, although he will have to have a heck of a year the rest of the way to match his own marks from last year.
It is amazing what being undefeated can do to change the perception of numbers and performance.
That is probably why Michael Crabtree is back in many so-called expert Heisman watch rankings recently.
Crabtree is fifth in receiving yards this season. He won’t even sniff at the 134 catches and 1962 yards he put up last year.
Crabtree has 18 touchdowns. It is doubtful that he will lead the country in scoring, even if he surpasses last season’s 22 scores.
Crabtree is a sophomore. We know a sophomore has only ever won once, and that was during a very special season.
We tend to generate a lot of hype for receivers when they get the majority of a quarterback’s throws in their direction. I still say that the myth of a receiver being a Heisman-worthy candidate is bunk.
You need the quarterback, who tends to do much more for the team, partially because they throw to other players and have to handle the ball every down. There is no way that his own receiver can outshine him.
You can say your receiver blocks on running plays. So do the linemen who tend to get zero respect as it is and many of them contribute much more each game than an individual wideout.
The way the game is played now, you would need the most extraordinary receiver in the history of the game to have a receiver win the award again, and even then, the player would need to contribute in a way outside of their receiving skills to be considered. They would have to return kicks almost every other game for touchdowns, they would need to play both ways for a good portion of the snaps.
They would need to change the way we think about the position – check that, they would need to change the way we think of a college football player.
Michael Crabtree is exciting. His fancy footwork on the sideline against Texas to win the game in the final minute was breathtaking.
But he is not that player.
Here is how I would rank the candidates on my ballot after Week 11:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 11"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 3:20 PM | Comments (0)
October 23, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 8
Texas, you get your wish this week. There is no longer any way that you can deny Colt McCoy the top spot in the race.
Just look at the record: Beat Oklahoma. Beat -- and beat up -- Missouri.
Need you say more?
I am not saying the road ahead will be easy for McCoy in any fashion. This week’s opponent, Oklahoma State, found a way to shut down Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tiger hasn’t been heard from since.
Can the Cowboys do the same to McCoy? Maybe.
And really no contender will be tested as much over the remainder of the season than McCoy. Three games remain against ranked opponents, including two in the top 10. Add in another ranked foe in the Big XII title game, and McCoy will be the most vetted Heisman candidate we have seen in years.
He faces a similar struggle to Tim Tebow last season. With a clear lead, all eyes were unfairly focused on every flaw that Tebow could expose in his play on the field.
McCoy doesn’t have the luxury of a field that is far behind him at this point. Even with the clear lead, there is no denying that others on the list have had brilliant seasons, seasons that are Heisman-worthy in themselves, just not as much as McCoy’s so far.
So, as we head into the final third of the season, get ready for the spotlight to shine brightly on our top candidate. The eyes of Texas are hoping that he doesn’t get burned.
Here is how I would rank the candidates on my ballot after Week 8:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 8"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 10:04 AM | Comments (0)
October 15, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 7
Texas fans are really going to dislike me this week. If it wasn’t bad enough that Texas won and still fell from the top spot in my computer rankings, their quarterback also did not take over the top spot in my Heisman ranking this week.
I still believe that Sam Bradford is the better quarterback so far this year.
Don’t get me wrong, Colt McCoy is doing a lot to help his team: he is a leader, he is efficient, he runs in addition to passing the ball.
Sam Bradford is just the arm that his entire team revolves around, and he wasn’t the reason for Oklahoma’s loss. Bradford did almost everything he could short of playing on defense to try and get his team the victory.
It just didn’t work this time.
Having watched Bradford over the past two years, I am sure he would say he would rather win the championship than an individual award. But holding that trophy can sure change things quickly.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 7"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:03 AM | Comments (0)
October 8, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 6
Why should there be any confusion about why the Big XII is dominating almost every Heisman trophy list out there?
There shouldn’t be. The Big XII has shown itself to be the top conference so far this season. That early lead by the SEC in the chase for that honor, it’s gone.
When your conference is flying high, usually the signal callers get a great deal of publicity, and in the Big XII’s case it is definitely for good reason.
Half of the Big XII quarterbacks are in the top 12 rated passers in the country. Half! And they have two more in the top 20.
The conference’s passers dominant the highlight films on ESPN and those other sports networks.
The names of the game have become Colt, Chase and Sam, and they have fulfilled every expectation of them prior to and during this season.
The biggest test of two of them will come this weekend as Colt and Sam face over control of the Red River.
With their arms, this will be a Shootout, name changes in the rivalry notwithstanding.
And then there is Chase on the side, watching for how he can succeed against Texas a week from now, after he dispenses with Oklahoma State this week. If only the rotation was such that he would get to face the Sooners this year.
With all this air power, it begs the question: What happened to the running game in college football?
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 6"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:50 AM | Comments (0)
October 1, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 5
The spread offense has transformed the Big XII into a quarterback machine, and the results are obvious based on what you will find at the top of most Heisman lists this week.
The triumvirate of Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy could rewrite the history of the Heisman Trophy if they can keep this up.
Just picture the stage in New York if there is only a single conference represented.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 5"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:07 PM | Comments (0)
September 24, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 4
After a short vacation, much like most top teams take for the first third of their seasons, I am back and refreshed. With the insight I gained over my little vacation, I have something to announce.
The title defense is over.
Sorry, Tim Tebow. It is just not going to happen this year. So go call Archie Griffin and wish him well. Send him some champagne with the money that you haven’t yet earned from an agent or a pro team.
Yes, your talents weren’t needed against the Tennessee Vols, but you don’t get away with a cheap performance against a conference foe in this race, at least not this season. Last year was a special year, when a soft week could be tolerated.
This year is a different ball game with too many contenders turning in big games when they count.
So, at the top of the heap is one of those top players, Chase Daniel, who didn’t need a huge performance against Buffalo but still produced one, and that is enough in the crowded field to move to the top.
He will have to keep pushing in what looks like it will be a battle of quarterbacks all year long. I don’t expect any of the current rushing leaders to actually make it to New York at this point unless someone turns in ridiculous numbers in the final eight games this year.
Here is how I would rank the candidates on my ballot after Week 4.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 4"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 8:07 AM | Comments (0)
September 10, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 2
The problem with the early season schedule is that no one plays anyone. Look at the marquis games last week…
Oh wait, there weren’t any. Sure Miami and Florida is a rivalry, but you can’t seriously have thought that the Hurricanes were going to do anything other than what they managed – Lose.
So, evaluating Heisman performances in week two becomes a little more difficult because the quality of opponents is still lacking for a number of players.
More interesting this week might have been the impact of injuries on the standings. Without Chris Wells, Ohio State looked almost pedestrian against Ohio U. That is not a good sign for them going into a huge game against USC this weekend. It also isn’t a great sign for Wells’ Heisman hopes as losing a week, especially against a weak opponent can hurt the numbers so that they are no longer eye-popping.
Yet, you have to wonder how much the “valuable” vote will go up given that Ohio State looks like a totally different team without him.
The other injury that was worth watching was Jeremy Maclin of Missouri. While Maclin played, he suffered in that Missouri used too many weapons in their trouncing of Southeast Missouri State. Maclin isn’t going to handle the ball on every play, or most plays, and over time, that will certainly weigh on his hope for the pose, as it does in my rankings this week.
The picture is still gray, but here is how I would rank the candidates on my ballot after Week 2.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 -- Week 2"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:29 PM | Comments (0)
September 3, 2008
Heisman Watch 2008-9 - Week 1
Sure it is only one week into the season, but one week is enough most time to get your name noticed for later in the season when the voting really counts.
The leader to start the season has to be Tim Tebow. There will be some changes in the Florida offense this season, making Tebow less of a one-man show, but there is no disputing the talent that he will bring to the field. So how do you find competition for the Heisman? The two that challenged last season – Darren McFadden and Dennis Dixon – are on to the pros.
Start with Chase Daniel, who along with Jeremy Maclin, dismantled Illinois in week one. That should be enough of a start to put a little bit of a fire under Tebow. And Maclin is not to be forgotten, although an early injury may have him hurting as weeks go on. Just look at what injuries did to chances for Steve Slaton, Mike Hart and Dixon a year ago.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2008-9 - Week 1"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:54 PM | Comments (0)
December 4, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Final Ballot
It is very interesting that despite the fan vote being, in all likelihood, strongly in Tim Tebow's favor, the press vote will not be. There are those in the press who won't vote for Tebow because he is a sophomore, and they think there is no way that a sophomore could be the best player.
There are also those who won't vote for him #1 because they haven't seen him play. I know that seems strange in the world we live in with games on television all the time, all season. It is hard to not have your games on the air. But remember, that a lot of these voters are writers, covering a single team, seeing sometimes a single conference all season long. They don't have the ability to sit on their couch and watch 20 games in a weekend.
This is the primary reason why the balloting is broken into the regions like it is. In the past, it would be hard for someone from a region like the West to see all the games in the SEC. They did not want the balloting in the West to unduly influence the final vote, so it was only a single region with the same number of writers as everywhere else.
I don't believe it should be an excuse, but a lot of writers say that what they see in person is more important than what they see on television. Because Florida has been out of the National Championship race for quite a while, they haven't been the "draw" game. There hasn't been the great influx of journalists into Gainesville this season to watch Tebow play. Most have only seen him on the highlights, and even though the numbers and the highlights are staggering, they aren't sold.
I have heard it on podcasts, and I have heard it on television. You are going to see a much closer vote, thanks to Darren McFadden's final game, than you would have if Florida were in the BCS games, or the hunt for the title. In the end, I think the sentiment still is with Tebow (and the Heisman Pundit agrees, which is almost a lock for the Gator QB).
Here is how I see my rankings, if I had a vote (remember, the ballot only allows you to list three names):
- Tim Tebow (QB Florida) - 68.5%, 3132 yds, 29 TD, 6 INT, 838 yds rush, 22 TD
- Dennis Dixon (QB Oregon) - 67.7%, 2136 yds, 20 TD, 4 INT, 583 yds rush, 9 TD
- Pat White (QB West Virginia) - 68.0%, 1548 yds, 12 TD, 4 INT, 1185 yds rush, 14 TD
Others Receiving Consideration, in order:
Darren McFadden, Chase Daniel, Colt Brennan, Michael Hart, Todd Reesing, Kevin Smith, Andre Woodson
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:30 PM | Comments (0)
November 27, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 13
Tim Tebow has pretty much done it all, and now just has to sit back and relax.
He should have the Heisman Trophy in his back pocket. Crushing rival Florida State makes that happen. Playing part of the game with a broken hand makes that happen. Now, the injury might be something to worry about in the long term, but it shouldn't hamper him from hoisting the Heisman Trophy.
I would like to say that a huge game by Pat White could change that. It won't
I would like to say that a huge game and an upset win by Chase Daniel and Missouri in the Big XII championship would change that. It won't, even if they voters try to boycott a sophomore.
Tim Tebow, congrats.
Given that I am handing him the trophy, I guess we have to look at how I would rank the others in the mix. Here is how that looks:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 13"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:00 PM | Comments (0)
November 21, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 12
I hate injuries. Yes, I know I said that before in this spot, but I have to repeat myself. Mike Hart should have been more dominant over his last 6 games as a senior, and should have won this award. He was the first casualty.
Now, Dennis Dixon. Was there any doubt that this kid was the most valuable player to his team? Whenever he left a game, they looked like their dog had been shot. And he looked like he had been shot in the leg, tearing his ACL. Let's just hope he can recover and do something with all of the talent that he has, although I suspect he would be confined to Antwaan Randle-El status in the NFL.
And so we have to look at history for this year's award. No player has ever rushed for and passed for 20 touchdowns each during a season. No sophomore has ever won the Heisman trophy.
Well, this year saw a lot of things that have never happened before and was a year with more upsets than any anyone can remember.
Tim Tebow, welcome to the top rung of the ladder. Yes, you somewhat deserved it all season, but given the way these things go, you weren't going to get it...until now.
Now, don't screw it up against Florida State.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 12"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:12 AM | Comments (0)
November 6, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 10
One man kills his chances, one man comes back into the running. Leave it to Steve Spurrier to make a mess of the Heisman race. His defense's collapse against Arkansas for yet another year has allowed Darren McFadden to climb from obscurity and back onto the leader board.
Unlike half of the country, I am not yet ready to say that McFadden has done what it takes to be #2 or #3. Yes, he had a monster game, half of a record setting contest, but he has also had some games which smell. Even worse, some of those games came when his team needed him most.
With McFadden back, Matt Ryan is gone. Out of the past 120 minutes of football, Ryan has had only 3 stellar minutes. That was enough to have him at #2 on my list last week. However, three interceptions, combined with the two against Virginia Tech before he found himself means it is sayonara time. I am so down on Ryan that he has fallen to my "hype"-only list. Of course, McFadden was there prior to this week, and Chase Daniel is pulling himself back into the public eye.
Climbing back up this week was Tim Tebow, who set a rushing record for quarterbacks in the SEC with two more touchdowns this week. Add the three from his arm and you have a nice weekend.
Nice but not nice enough to unseat Dennis Dixon. Dixon threw for four touchdowns, and beat a superior opponent in Arizona State. Oregon is also in a much better position in terms of team which in a year like this, will be a huge factor in the race for the Heisman.
Here is how I would rank the candidates on my ballot after Week 10.
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Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:00 PM | Comments (0)
October 30, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 9
Do you celebrate a full game or just 3 minutes? That is what a lot of voters will be debating this week as they shuffle their ballot around again. They will be looking at Dennis Dixon's performance leading Oregon over USC this past weekend and Matt Ryan's final three minutes against Virginia Tech. In the process, they will be trying to ignore the pitiful 57 minutes that Ryan had before he became a hero.
As I mentioned in my "AP" Ballot for the week, I lean towards crediting a performance over an entire game versus just a few minutes of brilliance. That doesn't mean that I didn't move Ryan up my list. I have him at #2 now.
But it does mean that I have Dennis Dixon at #1. Yes, I am shredding any attempt to say I have East Coast bias and I am putting the man who has honestly been every bit impressive since I first saw him against Michigan. Keep in mind that Dixon was still very good in the game that his team lost against Cal. The Ducks just fumbled away the game at the end. They should have tied and went to overtime. Dixon would have won that game if his team had had another chance. Sure, Dixon had a couple of picks in that game late, but I would rather have the ball in his hands than anyone else in the nation right now.
Say goodbye to Mike Hart, who sat out for the second straight week. I think the Wolverines might have been resting him for their game against Michigan State coming up, always a tough test, but it may have killed any hope he had as the best runner in the nation for the award.
Because I only list 5 players, say hello to Pat White, who himself has recovered from injury to lead the West Virginia Mountaineers into talk again for the title race. He may not put up the eye catching numbers, but it is clear his presence more than any other is needed on the field for West Virginia. It was his injury during the South Florida game which may have been the difference there, and it is his return and leadership which is winning games now.
Here is how I handicap the race coming out of Week 9.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 9"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 5:10 PM | Comments (0)
October 24, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 8
In case you missed it, Michael Hart sat out of Michigan's game with Illinois, and Michigan needed Illinois to totally collapse in order to win the game. That sort of shows how important Hart is to the Michigan team. However, just being missed isn't enough to keep Hart in the top spot in the Heisman race.
And so you have to look at the biggest game from the weekend. Well, at least the biggest game in a league that matters. Tim Tebow and Andre Woodson had a massive shootout in the game between Florida and Kentucky, with Tebow barely coming out on top. The loss does give Kentucky two defeats now, and one of those was totally on Woodson because of turnovers. This one was not. While two losses is normally the end of a Heisman campaign, this season seems to be proving the opposite as most of the contenders will have two losses on their resume.
And resume is what has Tim Tebow in the top spot. Another brilliant game from the sophomore (oh, you didn't remember that? He might just make history here, especially when Florida is suddenly looking at a chance to be in Atlanta for the SEC Championship). In no way can you pin any of Florida's losses on Tebow's play (as with Hart, but Tebow is yet to miss a game). And most of their success is all on his back as it appears they still can't get a running back to consistently produce as well as him.
So, Tim Tebow, welcome to the lead dog spot. Too bad that most of the previous holders of this spot just want to go back to seeing the scenery never change.
Here is how I have the main contenders going into this week's games:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 8"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:20 PM | Comments (0)
October 17, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 7
43 Yards. That is what Darren McFadden's big chance to put the Heisman pack far back in the rear view mirror came to. Just 43 yards.
And so, here is the mess we figured was coming last week.
How do I resolve the mess? I put the guy I felt should probably have been #1 last week in that position. Mike Hart, welcome to the front of the chase. Although this means you will probably have a massive blowout in your ACL this week, at least you were #1 in something.
Now, save the emails (not that anyone sends them). I know you are going to say that I just replaced someone on a 3-3 team with more hype with someone on a 5-2 team who lost one of the biggest upsets in the history of college football.
Keep in mind that Michigan's two losses at the beginning of the year were not the results of Mike Hart's play. Hart still put up good numbers. His defense continued to let him down time and again. And neither of those losses will hurt him either in the long run. Why? Because they didn't come in the Big Ten.
Michigan, yes, that same Mountaineer-bruised Michigan, is in 1st place in the conference. Granted, the Big Ten is the 5th best conference this year according to the MRI, but they are still leading it, along with Ohio State. So, while it didn't look that way at the beginning of the season, the final week of the year could mean something after all. Win, and Michigan is in a BCS game, albeit, the Rose Bowl, and not the National Championship. Lose, and they still finished 2nd in the Big Ten... that is assuming that they win all of the rest of their games, something that is entirely possible
The biggest test, other than Ohio State, could come this week against Illinois. Michigan has struggled against the spread offense, and that could mean trouble against Ron Zook. Maybe they can hope for bad weather like last week to slow down the Illini.
So, now that you know who is #1, let's look at the rest of my list:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 7"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 4:40 PM | Comments (0)
October 9, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 6
With USC's upset by Stanford, you can say goodbye to John David Booty.
With Kentucky's loss to South Carolina, mostly because of Andre Woodson's turnovers, you can almost say goodbye to his chances. He at least had done something for his candidacy prior to his bad game, and he has two more crucial games for his team still coming.
Colt Brennan keeps having to leave games with injuries. Brian Brohm's team can't seem to win them.
No, this isn't the Heisman race we expected. And so we end up with a conglomeration of candidates and I am not sure I could stand behind most of them and give you a solid reason why they should be the winner.
And so, I will go with the default of moving up my #2 pick from last week, even though he played the weakest team of all the players on this list in his Saturday game. Yes, Darren McFadden returns to the top of the mountain, but it wasn't an easy choice.
Will still half the season to play, that choice may get harder.
Here is how I rank the contenders going into Week 7 of the season:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 6"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 6:35 PM | Comments (1)
October 4, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 5
So, four weeks after the last Heisman Watch, I thought it was time to bring it back. This is especially important since one of the most intriguing candidates for the trophy is playing tonight in the person of Andre Woodson.
Yes, the quarterback for the Kentucky Wildcats is getting some serious consideration in the media. It is funny that I laughed when people were picking him at the beginning of the season as their sleeper pick. Now it looks like that sleeper has a real shot, especially with the way that everything has been going in terms of actual game results.
Now the Heisman guru at Heisman Pundit doesn't seem to think that Woodson has a real chance, especially as Woodson and Kentucky's schedule gets considerably harder over the next few weeks. But for now, Woodson looks to be the best quarterback in the country. A few really strong games even in a losing effort could almost cement Woodson's chances to be in New York
Here is a look at the way I would have the main contenders ranked:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 5"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:35 PM | Comments (0)
September 3, 2007
Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 1
You can't project the Heisman out of the first week of games. Although, last year, I vaulted Troy Smith from third in my pre-season poll to #1 after his first week. So, maybe the guy I put on top after Week 1 will win it.
But there are a lot of games remaining. In my Top 10 last year were Drew Tate, Garrett Wolfe, Kenny Irons, Calvin Johnson, and Ted Ginn. None of those guys ended up with a trip to New York. So being on the watch early doesn't actually mean anything.
Still, dreams can be crushed after week 1. Just look at Marshawn Lynch's lackluster game against Tennessee as proof. The remainder of his season should have had him at least in contention or in the discussion. Nothing is a given in this race.
Time to look at this week's watch board and try to sort the whole thing out.
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2007-8, Week 1"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 9:00 PM | Comments (0)
November 22, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 12
So, here is the most amazing thing about the game on Saturday. Throughout Troy Smith's amazing performance, the announcers, be it Kirk Herbstreit, Bonnie Bernstein, or anyone, were unwilling to say that they thought that Smith had the Heisman wrapped up.
In fact, Bernstein, reporting from the sideline in the middle of the third quarter, believed that he needed to "step up his game" in order to still be the front runner. This was after Smith had a pass intercepted which was tipped up into the air by the receiver and caught by a lineman coming over to help with what he thought would have been a tackle. The interception, while coming on a pass that looked forced, was not his fault.
Meanwhile, in South Bend, the pass that Brady Quinn threw which was intercepted did not get tipped in the air, was thrown without a receiver in the area, and was caught cleanly by an Army linebacker.
If you compare the two performances, I think you can forgive Smith's interception a little quicker than Quinn's. Of course, Quinn rebounded from the shaky start he had against the Black Knights to win the game handily. Smith needed an amazing performance all game long to hold off what is still the #2 team in the country in the eyes of many.
The truth is, the people running the Heisman should just think about booking one ticket because that is how over the race for the trophy is at this point. In order to be fair, they will put on a show. They will invite three people to New York, much like last season. But we all know that the award is going home to Columbus after the ceremony.
Troy Smith won the Heisman on Saturday, in a game 95% of the college football nation was watching. The other five percent was either at the Notre Dame game, or lives in Alabama.
Congratulations to Troy Smith,
After watching the contenders on Saturday, here is who I think will be coming to New York, other than Smith:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 12"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:30 AM | Comments (0)
November 14, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 11
Who was it that said they wanted to take away the lead in this race from Troy Smith because of the Illinois game? It wasn't me, that is for sure. Smith showed us all why he is still leading this race on Saturday, torching the Northwestern secondary for four touchdowns.
On a week which saw a lot of the leading candidates go down, Smith was again brilliant. He now just has to beat Michigan or not implode against them to take home the trophy.
While there is still talk that a Notre Dame victory over USC would give the award to Brady Quinn, I think Smith has done enough to this point in the season to hold onto the lead even though his last game will be this weekend. Of course, if Notre Dame does beat USC, there is a chance, given the current BCS standings, that we will see the Fighting Irish in the Championship game against the winner of Ohio State and Michigan. And if Quinn does steal the award, and Smith and the Buckeyes take care of business, we could have a repeat of last season when we saw Vince Young give the voters a bad taste in their mouths.
No great secret here, I am favoring Smith for another week in the standings, especially after his great performance against Northwestern. Other than a strange voice in the back of my head which says I should say something more here about freshman winning the award, or even sophomores getting their due, I will leave it at that.
Here is how I would rank all the contenders coming out of Week 11:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 11"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)
November 8, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 10
I am not Dennis Dodd, and I am not going to overreact to Colt McCoy's success over his first season in the league. Dodd places McCoy at his #2 position in the Heisman race this week and admonishes Mack Brown for not supporting his young signal caller for the award.
I agree with Mack Brown though. While McCoy has been impressive, I don't know how you could name him as the best player in the nation this year. I think last week when I touted the glories of Troy Smith, I made a very important point.
Smith comes at you with his arm and his legs. That is a pretty powerful combination, much like a certain quarterback that was at Texas last season. That quarterback whose record for passing touchdowns that McCoy broke last weekend.
That quarterback had one thing that McCoy doesn't have and that is the ability to get away and score with his legs. McCoy has one rushing touchdown this season.
Vince Young had 12 and made defenses adjust to account for his ability to run the football, much like Troy Smith does.
Let's see McCoy mature a little more before we call him the best player in the game, or consider him for the Heisman. I am not saying that the award should be restricted to only upperclassmen (I would have voted for Adrian Peterson two years ago), but I do think that when there is an upperclassman that changes the game with his arm and his legs, he needs to be considered above the freshman who does it.
Agree with me or not, that is just the way I feel.
A short Heisman watch this week, because of its tardiness. I promise to be back to normal next week.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 10:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 10"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:00 PM | Comments (0)
October 31, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 9
Another week has gone by, and with two of my leading candidates for the award having the week off, you are going to see something that looks very familiar. In fact, so familiar that everything looks the same from last week. For the first week in a while, there has been no change at the top of the Heisman Watch.
This is partially because all of the leading contenders for the award either won, and won well, or they had the week to rest for some big games which are on the horizon.
Let's say this much. If you don't believe that Troy Smith is the best player in college football at this point, you might have missed the boat as we were going along. Smith has not only transformed himself this year into a great passer, he has also molded his game as the season went along to take full advantage of the opportunities presented him.
What do I mean by this?
Going the season, Smith was known as the mobile quarterback from Ohio State. Last year, Smith ran for 611 yards and 11 touchdowns. Everyone looked at him as "Michael Vick-lite". It isn't a bad comparison, but the downside was that people overlooked his strong passing statistics for the 2005 season as a result.
Therefore, the first instinct for defenses this season was to make sure that Smith couldn't run. That would be fine, if Smith hadn't been able to throw the ball as well as he did. He began the year standing in the pocket and tearing up defenses designed to keep him still by hitting every receiver on his team. Through the first three games, Smith had 770 yards passing, and seven touchdowns, with no interceptions, and that includes a game against the strong defensive backs of Texas.
Once teams remembered that Smith could pass the ball, their focus shifted and they had to account for all the passing in the Ohio State offense. That left open the running game for the Buckeyes and gave Smith a chance to once again use his legs. With the short season left for Ohio State before what they are hoping is a trip to the National Championship game, Smith may not have a chance to match last year's stats on the ground. But recently, Smith has been a great complement to Antonio Pittman as a running threat, averaging seven yards per carry and also reaching the end zone on the ground for the first time this season.
Smith has worked at improving the quarterback half of the mobile quarterback title. That is the primary reason that this season, he is the leader to take home the statue. With two weeks still remaining before Michigan, we will have to wait to see what he does against one of the best front lines and overall defenses in the nation. Until then, we get the pleasure of watching him compete against Illinois and Northwestern, and seeing him have two more chances to remind us just how much better Smith has been this year than every other player in the game.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 9:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 9"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 1:30 PM | Comments (0)
October 24, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 8
When the final ballots were totalled last season, Ohio State linebacker AJ Hawk, finished sixth. It isn't like it mattered. The award was never more than a three horse race, and almost the entire country had ceded the trophy to Reggie Bush after the second or third game of the season. Never mind that his quarterback Matt Leinart had a better season than him, or that Vince Young passed both of them by. The country was taken in by the little back from USC.
But AJ Hawk even making the Top 10 was important. He impressed 26 voters enough that they felt alright knocking one of the three front runners down at least one notch. For some reason though, defensive players, like Hawk, normally have trouble convincing the voters to place them anywhere on the ballot.
There has only been one primarily defensive player in history to take home the award. In 1997, Charles Woodson, a defensive back for the Michigan Wolverines finished first in the voting. Woodson was the leader of a Michigan defense that led almost every statistical category that season, surrendering only 98 points in 12 games that season. Woodson, and the rest of the defensive backfield, gave up only 4 passing touchdowns all season and Woodson had 7 interceptions to his credit. The Heisman winner also returned kicks for the Wolverines and played on offense some that season, but only after practically having to beg head coach Lloyd Carr for the chance
A defensive player winning the Heisman is comparable to a starting pitcher trying to win the MVP award in baseball. The voters give less credit to a player who only goes out to play once every five games. They would rather give the award to an everyday player. In baseball, though, you can make the argument for the number of games that a player participates in. In football, the defense is out on the field as much and sometimes more than the offense. So why is it that a defensive player can't be considered the best player in the country?
About the only reason you can give to why the award almost always goes to offensive players is that they have the opportunity to have their hands on the ball most often, and showcase their talents. Quarterbacks handle the ball almost every snap their team is on the field. Running backs are key to ball control and in some cases touch the ball more than the quarterback throws. Receivers are third in line, and almost have to be huge kick return threats to get a chance at the award. It appears in the face of that, a defensive player has almost no chance unless they lead the country in interceptions by such a wide margin that it almost seems like he is suiting up for the other team.
The truth is that game planning against a defensive player, much like a receiver, is much easier than against a running back or quarterback. The game plan itself can remove a great player from the game. Take, for instance, one of the most explosive defensive lineman in the Big Ten, Purdue's Anthony Spencer. Anyone who has watched him over the course of the season has seen Spencer put up some impressive numbers. He is among the national leaders in tackles for loss and in sacks with seven. Add in three forced fumbles, and a blocked kick, and you have a resume most lineman would be very happy to have. However, he was almost completely shut down on Saturday against Wisconsin. The reason? The Badgers spent most of the day tracking Spencer with offensive lineman Joe Thomas, a player almost certain to be a high draft pick in the NFL next season. Thomas was able to keep Spencer just a step away from quarterback John Stocco all afternoon, which helped buy enough time to take advantage of the young Purdue defensive backs. A small adjustment in the game plan was all it took to change the very nature of the game on the front line, and slow down one of the best lineman in the game.
Only two defensive players other than Woodson have finished in the top five in voting over the last 15 years, and none of those was close to challenging for the trophy. This season, despite top names on defense like Paul Posluszny at Penn State, Aaron Ross at Texas, Daymeion Hughes at Cal, and LaMarr Woodley at Michigan, it is unlikely we will see any defensive players even invited to New York for the presentation. If I had a guess at the best chance to even crack the top ten in voting, it would be Woodley. He, like Spencer, is among the national leaders in tackles for a loss and quarterback sacks and has been much harder to shut down. Plus, the Michigan defense has been very good this season, surrendering less than 300 rushing yards total over their first eight games, and they are among the leaders in total defense and turnovers. You would almost have to recognize the very good captain of that squad as one of the top players in the game.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 8:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 8"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)
October 17, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 7
With almost half the season left to play, it is a little presumptuous to say that the race for the Heisman is over, but the competition took a huge blow on Saturday.
When Adrian Peterson landed in the end zone after his 53 yard run against Iowa State, his collar bone, and his chances to win the award gave way. There was no doubt that Adrian Peterson was among the top candidates, and while most experts have Troy Smith in the lead, Peterson was in the first or second spot on most ballots. In most years, there would be a number of players stepping into Peterson's shoes, ready to move into second place. However, this week's games may have made it tougher than ever to call who is #2.
The dark horse in the race, Garrett Wolfe, had been putting up record chasing numbers, giving him the best shot to be that contender. Not so much against Western Michigan on Saturday. Wolfe managed only 25 yards against a team which had been giving up an average of over 100 yards on the ground. The Broncos defense was all over Wolfe and quarterback Phil Horvath, making Horvath have to use his arm to beat them. Horvath couldn't do enough through the air to get the Huskies the win, and Wolfe chances at the statue took a major hit in the loss.
So, I guess this is the call out across the nation for someone, anyone, to step up and show you can challenge for the lead in this race. Otherwise, unless Troy Smith implodes, this award will be his. There is no doubt in my mind at this point.
With over half the season gone, it has become time to narrow down the field for the Heisman Watch. I will still list a number of players whom I considered, but only 6 will be ranked each week This will all lead to what I hope should be my final vote list in the last week of the season, with only five players.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 7:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 7"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)
October 10, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 6
I thought this week would solve a lot of issues with the award, and I was right. There were so many big games in the SEC, that the jumble would have to end with those quarterbacks.
It did end, only the quarterback that I thought would be on top isn't. Instead, it is Erik Ainge, the quarterback that I maligned early in the season, that is taking over the mantle as the best passer in the SEC.
But, I have to make this declaration with a caveat. Chris Leak has had the award pulled away from him by his teammate. Tim Tebow, getting some plays here and there so far this season, was a huge part of the Gator win against LSU. I am not saying that putting Tebow into the game was a bad thing. In fact, I think that Urban Meyer did a good job of confusing the defense this week with Tebow.
In the previous games, Tebow came in at crucial times to run the ball. And for part of the game on Saturday, that is all he did when he appeared. And then he did something no one expected him to do: Pass. Tebow threw for two touchdowns, and no one had any idea how to defend against it, because all they had seen him do all year, when it mattered, was run. There is barely any tape of Tebow throwing the ball. You can't game plan against someone who has only thrown the ball a dozen times on the season.
Now, granted, Tebow's first touchdown pass was a bit of a gimmick play, jumping into the air and double pumping before tossing to the tight end. But, it was the creativity in the offense that allowed Florida to come away with a great victory.
It is too bad that the creativity will cost Chris Leak a chance at the Heisman. He became a footnote in the game on a day when Tebow was responsible for three Gator touchdowns. As a result, Leak falls out of the Top 10 this week. It might be a little harsh, but given what happened on Saturday, I can't see where else to put him on this list.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 6:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 6"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)
October 3, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 5
Raise your hand if you think you know who should win the Heisman. I could poll fifty of the readers and I guarantee that I could get at least five different answers, and possibly more. The week that just passed did very little to help sort out the race. So many of the leading contenders put big numbers on the board, some helped by their opponents, but almost all did it based on the talent they possess.
Therefore, it strikes me as funny that last week, when posting my Heisman Watch, I actually got a little flack about my choices. The funny thing was that most of the flack was directed at my placement of Brady Quinn. I had him fourth last week, and I think that was fair, considering that many of the leading publications out there didn't have him any higher than 5th. Based on his performance for most of the Michigan State game, could you blame anyone? That was two weeks in a row that Quinn played less than perfectly while others excelled. So I didn't understand the commentary around Quinn, especially since I took most of this space talking about how his statistics don't stack up when you compare them head to head with all of the other leading quarterbacks.
More bizarre? Being criticized for leaving Dwayne Jarrett off the list. I have repeatedly talked about how receivers need to do so much more than catch passes to get a look for the Heisman. So, why should I put Jarrett on the list. Even if he had played this past week, he wouldn't have been among the leaders in receiving yards or touchdowns in the nation. Where would he fit on this list then? And he was hurt during the game against Arizona before last week's ratings came out. So, why should I carry a hurt player on this list. I didn't keep Tate around when he missed a game. Knowing that Jarrett would be out for at least two weeks and maybe as many as four, I think his absence was quite justified.
So, now, having said all that, welcome to the expanded edition of the Heisman Watch. Expanded edition? Yes, because while with all good intentions, I was going to cut a few players off this week, there was just no way to do it. Therefore, the tough decisions will come after this week. This week, you get 11 players in the Top 10, and more players added to the Outside Chance list, though anyone appearing there, their chances are very dicey.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 5:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 5"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:45 PM | Comments (1)
September 26, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 4
As I looked at the statistics from the games and thought about what I had seen from Saturday afternoon and evening, a thought struck me. The Heisman Hype has awesome power.
You may be thinking that this was a given. However, let me throw you an example. Not to take anything away from Brady Quinn's performance on Saturday night, but if you just go by pure statistics, Quinn should have no business being in the Heisman race. You may be thinking that is crazy, but I can prove it to you.
Pick a number in your head where Quinn is in quarterback rating in Division 1-A. You have it? Ok.
If you have anything above 40, you are wrong. How is that for shocking? Quinn is no better than the 43rd best passer in the league by quarterback rating at this point in the season.
"Well he throws for a lot of yards," you are thinking. "That must count for something." Sure it does. He is sixth overall, but that comes because he throws the ball more than all but 3 quarterbacks in the league. That leaves him 59th in yards per passing attempt, not a stat that stands out. And on top of that, we have always in years past dismissed quarterbacks like a Tommy Chang at Hawaii, or anyone at Texas Tech for that matter, because we said their numbers were a product of the system. What is to say that Quinn is not a product of the new Notre Dame Charlie Weis system and that the only real number that means anything in terms of his stats is the yards per attempt?
Quinn is only one touchdown pass behind the leaders, and has only thrown four interceptions, but overall, his numbers don't stack up near the top. And that is where the hype around him and his on-field leadership abilities are going to have to carry the Golden Boy to the award if he still hopes to win.
His comeback on Saturday night will go a long way towards making that happen, but he does not move all the way to the top after this week. He is firmly in the top tier after his performance though.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 4:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 4"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)
September 19, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 3
Let's be honest. If you haven't made an impression by Week 3 of the season, you aren't winning this award. Using that criteria, I have narrowed my official list down to 13 names (including one which I had previously dropped from the list). Three players lost their shot permanently this week.
Well, maybe I should say semi-permanently considering that I brought back Chad Henne to the list this week. I know, I know. He looked fairly average in his first two games this year, but his overall numbers are what is keeping him in the running right now. That, and his amazing performance against Notre Dame when he looked like a different player out there on the field. That was the Henne that everyone was expecting to see for the last two years plus two games, and he finally arrived in a big time way.
That said, Mr. Henne didn't make the top 10, since it was only one game. His is in Heisman Watch list purgatory, hanging out with Erik Ainge and JaMarcus Russell, two quarterbacks of losing teams who until this week sure looked like they could make a statement in the Heisman race.
And I am sure everyone is anxious to know where the Mighty Quinn is sitting this week. Brady, he of the three interceptions, feel to #5 behind the strong performances of three running backs and another solid week by Troy Smith.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 3:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 3"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)
September 12, 2006
Heisman Watch - Week 2
You could see that some off weeks by the Heisman favorites to open the season was on their minds during their second week contests. Brady Quinn stepped up strong. So did Adrian Peterson and Michael Hart. It was a matter of keeping the momentum strong for others. Troy Smith led his team over the then #2 Texas in impressive fashion, using the speed of his receivers against the Longhorns' slower secondary to pull out not only a victory big big numbers again.
Looking further down the list, some dark horses are very much starting to emerge. Garrett Wolfe doesn't look like he is going away, and Erik Ainge, who no one was discussing pre-season, is putting up huge numbers. His performance against Cal was enough to get him on the watch list. Now, with the close win over Air Force, he is firmly planted in the second five. A nice game against Florida this week, and we might be talking Top 5.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 2:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Week 2"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)
September 5, 2006
Heisman Watch 2006 - Week 1
If you want to have any shot of winning the Heisman Trophy, you have to start hard out of the gate. Most teams make it easy on their players, scheduling "gimmee" games early in the season, allowing their players to rack up some impressive statistics early, even if they do come against teams that are less than impressive. The first week of this season was no different for the most part. Teams like West Virginia and Iowa placed their players into games where the numbers were coming early and often.
This year though, a few teams didn't go so easy on their players. Notre Dame went against giant killer Georgia Tech, and Cal immediately went on the road against Tennessee and ran into a buzz saw. As a result, any numbers put up by players in those games are even more impressive.
The pre-season favorite, Brady Quinn looked fairly average until the second half, which hurts him for this week's ratings. It will be interesting to see if this was a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come for Notre Dame.
After watching all the top performers for the week, here is how I would rank the contenders coming out of Week 1:
Continue reading "Heisman Watch 2006 - Week 1"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 7:00 AM | Comments (1)
August 31, 2006
Heisman Watch - Pre-Season
I have a love/hate relationship with the Heisman Trophy. I often feel that the criteria for the award are flawed. That is because there are no criteria. The award just goes to the Best Player in College Football. It isn't the Most Valuable Player. It isn't the player with necessarily the best statistics. It is just some intangible quality which correlates to "The Best".
I think this has been morphed through increased media exposure into a "Most Popular" award, which totally goes against the true spirit of the trophy. The biggest issue may be that certain networks have too much influence on who receives the award. Obviously, when the bulk of the games that include the top contenders for the award are controlled by one media outlet, they are going to have a say in who wins the award. This isn't necessarily what they say about the players, but rather, the number of times those players are shown on television. If USC hadn't been on ESPN as many times as they were, I have my doubts on the results of at least the Heisman from 2004 (Adrian Peterson, despite being a freshman, was the top player in the league that year, not Leinart. Leinart wasn't even the best quarterback in the league, despite winning the National Championship).
Continue reading "Heisman Watch - Pre-Season"
Posted by Benjamin Miraski at 2:00 PM | Comments (0)