August 29, 2008

Tailgate Preview - Week 1

The college football season kicks off this week with a snorer of a slate. Nothing like padding your resume with wins over Chattanooga, Georgia Southern and Tennessee-Martin (That means you Oklahoma, Georgia and South Florida).

I am not expecting any Appalachian State-type upsets this season during the first week, not even from Appalachian State. LSU might not have its defensive core from last season, but they are no 2007-version Michigan (or 2008-version Michigan either).

A departure from the norm this week then with a little wider focus, not just previews of the Big XII and the ACC.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the games that actually mean something this weekend:

Illinois vs. Missouri (-9) in St. Louis – Missouri is coming off a high last season, and Chase Daniel is a likely strong contender for the Heisman. Illinois might have a strong defense, but they have lost Rashard Mendenhall and the Juice (Williams) might end up getting squeezed with the loss of his backfield-mate. Illinois head coach Ron Zook should be a little scared. The Tigers are one of the strongest teams in the country on both sides of the ball.

Look for Missouri to cover in the Border War.

Alabama vs. Clemson (-4.5) in Atlanta – Call me crazy, but I can see Tommy Bowden’s season at Clemson getting off to a rough start. While the Tigers might be the best in a very mediocre ACC, Alabama just rings of a better season, even if its final win total might be less than Clemson. I think the Tiger line troubles might be too much to overcome this early in the season.

Take Alabama with the points.

Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina (+9.5) in Charlotte – I worry about Virginia Tech. There is a quarterback situation, the defense is a major question mark and the ACC is so weak, they might get a big head thinking they have an easy road ahead. That is a perfect storm of a situation for East Carolina, a team that should be among the class of Conference USA.

Take the Pirates with the points.

Tennessee at UCLA (+7.5) – UCLA’s struggles with injuries at the quarterback position continue into the Neuheisel era, with both Ben Oldon and Patrick Cowan out. That should serve to make things ugly in his first season. Tennessee, meanwhile, is just a middle pack team in the SEC, but should still be able to run all over the Bruins.

Tennessee covers the 7.5.

Utah at Michigan (-3.5) – Ready to see Michigan fans cry after the opener for the second season in a row? Utah is strong enough to make it happen. Add in the first season under Rich Rodriguez, with the wrong personnel for his system, and it is more likely.

The Utes cover, and pull the straight-up upset.

Michigan State at Cal (-5.5) – Ever have one of those games that you just can’t tell? The Spartans look like they could be anywhere from mediocre to decent. The Bears look like they have a lot of work to do on offense to really finish high in the PAC-10 as they are predicted to do.

I am feeling the 5.5 for Michigan State, but this is my shakiest pick of the weekend.

Colorado at Colorado State (+11) in Denver – The big rivalry game of the weekend, because honestly, who cares about Kentucky or Louisville this year? Then again, who cares about Colorado and Colorado State outside of the attendees at the Democratic National Convention? I really like Colorado this season, and think they will be last year’s Kansas in the Big XII. They won’t win 12 games, but they should finish respectably, and ahead of the Jayhawks. Colorado State, by contrast is bad. Not rotten old fish bad, but bad. There is too much going against the Rams.

Take the Buffs to cover the spread.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His ACC and Big XII previews appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 9:02 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 24, 2008

2008 ACC Preview

It is quite a change to cover the ACC in addition to the Big XII this season. For starters, the ACC has nowhere near the depth of the Big XII. It has never become the super-conference in football that it hoped it would be when it added Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College.

While Virginia Tech and Boston College have been competitive, Miami has been a flop since coming over. And this season, it looks like both the Hokies and BC will be taking a step backwards, leaving the door open for new participants in the ACC championship game.

Without further ado, the ACC

Atlantic Division

1. Clemson
Coach: Tommy Bowden
2007: 9-4 (5-3), Lost Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Head of the Class – There is little to criticize about James Davis and CJ Spiller, except last year’s performance. While Clemson was favored to win last season’s Atlantic Division, they ended up blowing the conference lead and letting Boston College slip into the title game. The pair are still the best pair of backs in the conference, and among the best pairs in the NCAA. Look for them both to step up this season.

Underachievers – While it is tempting to pick Bowden as the biggest underachiever, grasping defeat from the jaws of victory over and over again, I think the offensive line is a big question mark. Almost the entire group will be new starters and while talented, the lack of a solid group up front was what held back the head of the class last season.

Academic Suspension – This is Clemson, so you have to be wary of picking them to finish in first place. This year, I also worry about a brewing quarterback controversy. The only reason this didn’t become a major issue last year was that freshman Willy Korn got injured and took a medical red shirt. This year, he is back to challenge Cullen Harper and it will be interesting to watch how Bowden handles a full year of competition.

2. Wake Forest
Coach: Jim Grobe
2007: 9-4 (5-3), Won Meineke Car Care Bowl
Head of the Class – This is a team built on solid defense. Ignore the offense for right now, this team returns nine starters on the defense and that should be enough right there to keep them in the hunt not only the division title, but another ACC title. Alphonso Smith should be one of the top defensive backs in college football, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had 10 or more interceptions.

Underachievers – Hey, offense, wake up. Actually, this season is Riley Skinner’s last, and I think the experience should help him to settle in and push for another post-season honor. Together with Josh Adams at running back, the pair should add enough numbers on the board to outscore the little that the defense will let up.

Academic Suspension – This is the theme of the ACC Atlantic: the offensive line looks weak. While it should not be as big an issue as it is with Clemson who is built on running, it is still a concern. Again, it is the defense that is Wake’s strength, but the weak line could affect that side of the ball also by only producing short series.

3. Maryland
Coach: Ralph Friedgen
2007: 6-7 (3-5), Lost Emerald Bowl
Head of the Class – Maryland has the most experience on offense of what I think will be the top three teams. They return a huge strong offensive line and that should be enough to improve already. Add a terribly weak schedule and the Terps could actually come out ahead in the league (getting the feeling that this is still wide open?).

Underachievers – The defense could be a big question with only five returning starters, but that is still a group with a lot of experience. The biggest holes are in the defensive backfield, but given the running bent of the ACC and the loss of some of the more experienced receivers and quarterbacks, I think Maryland has enough ramp up time to get their new starters ready to play.

Academic Suspension – Who schedules for Maryland? Delaware, Middle Tennessee State and Eastern Michigan in the non-conference? You want to maybe put a challenge in there? They do play Cal, but the other three games make it look as if a Big Ten team were putting their schedule together. Even if Maryland surprises in the ACC, the weak non-conference slate could kill any high ranking they could hope to achieve.

4. Florida State
Coach: Bobby Bowden
2007: 7-6 (4-4), Lost Music City Bowl
Head of the Class – The team returns 15 starters from last season, including eight on defense which should be a huge start for Florida State. The team replaces only a single man on the line, at linebacker and in the defensive backfield. Look for the defense to be the strength which will be huge for the Seminoles given that the offense has been troublesome for the last few years.

Underachievers – Drew Weatherford is back again, which may not be a good thing. There is always a chance that his senior season will be a jump up in production, sort of like the free agent year in most pro sports. This time Weatherford will be trying to take his game to the pros. I am not sold yet.

Academic Suspension – The offensive line is really inexperienced. The two returning starters are only sophomores and Rodney Hudson, one of the returnees, changes position to the all important left tackle. This is not a good sign for a team that already struggles in its offensive game. Lucky for Florida State, they have two 1-AA games to get things together before Wake Forest comes to town.

5. Boston College
Coach: Jeff Jagodzinski
2007: 11-3 (6-3), Won Champs Sports Bowl
Head of the Class – The offensive line is the strength of the returning starters, though that isn’t saying much (only 10 total starters back). Whomever is back behind center after the loss of Matt Ryan will at least have a little time to figure out what to do with the ball.

Underachievers – It looks like Chris Crane will be taking over for Matt Ryan at quarterback. He has taken all of 40 snaps in his career. He is no Matt Ryan though. The entire quarterback troupe will have a lot of learning to do and fast because…

Academic Suspension – The schedule for Boston College is not easy. Non-conference games against Kent State, Central Florida and Notre Dame are not simple wins, especially without your star QB. Clemson comes to Boston College, but the team goes on the road to Florida State and Wake Forest. It will be a long second season for Jagodzinski, but he might see a glimpse of a bowl at the end of the year if things break the Eagles’ way
.
6. North Carolina State
Coach: Tom O’Brien
2007: 5-7 (3-5)
Head of the Class – It is year number two of the Tom O’Brien experience so that should help the play of the Wolfpack. That is about all the good news there is for this team.

Underachievers – How fast can the new guys learn? NC State returns only 10 starters and lost almost half the team to graduation. O’Brien can work some miracles, but this would be a tough task for even Jesus to come through with some upbeat news.

Academic Suspension – It is hard to rip on a team for scheduling tough, except that this was not the year to have the schedule that the Wolfpack put together. South Floirda, at South Carolina and one of the top C-USA teams, East Carolina, all make this a tough row to hoe for O’Brien and his young squad. Start looking forward to 2009 now.

Coastal Division

1. North Carolina
Coach: Butch Davis
2007: 4-8 (3-5)
Head of the Class – What’s not to like? The team returns 18 starters, they are in the second year of the Davis system, and they get Virginia Tech at home. The team should be improved just by getting older, and there is a big drop in a number of teams in the division. The ACC has a record of sending a surprise team to the Championship game each season, so why not the Tar Heels?

Underachievers – We will know everything about North Carolina’s season by the end of September. They miss out on Clemson in the regular season, so there is no looming giant in the conference late in the schedule (sorry, Duke). But September is the gantlet, with a trip to Rutgers, a visit from Virginia Tech and a visit to Miami. Go 2-1 in those three with the loss not coming against Virginia Tech and this team rolls to the division title.

Academic Suspension – I don’t like taking the Tar Heels at number one in the division, which is about my only complaint. The team struggled on both sides of the ball last year, and a year of improvement might not be enough. However, the rest of the division is also not improving, so this might be the best of the available.

2. Virginia Tech
Coach: Frank Beamer
2007: 11-3 (8-1), Lost Orange Bowl
Head of the Class – The best quarterback in the conference is Sean Taylor, er, Tyrod Glennon. Ok, so Virginia Tech has a quarterback controversy, but together Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor are the best quarterback in the ACC. Glennon will get the majority of the snaps, but expect Taylor to be used like Tebow was when he was a freshman. Near the end of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Taylor gets more time under center as he moves to the featured arm.

Underachievers – Glennon and Taylor can’t win the games themselves, and the running core and receivers are all a little green around the edges. That means trouble scoring, and that could lead to even more issues because…

Academic Suspension – Where is the defense? It is risky to put a Beamer team on notice for their defense, but I think we all remember how exposed they looked against LSU last season. Now take away the experience they had then, and bring in seven new starters. Yeah, not pretty, but better than what comes after them.

3. Miami
Coach: Randy Shannon
2007: 5-7 (2-6)
Head of the Class – Here is where the entire bottom of the conference gets murky. But Miami has the edge in defense, which could give them enough to squeak out a few wins against the weak offenses out there. They do draw Florida (ouch), but outside of that, the non-conference slate looks fairly winnable with the defense clicking. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hurricanes can get a bloated-looking eight wins.

Underachievers – The quarterback continues to be an issue for the Hurricanes. They haven’t been able to get stability there for the last 5 years, and with four freshmen lining up for the job, it doesn’t look to get very clear this season. The best thing the QB can do is to not make mistakes, which freshmen are prone to do. Someone has to emerge for even a third place finish here.

Academic Suspension – And that should translate into another anemic offense from Miami. I don’t know what happened in South Florida to the super-teams that used to stalk the field. It will be up to the rag tag bunch to put together just enough to outscore what the defense can provide. I will take that chance, but not with a great deal of certainty.

4. Virginia
Coach: Al Groh
2007: 9-4 (6-2), Lost Gator Bowl
Head of the Class – Virginia returns three of the four starters at linebacker in its 3-4 defense. Expect those four to get a workout and have their names called quite a bit on Saturday. Last season was a success through close wins, achieved through defense. If the linebackers can anchor the fairly inexperienced squad, they should do just fine.

Underachievers – Eugene Monroe is a force on the offensive line, but the rest of the line looks like a really question mark. In the ACC, someone has to win, so maybe the unit can come through, especially when some of the defenses look like swiss cheese. But this will be a tough struggle with three new faces beginning every game.

Academic Suspension – The front three are all new on defensive side, one of the primary reasons that the linebackers will be busy. If teams can run all over the Cavaliers, there might not be hope for even a fourth place finish. But again, the lines in the ACC are not the greatest in the world. Look for some interesting series on D.

5. Georgia Tech
Coach: Paul Johnson
2007: 7-6 (4-4), Lost Humanitarian Bowl
Head of the Class – Paul Johnson likes to win, and he does win. Navy was one of the best offenses and most exciting teams to follow over the past few years under Johnson. If he can bring that excitement to Georgia Tech, there is no telling the havoc that the Yellow Jackets can cause in the ACC.

Underachievers – The transition to Johnson’s offense will not be easy, and it will require the offense having a lot more speed. Georgia Tech is already faster than Navy could ever be, but the bigs on the line will need to move faster. I have no doubt that Andrew Gardner can after a 1st Team ACC honor last year, but dragging along the rest of the squad might be difficult.

Academic Suspension – At Virginia Tech, at Clemson, at Georgia, at North Carolina – Need any more proof that the best Georgia Tech might dream about is eight wins? Oh yeah, don’t forget Mississippi State, so make it seven. If the team comes around quickly, they will be a shock to a lot of ACC teams, and that might be enough to get them bowling again. It will be extremely close.

6. Duke
Coach: David Cutcliffe
2007: 1-11 (0-8)
Head of the Class – At least when Duke struggles, they have the law on their side. A judge ruled that Duke is pretty much terrible in a dispute between Louisville and the Blue Devils over a cancelled football game. But even Duke has a bright spot and that is ten returning defensive starters. Say what you will about how bad Duke is, but an experienced defense can do you wonders. I don’t know if it will be enough to get to four wins, but it is enough to win maybe two.

Underachievers – The offense needs some kind of rhythm and Cutcliffe should be able to provide them a plan to get some. I understand that new systems take time to learn, but anything would be an improvement over Duke last season. Anyone recall the first half of the Duke – Notre Dame game? Yeah, that should be proof enough, and that was late in the season. Cutcliffe, go to work.

Academic Suspension – This is Duke. Again, a judge said they are terrible. It is basically law at this point. The worst part of the whole thing? Northwestern and Vanderbilt, the misfits of their own leagues, will beat them this season.

Bold Prediction:
I think North Carolina winning the Coastal division should be bold enough, but how about another.

• One of the duo at tailback at Clemson ends up on stage in New York for the Heisman.


• Miami will get shut out twice this season.


• Maryland will end the season ranked.

Top Games:

• Virginia Tech at North Carolina – winner takes the Coastal division.


• Clemson at Florida State, Clemson at Wake Forest, heck, how about every Clemson game with the twisted focus on when the whole thing will fall apart for Bowden this year.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His ACC and Big XII previews appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 9:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

August 21, 2008

2008 Big XII Preview

It is time to get back into the swing of things at MRISports.com, and that means a return to what you all come here for: A chance to rip on my predictions.

Once again as part of the Tailgate at Blogcritics, I will be previewing the Big XII conference each week, and this year, I will also be tackling the ACC.

To start though, the old standby: The Big XII

Big XII South

1. Oklahoma Coach: Bob Stoops 2007: 11-3 (7-2), Lost Fiesta Bowl Head of the Class – What is there not to like about the Sooners? There was no off-season drama. Sam Bradford looks like the real deal, and again they have one of the most punishing offensive lines in the country. Plus, their schedule shapes up well skipping Missouri and with all of the toughest games at home.

Underachievers – Since Adrian Peterson was injured and then left early for the NFL, it is has been running back by committee in Norman. Now that Bradford is a known commodity, the running game is going to have to back him to a greater extent. Not a problem with the line the Sooners have but it is always a little tricky when there is not a featured back game after game.

Academic Suspension – It is always a good sign when the worst thing someone can say about you is that you are starting a freshman kicker. Jimmy Stevens should be taking over the reins of the kicking job, and we know how many games often come down to important kicks. With Oklahoma’s offense, this shouldn’t be an issue, but it is something to watch.

2. Texas Coach: Mack Brown 2007: 10-3 (5-3), Won Holiday Bowl Head of the Class – Mack Brown has turned Texas into Linemen University. The Longhorns again have one of the best lines on both sides of the ball despite losing two starters from the defense. While the Big XII is slowly shifting to a spread-offense conference, most of the games are still won and lost in the trenches and there is nothing bad to say about the men who work on those lines for Texas.

Underachievers – Where did the Colt McCoy from his freshman season go? He might have still been feeling the hangovers of that season’s injuries and hit last year. When the defenses finally got to him, I think it made him wake up and realize that he was in college. Last season, McCoy seemed more tentative with the ball. It will be up to him to get Texas back to the top of the league, so he better be ready for it.

Academic Suspension – The defense loses 7 starters and the schedule is not too kind to Texas. They get Missouri and Texas A&M at home, but still have a tough trip to Kansas (wow, that is strange to say) and Texas Tech. Don’t expect an undefeated run with a stretch of games like this. Mack Brown might want to make sure he actually beats A&M this year too (two straight losses).

3. Texas Tech Coach: Mike Leach 2007: 9-4 (4-4), Won Gator Bowl

Head of the Class – Defense and air power are the name of the game in Lubbock. The Red Raiders had one of the best defenses in the league after they dumped their defensive coordinator following the loss to Oklahoma State last year. And no one can underestimate the air attack that Leach puts on the field. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree are both back to make defensive backs’ heads spin.

Underachievers – The running game (yes, they have one) took a step backwards last season, but the Red Raiders actually did better in the win-loss column. With the entire line and running core back, Texas Tech should actually have a more balanced offense this year, giving Harrell a break from running from the defense.

Academic Suspension – To move up to 10 wins, the Red Raiders are going to have to find a way to get past both Oklahoma and Texas which will not be an easy task. While this might be their most talented team, they are still a step behind the two goliaths of the division. Plus, Tech has to travel to Oklahoma, where they haven’t won since 1996.

4. Oklahoma State Coach: Mike “41” Gundy 2007: 7-6 (4-4), Won Insight Bowl

Head of the Class – Now that all that craziness about Bobby Reid is over with his transfer, the Cowboys can settle on Zac Robinson at quarterback, where he did fairly well in his replacement role last season. Add in one of the most experienced offensive lines in the conference, and the big score attack of Oklahoma State might just show up this season.

Underachievers – The defensive backfield finished in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of effectiveness. That leaves a lot of room for improvement. With most of the unit back, they should be improved, a big necessity in the now high flying Big XII. The Cowboys should live and die by the effectiveness of their defense this season, so let’s say their life depends on that improvement.

Academic Suspension – While I am tempted to say Mike Gundy should get the nod here, I am going to go with the not so friendly schedule and division that Oklahoma State has to tackle. They play Missouri, Texas and Texas Tech all on the road which will not help them, plus they have a super-weak non-conference slate. All that, and having to play in the South Division will do them no favors. They are fourth by default.

5. Texas A&M Coach: Mike Sherman 2007: 7-6 (4-4), Lost Alamo Bowl

Head of the Class -- The best news for A&M might have been the departure of Dennis Franchione, who not only had his newsletter scandal, but a knack for losing too. Enter Mike Sherman who had some success at the pro level and will be looking to have that translate into something in College Station. Keeping his nose clean might be the best move in a first season which looks to be a little rocky.

Underachievers – The entire starting backfield returns which should be good news, but they were squite spotty in games last season. Stephen McGee should step it up in his senior season and if Jorvorskie Lane can return to his 2006 form, maybe there is some hope for the offense.

Academic Suspension – The offensive line is a huge issue going into the season. With only one major starter returning, the early part of the season will be spent not only learning a new system, but learning to play together. McGee is going to need a lot of ice bags to recover from all the pounding he will take. The second big issue will be whether the team keeps it together. It was obvious they quit on Franchione last year. Now with a new system, will the team lose confidence quickly if the wins don’t happen?

6. Baylor Coach: Art Briles 2007: 3-9 (0-8)

Head of the Class – Returning nine offensive starters is the only thing looking good for Baylor this season. While last season seemed to be their best chance to get to a bowl, they couldn’t eek out a single Big XII victory. Having the experience on their side, especially on the offensive line, should help, but then again, this is Baylor.

Underachievers – This is Baylor. They always underachieve. New coach Art Briles might have a few surprises up his sleeve. Briles comes from Houston, where he had some success. Now, he has a chance to show what he can do in the big leagues with the consistently worst team in conference.

Academic Suspension – Baylor will be lucky to squeak out 2 victories this season, playing in the South against Oklahoma, Texas and the rest. Let’s just stick with the Underachiever mantra: This is Baylor.

Big XII North

1. Missouri Coach: Gary Pinkel 2007: 12-2 (7-2), Won Cotton Bowl

Head of the Class – Missouri starts and ends with Chase Daniel. The Heisman contender should be right in the mix for the most prestigious award in college football until the last week of the season. The biggest knock against him this season might be the schedule as Missouri misses Oklahoma and outside of Illinois, the non-conference slate is very weak. There should be little keeping Daniel from at least repeating as Big XII offensive player of the year.

Underachievers – Sean Weatherspoon should lead one of the best linebacking cores in the country this season once again. He scored 130 tackles last year, and with the whole unit returning, behind a very veteran defensive line, look for teams to have to take Missouri deep to get anything going against them. While all the talk this year will focus on the offense, the defense will keep this team in the running for an undefeated year.

Academic Suspension – It is hard to find holes in Missouri. The biggest challenge might be having lost their center and left tackle on the offensive line, two important positions. If the line gels quickly with its new blood, there is nothing holding Missouri back.

2. Nebraska Coach: Bo Pelini 2007: 5-7 (2-6)

Head of the Class – I am still smarting from picking Nebraska to win the North last season, so call me a little skeptical putting them at #2 in the division this season, especially with a new head coach. My best bet for Nebraska is that Marlon Lucky will emerge as a dark horse Heisman candidate. While the runners in this year’s class are very good, Lucky has shown he has the ability and in a new offense focused on running, Lucky will excel. Plus he will take the head off new quarterback Joe Ganz.

Underachievers – The defense has to improve. Last year’s squad never looked like the famed Blackshirts and has a lot of ground to make up to get that label back. Adding Pelini at head coach should help, having been an assistant at Nebraska, and leading the great defenses at LSU. This unit will have Nebraska competing while everyone counts them out.

Academic Suspension – Nebraska only returns 11 starters, but that might be a bonus for the team which was just embarrassing last season. Forgetting the Bill Callahan Experience should be easy when so many of the names on the field change. Plus Pelini will likely run a much more disciplined team, which should stop them from having off-field incidents that went along with the sorry on-field play last season.

3. Colorado Coach: Dan Hawkins 2007: 6-7 (4-4), Lost Independence Bowl

Head of the Class – With so much returning talent, Colorado should improve on its .500 conference record last season. They had a couple of close losses go against them, and they have a big upset win against Oklahoma to build on. Look for Cody Hawkins to lead a much more mature offense in 2008.

Underachievers – Behind Hawkins in the backfield are likely two freshmen, one a red shirt. Getting the running game moving will be a big part of Colorado’s success but they should have an easier time than you would expect with very highly rated Darrell Scott the likely starter. Scott’s 4.3 speed should have the Buffs running all over the competition…

Academic Suspension – …until you see who that competition is. West Virginia and Florida State are part of the non-conference slate, and Colorado has Missouri, Texas A&M and Missouri on the road. Colorado has upset ability so don’t count out them as my surprise third place team. However, it is going to take some luck like they had last season against Oklahoma.

4. Kansas Coach: Mark Mangino 2007: 12-1 (7-1), Won Orange Bowl

Head of the Class – Todd Reesing was spectacular in leading Kansas to the Orange Bowl last season. He should continue to be the best part of the Jayhawk team, despite my ranking of them fourth this season. He will be challenged with some changes on the offensive line, but if the brilliance of last season is there, you can’t count out Kansas yet.

Underachievers – Someone has to catch the ball from Reesing, and Kansas lost two of its best receivers to the pros. The receiving core will need to mature quickly, especially since Kansas won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.

Academic Suspension – Kansas again draws the top three teams from the South division on their schedule, something they missed out on during last season’s run. I didn’t like Kansas last year when they had the easy schedule. I really don’t like it when they have to play all the best from the other side. This is probably underestimating the Jayhawk team, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall back to Earth.

5. Kansas State Coach: Ron Prince 2007: 5-7 (3-5)

Head of the Class – Kansas State returns seven starters on offense, and adds a number of JUCO transfers which should offset some of the losses. Look for the more experienced offense to run smoother than last year, and not have the fitful starts and stops. This team had a majorly disappointing season last year, and the offense can only improve its standing with all of the returns.

Underachievers – Kansas State was the ultimate underachiever last season, losing to a discombobulated Nebraska team and Iowa State. And that was after a surprising win against Texas. The Wildcats will need to pull one upset to get back to a bowl this year and not collapse against a team they should beat.

Academic Suspension – Kansas State replaces a large part of the defensive line, and given that some of the best offensive lines in the country play in the Big XII, that could mean a long season. Luckily, the Wildcats have an easier run through the non-conference slate before the challenges, so it is possible to get ahead of the pain that is coming.

6. Iowa State Coach: Gene Chizik 2007: 3-9 (2-6)

Head of the Class – Oklahoma and Texas are gone from Iowa State’s schedule, so they have a little more breathing room in conference this season, even after surprising with two wins in the league last year. Iowa State also gets all of the tough foes coming to them this year, which could bode well for an upset. Don’t count out Iowa State from being better than last year and getting a win that makes you scratch your head.

Underachievers – Austen Arnaud takes over for four-year starter Bret Meyer which could be a big question mark for the offense. Arnaud has some speed and Chizik plans to take advantage of his versatility to shake up the game plan. If Arnaud quickly comes of age, he could be one of the best stories in the league this season especially behind a veteran offensive line.

Academic Suspension – Iowa State doesn’t yet have the talent to compete week after week in the Big XII. While they make get a couple more upsets this season, the Cyclones are more likely to go winless in the league than end up .500.

Bold Prediction:

• Oklahoma runs the table and plays for all the marbles against a team from the SEC… and wins.
• Missouri will be undefeated when they meet Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, making the battle the best, and most important, conference championship in any league.

Games to Watch:

• The Red River Shootout, which is no longer called that, pitting Oklahoma and Texas will be one of the best games of the season, and should decide the South, although I don't think Texas will only have a single loss in conference.
• Missouri at Nebraska the first week in October will be the best gauge of whether Nebraska has turned the corner.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 2:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 12, 2007

College Football Notebook

There is still a little over a week to go until the bowl games, but I thought I would run through a couple of the top stories in the college football world.

• Tim Tebow Wins the Heisman: I thought this was going to be the case. It would not have been such if Dennis Dixon had not gotten hurt, or Darren McFadden hadn't disappeared for an entire month. However, it came to pass and Tim Tebow became the first sophomore to win the award.

  I will say it now. He will not win again next year.

  This is mainly because he had the perfect confluence of events in order to get the award this season. Not only was there not a front running team with a single main contributor, but Florida was without a featured running back, leaving Tebow to rack up numbers unlike we have seen in the scoring column.

  Next year, Florida should be good again, but Tebow should go back to having numbers in the mortal range. I would look for numbers similar to what Dixon had done, or would have been projected to do with a full season.

  There will also be some strong competition from a true running back on a contending team next season. Should Texas contend, Jamaal Charles will be a major part of that, however, it might be situation like Pat White and Steve Slaton, if both are healthy and contributing, with Colt McCoy potentially bouncing back from a poor season (I might go out there and say that McCoy will not bounce back. I think those concussions and other injuries have really shook him to the point where he can't produce anymore at the college level.) Pat White should also still be around and contending (he has to stay healthy!). And of course, Chase Daniel, will again be among the contenders after he had such a run near the end of this season. Beating Oklahoma will be a huge necessity for him to win though.

  So with the number of good to great players going into next year, and the expected fall off of Tebow, you will not get an Archie Griffin-experience next year. Although, with the way this season went, you never know what to expect next year.

• Paul Johnson to Georgia Tech: If there is one team that can win Johnson's triple option offense, it is Georgia Tech. I think they are perfectly set up for it, with the number of strong backs they get to the school. Plus, they have never really been a great passing offense with Chan Gailey, despite all the attempts with Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson. In the ACC, a league with less speed than an SEC, or Big XII on defense, I see success, and a chance to return Georgia Tech to the success they should be having.

  I know the ACC likes to think of itself has a big time conference. That was why they added Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Miami into the league. Before those three got there, the league was Florida State, maybe 2 teams a year that were OK, and then everyone else. Those two "OK" teams rotated every year, but were mainly North Carolina State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, or Virginia. Every blue moon a team like a North Carolina or Maryland could jump up and win at that top level, but there was little consistency outside of Florida State every year. Therefore it should be no surprise that two of the top teams they brought (bought?) from the Big East are now the powerhouses in the league.

  With a situation like that, there is no reason that Paul Johnson can't take Georgia Tech to a 9-3 record every season, and some years, a 10-2 record, with his offensive style. The ACC is not as competitive overall nor does it have the stopping power defenses.

• Bobby Petrino to Arkansas: Given his situation in Atlanta and the success he had at the college level, it was only a matter of time before Petrino would be back. Arkansas is a nice program, although in a very tough coaching division in the best football conference in the country. I still think there will be a few seasons before Arkansas is where they think they should be with Petrino at the helm. The main reason is that they need to find someone to quarterback that offense if they are going to play the Petrino way. There is nothing left in the cupboard for him to start with at that position, and he likely loses McFadden to the draft (although Felix Jones is nothing to cough at). Again, good hire (albeit a little shady, but what hire isn't in college football these days), but Arkansas fans better give it time to succeed.
• Big Ten to Grant Bye Week: With the expansion to a 12 game season, the conference affected the most had to be the Big Ten. With a "tradition" of being done with their football season prior to Thanksgiving, squeezing in an extra game meant losing their bye week. It also meant that without a week off, scheduling went downhill. This is because teams were so worried about injuries, they stopped facing bigger and stronger teams, while the MAC and Division 1-AA got a few more shots.

  I am not so down on teams like Michigan State and Michigan, who consistently play against tough opponents, like Notre Dame and teams from other BCS conferences. Ohio State tries to do the same, although they spent three of their games on the other schools in Ohio this season. They should go back to a schedule like 2006, when they played Cincinnati, Texas, and a good Northern Illinois (although they lucked out on the last one). Then playing a team like Youngstown State or Akron is a little more palatable. The rest of the Big Ten is a joke when it comes to scheduling.

  This ruling changes that. It allows an early bye week, which could be placed after a tough game against a team from the SEC, or PAC-10. Even a game against a tough Big XII foe would be acceptable (not a Baylor, or Iowa State). Teams would not be beaten down so badly after 12 weeks that they would have nothing left at the end of the season. Teams would not be out of the public eye for so long while other conferences might have two or three games still remaining. Teams would be more competitive come bowl season, because they will have been tested during the year with the tougher scheduling, and will be playing later and be focused longer.

  The Big Ten needed this, and probably could have gone further to allow games until the final week of the season. But this is the right step. Now the individual teams need to do the necessary things to make the league a powerhouse in college football again.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 3:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

December 6, 2007

Two Rants: Dennis and Journalism

There is no action taking place on the field, but there are two things that I couldn't let pass in the last few days.

The first of those has to do with the Heisman finalists which were announced last night. Four players are going to be invited to New York for the ceremony, a step up from the farcical three that have been invited in the last few seasons. Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel, Darren McFadden, and Tim Tebow will be making the trip this season.

I have to give the voters the benefit of the doubt for the most part. If you go by performance alone, there is a wide variety of choices this season. You could go with the best two way player in Tebow, you could go with the most skillful running back, or you could go with the two quarterbacks who did a lot to improve the status of their teams. A voter could even have put together a ballot that had Sam Bradford, Kevin Smith, and Todd Reesing, and they would have had enough of an argument to defend it.

However, I think the voters missed the boat on at least one of the two players in my top three who are not being invited to New York. As I pointed out in my last Heisman article, there were two players who exhibited the leadership and the skill to elevate their teams beyond what those teams were without him. Dennis Dixon and Pat White both put together seasons which could have them considered as the "best" player on the field this season.

I can understand potentially not voting for Pat White outside of his region. His big televised games were not the kind that would stand out to the rest of the country who did not see him play consistently. However, I see no reason for not voting for Dennis Dixon.

Even if you didn't see him play often this season, any voter worth his salt knew when he got hurt, and what happened to the Oregon team without him. Dixon made Oregon into a National Championship contender. Without him, they are in the Sun Bowl. That is a massive difference, and a testament to the skill of a single player.

I am quite surprised. Most of the ballots I have seen have Dixon at least in third place. So, I would think he would have gotten at least an invite. However, he isn't. I would have thought that a 5th spot on the stage would have been reserved. However it wasn't. That is a major loss for the world of college football who had a very good player left out of the mix in this season of turmoil from week 1 to week 14.

My other rant has to do with the decline in one aspect of good journalism. I know I just lost half of my audience, however small that is, with that sentence, but I think this is important.

We saw it start on Saturday, and even earlier, when Les Miles was rumored, and then reported to be going to Michigan. This led to Miles having to hold a press conference to stop the madness, and report that he was staying at LSU. This reporting (mostly blamed falsely on Kirk Herbstreit, when the blogosphere and others were all jabbering about this for weeks ahead of time. I am far from the biggest Herbstreit fan, and I thought he was jobbed on this) was just wrong, and ignored one of the fundamental principles which is verification, getting multiple sources to ensure that the proper information is released to the public.

I understand the pressure that is journalism in the new age. There is a race to be the first to report the information. However, there should also be a duty to ensure that the information is correct prior to that report. Anyone who has seen or, god forbid read, "All The President's Men" knows how many sources that Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein needed before they were allowed to publish anything. There should be no less importance placed on multiple sources in today's world with the faster technology and increased pressure.

The reason this is bothering me beyond that single incident is the massive number of rumored reports about the coaching vacancy at Arkansas. First Tommy Bowden was leaving Clemson for the Razorbacks. Hours later, he wasn't. Last night, it was Jim Grobe of Wake Forest leaving, based on analysis of flight patterns between Charlotte and Fayetteville. Turns out that Grobe is also staying put with the Demon Deacons.

College Football journalists and bloggers alike need to take a step back and allow the schools to go through their processes. Michigan, Arkansas and others, all deserve the respect that responsible reporting should allow, to complete their search without losing candidates to the rumor mill of the Internet. These schools allow the journalists on campus each season, give them probably more than their fair share of access to players and coaches, and treat them better than what the journalists are giving in return.

It is time for the profession of journalism to act professional.

/soapbox

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 1:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 30, 2007

Big XII - Championship Preview

Dennis Franchione is out, as expected. Mike Sherman will be taking his place.

Bill Callahan is gone, as expected. Shocking is that he could have kept his job had he just finished above .500. That wasn’t out of the question at the time Tom Osborne was hired. Callahan just couldn’t make it happen.

Guy Morriss has been replaced at Baylor by Art Briles, not Mike Singletary as expected. I have to say I am disappointed. I bet Singletary’s eyes would have put some fire into the Bear players.

I have not been replaced by Jack the Monkey. A 3-2 final week kept me somewhat respectable this season at 12-22-1.

Oklahoma managed to win while Texas could not, so they get the nod to face Missouri again, who managed to expose Kansas for who they were before allowing them to make the score closer than the game actually was.

At stake this week might not just be the automatic BCS bid for the conference, but also any shot of a Big XII at-large team. Should Missouri win, and be playing for the National Championship, the smart money is on Kansas getting chosen for the Fiesta Bowl. If Oklahoma wins, the door likely closes on another team from the conference. The only small murmur to the contrary that I have heard is that there is a chance that the Fiesta Bowl might choose Kansas to face Oklahoma in a “conference” game which didn’t happen this season. Must See Football? Probably not as much as seeing Georgia or Arizona State coming to town.

Oklahoma (-3) vs. Missouri in San Antonio - Tony Temple was not in the game the first time around. Is Temple worth 4.5 points, which would be the difference if you factor in the 3 point home field advantage that most lines have in them? I would say he is. Strong running games often take the pressure off quarterbacks, by loosening the defense. He probably is worth more, maybe 5 or 6 points. It is too bad that won’t overcome the ten they lost by last time. Oklahoma has more talent across the board, even if there are some positions where Missouri has an advantage. Sooners take this game again, and cover.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. You can read the full preview for week 14 here. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 3:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 29, 2007

National Firing Day? ESPN Would Love It

Columnist John Bridges is a little shocked how quickly some of the college coaching hires have been done. It took less than 24 hours for Houston Nutt to move from Arkansas to Mississippi.

It took only a single interview with Mike Sherman (who the AD previously didn't even know) for Sherman to take over the Aggies. The best part is that Sherman will be the 3rd highest paid employee of the State of Texas, just behind Mack Brown and the still vacant position of University President at the school he is going to be coaching at. President search time, over a year. College football coach, less than a day.

Technically, according to Bridges, this should have taken at least 10 days by law since it is a state paid position. But the AD was able to get an exemption because of an emergency. The emergency was possibly losing recruits which Dennis Franchione had already lured to the school.

Seems to me that the ex-coach of the team did more to ruin the recruiting class than a vacancy at the top for 10 days. And it also seems that the guidance of one of the ten biggest universities in America would be a little more of an emergency. Are you telling me that over the course of a year you can't find an educator qualified for the job in a year's time, yet you can be certain about Mike Sherman who has never been a college head coach?

Bridges suggests that the NCAA goes to a National Firing Day, much like National Signing Day, where coaches can be hired and fired all within 24 hours. Of course, it would be televised on ESPN. At least then we could get rid of the charade that some amount of due diligence has been done on these coaching hires.

Posted by bmiraski at 9:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 28, 2007

Got a Beef With Your Opponent? Call the Rice Marching Band

Rice might be one of the worst football teams on the field, but their band has to be in the top ten. The marching band is known for putting together half time shows which poke fun at their opponents.

Case in point, this halftime show when Rice played against Texas, making fun of the legal troubles of some of the players, and the lax punishment by Mack Brown. (Side note: I had a feeling at the beginning of the season that all these distractions from the legal issues would harm Texas. I just didn't see at the end of the season how they could lose to A&M. At the beginning of the season, you bet. But after Franchione all but destroyed that team, no way.)

Apparently their show when they faced Tulsa ruffled a few feathers. See, the Tulsa coach, Todd Graham, was the head coach at Rice for a single season. That would be just before he bolted without warning to Tulsa, leaving fans and Rice in the lurch.

Well, the Rice band put together a fun little show lambasting the coach through the circles of hell, calling it Todd Graham's Inferno.

Tulsa didn't take too kindly to the humor, nor the coach being called a "d-----bag" prior to the final part of the piece.

A formal complaint has been filed with the Conference USA office. Don't you wish other conferences had so little to worry about that this is what they filed complaints over? Maybe Tulsa should worry more about how they are going to beat Central Florida for the Conference USA title, than a band for a team that barely won anything this season.

Posted by bmiraski at 2:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Dr. Robert Cade, Dead at Age 80

You can watch sports all your life, but no symbol will stand for the world of sport more than Gatorade. The presence of large orange coolers on the sideline, the little green squirt bottles, the inumerable little green cups. Drinking Gatorade, or dunking it on the head coach after a win (or an almost win in Rich Brooks' case) has become a part of sport culture that will surely not change anytime soon.

The creator of the symbol of sport is dead at age 80.

Dr. Robert Cade, a man with a passion for science and studebakers, was the creator of what would become a multi-million dollar franchise. While his relationship with the University of Florida was strained over the years, mostly because of the invention of the drink, Cade was a professor at the university and continued teaching and experimenting until just a few months ago.

Here's to Dr. Cade, a true legend of sport.

Posted by bmiraski at 2:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 23, 2007

Big XII - Week 13 Preview

Looking back on the season, if you would have told me that neither of the participants in the Big XII championship would be decided until the last week of the season, I would have thought you were crazy.

Then again, if you have been following my picks this season, I might have to say the same thing (9-20-1). Like Guy Morriss, I definitely took my lumps this season.

So, how does the championship picture shake out? In the North, the winner of the Kansas – Missouri game will go to the championship. Simple, yes? The South, not so much.

If Oklahoma and Texas both win Saturday, then Oklahoma will be the South division champion. If only one of the two teams wins, then that team represents the division.

The big mess happens if both teams manage to lose, dropping them into a three-way tie with Oklahoma State. That means having to go to the massive Big XII tiebreaker procedure. And with that, it takes until the fifth criteria before a winner is determined.

That criteria: The team with the best ranking in the BCS standings will go to the championship. It could be late on Sunday before anyone knows who is playing on December 1.

At least we won’t be choosing out of a hat, like my picks this week.

Nebraska (+4.5) at Colorado - Winner goes to a bowl game, maybe. Colorado covers at home.

Kansas State (even) at Fresno State - Seven wins for Fresno is a bigger deal than six for Kansas State. Bulldogs win at home, keeping Kansas State from bowling. Serves them right for being crushed by Nebraska.

Oklahoma State (+11) at Oklahoma - Oklahoma is banged up, slowing their offense. Sooners win, but don’t cover.

Texas (-5.5) at Texas A&M - Dennis Franchione’s last game. Fittingly, it’s a loss. Longhorns win big.

Kansas (-2.5) vs. Missouri in Kansas City - The worst thing for the Big XII in the BCS would be a Missouri win. Of course, that is exactly what will happen. Missouri wins in an upset.

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. You can read the full preview for week 13 here. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 9:00 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 9, 2007

Big XII - Week 11 Preview

“Ben, since Steve the Monkey went 2-0-1 last week, do you have any reason to believe you might be asked back next season?”

“I’m going to let the powers that be make those decisions.”

“Are you thinking of resigning? You did pick Nebraska to win the Big XII North.”

“That term resignation is not in our vocabulary.”

“Come on, Ben, a buyout is in the works, isn’t it? They can get the monkey a lot cheaper than you.”

“I am not going to get into the rumor game with you guys. Can we just talk about the games?”

Kansas (-6) at Oklahoma State - Kansas’s season has been an anomaly – wins on the road, undefeated, national championship talk. Oklahoma State has something to prove after blowing last week’s game against Texas late. Total points in this game might hit triple digits. Kansas wins, but Oklahoma State keeps it close.

Texas A&M (+19.5) at Missouri - The general consensus after the last couple of weeks is that the Aggie team has quit on the season. Missouri is just getting started. Chase Daniel should repeat as offensive player of the week. Take Missouri to cover.

Texas Tech (+6.5) at Texas - Texas Tech likes to scare Texas. The biggest thing on the line here is positioning for bowl bids. Expect a shootout and Texas needing to make another comeback late to win. Take the Red Raiders to beat the spread.

Likely Winners: Colorado (Iowa State), Kansas, Kansas State (Nebraska), Missouri, Oklahoma (Baylor), Texas

Upset potential: Oklahoma State over Kansas, Texas Tech over Texas

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. You can read the full preview for week 11 here. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 4:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The MRI Says...11/9/07

Pat White almost fumbled himself out of Heisman contention last night. Ball control problems always seem to plague the West Virginia Mountaineers and last night was no exception. Add in the multiple penalties they received when about to get Louisville off the field and you had a recipe for disaster.

However, after Louisville tied the game late, West Virginia was able to drive and put themselves in position to win the game with a late touchdown. Pat White still deserves a lot of the credit for the win. He moved the ball more with his legs than his arms, but he still was the leader on the field.

While you can't fault him for one of the fumbles (he took a massive hit that they replayed just so that the sound could be heard. He left the field with what looked like a minor concussion.), he still needs to hold onto the ball a little better during his runs. Of the great running quarterbacks, this somewhat reminds me of Michael Vick, who would hold the ball out for all to swipe at. White might not have the speed that Vick had in college, and therefore he gets hit a lot more often. Holding that ball might make the difference between a win and a loss for West Virginia.

And so with the win last night, and one later in the BYU game, the MRI goes 2-0. That brings the week's record so far to 3-1. A nice start. Can we hold on? Looks from the games tonight that we might have a repeat of last night.

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan - Another mediocre MAC game. What is the point? Bowling Green rolled over Akron last week in this spot. Eastern Michigan is nowhere near as good as Akron. The MRI likes BGSU.
MRI Says: Bowling Green Confidence Factor: 70.77%

Rutgers at Army - Oh Rutgers, how we thought we knew you. You did everyone the big favor of beating South Florida. But now, two weeks, later, you have lost to West Virginia and UConn. What is going on in Piscataway? Isn't the pandemonium still there? Don't you want to go to a bowl? Oh, wait, you scheduled Army. Ok, this should be an easy one then. Count on Ray Rice hitting 200 yards rushing, and Rutgers taking this one home with a voictory, even on the road. The MRI agrees.
MRI Says: Rutgers Confidence Factor: 76.96%

This Week: 3-1
Season Record: 242 - 96, 71.60%
Lifetime Record: 1604 - 670, 70.54%

All rankings are the current MRI ranking of the team

The MRI is a computer football ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 12:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 8, 2007

The MRI Says...11/8/07

Akron wasn't nice enough to play along and let Ohio win last night. Ohio was shooting to still have a chance at 7-5 overall which would have put them in line for a number of at-large bowl openings. Remember, there is a new-ish rule which requires bowls who can not fill their automatic bowl bids to take 7-5 teams before 6-6 teams.

Of course, now they need to win their last game to just get to 6-6 which won't guarantee them of anything past their final regular season game. It almost guarantees that they won't be bowling at all since there will likely be an excess of teams from the Big XII who could fill in the bowls. Let's be honest. More people would go see Kansas State at 6-6 than Ohio.

Two games tonight, and both are important.

TCU at BYU - BYU could have been in for a special season, if it only weren't for UCLA and Tulsa. Heck, they would have been respected more than Hawaii with the schedule they played. So, this season becomes an "if only". I mentioned in my AP vote this week that BYU was one of the teams I considered for the #25 spot on my ballot. I wanted to wait however until this game. I wanted to see if BYU could beat the team which was picked to win the conference, and do it with that team at full strength. It also doesn't help that BYU has only had 5 days since their last game. This will be a test for sure. The MRI likes the Cougars, but they fall into one of those strange bands in the history of the MRI with a dip in the confidence factor. Maybe that is appropriate with everything that BYU will be going against tonight.
MRI Says: BYU Confidence Factor: 68.31%

Louisville at #4 West Virginia - I keep having this sneaking suspicion that West Virginia will back its way into the championship game. I don't know why, but the way this season has gone, would it really be so surprising? In order for that to happen they have to get by Louisville who was everyone's cutesy pick for the championship this season.

While there were huge numbers picking USC to face LSU, their was that contingent that thought Louisville had what it would take to make it. On my side, the only thing I predicted is that we wouldn't have a Big XII team playing there. That was assuming we would have a couple of big name undefeated teams at this point. We don't. Every team that has a zero in the loss column would be one of those teams that would have to actually have their names on their jerseys because otherwise no one would know who they were.

And so that brings us back to Louisville who has no defense, and West Virginia who has just enough defense to probably beat down whatever shred of dignity that Louisville still has remaining after their fall from grace.

Pat White is #3 on my Heisman ballot right now, not so much because of the numbers, which are good, but because of his leadership. With White on the field, West Virginia should win every game they play. In their sole loss this season, White had to spend time on the bench with an injury and you see what happened.

If Louisville doesn't stomp all over Pat White in some fluke, this is West Virginia's game. And that will probably mean a jump in their MRI score, maybe enough to get them to #2 overall. The MRI likes West Virginia too with a massive confidence number.
MRI Says: West Virginia Confidence Factor: 94.39%

This Week: 1-1
Season Record: 240 - 96, 71.43%
Lifetime Record: 1602 - 670, 70.51%

All rankings are the current MRI ranking of the team

The MRI is a computer football ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 5:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 7, 2007

The MRI Says...11/7/07

Hey, there was a football game last night. As I worked to put together this year's basketball MRI, which is expanded to 340 teams by the way, I totally missed the fact that the MAC decided to start their week long drive to get some television time.

And luckily I noticed the game on television a bit later. Central Michigan and Western Michigan were matched up very evenly. Central Michigan, with a win, could clinch the West Division of the MAC. With that as a background, you could imagine the game would be close, and after three quarters, the score was 10-7 in favor of the Chippewas.

It did not stay that way.

The teams exploded for 48 points in the final quarter, including multiple scores from both teams in the last five minutes. The winning touchdown was scored by Dan LeFevour, the same Dan LeFevour who was selected last year as the Heisman-like performance twice as a freshman. It took him two tries and two replayed plays before his quarterback sneak touchdown was put on the board with 18 seconds left.

Western Michigan's attempt to duplicate the Trinity 15-lateral play didn't come through on their drive, although they did give it a great shot.

I will throw Dan LeFevour's name into the hat for the Non-BCS auto qualifier, who should be considered for the Heisman award next year, as a junior quarterback. While he won't get a serious look, maybe until his senior year, he should at least be tracked with the big boys who stay around until next season.

Another MAC game this Wednesday. Let's see what the MRI says.

Ohio at Akron - Ohio features the #2 scorer in the country in Kalvin McRae. McRae has rolled over opponents for 1200 yards, and 18 total touchdowns this season. Given how the MAC has just beaten themselves up this season, with no real outstanding team (although Central Michigan has been a beast in conference), this won't be a slam dunk for Ohio, just because they can run the ball. Look for it to be another close MAC game. The MRI agrees to not put all your eggs in one basket.
MRI Says: Ohio Confidence Factor: 53.76%

This Week: 1-0
Season Record: 240 - 95, 71.64%
Lifetime Record: 1602 - 669, 70.54%

All rankings are the current MRI ranking of the team

The MRI is a computer football ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 2:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 6, 2007

Kirk Bohls Ponders A&M's Next Coach

With all the rumors about a Dennis Franchione buyout in the mill now, it is time to look ahead to who will be patrolling the sidelines next season. A school like A&M probably wouldn't have any issues filling their head coaching position, but this year will not be normal.

There are potential openings at Michigan, LSU (Les Miles to Michigan), Arkansas, and Nebraska (almost definitely) to contend with. And that doesn't count any more openings which might trickle open as the dominoes fall (Tommy Tuberville seems to be at the top of everyone's list).

So with that all going, Kirk Bohls of the Austin American Statesman thought it would be worthwhile to make some recommendations on who should be at least called in to interview for the A&M opening.

His list, on which I am guessing at his order of interest:

Tommy Tuberville (although a $6 million price tag might be a little steep after the buyout)
Steve Spurrier
Butch Davis
Chris Petersen (Boise State HC)
Will Muschamp (Auburn DC, Will anyone be able to understand him in Texas?)
Mike Sherman (Texas OC)
Dan Mullen (Florida OC)
Charlie Strong (Florida Asst. Head Coach, Co-Defensive Coordinator)

I would guess that given A&M ability to NOT move the ball this season, most people would like to see some semblance of offense come to College Station. I only rate Muschamp as #5 because if you can steal a defense that has been at the top of the game for the last four years at least in my recent memory, I think you have something. This is the defense that has shut down Florida the last two seasons. No one else can say that.

Bohls does have a do not disturb sign on a couple of names:

Jeff Tedford (Apparently collapsing teams are not welcome in Aggie-land. Go figure.)
Gary Kubiak (Houston Texas HC)
Bo Pelini

Pelini on the DND list shocks me. When any coaching vacancy even is hinted at, Pelini's name is usually at the top of the list for candidates. With the LSU job potentially going to open, or with Nebraska needing that high profile defensive mind, perhaps it is right for A&M to steer clear. The price tag will be big. And if Bohls is correct, and Pelini would slack on the recruiting, well, maybe you don't want him around, especially not in Texas where you have a wealth of talent to choose from. You don't want kids getting scared off by a gruff coach.

Posted by bmiraski at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 2, 2007

The MRI Says...11/2/07

Normally the MRI Says article doesn't come with graphics but this one was too good to pass up. Last night, when I said it would come down to a field goal, I meant it. Meant it in the way that I meant Georgia Tech only scored a field goal, losing 27-3. When your quarterbacks combine for 5 interceptions, that is not a recipe for victory, at least not normally. And so the MRI lost.

What America got was probably one of the bigger laughs of the night. A few of Virginia Tech's jerseys were stolen prior to the game, so as you can see, a few players had to play in borrowed jerseys from Georgia Tech. They blacked out the names and the Russell logo (the Hokies are a Nike squad), and wrote their names on the back. At least they were wearing road whites. This would have looked really ridiculous if the quarterbacks (since both had their jerseys taken) were in Georgia Tech Yellow. It would have been like practice jerseys.

My favorite part of all this was that the players tried to draw the Nike swoosh logo on the jerseys. And they did, but got it backwards. Oops. Five bucks says that they did it while looking in a mirror.

So with the opening loss for the week, the computer has three games to try and redeem itself with. Let's see where those lead. Oh no, not the MAC!

Temple at Ohio - How 'bout them Owls? They have won three straight and in the very blah MAC, they are right in the race in the East Division. Could you imagine how deflating this must be for the MAC? This was a Temple team that was consistently batted around by the Big East and forced them out. This was a Temple team that had won all of three games in the three years, including one year where they were winless. Now they join the MAC and have three wins, all in conference. Ouch. Tonight is another game they may be able to take in the MAC which would be a big score for Temple and their coach Al Golden.
MRI Says: Ohio Confidence Factor: 68.16%

Akron at Bowling Green - Two more mediocre teams meet from the MAC in another Friday night contest. The computer thinks that Bowling Green should win. You should too. They beat Temple, while the Zips lost to the Owls.
MRI Says: Bowling Green Confidence Factor: 73.26%

Nevada at New Mexico State - Nevada, in the middle of turmoil on campus after three men were killed at a party, will travel to New Mexico State to get a little time away and concentrate on football. While a shooting at a campus party might not normally affect a team, when there are team members at that party, and the brother of one of the players might be involved, it definitely will.

The good news for Nevada is that New Mexico State is a huge passing team, and Nevada has one of the better pass defenses in the country. While they may not have many interceptions, they are only giving up 180 yards through the air per game. That means that the Aggies (of NM St.) will have to try and run the ball to be successful.

The MRI doesn't think they can do it.
MRI Says: Nevada Confidence Factor: 55.56%

This Week: 0-1
Season Record: 197 - 83, 70.36%
Lifetime Record: 1559 - 657, 70.35%

All rankings are the current MRI ranking of the team

The MRI is a computer football ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 12:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Big XII - Week 10 Preview

In their pursuit to be the most mediocre conference in America, the Big XII keeps proving that beyond Oklahoma, maybe Missouri, and Kansas of all teams, they have nothing to offer us as a real team. While 9 teams may likely get into bowl games, don’t count on a stellar performance from the “other” six, which only makes my record picking games in this conference apropos.

0-fer last week means that I am 6-15 on the year. A monkey could do better.

In fact, this week, Steve the Monkey is going to pick the games.

Texas A&M (+21) at Oklahoma - My favorite quote this week was from Michael Bennett, Martellus “Not a Crook” Bennett’s brother, after Texas A&M again managed almost zero offense, this time against Kansas.

"I'm not impressed,'' said Texas A&M defensive end Michael Bennett, who went as far as to say the Aggies would beat the Jayhawks in the Big 12 championship game.

Maybe he missed how hard that will be, after losing last week and this week facing Oklahoma’s run defense. Dennis Franchione will likely avoid running the ball again which is not a winning strategy for the Aggies. Steve the Monkey says, “EEEEEK!!” He is going with Oklahoma to cover.

Nebraska (+18.5) at Kansas - Kansas is on the map now, albeit with a few more hurdles remaining. The first of those is Nebraska. It seems that Tom Osborne won’t worry about the result of the game. He is already looking for a new coach based on some quotes in a TV interview. Steve the Monkey says, “OOK! OOK!” He likes the Jayhawks to cover.

Texas (-3) at Oklahoma State - America’s coach Mike Gundy has over 50 Lone Star Staters on his team. Most of them have a reason to get back at the Longhorns and their coaching staff. Steve the Monkey says, “ARRRRRRROOOGUH!” He likes Oklahoma State to pull the upset.

Likely Winners: Kansas State (Iowa State), Kansas, Missouri (Colorado), Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech (Baylor)

Likely Losers: Colorado, Iowa State, Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M

Upset potential: Oklahoma State over Texas

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. You can read the full preview for week 10 here. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 10:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

November 1, 2007

The MRI Says...11/1/07

Last week was able to get the MRI back on track. The computer was one of the top experts last week, and it got off to a very good start earlier in the week with a perfect record as we entered the weekend.

I am excited for this week as I think the computer has a lot of really good match-ups so that it can lead the standings again (and beat down those stupid other computers who "pick" early in the season. I don't understand how you could even think your predictions are anything more than name based at that point.)

This week starts the same way as last week, with Virginia Tech on Thursday night. I think they must sign their own contract with ESPN during the off-season to make sure that they play at least 4 games in prime time every year. Let's see if the MRI thinks they will collapse in the final three minutes again.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech - I was at this game a few years back and it was a total blowout. Last week though showed that Virginia Tech without Tyrod Taylor can't really generate too much offense. For some reason, Branden Ore just hasn't come to play this year, and Sean Glennon is not the answer despite what should be a great throwing arm.

So can they beat Georgia Tech with offensive problems? It is a possibility since Georgia Tech has their own offensive problems, given the loss of Tashard Choice.

This will be a huge defensive game and I think it will likely be one that could come down to a field goal. The MRI is predicting that Georgia Tech is almost 3-1 to win the game.
MRI Says: Georgia TechConfidence Factor: 73.68%

This Week: 0-0
Season Record: 197 - 82, 70.61%
Lifetime Record: 1559 - 656, 70.38%

All rankings are the current MRI ranking of the team

The MRI is a computer football ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 3:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

QBs Hobbling

Given some of the hits I have seen this season, I am surprised more quarterbacks haven't been knocked out for the year. It seems that the injuries and the brain damage from all the hits is really taking its toll this week.

We saw last week what a difference at quarterback can make for Virginia Tech. Without their new speedy signal caller, held out because of an ankle injury that they didn't want to risk in the rain, Tech wasn't able to quite get enough ahead to stop Boston College.

Lost in the past week was Sam Keller, at Nebraska, which just adds to Bill Callahan's woes. Now he has Joe Ganz to lead the team. Yes, "Who?!" is exactly what I said.

Kyle Wright is injured in Miami (not that it matters much this year), and Xavier Lee is suspended for Florida State.

Also lost, Ryan Perrilloux at LSU, which should cause a little rejoicing in Alabama. Perrilloux wasn't lost to injury though, unless a brain fart is an injury, and it should be considered one. Seriously, I think big time college programs should hire a group like the secret service to just keep tabs on their star players.

Unfortunately for us, injuries might affect the outcome of Oregon and Arizona State this weekend. Rudy Carpenter practiced this week, but he still has an injured thumb. It would be a shame if it affected his throws this weekend. Of course, Dennis Erickson will probably just pound the ball about 100 times like he did last week if the passing game isn't working.

Posted by bmiraski at 2:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

In Case You Missed It...

The first coach fired this year was not Bill Callahan despite his AD hinting strongly in a television interview that a new coaching staff was on the way.

The first coach fired was not Dennis Franchione who seems to have tried everything to get fired from giving out trade secrets, to refusing to run bowling ball Jorvorskie Lane on every play.

No, the first coach fired was Phill Bennett at SMU. You really have to feel for a guy who took over a dreadful program like he did. He did manage to get back to 5-6 two years ago, and 6-6 last season, although that didn't lead to any bowl appearances for the Mustangs. Apparently slipping backwards to 1-7 was a little much for the school to take.

Bennett will coach out the rest of the season, although the only thing he may have to look forward to in that is the game with Rice on November 10. It may be his 18th and last win at SMU, and the only game that the Mustangs will be favored in the rest of the season.

Posted by bmiraski at 1:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 31, 2007

How Over Rated is Hawaii?

I admit it. I have Hawaii in my top 25. According to most bloggers out there, this is a sin.

Why? Because even according to the MRI, Hawaii has the worst strength of schedule in the nation.

That's right, they are 120 out of 120. If I ranked Division 1-AA teams, they would probably be even worse. Even Western Kentucky, who I am including in the rankings this year, and who has played 4 non-1-A teams already, has a better schedule strength.

Still, my computer seems to think they have done well enough against that schedule to be the 12th best team in the country. It shouldn't be surprising. They have blown out most of the teams that they have played. Remember, this is tempered by the cap I put on margin of victory, but they have been doing about as well as they could against the teams they have played.

But really, how bad is the schedule? To judge, I pulled out one of the tricks I use for judging how well a basketball team does against their schedule to make the tournament. Basically it is a way of saying "Well, anyone could win 20 games with a schedule like that". Except there has only been 8 games so far this season.

Given Hawaii's schedule so far this season, and their "performance" over that schedule, played over time, Hawaii would be expected to have won, on average, 6.7 games.

So with some rounding, they would on average go 7-1 with the schedule they had. That sounds about right. They had one close overtime win over San Jose State, which could have been that expected loss. In fact, that was the game they had the second worst chance to win. They also had the close win over Louisiana Tech which could easily have gone the other direction. Either way, they seem to have done a little better than they would have been expected.

Now, what if an average team played Hawaii schedule? An average team, according to the MRI is a cross between TCU and Fresno State. Both aren't terrible teams, but neither has exactly blown away the competition this year.

If an average team would have played Hawaii's schedule to date, they would have, on average, won 5.8 games. Rounding again, that is on average 6-2. So, basically, any team, given Hawaii's schedule could be expected to do about as well as Hawaii has done this season. One of the most important notes for the average team is that they still would have been favored in every game this season. While they don't have the same percentage chance of winning as Hawaii, they are still likely more than half the time in all cases to come away with the victory.

I am sure everyone is wondering what that means for Hawaii the rest of the way. Their schedule strength actually improves over the rest of the season, although they play most of the games remaining at home. Percentage-wise, Hawaii is still favored to win all the games remaining, with the worst percentage being only around 70%. So, with a team of Hawaii's strength, on average, against their entire schedule, they would win, 9.9 games, or about 10, going 10-2. 12-0 is not such a leap from there.

However, an average team would struggle in the remaining four games. An average team would be expected to only win about 2 games the rest of the way, and finish with an average record of 8-4. That is really saying something when an average team, with a normal schedule, would be expected to finish about 6-6, and they would actually improve by 2 games, a 33% increase in wins, if only they lucked into Hawaii's schedule. Heck, an 8-4 record in a conference like the WAC or Mountain West would be in line for a nice bowl game. Normal average teams are lucky to get to the Armed Forces Bowl.

For a laugh, I plugged Hawaii into LSU's schedule so far this season (and the average team also). LSU is 7-1 in their first 8 games. Hawaii, with the MRI of their team so far would, on average, win 5.5 games out of the eight. So, they could be anywhere between 5-3 and out of any running and 6-2 which is still far back in the pack this season.

Over the course of the entire season, Hawaii would be expected to win 8.4 games or 8-4, or 9-3 on the season. A good season, but definitely not a season which would warrant National Championship consideration. That might not even warrant BCS bowl consideration most years (unless your name is Notre Dame).

How would an average team do with LSU's schedule? So far this season, they would be expected to have won about 3.6 games. That is a 3-5 or 4-4 record. In the SEC, that might be enough to have the boosters calling for your dismissal. Over the full season, it doesn't get much better with the final record averaging out to 5.6 wins, or somewhere around 5-7 or 6-6. That is middle of the pack at best, and at worst, home for the holidays.

So what does that really say about the strength of Hawaii? They are in all likelihood an "above average" team. They aren't a great team, like an LSU, Ohio State, Oregon, or even a West Virginia. They are barely out of the range of +1 standard deviation with their MRI score, and in any other league, with any other schedule, they would likely fall back into the realm of the mortals, as opposed to their lofty undefeated status.

Maybe I should consider that next time I put together my ballot.

Posted by bmiraski at 5:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

October 26, 2007

A Cautionary Tale About Top Ranked Recruiting Classes

With all the talk about Notre Dame's highly ranked recruiting classes, and the lack luster results, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at another program which had pretty high marks (and expectations).

The culprit? Nebraska, now home to the lamest lame duck coach on the board.

I think the most telling paragraphs are these:

"Take a look at the 2005 class, which Rivals.com ranked fifth nationally. They would be juniors or third-year sophomores today, but of the 30 recruits only nine became starters. Nine transferred, five are backups, four are part-time starters, two were academic casualties and one stuck with track and field.

Chris Brooks, a top-15 national receiver out of St. Louis, has caught one pass. Defensive end David Harvey of La Plata, Md., hasn't played a down yet. This means either Callahan missed on many recruits, or he has done a lousy job developing them."

It isn't just getting the kids in the door which is important. It is then teaching them the game so that they develop into the stars that they were expected to be out of high school. So far, I haven't seen the commitment to developing the younger players at Notre Dame by Charlie Weis (edit: Apparently, I am not the only one who sees this lack of talent development. Jonathan Chait at Slate calls Weis a fraud) . Maybe he should start studying the situation in Nebraska.

This article originally appeared on the FanIQ Blog.

Posted by bmiraski at 5:00 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

The MRI Says...10/26/07

Last night showed us that miracles can happen. Boston College's dreams of a National Championship stayed alive with a comeback win against Virginia Tech.

For three quarters, the rain soaked the Eagles' chances and Matt Ryan. When the rains finally let up, the country got to see why Ryan is being considered for the Heisman trophy. Or, they would have had the World Series not been going on.

Ryan made an amazing pass on the run to Andre Callender in the back of the end zone, over two Hokie defenders to grab the go ahead score with 11 seconds remaining. It was the type of pass, as the commentators said, that NFL scouts drool over. It was the sort of pass that wins you trophies, especially ones with a famous pose.

So, maybe Boston College is for real. Maybe some of the #2 over rated talk will stop. It certainly was not the outcome I expected last night (although all of Virginia Tech's losses on Thursday night have come against BC). But it was the outcome that the MRI predicted, albeit with a very tiny margin of confidence.

The MRI also predicted correctly the other game of the night, and got some help from Air Force's 5 turnovers. And with that good start to the week, time to look at what the MRI says about tonight's game.

#16 Boise State at Fresno State - For years, this has been the game in the WAC. It has supposedly been the game where Fresno State would be stepping up to stop Boise State's run to another WAC title. And yet, it hasn't happened.

This year doesn't seem to be headed toward a different result. Fresno State's defense has been fairly porous and that is a bad sign when you go up against the Boise State offense. The good news for Fresno is that the game is at home, so they don't have to contend with the curse of the Blue Turf which seems to plague the WAC. And Ian Johnson, the man whose name surfaces in Heisman talk and then disappears again just as quickly is expected to be out with a bruised hip. However, it still doesn't seem that the Bulldogs have the guns to run with Boise State.

The best bet for Fresno may be in keeping Boise State's offense off the field. They can do this with their running game led by the two headed attack of Ryan Mathews and Lonyae Miller. If that rushing attack is going, maybe they can control the clock long enough to win the the game. Maybe.
MRI Says: Boise State Confidence Factor: 53.97%

This Week: 2-0
Season Record: 159 - 69, 69.74%
Lifetime Record: 1521 - 643, 70.29%

All rankings are the current MRI ranking of the team

The MRI is a computer football ranking system. It has been picking games since 2003. Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 12:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Big XII - Week 9 Preview

I sort of feel Like Dennis Franchione at this point. With the picks I have been making, I should totally lose my “job”. But I won one game, my “Pink Slip Bowl”, to save me from another shut out last week. With a 1-2 week, I “improve” to 6-12. No more quotes. Let’s go to my ridiculous picks in week 9.

Kansas (-2.5) at Texas A&M - Martellus Bennett is not a bank robber. He resists the several offers he has to fill that job. But he is a crook at heart. Bennett steals a touchdown against Kansas and A&M makes Franchione the most successful coach who is going to get fired at the end of this season. Can you believe that the Aggies will be a half game ahead in the Big XII South if they win and Franchione is still an endangered species in College Station? A&M pulls the upset and ends this Kansas craziness.

Nebraska (+20.5) at Texas - Nebraska has one of the worst run defenses in the nation. Texas has an average running game at best, and even then they can hold onto the ball. Something has to give here and I don’t even think Bill Callahan’s players are trying for him at this point. Take Texas to cover.

Iowa State (+28.5) at Missouri - Iowa State has screwed with me for the past two weeks. Missouri can’t blow this like the Sooners and Longhorns did. I mean, this can’t be like last year’s game, can it? Tigers win and cover to take the lead in the North.

Likely Winners: Kansas State (Baylor), Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech (Colorado)

Likely Losers: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska, Baylor

Upset potential: Kansas over Texas A&M

Ben Miraski writes for MRISports.com and is a featured blogger on FanIQ. His Big XII preview appears weekly on Blogcritics.org as part of their NCAA Tailgate. You can read the full preview for week 9 here. Readers can contact Ben at bmiraski@mrisports.com

Posted by bmiraski at 10:25 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack